Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1065

#351 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 12:08:43 AM | message detail
Heavy's issue is that prime Valve Time (heh) was a year or two ago. I think people have moved on from TF2 recently, especially with Valve really lacking in content these days.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#352 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 12:10:32 AM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFAMTBxJ8yM

Heavy was also in Poker Night, and when 2 came out recently I think the first was free for a while. Nobody actually plays these games but all the videos have decent views.

Really, Valve is so good with marketing TF2 and making all the cross-game promos and making it free to play and reminding everyone it exists every five seconds that I wouldn't be surprised if Heavy is the "I don't know the other two so I'll vote for the one I recognize" character in the poll.

I might be grasping at straws here but I think Heavy is stronger now than he ever was. His original fanbase still loves him and TF2 gets bigger and bigger instead of fading with age.
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~Zen
#353 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 12:12:16 AM | message detail
No way KP did you see the player surge when Steam Trading Cards were introduced

people are NUTS for hats and crap. Absolutely bonkers.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/pc

Still #4! I mean, you can argue that StarCraft was #1 when Kerrigan/Vincent happened, but TF2 characters are way more beloved than Kerrigan. And we aren't looking to topple Vincent, just Chrom.
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~Zen
#354 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/16/2013 12:13:23 AM | message detail
Valve is good with marketing and Steam, though it unfortunately seems like they've forgotten how to release video games.
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#355 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/16/2013 12:13:33 AM | message detail
This is hilarious.

The victory was always to get Chester in, anyway.
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#356 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 12:14:13 AM | message detail
I honestly don't think GameFAQs cares at all about something like Steam Trading Cards or hats! GameFAQs may be stupid and possibly racist, but they appreciate actual content more than anything else.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#357 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/16/2013 12:15:29 AM | message detail
Alright, well if Fire Emblem and TF2 fans are also unsure, then I'll just bank that. I'm reasonably confident in a Boss win, so I'd much rather take a "safe" +3 than go 50/50 on a +6/0 split.
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#358 | AppreciateTrees | Posted 7/16/2013 12:16:07 AM | message detail
How much will Heavy/The Boss hurt each other, if at all?
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#359 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 12:16:34 AM | message detail
Hmmm, you're probably right. Even though I'm posting all this I still have Chrom > Heavy in my expert bracket. It just shocks me there's no debate at all. I think there's still a small chance for an upset, but nobody is even talking about it! Someone will bring it up and the response will just be "ehhh Heavy" like he doesn't matter.

He does matter! Heavy is a thing! A thing people love!
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~Zen
#360 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 12:18:14 AM | message detail
I don't know if Heavy/Boss will hurt each other. TF2 is just so silly. I don't see much crossover with TF2. In theory TF2 crosses over with EVERYTHING because it's got such a huge player base and is free-to-play. I know loads of uber-nerds who play FE and TF2. Heavy might be slightly Pac-Man at this point, even.
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~Zen
#361 | FFDragon | Posted 7/16/2013 12:19:13 AM | message detail
I like how an update of 8 votes boosts Chester's percentage.
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#362 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 12:19:37 AM | message detail
I think it's because Heavy has a way to go. He got 57-43d by Roxas and that was with 4chan rallying for Heavy at the time. I think he'll be stronger too, maybe he could even win, but he has to boost a good amount and I don't think GameFAQs is *that* much bigger on TF2 than it was in the past. This site is deathly afraid of PC games.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#363 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/16/2013 12:20:43 AM | message detail
Oh, right, I forgot about the Roxas thing. Maybe he is pretty far from a win.

I still think that small chance is there, though! I'm not sold on FE being strong at all yet. I'm hoping Heavy at least outs Chrom as a great big phony.
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~Zen
#364 | CybrMonkey | Posted 7/16/2013 12:22:34 AM | message detail
This is the first time I'm actually mad that we don't have bars. 3.88% would look so great.
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Not so Gr8 anymore.
#365 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 12:25:30 AM | message detail
Giving this one more update before turning in. COME ON CHESTER, 0 VOTES YOU CAN DO IT
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#366 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 12:27:17 AM | message detail
These 8 vote updates are brutal. Not only does it totally ruin the 0 vote watch, but it even causes Chester to increase in percentage!
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#367 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 12:27:37 AM | message detail
bleh

if Chester hasn't had a 0 vote update by the time I wake up I'll be severely disappointed in all of you
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#368 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 12:30:19 AM | message detail | (edited)
The Boss > Chrom > Heavy

jRPG > FPS

The Boss wins though.
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#369 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 12:30:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
The Joy
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#370 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/16/2013 12:32:19 AM | message detail
I think 8 vote updates are pretty cool, considering he's a Board 8 character.
#371 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 12:32:54 AM | message detail
The prediction % for this match should have everyone picking Mewtwo. 99%
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#372 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 12:33:55 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
The prediction % for this match should have everyone picking Mewtwo. 99%

Character Battle IX Spoilers
It won't be that high.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#373 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 12:34:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, probably not that high. But it'll be high.
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#374 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/16/2013 12:47:31 AM | message detail
3.88
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#375 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 12:49:11 AM | message detail
Also, I don't understand where that "bad performances from FFVII characters mean nothing in the first round" is coming from. Cloud performed badly in Round 1 last time and sure enough, he had trouble with characters he would have 60-40'd with no problem as late as 2007 or 2008. Sephiroth had things even worse.

