Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1065

#51 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:41:43 PM | message detail
Oh, the board vote will definitely be unkind to Vincent.

Phoenix being there will prevent Mewtwo from jumping out to any sort of significant lead there. He'll totally dilute Mewtwo's Power Hour.

Also, FFVII isn't good at blowing out fodder anymore. This isn't new to this contest. FFVII proves its worth against characters that are actually strong.
---
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif
http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif
#52 | pjbasis | Posted 7/15/2013 12:42:07 PM | message detail
Phoenix cannot stand up to FFVII or Pokemon
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#53 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:42:38 PM | message detail
yeah he can't stand up to Smash Bros. either
---
http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif
#54 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 12:45:23 PM | message detail
Pfft, Phoenix Wright > Vincent > Mewtwo.
---
Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#55 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/15/2013 12:51:35 PM | message detail
I find it hard to put much stock in this match meaning much of anything for Vincent.

I think next round will tell us how far he's truly dropped.
---
Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#56 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:52:17 PM | message detail
Also, after RacistFAQs yesterday and Xenoblade sucking today, I am afraid literally no one will vote in Clementine/Reyn/Spyro now.
---
"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
#57 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/15/2013 12:54:46 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Phoenix cannot stand up to FFVII or Pokemon


Yeah, if that was all he could muster against Marth he has no chance against FF7 or Pokemon which are forces in this contest.
---
In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#58 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/15/2013 12:55:47 PM | message detail
Obviously people saying that Phoenix can not finish last are just saying it for fun. Don't take it serious.
---
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#59 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:56:38 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm totally serious. People have this weird mindset about Mewtwo that he HAS to be strong because he's MEWTWO.

Dude almost lost to friggin' Midna in a 4-way with an FFVII character once...!
---
http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif
#60 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 12:58:09 PM | message detail
Vincent was losing to Bidoof with Link in the poll...!
#61 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/15/2013 1:00:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Oh, I'm totally serious. People have this weird mindset about Mewtwo that he HAS to be strong because he's MEWTWO.

Dude almost lost to friggin' Midna in a 4-way with an FFVII character once...!


Yeah, Mewtwo is really weird because he doesn't benefit from either the Pokemon association or the SSB boost to the level all the other well-known (aka non-joke) Pokemon perform at. The latter factor (the SSB boost) though I believe results in nominations and not contest results, however.
---
In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#62 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/15/2013 1:02:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
How much would Mewtwo get on KOS-MOS, anyway?

e: Also, if you're going Vincent > Mewtwo right now, would you change your mind if Mewtwo is announced to return to the next Smash Bros?
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#63 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:02:36 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Vincent was losing to Bidoof with Link in the poll...!


For 30 minutes.

Mewtwo struggled with Midna for 24 hours.
---
http://www.gifsoup.com/view/593815/frasier-and-niles-dance-o.gif
#64 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/15/2013 1:02:46 PM | message detail
I estimate Mewtwo putting 58.3% on KOS-MOS
---
Wii Fit Trainer MASTER RACE
#65 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:04:13 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Vincent was losing to Bidoof with Link in the poll...!


For 30 minutes.

Mewtwo struggled with Midna for 24 hours.


I've made a personal rule that I'm going to pretend matches only last 15 minutes and see what funny results I get!
#66 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 1:05:16 PM | message detail
What's Vincent putting on KOS-MOS? Sounds dirty.
---
Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#67 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/15/2013 1:06:18 PM | message detail
I don't think Phoenix would be able to keep Ganondorf under 40%. Mewtwo might have suffered from some SFF too.
---
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#68 | SubDeity | Posted 7/15/2013 1:06:28 PM | message detail
Did anybody post prediction stats from last round yet?
---
"Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican]
Play Der Langrisser.
#69 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:06:37 PM | message detail
Vincent is too busy mourning Lucrecia to put anything on any other girl.
#70 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:07:19 PM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I've made a personal rule that I'm going to pretend matches only last 15 minutes and see what funny results I get!


Take Phoenix to win next round then...!
---
http://img.imgcake.com/nio/26leonpngat.png
http://img.imgcake.com/nio/daigohadoupnguj.png
#71 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/15/2013 1:07:20 PM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
I don't think Phoenix would be able to keep Ganondorf under 40%. Mewtwo might have suffered from some SFF too.


Ganondorf (2010c) VS Phoenix Wright (2010c)

Ganondorf has a strength of 32.91.
Phoenix Wright has a strength of 24.74.

Ganondorf wins with 62.41% of the vote!
A win of 12,757 with 51,389 total votes cast.


