Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1065

#1 | The Real Truth | Posted 7/15/2013 11:18:34 AM | message detail
Always wanted to make one of these

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/15/2013 11:19:44 AM | message detail
I'm glad "non-stats" B8ers are making these. I honestly hate making them now so the more people available to keep me from doing so, the better.
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#3 | tgs2 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:19:56 AM | message detail
lol FF7
#4 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:19:59 AM | message detail
Vincent still rising.

KOS-MOS > Fei Fong Wong
Dunban > Dan Hibiki?
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#5 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:20:41 AM | message detail
Also, can't wait to see what Chester's pic will be.

He kinda looks like a pokemon!
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#6 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 7/15/2013 11:20:53 AM | message detail
So, who will people end up voting for for Mewtwo anti-votes? I feel the anti-votes will actually be stronger than the actual base for the others. Could Chester win over Zero if the anti-voters all flock to him because he's the top choice? Or would they more likely go to the cooler looking character?
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#7 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/15/2013 11:24:20 AM | message detail
Mewtwo is a very good candidate to avoid anti-votes. He doesn't have Link or Final Fantasy's history of winning, and he isn't an ambassador for Nintendo like the Mario guys (who may get hit with anti-votes from the few Nintendo haters here). He's also not a cutesy Pokemon like Pikachu or Jigglypuff, and I've always thought that the mature Pokemon could better avoid anti-votes. I think he's going huge tonight.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg
#8 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 11:25:43 AM | message detail
Watch Mewtwo get his Majin Two pic just to see how badly it can make him do.
#9 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:26:44 AM | message detail
Do people really care about any of the old Belmonts..?

Not really, but it does help the case that Alucard is the exception than the rule.

The only problem is that I would not be surprised if Chrom won over Lucina by as much as Dracula did before SFF. So Alucard really has to win over Dracula.

So is Dracula really that weak, Lucina that strong or is Chrom and Lucina really close to each other?

The Boss could be weaker now too considering she has not been in anything since MGS3
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#10 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:27:53 AM | message detail
All FF 7 characters finished with above 50%.That is good,correct?
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#11 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 11:30:29 AM | message detail
Sort of? They managed to break 50%, but the only thing even approaching real competition they beat was KOS-MOS.
#12 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/15/2013 11:32:33 AM | message detail
MGS3 has seen 3 rereleases since our last contest. I don't know how well those sold, but it should be enough to keep her strength where it was.
#13 | superange128 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:34:36 AM | message detail
The Boss seems like one of those characters people will always like and not really lose too much strength
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#14 | Sorozone | Posted 7/15/2013 11:35:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
We won't be able to tell how strong FF7 is till about Cloud. There is nothing in his match that's holding him back, or the other two holding each other back. As is the case in Sephiroth, with the other two opponents being Nintendo. Though Seph should still give a some what accurate gauge as well.

At this current time, I think it's obvious it has weakened a bit. We just don't know by how much, or if it'll make a difference in later, more important rounds.
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#15 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/15/2013 11:38:24 AM | message detail
Who wins: Dunban or Reimu?
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#16 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 11:38:27 AM | message detail
I will say though that right now Snake should be considered a huge favorite over Cloud. Hero's % screams "These people will not vote for Final Fantasy, period", and the likely third in that match right now is Sora, who at best for Cloud will simply die off and not eat into his votes at all, and even then is likely to push all those "Not Final Fantasy" votes into Snake's pool.
#17 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:45:07 AM | message detail
I am a huge FF 7 fan but yeah Cloud hasn't got a change.There will be either Sora,Pikachu or Crono.If Crono or Sora is there Cloud loses for sure.If Pikachu is there he might do it.
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#18 | dethfdddddh | Posted 7/15/2013 11:45:18 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...


At this current time, I think it's obvious it has weakened a bit. We just don't know by how much, or if it'll make a difference in later, more important rounds.
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Snake was already really close to Cloud.
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Fast Falcon ate my bracket for dinner in the guru contest.
#19 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 7/15/2013 11:48:40 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
I will say though that right now Snake should be considered a huge favorite over Cloud. Hero's % screams "These people will not vote for Final Fantasy, period", and the likely third in that match right now is Sora, who at best for Cloud will simply die off and not eat into his votes at all, and even then is likely to push all those "Not Final Fantasy" votes into Snake's pool.


Definitely a highly probable scenario but i think i'll wait till Snake's match before saying anything. Isaac(golden sun) should be a clear notch above that of Fei and Isaac (binding), if Snake scores anywhere around 65%, i would be quite impressed.

At this point, it would take the most hardened FFVII fans to deny that their precious game has dropped in strength.
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#20 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:50:12 AM | message detail
Big Boss is going to score 70%

BIG BOSS to the Final 9! Sephiroth going down!
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#21 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:52:11 AM | message detail
Also, is everyone voting for CATS or do we want him to fail really badly?
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#22 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:55:11 AM | message detail
I wish we could've had Mario vs. Cloud vs. Charizard.