Not to mention Vincent himself did well in Round 1 last time. This time, not so much.

It's still really sad that Vincent could end up being an overhyped dud by the time this is all said and done. He never got a fair chance to do much damage in any contest aside from his debut and both 4-ways (and I don't even want to count the former), and he really deserved it. Now it's not very likely that he's still the Noble Nine-killer we thought he was based on 4-ways.
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#376 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 12:57:52 AM | message detail
I'm starting to doubt the zero update will come, but at the same time I don't want to miss it and it really could come at any time given the random drops to 2 or 3 votes.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#377 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:06:46 AM | message detail
1 vote update.

Augh, so close.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#378 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/16/2013 1:09:21 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also, I don't understand where that "bad performances from FFVII characters mean nothing in the first round" is coming from. Cloud performed badly in Round 1 last time and sure enough, he had trouble with characters he would have 60-40'd with no problem as late as 2007 or 2008. Sephiroth had things even worse.


Yeah, pretty funny how people reacted after witnessing those results. Cloud and Sephiroth didn't just look bad against fodders, they looked bad against EVERYONE in 2010 (ranging from Ridley, Falcon, etc all the way to Samus and Snake)

If you seriously believe that their round 1 performances won't matter, then think again.
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#379 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 1:30:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
ZinsanityCraze posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also, I don't understand where that "bad performances from FFVII characters mean nothing in the first round" is coming from. Cloud performed badly in Round 1 last time and sure enough, he had trouble with characters he would have 60-40'd with no problem as late as 2007 or 2008. Sephiroth had things even worse.


Yeah, pretty funny how people reacted after witnessing those results. Cloud and Sephiroth didn't just look bad against fodders, they looked bad against EVERYONE in 2010 (ranging from Ridley, Falcon, etc all the way to Samus and Snake)

If you seriously believe that their round 1 performances won't matter, then think again.


Cloud did well against Chris Redfield and Ryu. Maybe not, but I just get the feeling that characters like Ridley, Captain Falcon, and Samus are among those most fit to take advantage of anti-FFVII votes. This could also extend to a general "colorful/cutesy characters overperform against gritty/badass characters" idea where voters try to rebel against the current gaming trend of "real is brown".

But I agree otherwise. Cloud and Sephiroth looked bad against pretty much everyone in 2010, aside from maybe the aforementioned two and Link, and even they're all pushing it since Link gets similarly anti-voted for being an obvious winner, then Cloud would have probably 75-25'd Chris at worst in 2007/8 and 70-30'd Ryu in the same years.

Wait, Cloud did face Ryu in 2007! Twice! Time to go calculate how well he did there.

Round 3 of 2007 - 71.01% (with Marcus Fenix and most notably Auron in the poll)
Round 4 of 2007 - 78.13% (with Samus and Mega Man in the poll)
Round 4 of 2010 - 65.98%

So Cloud did a full 12% worse on Ryu in 2010, though to be fair I suppose [Super] Street Fighter IV probably helped Ryu there. Wow.
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#380 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:30:15 AM | message detail
You need to do worse, Chester. Don't you want to beat Prince of Persia's record?
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#381 | machinegungeek | Posted 7/16/2013 1:31:00 AM | message detail
2 vote update. Now I want to see this happen too....
#382 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:31:50 AM | message detail
It has happened.

The zero update.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#383 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:33:57 AM | message detail
That update also brought Chester under 3.8%

Mewtwo currently at 95.56% on Chester.

96% isn't happening I'm pretty sure, but Chester has been dropping with some consistency since the TOTAL DOMINATION ZONE started up, so maybe sub-3.7% is.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#384 | raytan7585 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:34:50 AM | message detail
No votes update for Chester. Glorious!
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#385 | Korayashi | Posted 7/16/2013 1:35:58 AM | message detail
That was pretty glorious. Next level weakness.
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#386 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/16/2013 1:36:35 AM | message detail
I'll always remember this day.
#387 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/16/2013 1:36:46 AM | message detail
I want a second 0 vote update.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#388 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 1:39:11 AM | message detail
There's also been some pretty hilarious X-Stats shenanigans going on. Chester just got a 4 vote update but technically improved against Mewtwo by the X-Stats. (Though it wouldn't be seen behind the rounding)
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#389 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 1:44:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Cloud vs. Samus!

