Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1065

#451 | hawk533 | Posted 7/16/2013 5:57:19 AM | message detail
What was the record lowest percentage ever in a match? 3.62%?

We're almost there if it is.
#452 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/16/2013 5:59:39 AM | message detail
Yeah, Prince of Persia

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3452
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NGirl@work or on phone.
#453 | hawk533 | Posted 7/16/2013 6:03:52 AM | message detail
There we are, 3.6%

This match has been amazing. I really didn't think Chester would do this badly.
#454 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 6:22:07 AM | message detail
Tanner Watch

Chester is expected to 30.59% against Tanner using 2010 Mewtwo.

For Chester to be stronger than Tanner Mewtwo would need to be as strong as Sephiroth

2010 Link is expected to get 97.79% on Chester.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#455 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/16/2013 6:23:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
This freaking match. This is how you make blowouts fun.

My congratulations to Chester, I've been laughing all through reading this topic. His failure is just so beautiful. Mewtwo looks like a godslayer with that percentage despite only being a midcarder. Chester's final position in the X-Stats after everyone in this division is eliminated will be glorious.

EDIT: That Tanner Watch update is exactly what I'm talking about, bahahahahaha
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
#456 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/16/2013 6:28:04 AM | message detail
Chester is so close to getting below 3,62
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#457 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 6:30:56 AM | message detail
Tanner Watch is the greatest contest feature since Crono/Vincent trends.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#458 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/16/2013 6:32:37 AM | message detail
Chester needs 7.69 votes per update to reach 1000 votes.
#459 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/16/2013 6:33:36 AM | message detail
For reference, he's averaging 7.17 votes per update for the last half hour.
#460 | jtwo22 | Posted 7/16/2013 6:33:37 AM | message detail
Man. Mewtwo percentage still going up.
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#461 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/16/2013 6:58:55 AM | message detail
Match XVI: (3) Chrom vs. (16) The Boss vs. (25) Heavy

Previous Contest

Chrom – N/A
N/A

The Boss – 2010
52.37% against Nathan Drake
46.20% against Weighted Companion Cube

Heavy – 2010
43.04% against Roxas

Analysis

This match has the potential to be interesting if you believe everything has stayed the same Heavy is not too far from The Boss and Chrom is essentially a wild card and could finish anywhere from first to third in this match.

While Team Fortress 2 is still a popular game the level of enthusiasm towards it is lower than what it was in 2010. The memes in general have quiet down and with all the DLC people seemed to be turned off towards the game. I expect to see a sharp decline of strength for Heavy like we have seen in other characters.

At the same time The Boss could be in the same boat as Heavy. She has had nothing since Metal Gear Solid 3 and as the Metal Gear series continues more and more people are going to forget about her. I do not think her drop will be as massive as Heavy, especially since the game has been rereleased, but with Chrom lurking it could be the difference between winning and losing.

Chrom I find a bit hard to peg. He is probably the strongest Fire Emblem character not in Super Smash Bros., but at the same time I have no idea how much Super Smash Bros. has helped characters like Marth and Ike. A Brawl announced Ike lost to Gordon Freeman and Duke Nukem, but that was also before his second game, Radiant Dawn. Even with just Path of Radiance and Brawl hype I would take Ike over Chrom so that does not give Chrom too much wiggle room to pull off the upset.

Lucina’s performance against Dracula gave me some thought as to whether Dracula was weak or Lucina and in turn Chrom was strong. I personally believe that it is Dracula who is weak, but if it is the other way Chrom should be able to cause the upset. Overall looking at Ike in 2007 I do not feel Chrom has what it takes to win until he is announced for the next Super Smash Bros.

charmander6000’s Bracket: The Boss > Chrom and Heavy

charmander6000’s Prediction: The Boss – 41.44%, Chrom – 33.74%, Heavy – 24.82%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 12/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo and The Boss
#462 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/16/2013 7:08:03 AM | message detail
Massive update for Chester there.
#463 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/16/2013 7:11:55 AM | message detail
Personally, after what Marth and Lucina did, I honestly don't see Chrom pulling an upset. Ok, they were facing some not-so-easy competition, but still I would have hoped that they would have fared better. Especially Lucina. Marth is respectable because he was facing Phoenix, but Lucina against Dracula, while it seems respectable, I was hoping she would achieve some more.

As a FE fan, their results satisfy me, they got decent results, but I hoped that, taking into account what FE:A did, they would have managed to do better.

The Boss > Chrom > Heavy. If Chrom loses to Heavy it'll be a sad day (He's no Caim though, so I could se that happening) and if I dare, I think that Marth > Lucina > Chrom is the strenght order of those three.
#464 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/16/2013 7:15:03 AM | message detail
When you're the only Nintendo option... I don't see how you can get third place. Easy Boss > Chrom > Heavy for me.
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#465 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/16/2013 7:18:25 AM | message detail
I just can't decide between Heavy and Chrom for second. I feel reasonably confident in The Boss winning, but that match for second... I love how the Expert Challenge makes so many matches interesting.
#466 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/16/2013 7:36:59 AM | message detail
The only thing I feel reasonably good about in the next match is Chrom getting last. Heavy could really impress, though it's hard to go against The Boss since she's the most proven.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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#467 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/16/2013 7:40:31 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Massive update for Chester there.


