Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1063

#201 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 9:44:53 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Not too impressed with Dracula, almost positive he is weaker than Alucard which gives Caim hope for being worse than Tanner, assuming he does not go up by much during the night.


Yeah, 60/40 on Lucina probably isn't that great.
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#202 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 9:45:56 PM | message detail
11 vote update heck yeah

3.59% update overall
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#203 | Achromatic | Posted 7/13/2013 9:46:03 PM | message detail
Dracula is going to ravage Lucina during the night.

And someone needs to write that fanfic.
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#204 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/13/2013 9:46:19 PM | message detail
Dracula is probably a respectable midcarder, or perhaps right around that "Boss Fodder Line," which is not bad at all for a 2013 newcomer. If anything, the STUPID variance of impossible-to-predict fodder we've already seen this week (Yuri gets 80% on Caim or whatever) makes characters like Dracula a breath of fresh air.
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#205 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/13/2013 9:46:24 PM | message detail
Dracula currently has 61.05% on Lucina. I feel very positive that Lucina is stronger than Tharja. Tharja should be doing worse than this against Dracula.
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#206 | scaryice | Posted 7/13/2013 9:48:52 PM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Change Dracula's name to something random.


Master D
#207 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/13/2013 9:49:35 PM | message detail
Lucina should definitely be a fair bit stronger than Tharja.
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#208 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/13/2013 9:51:57 PM | message detail
I loaded the poll on my mobile and I got worried about the match when I saw Fire Emblem girl's percentage.

Then I scrolled down and saw the reason for that big percentage is because of the black hole of suck that is Caim.
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#209 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 9:54:25 PM | message detail
Oh right, trend chart:
Time | Sonic | Fei | Dan | Votes
0:05 | 63.40% | 22.80% | 13.80% | 500
1:00 | 66.48% | 19.96% | 13.56% | 4765
2:00 | 66.99% | 20.39% | 12.62% | 3908
3:00 | 65.77% | 20.21% | 14.02% | 3167
4:00 | 68.00% | 19.04% | 12.96% | 2931
5:00 | 66.35% | 19.00% | 14.65% | 2669
6:00 | 66.91% | 20.50% | 12.60% | 2493
7:00 | 66.62% | 19.51% | 13.87% | 2271
8:00 | 65.93% | 18.58% | 15.48% | 2002
9:00 | 64.75% | 22.23% | 13.02% | 1844
10:00 | 65.27% | 21.01% | 13.71% | 1794
11:00 | 66.05% | 21.40% | 12.54% | 1682
12:00 | 64.26% | 21.97% | 13.77% | 1648

This one goes pretty much as expected. Sonic is strong during the day, Fei is strong at night, and Dan is bad, no matter what time it is.

X-Stats:

Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Fei Fong Wong – 23.33%
Dan Hibiki – 16.95%
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#210 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/13/2013 10:11:01 PM | message detail
At the end of the first hour, we're already about 700 votes behind yesterday's MMX match, so today's match will be even lower than the MMX match.
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#211 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/13/2013 10:20:58 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Oh right, trend chart:
Time | Sonic | Fei | Dan | Votes
0:05 | 63.40% | 22.80% | 13.80% | 500
1:00 | 66.48% | 19.96% | 13.56% | 4765
2:00 | 66.99% | 20.39% | 12.62% | 3908
3:00 | 65.77% | 20.21% | 14.02% | 3167
4:00 | 68.00% | 19.04% | 12.96% | 2931
5:00 | 66.35% | 19.00% | 14.65% | 2669
6:00 | 66.91% | 20.50% | 12.60% | 2493
7:00 | 66.62% | 19.51% | 13.87% | 2271
8:00 | 65.93% | 18.58% | 15.48% | 2002
9:00 | 64.75% | 22.23% | 13.02% | 1844
10:00 | 65.27% | 21.01% | 13.71% | 1794
11:00 | 66.05% | 21.40% | 12.54% | 1682
12:00 | 64.26% | 21.97% | 13.77% | 1648

This one goes pretty much as expected. Sonic is strong during the day, Fei is strong at night, and Dan is bad, no matter what time it is.

X-Stats:

Sonic the Hedgehog – 50.00%
Fei Fong Wong – 23.33%
Dan Hibiki – 16.95%


Still find it funny that Dan benefits from the Pacific ASV, even in the summer on a weekend.
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#212 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 10:22:33 PM | message detail
So I have a question about Castlevania continuity.

