Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1064

#51 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/14/2013 5:36:30 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.


Was always a bad pick, IMO. People that picked Vincent assumed he would be immune to FF7's downward trend, which is ridiculous.
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A Very Obvious Match: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122
#52 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 5:38:03 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.


Was always a bad pick, IMO. People that picked Vincent assumed he would be immune to FF7's downward trend, which is ridiculous.


People believe Vincent stands a chance only because Sonic is suedo-Nintendo.
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#53 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 5:58:04 PM | message detail
Looks like I'm no better at calling things than Nick is. I saw the fact that Reimu's drop seemed to be correlating more with a Barret rise than one for Layton, who was staying fairly steady, but now the percentages are barely moving. Three hours to go--can Barret reach 50%?
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#54 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/14/2013 6:23:27 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.


Was always a bad pick, IMO. People that picked Vincent assumed he would be immune to FF7's downward trend, which is ridiculous.


Or that they thought Sonic's downward spiral was faster than FF7's
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#55 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 6:42:41 PM | message detail
Match XIII: (2) Phoenix Wright vs. (17) Marth vs. (26) Nightmare

Previous Contest

Phoenix Wright – 2010
47.30% against Jecht

Marth – 2010
28.20% against Sephiroth

Nightmare – 2008
22.69% against Samus Aran, Crash Bandicoot and Raz
15.24% against Samus Aran, Ganondorf and Frog

Analysis

This is our second match where all three characters have a decent chance at winning and unlike Tharja/Tina/Juliet this match has stats to work with. A lot of things have happened to the characters since we last saw them, making this match all the more unpredictable.

Due to not being a board favourite or a Nintendo character it is not hard to see why Nightmare does not have much support, but despite that he is capable of winning this match. 28% and 30% against Solid Snake and Samus respectively places him at around the strength needed to win and depending on which stats you look at he could even be the strongest character going in the match. Of course a lot has happened since 2008, on the positive Soul Calibur V has been released, but the entire series has seemed to be headed downhill and Nightmare does not get the added benefit of his game being released just a couple of months before his match.

Unsurprisingly Phoenix Wright is the board favourite in the match and while his stats are a bit unreliable due to a potential Jecht’s over performance against Zelda and Zelda potentially getting SFF by Samus I feel he is the weakest of the three stat-wise. Lucky for him he has had a few things up his sleeve. The most notable thing is that he is a playable character in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 which will undoubtedly give him a boost due to exposure to fans that have never played the Phoenix Wright series. From what I heard he is not a great character, but the added recognition always helps.

While it is debated whether he benefitted from anti-votes against Sephiroth Marth has previously shown to be a low mid-carder. I expect Marth to be a bit stronger in this contest because Fire Emblem is currently at its highest popularity since Melee was released and Marth is mentioned a few times, among other things in Awakening along with being a playable character if you buy the DLC (which was free during the initial release).

Overall Phoenix Wright has the most to boost from, but given he is not a fan favourite in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3 and he is likely to have been the weakest before taking into account the boosts (no way is Jecht around the strength of the Final Fantasy X main cast) I do not feel the boost is enough to win. This being a night match will certainly help Phoenix and should he win in a nail-biter it will likely have been because of the time of day.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Marth > Phoenix Wright and Nightmare

charmander6000’s Prediction: Marth – 36.35%, Phoenix Wright – 34.53%, Nightmare – 29.12%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 9/10 Today's Picks: Dracula and Barret
#56 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 6:48:52 PM | message detail
What exactly are people basing FF7's downward spiral on? I hope it's not the Rivalry Rumble.

I'll admit that it's getting weaker, but it's not that much weaker. Trainers were a force in that contest sure, but people forget that the reason they lost the 3rd place was because of a rally that came from a Pokemon stream, in the last hour or so, iirc.
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#57 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/14/2013 7:04:42 PM | message detail
I had Barret at 51% in my Oracle so this is mostly what I was expecting. Looking forward to the next match, kinda expecting Nightmare to under perform.
#58 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 7:06:17 PM | message detail
Rivalry Rumble had really exaggerated results for some reason. Very few close matches.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#59 | SubDeity | Posted 7/14/2013 7:09:33 PM | message detail
I picked Vincent because I underrated FF7's fall (and forgot that niche guys fall faster than mains) and because I think Sonic is going to fall hard. I don't think a few "not garbage" games really salvage him.
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Play Der Langrisser.
#60 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 7/14/2013 7:27:45 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
still don't get it =)


http://fanfictionimg.tumblr.com/post/32027528457/neither-did-your-mother-luthor-mewtwo

Basically, trying to put horrible fanfic in picture form to show how ridiculous they are.
#61 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 7:31:28 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Or that they thought Sonic's downward spiral was faster than FF7's


Eh, there was no real reason to believe this. Since 2010, Sonic has actually started releasing well received and decently selling games again. He may not get big boosts from them, but at the very least, they'll let him maintain his current level, and that should be enough to beat Vincent and Bowser, barring some weird LFF.
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#62 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 7:32:32 PM | message detail
Also, just gonna throw this out there:

If Nightmare is anywhere close to first place at the freeze, he probably wins. He's up against Phoenix's board vote and Smash's board vote, so if he can withstand it and stay within reasonable distance, he probably wins.
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#63 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/14/2013 7:36:13 PM | message detail
As a Vincent-backer against Sonic/Bowser, today alone won't worry me. Barret's a newcomer so he can't represent any rise or fall of FF7 (though I do predict a fall), no matter how disappointing this performance is for him. I still expect Bowser/Sonic to have some sort of overlap, too.