With Wright being stronger...!
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#72 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:07:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I've made a personal rule that I'm going to pretend matches only last 15 minutes and see what funny results I get!


Take Phoenix to win next round then...!


If Mewtwo finishes under 115% then I might...~!
#73 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/15/2013 1:10:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, after RacistFAQs yesterday and Xenoblade sucking today, I am afraid literally no one will vote in Clementine/Reyn/Spyro now.


You forgot to discredit Spyro. I think Jak's loss to Draven will do that just fine.

(But, seriously, I think we've more or less confirmed Spyro for the win there.)
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#74 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/15/2013 1:08:14 PM | message detail
Apart from the Midna match (which is kind of wonky because it had Cloud, which may in turn have boosted Midna as a "non-Cloud Zelda rep"), Mewtwo has always looked very respectable against other Nintendo character. He scored over 46% on Bowser and almost 70% on Ness. His lone 1v1 match against Ganondorf also looked quite respectable. He's got some pop.
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#75 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/15/2013 1:09:01 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
There is another guy there too you know.So this result is okay.He will finish with above 55%.

I said he was failing to get 60% on KOS-MOS, not KOS-MOS and Dunban. There's a difference.
---
Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#76 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:09:04 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, after RacistFAQs yesterday and Xenoblade sucking today, I am afraid literally no one will vote in Clementine/Reyn/Spyro now.


You forgot to discredit Spyro. I think Jak's loss to Draven will do that just fine.


He didn't forget to discredit Spyro.
#77 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/15/2013 1:09:18 PM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
I don't think Phoenix would be able to keep Ganondorf under 40%. Mewtwo might have suffered from some SFF too.


I don't even need to look at stats to tell you that Ganondorf would be the one keeping Phoenix under 40%. Phoenix is a tricky midcarder to predict but Ganondorf is anything but tricky (assuming SFF doesn't happen).
---
In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#78 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/15/2013 1:09:36 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, after RacistFAQs yesterday and Xenoblade sucking today, I am afraid literally no one will vote in Clementine/Reyn/Spyro now.


You forgot to discredit Spyro. I think Jak's loss to Draven will do that just fine.


Jak lost fair and square, don't get me wrong, but his pre-rally performance says nothing but good things for Spyro. Clementine is FAR less likely to catch a rally than Draven was.
---
Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#79 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/15/2013 1:09:39 PM | message detail
I think it being a night match gives Wright a real shot at 2nd place. Pokemon doesn't like the night too much.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#80 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:10:13 PM | message detail
Also with RacistFAQs in effect...

Meat Boy to win a match?
#81 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/15/2013 1:11:53 PM | message detail | (edited)
ChenKenichiFan posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Also, after RacistFAQs yesterday and Xenoblade sucking today, I am afraid literally no one will vote in Clementine/Reyn/Spyro now.


You forgot to discredit Spyro. I think Jak's loss to Draven will do that just fine.


Jak lost fair and square, don't get me wrong, but his pre-rally performance says nothing but good things for Spyro. Clementine is FAR less likely to catch a rally than Draven was.


No way is Walking Dead's fanbase able to mount a serious rally like LoL did. I agree with you there.
---
In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#82 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/15/2013 1:11:30 PM | message detail
Wright isn't really very hard to predict. Mewtwo is way more inconsistent than he is.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#83 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:11:30 PM | message detail
Trend chart from the night match:

Time | Phoenix | Marth | Night | Votes
0:05 | 50.78% | 35.83% | 13.39% | 575
1:00 | 45.39% | 38.03% | 16.59% | 5559
2:00 | 44.54% | 37.17% | 18.29% | 3269
3:00 | 45.93% | 35.29% | 18.78% | 2332
4:00 | 45.73% | 34.79% | 19.48% | 1848
5:00 | 46.45% | 30.74% | 22.82% | 1477
6:00 | 47.26% | 31.03% | 21.71% | 1331
7:00 | 44.10% | 34.79% | 21.11% | 1535
8:00 | 43.68% | 37.02% | 19.30% | 1710
9:00 | 41.99% | 35.94% | 22.07% | 1917
10:00 | 41.77% | 35.66% | 22.57% | 1932
11:00 | 41.54% | 37.83% | 20.63% | 2046
12:00 | 42.23% | 37.07% | 20.70% | 1937

First match where no one's best hour came near the end of the match! Phoenix is strong for the first 2/3 of the match, but he does drop off a bit with the morning vote. Pretty consistent overall though. It's Marth, not Phoenix, who was at his strongest in the first hour, but he definitely sees a marked improvement with the morning vote. Nightmare as well, but he really had nowhere to go but up after that start.