CASTLEVANIA SPOILERS
.
.
.
So I just read that Gabriel Belmont unknowningly killed his wife. However, everything about Castlevania I'd read before said that Dracula hated humans because they killed his wife. What's with that? Is that a retcon?
.
.
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END SPOILERS
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#213 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/13/2013 10:23:39 PM | message detail
Lords of Shadow is a reboot, its story has nothing to do with the other games.
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#214 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/13/2013 10:28:06 PM | message detail
So assuming Link 70/30s Sonic in the semifinals (if Sonic even makes it there), what does Sonic need to get on Dracula next round to push Caim below Tanner?
#215 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 10:32:29 PM | message detail
8 vote update

3.03% update

C'mon 0 vote update
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#216 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/13/2013 10:57:16 PM | message detail
Time | Sonic | Fei | Dan | Votes
0:05 | 63.40% | 22.80% | 13.80% | 500
1:00 | 66.48% | 19.96% | 13.56% | 4765
2:00 | 66.99% | 20.39% | 12.62% | 3908
3:00 | 65.77% | 20.21% | 14.02% | 3167
4:00 | 68.00% | 19.04% | 12.96% | 2931
5:00 | 66.35% | 19.00% | 14.65% | 2669
6:00 | 66.91% | 20.50% | 12.60% | 2493
7:00 | 66.62% | 19.51% | 13.87% | 2271
8:00 | 65.93% | 18.58% | 15.48% | 2002
9:00 | 64.75% | 22.23% | 13.02% | 1844
10:00 | 65.27% | 21.01% | 13.71% | 1794
11:00 | 66.05% | 21.40% | 12.54% | 1682
12:00 | 64.26% | 21.97% | 13.77% | 1648

Where is the page that generates this stats data, could you please provide a link? Thanks!
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Point Total: 10/10. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Dracula Day: Barrett
#217 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 10:57:31 PM | message detail
GANON1025 posted...
Lords of Shadow is a reboot, its story has nothing to do with the other games.

Ah OK, thanks. So does that mean -
CASTLEVANIA SPOILERS
.
.
.
Trevor Belmont being Alucard is also a new thing? They were different characters before?
.
.

END SPOILERS
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#218 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 11:00:05 PM | message detail
Oh, I have a spreadsheet I use to make those charts. It's not on a website or anything.
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#219 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/13/2013 11:06:26 PM | message detail
hellfire104 posted...
Time | Sonic | Fei | Dan | Votes
0:05 | 63.40% | 22.80% | 13.80% | 500
1:00 | 66.48% | 19.96% | 13.56% | 4765
2:00 | 66.99% | 20.39% | 12.62% | 3908
3:00 | 65.77% | 20.21% | 14.02% | 3167
4:00 | 68.00% | 19.04% | 12.96% | 2931
5:00 | 66.35% | 19.00% | 14.65% | 2669
6:00 | 66.91% | 20.50% | 12.60% | 2493
7:00 | 66.62% | 19.51% | 13.87% | 2271
8:00 | 65.93% | 18.58% | 15.48% | 2002
9:00 | 64.75% | 22.23% | 13.02% | 1844
10:00 | 65.27% | 21.01% | 13.71% | 1794
11:00 | 66.05% | 21.40% | 12.54% | 1682
12:00 | 64.26% | 21.97% | 13.77% | 1648

Where is the page that generates this stats data, could you please provide a link? Thanks!


You can find the poll update tracker here:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/64
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#220 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/13/2013 11:06:38 PM | message detail
Okay. Making an Excel spreadsheet for that shouldn't be too hard but there used to be a website that generated it automatically. Does that website still exist? This was a few years ago when the last big contest went down in 2010 I think.
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Point Total: 10/10. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Dracula Day: Barrett
#221 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 11:07:37 PM | message detail
Oh, if you're looking for the updater that keeps track of 5 minute updates, then yeah, use the link TRE provided.

Also that was almost a 10% update for Caim. That would've been a tragedy.
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#222 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 11:09:28 PM | message detail
Caim just got 9.9%. I cry foul.

Clearly proxy vote stuffers must be involved.
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#223 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 11:10:38 PM | message detail
Like I said, if you want Allen to investigate, I'm sure it'd only take him a few minutes to check out all 450 votes...!

This would be the easiest stuffing investigation he's ever done!
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#224 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/13/2013 11:17:31 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
GANON1025 posted...
Lords of Shadow is a reboot, its story has nothing to do with the other games.

Ah OK, thanks. So does that mean -
CASTLEVANIA SPOILERS
.
.
.
Trevor Belmont being Alucard is also a new thing? They were different characters before?
.
.

END SPOILERS


Yes. In Castlevania 3 you can actually use Trevor and Alucard together
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#225 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/13/2013 11:18:47 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
I doubt Caim will be any worse than Welkin and he got around 10% on a guy stronger than Dracula.


You say that...
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#226 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/13/2013 11:23:45 PM | message detail
Looks like Caim isn't even going to get close to 2000 votes.