2004 - 59.01%
2006 - 75.39% (with Link and Mario there to SFF Samus and Sephiroth and Snake there to deal minimal damage to Cloud)
2007 Round 4 - 58.87% (with Ryu and Mega Man in the poll)
2007 Round 5 - 62.91% (with Link to SFF Samus and Sephiroth to hurt Cloud)
2010 - 52.81%

I'm going to make a guess that Samus would still break 45% on Cloud this year at least and may even improve on her 2010 result. I just get the feeling that Nintendo cares more for Samus than Square Enix...bad idea with that idiotic FFXIII-2 DLC lol. At the very least they probably both fall by an equal amount, with Samus maybe decreasing more. I do, however, get the feeling that Samus was overperforming due to Other M hype and the Prime Trilogy being released not too far before (and don't give me that crap about no one caring about the latter - makes perfect sense for a between-contest rerelease to be the reason Metroid Prime did so much better in GOTD than in BGE2).

Also I'm going to put out a theory regarding another character - is it possible that Master Chief could undergo Pokemon/Crash Bandicoot syndrome and not be as anti-voted this year as he was last due to the Halo series not being as big as it was in 2003-2010 and the fact that Halo isn't even the big name in its own genre anymore? I'm pretty much banking on something similar happening with Spyro...
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#390 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/16/2013 1:52:41 AM | message detail
No, because Chief just got a terrible game. Nobody loves Halo 4 like they loved 1-3. Like I said for other things before, it is liked...but not well-liked.

Also, are you really gonna discount the 4ways factor completely? Really?
#391 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 2:05:59 AM | message detail
Uh Halo 4 was received pretty well actually. Less hype than the other games but it was a quiet hit. Honestly feel Halo 2's and to a lesser extent 3's reaction were more mixed than 4's.
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#392 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 2:16:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
Considering how the Halo games performed better (or at least not a whole lot worse) in GOTD than in BGE2, why not?

Also the first thing that comes to mind for me when I think of Halo 4 is IGN giving it a 9.8/10, and the fact that shares some development staff members with Metroid Prime. But yeah it has an 87 on Metacritic and seems to have divided both critics and gamers alike.

I still feel that Chief could be seen as a relic of a bygone era and benefit the same way Crash Bandicoot did. And I have Yuna beating him anyway.

And now I'm reminded of how last time the board picked something to upset Halo the pick backfired, though that was picking the weak link of 3D Mario to upset both Halo 3 AND Halo 1 in GOTD despite Galaxy proving to be the biggest disappointment of the previous games contest so I guess that had more precedent to be idiotic, at least compared to picking a FFX character to upset Chief right after the Xbox One announcement debacle and right before FFX HD?

Problem #2: Yuna has done nothing notable in a contest before outside of the female bracket. Getting 62-38'd by Ganondorf doesn't look nearly as impressive now as it did back then since we know the truth about Ganondorf being a fraud stuck behind Magus in '03. Even otherwise, Alucard at his weakest is literally the strongest character Yuna has ever beaten. At least Ryu Hayabusa had done notable things in contests prior to upsetting Master Chief, and Sub-Zero was a newcomer who had a new game on the day of his upset. Not to mention Hayabusa and Sub-Zero strike me as just the kind of characters Chief would fall to, while Yuna does not.

Really wish I stuck with the Chief "upset".
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#393 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 2:13:57 AM | message detail
There was a zero votes update
He was stuck on 505 votes
#394 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/16/2013 2:14:11 AM | message detail
rofl zero vote
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nt
#395 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/16/2013 2:21:47 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Uh Halo 4 was received pretty well actually. Less hype than the other games but it was a quiet hit. Honestly feel Halo 2's and to a lesser extent 3's reaction were more mixed than 4's.


The fact that it was a "quiet" hit that wasn't hyped a whole lot is pretty much my precedent for labelling the series as having the potential to undergo "Crash Bandicoot syndrome".
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#396 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 7/16/2013 2:29:22 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Uh Halo 4 was received pretty well actually. Less hype than the other games but it was a quiet hit. Honestly feel Halo 2's and to a lesser extent 3's reaction were more mixed than 4's.

The current Halo 4 multiplayer community compared to those of the previous games says otherwise.
#397 | Lopen | Posted 7/16/2013 2:38:54 AM | message detail
Actually the size of the multiplayer community pretty much means it got less hype.
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#398 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/16/2013 2:39:40 AM | message detail
Best match
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#399 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/16/2013 2:40:51 AM | message detail
Chester did it!
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#400 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/16/2013 2:51:22 AM | message detail
I think it's hilarious Chester is quite possibly the worst fodder ever, but is still winning entire countries.

I wish we had Geolocation for Tanner.
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