Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1063

#1 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 7/13/2013 12:42:53 PM | message detail
CALLED


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/13/2013 1:23:29 PM | message detail | (edited)
I chose against Phoenix in bracket, but with these low votals I think that dedicated fanbase could be a lot more significant.

I realize a lot of people chose him anyways, but I can never trust Phoenix to perform.
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#3 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/13/2013 1:32:30 PM | message detail
2nd biggest blowout in this contest so far.
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#4 | Sorozone | Posted 7/13/2013 1:33:37 PM | message detail
I had Dan in 2nd. "oops".
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#5 | Kibago | Posted 7/13/2013 1:36:49 PM | message detail
RE: MM/Magikarp - it's not really about Mega Man's strength. all Magikarp needs is to be a little bit stronger than Missingno in his debut.
I don't think this is likely but I can think of reasons why it would be possible
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#6 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/13/2013 1:45:33 PM | message detail | (edited)
I'm banking on Phoenix to overperform this contest. Well, accidentally. Seeing as I somehow picked him over Vincent. Something I missed until it was too late.

Anyway, I don't know what to think about the Layton-Barret-Remiu match. I think I have Barret in my bracket (I'll have to log in to my other account to check that), but seeing as Layton got rofl-stomped in his 4-way and just got above 30% on Isaac, he's basically fodder. And FF7 characters always perform well. At least that's my reasoning.
EDIT: After checking the lol x-stats, Layton finished with 12.77% in 2010. Confirmed turbo-fodder.
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#7 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/13/2013 2:03:17 PM | message detail
I think that Magikarp got so many votes in the pre-contest poll because he has real strength, but that a lot of people are going to see the match and say "Wait, Mega Man?! Sorry Karp!"
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#8 | Advokaiser | Posted 7/13/2013 2:09:44 PM | message detail
Legitimate question: Why is Magikarp so freaking strong?
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#9 | Sorozone | Posted 7/13/2013 2:12:29 PM | message detail
Probably draws a fair share of joke votes, since ya'know he is kind of a joke.
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#10 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/13/2013 2:14:34 PM | message detail
He's that lovable pokemon. You can't hate him because he's so harmless, and his splash is a pokemon classic. He's literally useless and a garbage tier pokemon, but he's so derpy looking and innocent that you can't dislike him.

And then he evolves into f***ing GYARADOS! One of the strongest pokemon in RBY.

It's all just comical, which is why people love Magikarp.
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#11 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/13/2013 2:15:24 PM | message detail
I would pick Magikarp over anyone in the contest aside from Mega Man tbh
He suffered enough :(
#12 | Kibago | Posted 7/13/2013 2:19:15 PM | message detail
it also helps that Magikarp is pretty close to 'essential' - I can't imagine playing RBY or watching the show and not being familiar with him and his "helpless fish to roaring sea monster" tale. You have the guy offering to sell you Magikarp, it's the only thing you can catch with the first fishing rod = it's hard to miss him.

this is one reason why I'd be at least a bit curious to see how Pidgey and Rattata would do in the contest (probably the highest possible familiarity scores for RBY, but they aren't very liked)
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#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 2:36:12 PM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
I realize a lot of people chose him anyways, but I can never trust Phoenix to perform.


When has Phoenix failed to meet expectations?

He's never lost when he's actually been favored to win.
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#14 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/13/2013 3:45:14 PM | message detail
We got Ryu, Chun-Li, Dan, and Poison.

Ken, M. Bison, Sakura, Vega, Dhalsim, E. Honda... one of these characters need to get into the next contest.
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#15 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:46:53 PM | message detail
Bison needs to come back at some point. He's way overdue.
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#16 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 4:15:42 PM | message detail
Kibago posted...
RE: MM/Magikarp - it's not really about Mega Man's strength. all Magikarp needs is to be a little bit stronger than Missingno in his debut.
I don't think this is likely but I can think of reasons why it would be possible

There are people who actually picked Magikarp over Mega Man? Did I miss something?

What is the rationale for that? I see no reason to think Magikarp has Missingno strength, which is what he needs to even stand a *chance* in that match.
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#17 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:17:07 PM | message detail
It's coming from this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5141
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#18 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/13/2013 4:17:41 PM | message detail
Mega Man/X > Pokemon
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Pts: 10/10 Today's Picks: Dracula & Barret Wallace
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#19 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/13/2013 4:17:59 PM | message detail
I guess Akuma's still the strongest post-SF2 fighter available. Can anybody else in that category really contest him? Dan's falling on his face today and I don't think we've seen anybody else in a contest. Cammy's the only one who comes to mind, but I'm not enough of a SF-buff to guess if she's really a contender.
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#20 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:18:43 PM | message detail
Cammy would be the only one with a shot. No one introduced in Alpha, 3, or 4 would be worth anything.
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#21 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 4:18:51 PM | message detail
Alright, looking at the Guru,

http://www.thengamer.com/guru/

Match #72, literally no one picked Magikarp. So people do appear sane after all :)
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#22 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/13/2013 4:20:52 PM | message detail
Xuxon and Lopen picked Magikarp.
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Pts: 10/10 Today's Picks: Dracula & Barret Wallace
IX: Link/VV/BB/SS/Cloud/Sora/Samus/Mario/Zard
#23 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:21:21 PM | message detail
Not all of the brackets have been completely entered for the Guru yet.
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#24 | scaryice | Posted 7/13/2013 4:27:03 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
I guess Akuma's still the strongest post-SF2 fighter available. Can anybody else in that category really contest him? Dan's falling on his face today and I don't think we've seen anybody else in a contest. Cammy's the only one who comes to mind, but I'm not enough of a SF-buff to guess if she's really a contender.


