Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1064

#201 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:45:16 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:45:55 PM | message detail
Marth should cut once we hit morning, yeah, but the problem is that if it's close late, there's no way Phoenix loses. Marth would need to cut early and put the lead away well before the end of the match in order to win.
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http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg
#203 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:48:16 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Marth should cut once we hit morning, yeah, but the problem is that if it's close late, there's no way Phoenix loses. Marth would need to cut early and put the lead away well before the end of the match in order to win.


This. If It's close, I'm rushing to Court Records to post a link to the poll because there is NO WAY I am letting Phoenix lose here. And I think many people would do likewise.
#204 | swirIdude | Posted 7/14/2013 9:51:15 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Marth should cut once we hit morning, yeah, but the problem is that if it's close late, there's no way Phoenix loses. Marth would need to cut early and put the lead away well before the end of the match in order to win.


This. If It's close, I'm rushing to Court Records to post a link to the poll because there is NO WAY I am letting Phoenix lose here. And I think many people would do likewise.


Soldier on, brave warrior.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#205 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:51:34 PM | message detail
Phoenix did better at night against freaking Dracula. He should be able to get a big enough lead overnight to be able to handle any cutting Marth does in the morning.
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#206 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/14/2013 9:52:38 PM | message detail
Yes. There is no other word but "yes."
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#207 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/14/2013 9:53:14 PM | message detail
first cut
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#208 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:53:50 PM | message detail
Hey. Marth got his first cut. Too little, too late. Right?
#209 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:54:09 PM | message detail
Marth got a cut
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#210 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:54:43 PM | message detail
Hey. Marth got his first cut. Too little, too late. Right?

Nope, but Marth will need to get a few more
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#211 | swirIdude | Posted 7/14/2013 9:55:35 PM | message detail
Turnabout Awakening.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#212 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:58:46 PM | message detail
#213 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:58:49 PM | message detail
#214 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 9:58:54 PM | message detail
Big gain by Phoenix.
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http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif
#215 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/14/2013 9:58:54 PM | message detail
The evidence Marth presented was incorrect and he lost some life
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#216 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:59:06 PM | message detail
cut followed by the biggest lead increase in 40 minutes
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http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif
#217 | swirIdude | Posted 7/14/2013 9:59:19 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
wrong way Marth


He's like Lucina in that way.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#218 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:59:29 PM | message detail
Phoenix's first percentage increase since the freeze.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#219 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 10:00:00 PM | message detail
Marth needs to keep this under 500 by the time the morning comes around to have a chance. I don't see him being able to cut much more than that.
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http://i.imgur.com/lnKB0m9.jpg http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1184880/davis-again.gif http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8118/8656607511_94178dbf2e_o.gif
#220 | vcharon | Posted 7/14/2013 10:00:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, that certainly isn't strange! Looks like someone got scared of that cut.
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Still smilin'
:>
#221 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 10:00:21 PM | message detail
also Nightmare's best update so far. almost 20%.
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#222 | AtmaZero | Posted 7/14/2013 10:00:55 PM | message detail
finally made it to the leaderboard! too bad I'll be right off it unless Marth comes back. I have faith though.
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#223 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:01:02 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Yeah, that certainly isn't strange! Looks like someone got scared of that cut.


Marth voters, I guess.

Dropped nearly 20 votes on that update.
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http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png
#224 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 10:04:09 PM | message detail
another one almost exactly the same. this time Nightmare breaks 20%
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#225 | Achromatic | Posted 7/14/2013 10:04:09 PM | message detail
...

Marth won the power hour, didn't he.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#226 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 10:04:13 PM | message detail
Another 39...SUSPICIOUS!
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#227 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:04:54 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
...

Marth won the power hour, didn't he.


Depends on your definition of "won."

But if you've got Marth in your bracket, you probably don't feel like a winner after those last two updates.
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Guess who I am!
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#228 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/14/2013 10:06:29 PM | message detail
I just remembered that this match was essential for my Mewtwo > Vincent upset. Good job, lawyer!
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#229 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 10:06:31 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Hey. Marth got his first cut. Too little, too late. Right?

Nope, but Marth will need to get a few more


I need to say something now, but I love people that still Italic previous posts when they want to quote. It's like a blast from the past.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#230 | Achromatic | Posted 7/14/2013 10:06:52 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Achromatic posted...
...

Marth won the power hour, didn't he.


Depends on your definition of "won."

But if you've got Marth in your bracket, you probably don't feel like a winner after those last two updates.


"won" as in gained the most % he is going to be expected to get.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#231 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:08:10 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I just remembered that this match was essential for my Mewtwo > Vincent upset. Good job, lawyer!


Mewtwo still gonna lose easily
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http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif
#232 | Achromatic | Posted 7/14/2013 10:08:44 PM | message detail
and now Nightmare is going to gain a ton of % throughout the night.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#233 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/14/2013 10:08:54 PM | message detail
Over 23% for Nightmare.

Funny how bad his first hour is
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#234 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/14/2013 10:09:04 PM | message detail
Nightmare trying not to look like a *complete* loser.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#235 | isNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 10:09:30 PM | message detail
I don't see where Marth will draw strength from to push back. The way I see it, Phoenix will keep gaining steadily throughout the night until about a 700-800 vote lead.

I'm not calling it quite yet though.
#236 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:09:53 PM | message detail
Nightmare recovering from his horrific start will probably sabotage Marth a bit, too.
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#237 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 10:13:27 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I just remembered that this match was essential for my Mewtwo > Vincent upset. Good job, lawyer!


I don't understand how this match says anything about Mewtwo > Vincent
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#238 | isNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 10:13:58 PM | message detail
Marth had a good update there.
#239 | Evillordexdeath | Posted 7/14/2013 10:14:34 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
ChenKenichiFan posted...
I just remembered that this match was essential for my Mewtwo > Vincent upset. Good job, lawyer!


I don't understand how this match says anything about Mewtwo > Vincent


If Marth were to win this match he'd LFF Mewtwo next round.
#240 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:15:15 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
I don't understand how this match says anything about Mewtwo > Vincent


If Marth is there, there's no way Mewtwo beats Vincent.

There's not much chance he does it anyway, but there's virtually no chance if another Nintendo character is there.

Also, Nightmare dropped off a cliff on that update.
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#241 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/14/2013 10:19:54 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
paulg235 posted...
All aboard the Proto Man > Ike bandwagon!


I honestly thought that was pretty debatable to begin with. And with the way MMX beasted I'm seriously unsure of that match now.


As someone who pretty acurately called that match in the Oracle, Proto Man aint doin nothin.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#242 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 10:21:25 PM | message detail
Robotnik > Ike/Protoman
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#243 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:21:35 PM | message detail
Oh right, I guess I can post the trend chart now:

Time | Layton | Barret | Reimu | Votes
0:05 | 31.90% | 45.04% | 23.06% | 746
1:00 | 30.37% | 44.27% | 25.36% | 5742
2:00 | 30.42% | 45.78% | 23.80% | 4432
3:00 | 32.90% | 50.01% | 17.09% | 3347
4:00 | 31.83% | 50.08% | 18.09% | 3113
5:00 | 31.22% | 51.83% | 16.95% | 2896
6:00 | 31.44% | 51.39% | 17.17% | 2516
7:00 | 31.30% | 53.26% | 15.44% | 2345
8:00 | 29.78% | 54.38% | 15.84% | 2159
9:00 | 30.21% | 54.56% | 15.23% | 1983
10:00 | 31.80% | 53.63% | 14.57% | 1915
11:00 | 31.28% | 53.43% | 15.29% | 1838
12:00 | 33.03% | 52.26% | 14.71% | 1659

Naturally, the early rally means Reimu does her best work at the beginning of the match, but once the rally dies off, Barret never has a sub-50% hour. Layton stays oddly consistent throughout despite the rally. It's like all of Reimu's lost percentage went straight to Barret.

X-Stats:

Barret Wallace – 50.00%
Professor Layton – 38.41%
Reimu Hakurei – 27.31%

51.28% prediction percentage for Barret.
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#244 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 10:23:49 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
foxhead84 posted...
I don't understand how this match says anything about Mewtwo > Vincent


If Marth is there, there's no way Mewtwo beats Vincent.

There's not much chance he does it anyway, but there's virtually no chance if another Nintendo character is there.

Also, Nightmare dropped off a cliff on that update.


Mewtwo is not doing it ever. Phoenix will drag him down too. Not as much as Marth, but it will still have an effect.
#245 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/14/2013 10:30:36 PM | message detail
I don't know who started this terrible Mewtwo > Vincent upset train.

but come on guys, we're supposed to know better than the average GameFAQs user. Mewtwo > Vincent is a stupid pick.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 11/12 pts | Expert Challenge: 29/72
NP: Marth > Phoenix Wright > Nightmare
#246 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 10:30:55 PM | message detail
If Vincent somehow fails to beat Mewtwo, the board will explode
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#247 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:32:26 PM | message detail
#248 | Achromatic | Posted 7/14/2013 10:33:04 PM | message detail
I think I have pretty much the worst possible reasonable performance for every single Pokemon thing aside for Blue.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
http://i.imgur.com/hDIb02X.jpg
#249 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 10:33:41 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
I don't know who started this terrible Mewtwo > Vincent upset train.

but come on guys, we're supposed to know better than the average GameFAQs user. Mewtwo > Vincent is a stupid pick.


Especially because Mewtwo is a jobber. He's a midcarder who tends to low rather than high.
#250 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 10:33:46 PM | message detail
Lead over 500 now.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."