Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1064

#101 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:23 PM | message detail
Nightmare currently getting 80/20'd by Phoenix Wright.
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#102 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:48 PM | message detail
#103 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:49 PM | message detail
Awesome.
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#104 | SubDeity | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:51 PM | message detail
Phoenix gonna get killed.
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#105 | LOLContests | Posted 7/14/2013 9:04:37 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.


Was always a bad pick, IMO. People that picked Vincent assumed he would be immune to FF7's downward trend, which is ridiculous.


It's less I think Vincent's immune and more that I don't see Sonic as being as any better. Yeah, he's gotten new well-received games, but they were hardly tentpole releases that anyone really cared about. They were less popular than Mega Man's new games, and it's not like those helped him any.
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#106 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:05:00 PM | message detail
The freeze was after only 3 minutes and Phoenix still managed to explode out to an 86-vote lead. Marth better start making this Power Hour count soon or he'll have a tough time coming back. This is a big early hole.
#107 | pjbasis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:05:12 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
They were less popular than Mega Man's new games,


what new games
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#108 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:05:13 PM | message detail
Phoenix stayed pretty steady after the first minute. Think he's got this one.
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#109 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:05:21 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Early freeze, huh.

Weird.


The last match also had an early freeze
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#110 | LOLContests | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:01 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
LOLContests posted...
They were less popular than Mega Man's new games,


what new games


Mega Man 9
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#111 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:18 PM | message detail
Good thing for Phoenix is that having such a strong early vote neutralizes Marth's strongest time as well.
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#112 | superange128 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:23 PM | message detail
and 10
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#113 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:35 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Early freeze, huh.

Weird.


The freeze has been weird this entire tournament. It's been at different random minute-marks. In fact, I think the freeze has been at the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6-minute marks in different matches this contest.
#114 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:41 PM | message detail
should have listened to my brother. he doesn't really follow the contests but he was sure Nightmare would get less than 20%.
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#115 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:56 PM | message detail
Wow. Allen 48th in the Expert Leaderboard.
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#116 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/14/2013 9:06:57 PM | message detail
Sonic looked better in that match than he has in a WHILE. I know it's hard to say off of one match, but it was a very good performance after a series of disappointing ones, I think his series being good again helped. Also, Mega Man looked really good last time, so I would dispute that claim.

Also let's go Phoenix!
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#117 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:08:39 PM | message detail
#118 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:09:18 PM | message detail
#119 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/14/2013 9:09:22 PM | message detail
For reference:

PWAA was losing to Mario Kart Wii by 60 at the freeze and ultimately only lost 1%.

Led by 60 against Jecht, took until 30 minutes in for the joke to wear off and for Phoenix to lose. Phoenix ended with 47.3%.

Wrighto CRUSHES Bomberman in the first 12-ish hours of that poll.



Point being, if Marth isn't storming back by 00:30, this match might be over rather than the joke wearing off. Marth needed Nightmare to be much stronger here.
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#120 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:10:15 PM | message detail
hahah marth gonna win ;D
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#121 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/14/2013 9:10:30 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright hasn't really had joke trends since the Bomberman days.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#122 | pjbasis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:11:13 PM | message detail
Mostly surprised by Nightmare here. Jeez
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#123 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:11:41 PM | message detail
#124 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:11:47 PM | message detail
Point being, if Marth isn't storming back by 00:30, this match might be over rather than the joke wearing off. Marth needed Nightmare to be much stronger here.

Agreed Marth needs to slow this down rather quickly for him to have a chance
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#125 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:12:02 PM | message detail
Only 51% had Barret winning.... strange
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#126 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/14/2013 9:12:13 PM | message detail
Man, it's very difficult to try and get a gauge on when the third place character will put up a respectable performance and when they'll be completely left in the dust. We might conceivably have a situation where that visual novel character from yesterday looks better than Nightmare.
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#127 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:12:24 PM | message detail
In his match picture, Nightmare looks like a Mason Order heavy knight a la Age of Chivalry. AKA quite bland
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#128 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 9:13:26 PM | message detail
Wow, Barret was not favored at all.