And Snake vs. Samus vs. Sonic/Crono
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#23 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:55:41 AM | message detail
Or Snake vs. Samus vs. Sephiroth too.
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#24 | tgs2 | Posted 7/15/2013 11:56:12 AM | message detail
Snake could still score 65% and look bad depending on how awful Commander Keen's vote is. It could be 65-30-5 and make Snake look like a chump for barely doubling (somewhat high) fodder that someone with the same strength (Samus) practically tripled in a match against; granted that was years ago.

Heck, it's probably a quasi-sequal to that 2003 match considering that result derailed the Samus > Link hype train back then.
#25 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 11:56:59 AM | message detail
Fei Fong Wong > Isaac (Golden Sun)
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#26 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/15/2013 11:58:32 AM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Also, is everyone voting for CATS or do we want him to fail really badly?


No lets leave the failing to Chester. We should all vote for CATS
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#27 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/15/2013 12:03:39 PM | message detail
I've never voted for CATS and I'm not starting now. I don't even know who's in his match, I just know I'm not voting for CATS.
#28 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 7/15/2013 12:03:39 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#29 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/15/2013 12:12:14 PM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
I've never voted for CATS and I'm not starting now. I don't even know who's in his match, I just know I'm not voting for CATS.


Ness and Locke Cole
#30 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:12:43 PM | message detail
What is Vincent doing? Currently failing to get 60% on KOS-MOS??!!?

…Mewtwo > Vince might actually be possible.

And so much for RacistFAQs.
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#31 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:16:31 PM | message detail
There is another guy there too you know.So this result is okay.He will finish with above 55%.
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#32 | abdou | Posted 7/15/2013 12:19:33 PM | message detail
Yeah..I didn't want to believe all of the "FF7 is crap now" but this is an awful showing, I was expecting Vincent to break 60% . To be honest he would have probably done couple %ages better if this was a night match, still not good enough for the Vincent>Sonic upset. And Cloud is definitely not getting past Snake.
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#33 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/15/2013 12:19:53 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Also, is everyone voting for CATS or do we want him to fail really badly?


We always want CATS to do well.
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#34 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:20:32 PM | message detail
Keep in mind that Vincent hasn't been relevant in a while whereas KOS-MOS just had, if it's worth anything, Project X Zone
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#35 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:21:06 PM | message detail
Yeah and there if you do her special attack,that is the definition of fan service.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#36 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 12:23:44 PM | message detail
Ytterbium_70 posted...
Keep in mind that Vincent hasn't been relevant in a while whereas KOS-MOS just had, if it's worth anything, Project X Zone

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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#37 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 12:25:32 PM | message detail
BTW, Morrigan > Agent 47 > Edgeworth
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#38 | Sorozone | Posted 7/15/2013 12:25:56 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Yeah and there if you do her special attack,that is the definition of fan service.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvZq4lPSNjg

For those wondering.
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#39 | Samurai7 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:26:11 PM | message detail
I don't think people realize how much harder it is to get to 60 or 70 percentage points in a three way poll than a two way. Strength isn't entirely linear in these contests, and thus the stronger character will always 'under perform' compared to his expect 1v1 percentages against either of his competitors. Every single character has at least some degree of shared fans between other characters, even ones with almost no similarity. It's only that it becomes evident in extreme cases. But this same sharing of fanbases will make strong performers not able to reach their 1v1 percentages proportionally in multi way polls.
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#40 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:26:12 PM | message detail
How many people fell off the leaderboard in the previous match?I didn't saw that anywhere.
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#41 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/15/2013 12:28:39 PM | message detail
Vincent looks stronger than Aeris & Barret.
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Pts: 14/14 Today's Picks: Mewtwo & The Boss
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#42 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 12:31:07 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Vincent looks stronger than Aeris & Barret.


There's a huge gap between Aeris and where Vincent's usually been.
#43 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:33:16 PM | message detail
LOL Dunban

Still think people are overrating Mewtwo to high heaven when it comes to his chances of beating Vincent, especially considering that's a night match.
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#44 | pjbasis | Posted 7/15/2013 12:34:14 PM | message detail
Why is Project X Zone continually being mentioned
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#45 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:34:22 PM | message detail
And the non-Mewtwo votes will definitely go to Zero. He has a cool-ish design, and there's a chance of getting the "It's the dude from MMX!" confusion votes.

And Mewtwo will get anti-voted to some extent, sorry to break it to you guys.
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#46 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 12:34:27 PM | message detail
I like to believe people are joking when they say Mewtwo > Vincent because massive overreactions are one of the only good things these kinds of matches have to offer.
#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/15/2013 12:35:29 PM | message detail
Seriously thinking of picking Phoenix for 2nd next round after his performance yesterday.

And I don't want to hear any Mewtwo > Vincent pickers calling me insane for considering it!
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#48 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 12:35:42 PM | message detail
I mean uh clearly Phoenix is going to ride the anti-jRPG vote to victory.
#49 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 7/15/2013 12:37:23 PM | message detail
Also if we're being jokey-honest I wouldn't be surprised if Mewtwo jumped out to a huge lead on Vincent.

I mean the guy was losing to Bidoof for like half an hour.
#50 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 7/15/2013 12:41:00 PM | message detail
I thought Phoenix getting second in the next match was pretty straightforward.


Mewtwo > Phoenix > Vincent obviously
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