Can he pull a Draven with his massive fanbase?!!?!!?!111/!??!/1/
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#227 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/13/2013 11:30:14 PM | message detail
Caim worked his way up to over 9% on Dracula. I'm disappointed.
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#228 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 12:09:25 AM | message detail
LOL Caim!
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Pts: 10/10 Today's Picks: Dracula & Barret Wallace
IX: Link/VV/BB/SS/Cloud/Sora/Samus/Mario/Zard
#229 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/14/2013 12:13:21 AM | message detail
This Caim is so...wow
I should've rallied for some minor characters that would do better
The Kid from Bastion or Ballos from Cave Story
#230 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/14/2013 12:15:01 AM | message detail
6 vote update
#231 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 12:16:13 AM | message detail
Dracula vs. Barret, who you got?
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Pts: 10/10 Today's Picks: Dracula & Barret Wallace
IX: Link/VV/BB/SS/Cloud/Sora/Samus/Mario/Zard
#232 | Sorozone | Posted 7/14/2013 12:20:43 AM | message detail
Barret has to really impress for me to take him. Layton and Touhou character I would think to be a lot weaker than Lucina and f***ing Caim. Even with how abysmal Caim is being here.
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#233 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/14/2013 1:34:58 AM | message detail
I just realized that if current gaming trends continue, MARIO will be the strongest Noble Niner. Because if you had to order them based on current relevance:

Mario
Sonic
Link
*gap*
Samus
Snake
Cloud
*gap*
Sephiroth
Mega Man
Crono

Not really sure on this though.
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#234 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/14/2013 1:38:48 AM | message detail
Link might be getting weaker,true (though he is still the strongest)
We will need to wait for LttP2...if it can undone the damage the previous handheld games did
#235 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 1:42:19 AM | message detail
It would take many, many years for Mario to catch up to Link
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#236 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/14/2013 2:03:04 AM | message detail
Phoenix>Phoenix>Nightmare
Most efficient pick?
#237 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/14/2013 2:19:06 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Phoenix>Phoenix>Nightmare
Most efficient pick?

P>M>N: +2
M>P>N: 0
M>N>P: -6
N>M>P: -6
P>N>M: 0
N>P>M: -2

You only get points (and even then only 2) if it goes Phoenix > Marth > Nightmare, and you risk losing points if Nick gets last or Nightmare wins. If you guess Phoenix > Marth > Nightmare:

P>M>N: +6
M>P>N: -4
M>N>P: -6
N>M>P: -2
P>N>M: 0
N>P>M: -6

In both cases you have a random expected payoff of -2 points, or, if you think Nightmare is guaranteed last, +2. Since you're not on the leaderboard, you need to not play it safe if you want to win.
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#238 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/14/2013 2:45:43 AM | message detail
Welkin vs. Caim, who you got?
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Pts: 11/11 Today's Picks: Dracula & Barret Wallace
IX: Link/VV/BB/SS/Cloud/Sora/Samus/Mario/Zard
#239 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/14/2013 2:52:34 AM | message detail
Welkin.
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#240 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/14/2013 3:20:47 AM | message detail
Lucina looking pretty good here, makes me feel good about taking Chrom, but Dracula, DAMN. He lived up to the hype. And Caim is just pathetic. I still think I'd have him over Tanner though.
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#241 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/14/2013 3:37:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
Well, this is a really depressing performance as a Caim fan.

http://lparchive.org/Drakengard/
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#242 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/14/2013 3:52:08 AM | message detail | (edited)
I like how this Tanner dude is getting ripped on by all of us.

Looking him up...not only is he the main character of an entire series, but his first name is John and his series recently got revived with Driver: San Francisco. I say we get him into our next 243-character contest!
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#243 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/14/2013 4:10:26 AM | message detail
Thanks to the night vote, Caim looks slightly better now against Dracula. Caim has over 10% in several different European countries. The worst update for Caim was 3 votes, but a 0 vote update might have been possible if he didn't have a good Europe vote.
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#244 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 7/14/2013 4:16:07 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Thanks to the night vote, Caim looks slightly better now against Dracula. Caim has over 10% in several different European countries. The worst update for Caim was 3 votes, but a 0 vote update might have been possible if he didn't have a good Europe vote.


"Good Europe vote"

"3 vote update"

Those should not be in the same sentence Luster.
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#245 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/14/2013 4:27:46 AM | message detail
XD at ngirl.
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#246 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:37:36 AM | message detail
3 vote update...?
Now im sad this is probably the lowest we will get in the contest
Don't think a 0 votes update is possible
#247 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:39:47 AM | message detail
3 vote update?Official worst update ever in a contest.
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#248 | Whiskey_Nick (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/14/2013 4:42:12 AM | message detail
Keep in mind that Luster still thinks Europe is only a band. So 3 votes is pretty great.
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#249 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/14/2013 4:57:25 AM | message detail
Sonic's match was the only match so far that we didn't lose anyone from the leaderboard.Nice.
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#250 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/14/2013 5:12:55 AM | message detail
I really was expecting a better performance from Lucina, but she's not winning even on Japan. Sadface. And lol Caim