LOL
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#129 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 9:13:31 PM | message detail
#130 | paulg235 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:13:32 PM | message detail
I think Wright has this.
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#131 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:13:50 PM | message detail
Phoenix goes to almost 200 lead. TAKE THAT!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdU8oqCbvzo
#132 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 7/14/2013 9:13:50 PM | message detail
Lead's up to 185
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#133 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/14/2013 9:14:09 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
11------798--------78.07
10------2445------64.58
9--------4029------54.21
8--------3676------46.74
7--------2246------42.61
6--------1103------38.53
5--------526--------35.93
4--------234--------40.60
3--------109--------35.78
2--------42----------28.57
1--------28----------7.14
0--------18----------0.00

Perfects do quite a bit better than everyone else. However, the overall prediction percentage seems a bit low. I guess a lot of people didn't have much faith in Barret. We don't losr any zero brackets this time.

10 people fell off the Top 49. acesxhigh, aDarkShine, AKC12, alecscradle, Alex_McStrife21, Alls_Wills, AmatuerGenius, AndrewCFClarke, andre_akio and Arblaster did not have Barret winning.
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#134 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:14:16 PM | message detail
RacistFAQs confirmed
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#135 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:14:31 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Man, it's very difficult to try and get a gauge on when the third place character will put up a respectable performance and when they'll be completely left in the dust. We might conceivably have a situation where that visual novel character from yesterday looks better than Nightmare.


Not sure who you're talking about, Yo...
#136 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:14:44 PM | message detail
glad I did not bank on this match....
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#137 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:14:46 PM | message detail
From: ChenKenichiFan | Posted: 7/15/2013 12:12:13 AM | #126
Man, it's very difficult to try and get a gauge on when the third place character will put up a respectable performance and when they'll be completely left in the dust. We might conceivably have a situation where that visual novel character from yesterday looks better than Nightmare.

Touhou is not a VN. Archer is the only VN character in this.
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#138 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:15:28 PM | message detail
Phoenix is too far ahead, and Marth's game doesn't exactly have a massive fanbase like Draven or even Tiny Tina, so this is pretty over.

My bracket may stop being perfect, but shot by Phoenix in his first first place finish? Yes please!
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#139 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/14/2013 9:16:18 PM | message detail
Heh, shows what I know. What's Touhou then, just an RPG?
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#140 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/14/2013 9:16:35 PM | message detail
How is Marth/SSB during the night? I think Phoenix wins that time zone pretty easily.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#141 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/14/2013 9:16:47 PM | message detail
As someone who picked Marth, I think Phoenix has this unless he randomly collapses.
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#142 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:17:16 PM | message detail
Smash and Fire Emblem are both pretty weak at night. They're typical Nintendo.
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#143 | xp1337 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:17:50 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
As someone who picked Marth, I think Phoenix has this unless he randomly collapses.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too.
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#144 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:17:55 PM | message detail
Touhou is like Galaga. dodge projectiles, shoot projectiles. except with little girls firing magic.
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#145 | CybrMonkey | Posted 7/14/2013 9:17:56 PM | message detail
Professor Layton: casualbait?
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#146 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:18:23 PM | message detail
Marth is a day vote character so he needs to either stall or make a few cuts

Not with those updates though
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#147 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:18:32 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Heh, shows what I know. What's Touhou then, just an RPG?


Think Galaga but more hardcore (I just learned that yesterday)
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#148 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/14/2013 9:18:39 PM | message detail
Touhou is a bullet hell series with heavy anime lolicon undertones (ignore what every fan of that genre says, the girls are almost all loli), really good music and really fun gameplay.
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#149 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 9:18:42 PM | message detail
200 vote barrier breached, consistent lead spike. BEHOLD, THE POWER OF ATTORNEY!
#150 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:18:44 PM | message detail