Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1064

#151 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:19:00 PM | message detail
Wow. I'm thinking of calling this now. I expected a better fight from Marth.
#152 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:19:47 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
Touhou is like Galaga. dodge projectiles, shoot projectiles. except with little girls firing magic.


Or more closely, Ikaruga. Ikaruga is basically what a mainstream Touhou game would be like. One of the games even had a switch-focus gimmick like it did.
#153 | Qwaar | Posted 7/14/2013 9:19:52 PM | message detail
I'm surprised anyone thought Marth could take this, but there you go.
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#154 | vcharon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:20:44 PM | message detail
Really disappointed with Nightmare. I'm gonna blame the pictures. =/
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#155 | Kibago | Posted 7/14/2013 9:21:11 PM | message detail
I need to see something from Marth very soon.
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#156 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 9:21:14 PM | message detail
LOL I told everyone Phoenix had this easily.
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#157 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:21:21 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
I'm surprised anyone thought Marth could take this, but there you go.


It wasn't an unreasonable pick. On paper, Marth and Phoenix were literally dead even in the Xstats, and Marth did have FE Awakening to back him up plus Smash PLUS handheld seniority if you wanted to buy into that. Of course, Phoenix had counterbalancing factors, but it was a legit pick. That said, as soon as I got done with my research, I picked Phoenix and never let go. It just...felt right for him to win this.
#158 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 9:22:10 PM | message detail
Yea Nightmare looking pretty abysmal here.

Should have been expected, 3 was bad, 4 was ok, 5 was better, but no where near the levels of 2 or the original.
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#159 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:24:18 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Xuxon posted...
Touhou is like Galaga. dodge projectiles, shoot projectiles. except with little girls firing magic.


Or more closely, Ikaruga. Ikaruga is basically what a mainstream Touhou game would be like. One of the games even had a switch-focus gimmick like it did.


I thought they all have the switch-focus gimmick. I know that 6-11 did. I haven't played the rest.
#160 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/14/2013 9:25:24 PM | message detail
Based on 2007, I think Phoenix needs about a 500 vote lead to be safe. He should get that, but I suspect it may be close.
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#161 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/14/2013 9:25:28 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
The freeze has been weird this entire tournament. It's been at different random minute-marks. In fact, I think the freeze has been at the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6-minute marks in different matches this contest.


The freeze has also happened at 1 1/2 minutes, 2 1/2 minutes, 3 1/2 minutes, and 4 1/2 minutes. So it's completely messed up. I blame the new poll results page.
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#162 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/14/2013 9:25:42 PM | message detail
Nightmare's pic isn't bad. He's just bombing.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#163 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/14/2013 9:26:46 PM | message detail
Yep, Nightmare getting rekt hard.
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#164 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:26:56 PM | message detail
Marth would have had a much better chance in a day match or a 24 hour match. Just literally everything about this particular match setup favored Phoenix.

Also, Phoenix is tripling Nightmare. Samus did not triple Nightmare in 2008.

Phoenix to win the division.
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#165 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/14/2013 9:27:03 PM | message detail
SCIV was poorly received by most fans and V's reception seemed to be even more negative.

Not really surprised Nightmare's strength has faded away.
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#166 | pjbasis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:27:16 PM | message detail
#167 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/14/2013 9:27:24 PM | message detail
SonicRaptor posted...
There is some seriously shady crap going on according to the map. Unless Russia and Eastern Europe has a huge fanbase for anime-looking games I'm thinking Reimu's fans are taking advantage of the sheer number of anonymous proxy servers located over there.


Well, the 4chan rally did take place while Russia and Eastern Europe were still awake to vote in the match.
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#168 | vcharon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:27:33 PM | message detail
I suppose he probably should have made a battle before now, as Soul Calibur as a series has obviously gotten a lot weaker and less exposure. Still... I figured he'd do better. And yeah, the picture is awful. It's generic and isn't even recognizably him in my opinion.
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#169 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:28:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Small lead gain for Phoenix. Either Marth is starting to gain, or this is just a dip. I pray it's the latter. C'mon Phoenix!
#170 | Kibago | Posted 7/14/2013 9:28:27 PM | message detail
ok that's a stall
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#171 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:28:59 PM | message detail
First real stall from Marth there. If he can start cutting into the end of the Power Hour then this might become a match worth watching.
#172 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 9:29:02 PM | message detail
Just a dip. Phoenix has this match, I'm telling you guys.
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#173 | Metal_DK | Posted 7/14/2013 9:29:40 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
I suppose he probably should have made a battle before now, as Soul Calibur as a series has obviously gotten a lot weaker and less exposure. Still... I figured he'd do better. And yeah, the picture is awful. It's generic and isn't even recognizably him in my opinion.