Double figures for the first time in 7 hours...
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#468 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/16/2013 7:41:05 AM | message detail
I'd be shocked if Chrom finishes last here. He'll end up a lot closer to Boss than Heavy.. theres only so low the main character of the biggest Nintendo game of the year can go.
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#469 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/16/2013 7:48:59 AM | message detail
Another 0 vote update.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#470 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/16/2013 7:53:44 AM | message detail
Amazing.
#471 | abdou | Posted 7/16/2013 7:56:01 AM | message detail
Chrom is definitely beating Heavy, I am worried if he actually beats The Boss
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...
#472 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/16/2013 7:57:52 AM | message detail
I wonder if Mewtwo can snag a 90% update before the match is over.
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#473 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/16/2013 7:58:41 AM | message detail
I predict Heavy > Chrom > The Boss just because it'd be a nice blindside.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#474 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/16/2013 8:05:10 AM | message detail
yeeees 0 vote updates
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#475 | tgs2 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:07:10 AM | message detail
I think Tanner is currently tripling Chester and arguably putting 40% on Zero. Best day of his contest career.
#476 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/16/2013 8:11:49 AM | message detail
Tanner for CBX
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You know who's sexy? Black Turtle, the 2010 Games Contest Guru Winner, that's who!
#477 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:15:11 AM | message detail
Bonus poll Link Vs Tanner vs Chester IMHO.
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#478 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/16/2013 8:17:16 AM | message detail
Zero and Chester have finally done it.

They now have more votes combined than Mewtwo had after the first hour.
#479 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/16/2013 8:29:22 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
Bonus poll Link Vs Tanner vs Chester IMHO.


If we do that, we have to vote for Link to get a fair comparison between Tanner and Chester.
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#480 | FFDragon | Posted 7/16/2013 8:43:59 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
yeeees 0 vote updates


aw I went to sleep at 4:30 thinking they wouldn't happen
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#481 | pjbasis | Posted 7/16/2013 8:44:39 AM | message detail
Lost in all this is Zero being such garbage.

Getting less than quadrupled by Mewtwo. Imagine how low Chester could have gotten with a stronger third wheel.
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#482 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:46:52 AM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
yeeees 0 vote updates


aw I went to sleep at 4:30 thinking they wouldn't happen

That's unfortunate. The first occurrence was the 4:31 update. >_>
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#483 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/16/2013 8:47:22 AM | message detail
who is vote stuffing for chester
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#484 | vcharon | Posted 7/16/2013 8:47:58 AM | message detail
Stop voting for him >_>
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Still smilin'
:>
#485 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:48:04 AM | message detail
Guys guys
The Boss>Chrom>Chrom for most efficient pick??
#486 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/16/2013 8:49:08 AM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
theres only so low the main character of the biggest Nintendo game of the year can go.


I'm not big on that argument since I don't have high hopes for Pit either; he was in Nintendo's biggest game last year (not counting NSMBWU beating KI:R since that was NSMB2 and nme-power combined). They're both handheld-titles too, which don't often prove to be big for contest-strength...but at least Pit has SSB and his NES-game compared to Chrom going solely on FE:A.

Maybe Chrom will suggest good things for Pit, but right now...not buying it. Marth didn't impress and neither Tharja nor Lucina looked good.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#487 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:51:24 AM | message detail
1 seed is Noble Nine
8 seed is board 8

3 seed just happens to be new characters or is it really based on nominations?
#488 | pjbasis | Posted 7/16/2013 8:51:48 AM | message detail
Cannot imagine Chrom losing to Heavy right now
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#489 | FFDragon | Posted 7/16/2013 8:52:18 AM | message detail
I GOT TO SEE A ZERO UPDATE
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif
#490 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:52:30 AM | message detail
I'm more worried about Chrom > The Boss than I am Heavy > Chrom.

but given my recent track record in debated matches everyone might want to flee from those positions
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#491 | Xuxon | Posted 7/16/2013 8:52:41 AM | message detail
From: vcharon | Posted: 7/16/2013 11:47:58 AM | #484
Stop voting for him >_>

they did!
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#492 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:53:01 AM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
I GOT TO SEE A ZERO UPDATE


There were 2 already
#493 | The Mana Sword | Posted 7/16/2013 8:53:09 AM | message detail
oh god can he hit 3.5
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#494 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:53:25 AM | message detail
...And that was the third
#495 | xp1337 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:53:27 AM | message detail
Hahaha, a third time? Amazing.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#496 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:55:42 AM | message detail
Yeah he got 0 votes when he had 505,856 and now (916) votes
Maybe I missed some
#497 | Nintendoboy375 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:55:49 AM | message detail
Tanner still wins in the "most amount of zero vote updates" category.

Nobody can ever replace him.
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http://i.imgur.com/6OHUIst.jpg
#498 | Xuxon | Posted 7/16/2013 8:59:09 AM | message detail
Tanner never had a period of 5 minutes where he got 0 votes, so that doesn't count.
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#499 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/16/2013 8:59:30 AM | message detail
Time | Chester | Mewtwo | Zero

2013-07-16 04:32:04 | 505 | 10859 | 1967
2013-07-16 04:27:05 | 505 | 10764 | 1945

2013-07-16 10:47:04 | 856 | 19506 | 3558
2013-07-16 10:42:04 | 856 | 19350 | 3530

2013-07-16 11:52:04 | 916 | 21311 | 3833
2013-07-16 11:47:04 | 916 | 21184 | 3808
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#500 | FFDragon | Posted 7/16/2013 9:00:03 AM | message detail
We've done it.
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If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif