Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1064

#1 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/14/2013 12:13:54 PM | message detail
So from this Barret match, it's now obvious that Shepard > Aerith, Mewtwo > Vincent, Ryu H > Zack, Dragonborn > Tifa, Kirby > Sephiroth, and Pikachu > Cloud.

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A = Strongest Character
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To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
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SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 12:14:35 PM | message detail
More like RacistFAQs Stats and Discussion
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#3 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 12:33:19 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
So from this Barret match, it's now obvious that Shepard > Aerith, Mewtwo > Vincent, Ryu H > Zack, Dragonborn > Tifa, Kirby > Sephiroth, and Pikachu > Cloud.


Who? That match isn't happening. If Tifa's weak enough to lose in Round 2 with a fellow FF female to SFF and a piece of fodder that ends up in third place even with FF SFF, then she doesn't have a prayer of getting past Chun-Li in the first place.

Also, that match isn't happening, not because Tifa won't make Round 2, but because Dragonborn won't. I'm pretty sure I'd rate him no better than seventh in that entire ninepack.
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#4 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 12:35:59 PM | message detail
#5 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 12:36:17 PM | message detail
#6 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 12:37:02 PM | message detail
LOL Chief
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#7 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/14/2013 12:37:06 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I'm pretty sure I'd rate him no better than seventh in that entire ninepack.


...really?

Skyrim is kind of a big deal.
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#8 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/14/2013 12:38:59 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
So from this Barret match, it's now obvious that Shepard > Aerith, Mewtwo > Vincent, Ryu H > Zack, Dragonborn > Tifa, Kirby > Sephiroth, and Pikachu > Cloud.


Who? That match isn't happening, because Cloud is done for against Senator Armstrong.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#9 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 12:40:13 PM | message detail
Barret isn't that weak to tell the truth.If you are a casual gamer who would have you heard more?That is right Layton.So he isn't doing that bad.
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#10 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/14/2013 12:42:33 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3774

If the mascot of the Fallout series can put up a decent performance against Leon, the protagonist of one of the biggest games of this site for the past gen should put up a decent performance, at the very least.

Unless s/he gets a Redguard pic, of course.
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#11 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/14/2013 12:43:18 PM | message detail
were we not all taking Ryu > Zack already
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#12 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 12:44:46 PM | message detail
I believe in ZackFAQs.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#13 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/14/2013 12:45:23 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3804
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3831

Unless you think Kefka hurts him a huge amount AND there really is a large FF7 fall. Ryu H doesn't have any reason to boost in the past three years.
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#14 | Xuxon | Posted 7/14/2013 12:47:41 PM | message detail
that isn't Ryu H's real strength. he got killed due to sprite round.

but yeah i do think Kefka hurts Zack a ton. after Hero > Rinoa i feel pretty good about Ryu taking that.
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#15 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/14/2013 12:48:04 PM | message detail
I was mostly betting on the Kefka thing
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For your SuperNiceDog.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
#16 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/14/2013 12:48:35 PM | message detail
Zack has less plausible boosts than ryu

Ninja gaiden and its sequels have been ported to every console ever and NG1 was free on ps+ not too long ago

And there have been some new dead or alives, one of which may be free to play maybe
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~Zen
#17 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/14/2013 12:49:29 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, I forgot this was Ryu H's real strength.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3752
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#18 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 12:49:34 PM | message detail
Yeah but everyone hated NG3

Dead or Alive reminds me of the controversy over his match pics in 2004

Ryu Arabusa the best
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#19 | KommunistKoala | Posted 7/14/2013 12:49:55 PM | message detail
#20 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/14/2013 12:49:56 PM | message detail
Crash is legit he beat ulala
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~Zen
#21 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 12:50:05 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Oh yeah, I forgot this was Ryu H's real strength.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3752


Hey man, that's the Wheatley killer right there. Nothin' to sneeze at!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#22 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/14/2013 12:57:26 PM | message detail
Speaking of that match, is anyone actually going for Vercetti? He seems an afterthought compared to Wheatley and Crash, though if he still has some of his old strength he wouldn't break a sweat in this one. Of course, that's a pretty big "if."
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#23 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 1:03:41 PM | message detail
Regaro_Ukiera posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I'm pretty sure I'd rate him no better than seventh in that entire ninepack.


...really?

Skyrim is kind of a big deal.


Games =/= Characters. Dragonborn is an AFGNCAAP, and even "Dragonborn" isn't really its name so much as a title. Maybe I'm underestimating it too much, but I'm expecting a lot less out of Dragonborn here than I'd expect out of Skyrim itself in a Games Contest.
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RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#24 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/14/2013 1:05:04 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Speaking of that match, is anyone actually going for Vercetti? He seems an afterthought compared to Wheatley and Crash, though if he still has some of his old strength he wouldn't break a sweat in this one. Of course, that's a pretty big "if."


Last time we saw Vercetti, he was getting doubled by Yuna. I guess you could argue Chief had some weird effect on him, but yeah, not a strong showing.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#25 | tgs2 | Posted 7/14/2013 1:09:37 PM | message detail
Getting doubled by Yuna is probably still enough to beat Crash considering Crash's previous performances.

After that Draven rally, we could perhaps see Wheatley win due to a (smaller) Valve rally if he falls behind.
#26 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/14/2013 1:11:50 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Regaro_Ukiera posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I'm pretty sure I'd rate him no better than seventh in that entire ninepack.


...really?

Skyrim is kind of a big deal.


Games =/= Characters. Dragonborn is an AFGNCAAP, and even "Dragonborn" isn't really its name so much as a title. Maybe I'm underestimating it too much, but I'm expecting a lot less out of Dragonborn here than I'd expect out of Skyrim itself in a Games Contest.


what the hell is that acronym
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For your SuperNiceDog.
At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza
#27 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 7/14/2013 2:10:13 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Regaro_Ukiera posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I'm pretty sure I'd rate him no better than seventh in that entire ninepack.


...really?

Skyrim is kind of a big deal.


Games =/= Characters. Dragonborn is an AFGNCAAP, and even "Dragonborn" isn't really its name so much as a title. Maybe I'm underestimating it too much, but I'm expecting a lot less out of Dragonborn here than I'd expect out of Skyrim itself in a Games Contest.


what the hell is that acronym


Ageless-Faceless-Gender-Neutral-Culturally-Ambiguous-Adventure-Person
#28 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/14/2013 2:12:07 PM | message detail
Pikachu has 0% chance of getting to the point he could meet Cloud
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#29 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/14/2013 2:18:59 PM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Pikachu has 0% chance of getting to the point he could meet Cloud


It depends if Magus wins his match or if that one goes to Otacon. Crono/Pikachu/Magus could end up with SFF that end up giving Pikachu the win. Crono/Pikachu/Otacon should be an easy win for Crono though.
#30 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 2:49:11 PM | message detail
...That's not how this works. You can't assume that FFVII has deboosted and then turn around and say that Crono beats Pikachu in a day match if Magus isn't there. You can't even make a statement that Pikachu stands a chance against Cloud and not assume that he doesn't slay Crono in a 1v1 night match. I know, the "Pikachu > Cloud" thing was a joke, but Pikachu > Crono is reality, and I hope Otacon beats Magus because I'm tired of seeing Crono placed in spots where he has excuses for losing. In Rivalry Rumble they had him face a Noble Niner in the first round. CBVIII, his bracket placement was close enough to Sephiroth's that he'd be guaranteed no more than two wins even if he was strong, and his first opponent was a newcomer so any result other than the Missingno-Crono winner losing to Yoshi would've led to Crono still having a claim for strength (The 1v1 chain is still a closed circle; it just now includes 10 total characters instead of just the Noble Nine). 2008 gave him one plum match after another to look good--nothing threatening in Round 1, defending champion L-Block joining in Round 2 (although the presence of legitimate high midcarder Ryu made this a legitimately dangerous match), nothing thought to be stronger than whoever got dismissed in third place in R2 joining in Round 3, and then Samus and Vincent joining the fray in Round 4. Literally all he had to do to not look worse than he had the previous year was avoid losing to L-Block/Ryu. And he managed to exceed expectations by beating Vincent, leading into a match where Link/Mario/Samus SFFed each other to allow him a win over characters far stronger than he was.
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#31 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/14/2013 3:09:49 PM | message detail
Zabie_W posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
Pikachu has 0% chance of getting to the point he could meet Cloud


It depends if Magus wins his match or if that one goes to Otacon. Crono/Pikachu/Magus could end up with SFF that end up giving Pikachu the win. Crono/Pikachu/Otacon should be an easy win for Crono though.


Pikachu doesn't get to Cloud just by beatimg Crono though. The following round he's up against Sora, who would probably beat Pikachu 1v1 and to make things worse for Pikachu, it's likely we'll see Fox or Blue there as the third entrant.
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#32 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 3:18:56 PM | message detail
Someone said that Caim had a 3 vote update.So in this contest we had the biggest comeback in contest history and the smallest vote update in contest history.Awesome.
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#33 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/14/2013 3:47:29 PM | message detail
Caim got a 2 vote update
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#34 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:07:52 PM | message detail
2?Nice.So 2 records so far and we are in division 2.Wonder if we will see more records beeing broken?
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#35 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 4:20:08 PM | message detail
Who would win, Sora vs. Kirby?
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#36 | Kibago | Posted 7/14/2013 4:27:07 PM | message detail
Pikachu could absolutely be the strongest character out of Pikachu+Crono+Sora, which means he can win his division.
I was honestly surprised that Sora was so favored on this board. We're years removed from him having any relevance and now there's a few dozen KH games that no one liked between now and KH2. I think I would have taken anyone even close to him in strength to upset him this year
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#37 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:30:17 PM | message detail
But there are KH games so that means that he is still well known.
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#38 | swordz9 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:31:53 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts 3 was finally revealed which was probably enough for people to think Sora will do pretty well this year.
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#39 | t_kizzle | Posted 7/14/2013 4:32:12 PM | message detail
Sora is probably favored because of a combination of KH3 hype and people like me who have Blue in that match dragging Pikachu down.
#40 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/14/2013 4:32:56 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Who would win, Sora vs. Kirby?


Going with Sora here; KH has seen game releases and KH3 just got announced so there has to be more awareness of the series now.
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#41 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/14/2013 4:34:27 PM | message detail
i.imgur.com/RRxtZ1z.gif
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~Zen
#42 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:40:53 PM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
i.imgur.com/RRxtZ1z.gif


??? I don't get it
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#43 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/14/2013 4:43:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
#44 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:48:36 PM | message detail
still don't get it =)
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#45 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:50:12 PM | message detail
Barret is doing very well.If he finishes above 50% that would be awesome.
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#46 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 5:16:58 PM | message detail
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#47 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/14/2013 5:20:23 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
The more I think about it, Vincent Valentine > Sonic the Hedgehog/Bowser looks so wrong and stupid.


Bravo.

As for why Sora's favored, yeah, it's definitely SFF. Most people have either Fox or Blue in that match, and while Blue is definitely the bigger leech, Fox and Pikachu are both members of the original SSB roster, so they probably SFF a good bit as well.
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#48 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/14/2013 5:26:27 PM | message detail
Kibago posted...
Pikachu could absolutely be the strongest character out of Pikachu+Crono+Sora, which means he can win his division.
I was honestly surprised that Sora was so favored on this board. We're years removed from him having any relevance and now there's a few dozen KH games that no one liked between now and KH2. I think I would have taken anyone even close to him in strength to upset him this year


But Pikachu can't avoid LFF in the third match. There's no way Drake would be able to make Fox. If Blue can somehow use LFF to beat Fox, then no way Drake beats him either. Both Fox and Blue would drag Pikachu down to much to get past a KH3 hyped Sora.
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#49 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 5:34:06 PM | message detail
Looks like Barret might break 50%.
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Pts: 12/12 Today's Picks: Phoenix & Vincent
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#50 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/14/2013 5:35:48 PM | message detail
I have a feeling that Layton is pulling a Ratchet/Jecht!

Both are considered casual turbofodder, both opponents are from Final Fantasy (new characters at that), and both are considered to be under-performing against their competition. But maybe this is a good year for the Professor; the year that his pitiful performances against Isaac and that Master Chief fourpack are put behind him. Perhaps Barrett will pull a Jecht and perform better than his brethren Tifa on Sonic: http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/(1)Sonic_the_Hedgehog_vs_(3)Tifa_Lockheart_2005
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