especially since the new revival of fighting games beginning around 2007/2008. We've had somewhat of a renaissance of the genre, and soul calibur hasn't been a part of it at all.
#174 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:29:57 PM | message detail
Eh, you have to keep in mind that this is Marth's best time, too. Phoenix will increase his lead during the dead of night.
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#175 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 9:30:06 PM | message detail
Go Phoenix! Do it for justice!
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#176 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:30:51 PM | message detail
OK, this next update should be the decisive one. This is right around the time the board vote fully ends and the power hour begins in earnest. If Phoenix manages to increase the lead one more time, he should be good I think. One final effort! Go for it, Ace Attorney!
#177 | Qwaar | Posted 7/14/2013 9:32:04 PM | message detail
Why am I feeling worried now?
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#178 | paulg235 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:32:08 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Eh, you have to keep in mind that this is Marth's best time, too. Phoenix will increase his lead during the dead of night.

Honestly, I think Marth has only done so well in this past with the board vote because some of his previous opponents are guys who are terrible with the board vote (Sephiroth, Kratos).
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#179 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:32:46 PM | message detail
Nah, Marth is Smash. Smash has a good opening vote.

Heck, even if you believe Marth gets a lot of strength from Fire Emblem, we've already seen twice that Fire Emblem has a good opening vote, too.
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#180 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:33:25 PM | message detail
#181 | paulg235 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:33:50 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeP4RP6XNuE&t=0m21s
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#182 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:34:19 PM | message detail
HE GAINS! VERDICT: NOT GUILTY!
#183 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:37:57 PM | message detail
Nightmare's already gained 2% since the freeze. He'll probably finish with 20%+ by the time this is over.

Which is still pretty bad, but not nearly as embarrassing as he started out.
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#184 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/14/2013 9:38:02 PM | message detail
This seems constant enough to be safe. Of course last time I said that, Draven went nuts.
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#185 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:38:24 PM | message detail
#186 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:38:48 PM | message detail
Good God is FE sucking this contest. I mean, damn, at least Tharja and Lucina had the defence that they were in a FE game that released only recently but Marth, with the SSB boost, has no excuse.
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#187 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:39:06 PM | message detail
Marth still couldn't manage a cut and the votals fell through the floor that update. I don't think he can get himself out of this hole. Well done Phoenix.
#188 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 9:39:09 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
This seems constant enough to be safe. Of course last time I said that, Draven went nuts.

Marth doesn't have rally power, silly Ulti.
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#189 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/14/2013 9:40:11 PM | message detail
izNotPerfect posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
This seems constant enough to be safe. Of course last time I said that, Draven went nuts.

Marth doesn't have rally power, silly Ulti.


Smashboards post-EVO rally incoming
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#190 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:40:32 PM | message detail
izNotPerfect posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
This seems constant enough to be safe. Of course last time I said that, Draven went nuts.

Marth doesn't have rally power, silly Ulti.


Yup, League of Legends is ridiculously popular online at the moment and Draven making a comeback only surprised me because of how damn strong it was.
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#191 | paulg235 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:41:06 PM | message detail
All aboard the Proto Man > Ike bandwagon!
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#192 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:41:59 PM | message detail
For the record, after the first hour, Phoenix lost 2% against Jecht, and that's with Jecht having a strong night vote.

I feel pretty good about Phoenix having this.
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#193 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:42:16 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
All aboard the Proto Man > Ike bandwagon!


I honestly thought that was pretty debatable to begin with. And with the way MMX beasted I'm seriously unsure of that match now.
#194 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:42:38 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
All aboard the Proto Man > Ike bandwagon!


Ike has always looked a cut above Marth and I'd take Phoenix to double Protoman. It ain't happening.
#195 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:42:41 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
All aboard the Proto Man > Ike bandwagon!


Eh, not sure about this one, Proto Man isn't exactly a strong midcarder which seems to be enough to overcome FE in this contest.
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#196 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 9:42:55 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
izNotPerfect posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
This seems constant enough to be safe. Of course last time I said that, Draven went nuts.

Marth doesn't have rally power, silly Ulti.


Smashboards post-EVO rally incoming

EVO rally? Eh, the Smash crowd has left. SSFIV finals are going on right now. I don't see it happening.

Smashboards might be able to muster a decent rally, but Phoenix is looking like a champ right now.
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#197 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:43:24 PM | message detail
Ike's stronger than Marth because Ike gets his popularity from more than just Smash.
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#198 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/14/2013 9:43:33 PM | message detail
Also, EVO viewers are just as likely to vote for Phoenix btw.
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#199 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:44:42 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | Posted: 7/15/2013 12:41:59 AM | #192
For the record, after the first hour, Phoenix lost 2% against Jecht, and that's with Jecht having a strong night vote.

I feel pretty good about Phoenix having this.

Marth could cut from the morning on. but Phoenix should probably be gaining all night. so yeah.
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#200 | Kibago | Posted 7/14/2013 9:45:07 PM | message detail
i won't give up until 500 votes, but yeah, this looks like 42%-39%-19% to me.
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