I also want to see more from Sonic in this format; Sonic Team appeared significantly weaker in four-ways than one-on-one matches, so I don't think he's safe in three-ways yet just because he beat up Fei and Dan.
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
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#64 | AAAMitsugi | Posted 7/14/2013 7:55:45 PM | message detail
Of course the Crono/Pikachu match is in the daytime. Whether or not Magus is there, Pikachu > Crono is probably a real possibility.
#65 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 8:04:19 PM | message detail
Almost at 50%!
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#66 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 8:07:25 PM | message detail
Barret would easily be over 50% at this point if not for the Reimu rally. He hasn't had an hour under 50% since it died off.
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#67 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:12:01 PM | message detail
Phoenix/Edgeworth fell about 6% from their board votes in both their matches in the RR contest, and Phoenix himself about 5% against Jecht. With Nightmare's weak early vote, I'd think he'll be in with a chance if he's worth ~45% on Phoenix at the end of the board vote. Marth probably can't afford to be worth less than ~47-48% after the first few updates.
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#68 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 8:12:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Barret would easily be over 50% at this point if not for the Reimu rally. He hasn't had an hour under 50% since it died off.


There is some seriously shady crap going on according to the map. Unless Russia and Eastern Europe has a huge fanbase for anime-looking games I'm thinking Reimu's fans are taking advantage of the sheer number of anonymous proxy servers located over there.
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#69 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 8:16:39 PM | message detail
And here I thought anonymous proxy servers had their own separate country code.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#70 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/14/2013 8:25:09 PM | message detail
Overall Phoenix Wright has the most to boost from, but given he is not a fan favourite in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3


His was the only trailer to get a million views within the day. Less than a day in fact, I think it was like six to twelve hours.
#71 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 8:25:50 PM | message detail
Darn it, Barret. Why are you stalling out when you're so close to 50% now?
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#72 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:28:04 PM | message detail
His was the only trailer to get a million views within the day. Less than a day in fact, I think it was like six to twelve hours.

I mean now that the game was released he doesn't seem to be used often.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 9/10 Today's Picks: Dracula and Barret
#73 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:48:57 PM | message detail
Barret is almost to 50%... 2 updates remaining
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#74 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:49:09 PM | message detail
49.99%

It's time…
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#75 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 8:49:16 PM | message detail
49.99% with 10 minutes to go
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#76 | pjbasis | Posted 7/14/2013 8:52:12 PM | message detail
#77 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:53:35 PM | message detail
That'll have to be your crowning achievement in GameFAQs contest history, Barret, because I fear Dracula will be devouring you next round.
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We are living our lives
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#78 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 8:54:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
Barret now at 50.001%!
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#79 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 8:55:26 PM | message detail
First character to finish with a whole number.

Barret, you cool.
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#80 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 8:56:07 PM | message detail
#81 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Phoenix at 71% when I voted

Dat board vote
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#82 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:27 PM | message detail
Phoenix is winning the board vote!!!!!!
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#83 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted






Phoenix Wright

61.64%

45 Votes

Your Pick





Marth

28.77%

21 Votes





Nightmare

9.59%

7 Votes

Total Votes: 73
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POKEFEAR
#84 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:38 PM | message detail
66% when I voted for him.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#85 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:41 PM | message detail
That board vote never gets old.
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We are living our lives
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#86 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:46 PM | message detail
Wow Phoenix is flying early. Nightmare getting slaughtered by the board vote.
#87 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 9:00:51 PM | message detail
#88 | pjbasis | Posted 7/14/2013 9:01:07 PM | message detail
#89 | paulg235 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:01:18 PM | message detail
Nightmare will recover. The question is can Phoenix keep the lead.
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#90 | LOLContests | Posted 7/14/2013 9:01:21 PM | message detail
Where does one go to rally a Soul Calibur character?
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This is Yesmar.
#91 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:01:52 PM | message detail
Phoenix won the 1st minute by 34 votes. Hmm.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#92 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/14/2013 9:01:55 PM | message detail
EVO stream?

but Phoenix and Marth are also fighting game characters
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~Zen
#93 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:02 PM | message detail
Man this might be tight. Nightmare getting killed though.
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#94 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:02 PM | message detail
Nightmare looking terrible even with a bad board vote
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 11/12 Today's Picks: Marth and Vincent
#95 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:04 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is using his Objection super on Marth and Nightmare!

Marth and Nightmare are GUILTY!
#96 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:27 PM | message detail
Is it too early in the match to say "there goes my bracket?" (and 4 of my Expert points)
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#97 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:43 PM | message detail
Christ, just how much has Nightmare fallen since our last data on him.
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Crucifying my Oracle average one match at a time
#98 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/14/2013 9:02:58 PM | message detail
marth gonna explode next update
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nt
#99 | JJH777 | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:16 PM | message detail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zb7jrb6l4MU
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#100 | anondum | Posted 7/14/2013 9:03:19 PM | message detail
you guys are putting too much stock in the board vote