X-Stats:

Phoenix Wright – 50.00%
Marth – 44.88%
Nightmare – 30.71%

Phoenix's prediction percentage was 64.74%
---
http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif
#84 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/15/2013 1:12:43 PM | message detail
Wright's first hour not being his best time is really indicative of how legitimate he is these days.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#85 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:13:32 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
He scored over 46% on Bowser


With Toad in the poll, sure.

And he got 41% against a weaker Ganondorf. People talk about FFVII being weaker in 2010, but nobody seems to mention that Zelda looked weaker that year, too. I don't think Ganon > Vincent in 2010 is a lock by any stretch of the imagination.

and congrats he SFF'd Ness everyone SFFs Ness
---
http://gifsoup.com/view4/2077316/thane-dance-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view1/1334641/pop-that-collar-o.gif
#86 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 1:14:50 PM | message detail
Carl Johnson doesn't~

(but CATS will)
#87 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:15:39 PM | message detail
Also, don't compare Spyro to Jak. They're not in the same league. Spyro may win because his competition is just as bad as he is, but Jak doing well doesn't really mean anything for Spyro, I think. I know we make fun of Jak and Ratchet and say stuff like "Nobody cares about them," but those guys actually ARE liked.

Spyro, not so much.

FranzyvonKarma posted...
Also with RacistFAQs in effect...

Meat Boy to win a match?


Meat Boy wins the match by benefit of being the only one with no skin
---
http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif
#88 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/15/2013 1:15:54 PM | message detail
Mewtwo (2010c) VS Phoenix Wright (2010c)

Mewtwo has a strength of 27.21.
Phoenix Wright has a strength of 24.74.

Mewtwo wins with 54.54% of the vote!
A win of 4,645 with 51,171 total votes cast.


Random variance is all it would take...!
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#89 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/15/2013 1:16:05 PM | message detail
Five Biggest Blowouts of Division 1 (1v1):

Link got 85.86% on Tingle
Mega Man X got 85.84% on Welkin Gunther
Link got 82.55% on Isaac
Raiden got 81.89% on Alan Wake
Yoshi got 80.05% on Demi-Fiend

Five Closest Matches of Division 1 (1v1):

Tharja got 50.60% on Tiny Tina
Hero got 52.55% on Rinoa Heartilly
Draven got 54.93% on Jak
Tiny Tina got 55.42% on Juliet Starling
Jak got 55.76% on Chie Satonaka
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#90 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/15/2013 1:17:04 PM | message detail
Is that after you factor the SFF that likely happened between Aerith and Rinoa?
---
In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#91 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/15/2013 1:19:24 PM | message detail
I didn't touch any SFF. These are direct comparisons, so don't take them too seriously.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#92 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/15/2013 1:22:58 PM | message detail
If you assume Marth has stayed constant (which is whatever, may or may not be true) then where would that peg 2013 Phoenix in the xstats?
---
Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#93 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/15/2013 1:24:42 PM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
Did anybody post prediction stats from last round yet?


I'll be keeping track of the bracket prediction stats on this page:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdGdPQWNRMDNfaDFUMGRKNEd3X1VpNkE
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#94 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/15/2013 1:30:16 PM | message detail
SonicRaptor posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
I don't think Phoenix would be able to keep Ganondorf under 40%. Mewtwo might have suffered from some SFF too.


I don't even need to look at stats to tell you that Ganondorf would be the one keeping Phoenix under 40%. Phoenix is a tricky midcarder to predict but Ganondorf is anything but tricky (assuming SFF doesn't happen).


Obviously that's what I meant.
---
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#95 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/15/2013 1:31:33 PM | message detail
You know what I noticed? There are no mouths in the next match picture! How often does that happen!?
---
Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#96 | ZFS | Posted 7/15/2013 1:34:44 PM | message detail
Dunban sucks, ouch!
---
tune in tokyo 142.94
#97 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 1:36:43 PM | message detail
Vincent has finally surpassed 60% on KOS-MOS.
---
"Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!"
"Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!"
#98 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/15/2013 1:38:19 PM | message detail
No one noticed that KOS-MOS almost cut Vincent on the 3:33 PM update. Vincent only had a 2 vote gain there.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#99 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/15/2013 1:39:11 PM | message detail
Still perfect
---
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg
Dallas Cowboys and Mavs
#100 | superange128 | Posted 7/15/2013 1:39:43 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
No one noticed that KOS-MOS almost cut Vincent on the 3:33 PM update. Vincent only had a 2 vote gain there.


well even if she cuts not like she's in real danger of upsetting
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.