Akuma/Cammy were both introduced in SF2. Unless you mean post World Warrior.
#25 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/13/2013 4:27:12 PM | message detail
Forget SF, I want to see more Mortal Kombat characters in this. It's time for Raiden. It's time for Reptile. It's time to step into THE CAGE.
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#26 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:28:24 PM | message detail
Needs more Shao Kahn.
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#27 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/13/2013 4:28:51 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Alright, looking at the Guru,

http://www.thengamer.com/guru/

Match #72, literally no one picked Magikarp. So people do appear sane after all :)


Probably because Magikarp is in Match #73.
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#28 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:32:35 PM | message detail
Totally serious, by the way. I think Shao Kahn would probably be the 3rd strongest MK character.
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#29 | scaryice | Posted 7/13/2013 4:33:38 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
We got Ryu, Chun-Li, Dan, and Poison.

Ken, M. Bison, Sakura, Vega, Dhalsim, E. Honda... one of these characters need to get into the next contest.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/73
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3395
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3967

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/840
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4828

Dhalsim/Honda/Zangief are the lowest tier of the 8 World Warriors. Blanka/Guile would probably be ok, but below Chun/Ken/Ryu.

Guile might be the best choice to nominate strength-wise, since he was by far the strongest character in the original version, and the Guile's music meme can only help.
#30 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:34:44 PM | message detail
Guile has a pretty decent chunk of the fanbase that hates him, so I doubt he'd be stronger than the guys we've seen so far, but he's probably the best one we haven't seen yet.
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#31 | scaryice | Posted 7/13/2013 4:36:14 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3396

Vega (Claw) might be stronger than Bison (Dictator). He certainly was a more popular character to use in SF2.
#32 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/13/2013 4:37:10 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Totally serious, by the way. I think Shao Kahn would probably be the 3rd strongest MK character.


I could get behind Shao Khan too.
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#33 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:37:44 PM | message detail
Yeah, Vega would probably be pretty decent, too.
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#34 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 4:43:22 PM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
creativename posted...
Alright, looking at the Guru,



Match #72, literally no one picked Magikarp. So people do appear sane after all :)


Probably because Magikarp is in Match #73.

Whatever, got the number wrong. It's all "Mega Man".

So I guess 2 people picked Magikarp, that's still almost unanimous. Magikarp ain't winning that match. Would be a massive upset.
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#35 | creativename | Posted 7/13/2013 4:45:41 PM | message detail
scaryice posted...


Vega (Claw) might be stronger than Bison (Dictator). He certainly was a more popular character to use in SF2.

I agree with this. Vega was more popular than Bison.

Plus due to the whole Mike Tyson nonsense, he gets the much cooler name. "Bison" was always a lame name for a final boss. If Bison was named Vega like he was supposed to be, he'd likely be a bit stronger.
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#36 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/13/2013 5:41:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
scaryice posted...
Dhalsim/Honda/Zangief are the lowest tier of the 8 World Warriors. Blanka/Guile would probably be ok, but below Chun/Ken/Ryu.


That's how I see it too. I'd throw in Cammy along with those two myself as I think she'd be around the same strength.

MoogleKupo141 posted...
Forget SF, I want to see more Mortal Kombat characters in this. It's time for Raiden. It's time for Reptile. It's time to step into THE CAGE.


How 'bout more of both? It would beat seeing multiple Tales, Touhou, & Visual Novel characters again. Heck, we've only seen more than 2 SF characters in the same contest ONCE before this year. There needs to be some mini-rallies going since second-tier fighting characters rarely get nomination support without them.
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#37 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/13/2013 6:39:07 PM | message detail
Raiden and Liu Kang would probably be the next two MK characters to conceivably make this contest as they are near faces of the franchise after the Lin Kuei ninjas. I'd peg them below Sub-Zero/Scorpion, though, but above the fodder line. Every other character would be fodder or very low midcard at best.
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#38 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 7/13/2013 6:41:22 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Cammy would be the only one with a shot. No one introduced in Alpha, 3, or 4 would be worth anything.


I wanna see Dudley, sometime, and Sakura. If there's two post-SF2 characters a lot of people like, it's the classy boxer and Ryu's fangirl.
#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 6:47:11 PM | message detail
No way Dudley or Sakura is strong. Dudley in particular would probably be close to Dan level. SF3 is going to be by far the weakest sub-series in SF.
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#40 | Advokaiser | Posted 7/13/2013 6:47:32 PM | message detail
Hmmm...

Am I the only one who sees Johnny Cage as the 3rd strongest MK character?
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#41 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 6:50:11 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1788

Very old poll, I know, but I'd say if it's not Shao Kahn, Raiden is probably 3rd strongest.

Maybe not after how horrendously stupid he was in MK9's story mode though, but I dunno how many people even played it, so it might not matter.
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#42 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 6:52:58 PM | message detail
Also, I updated the Winless Characters page, and we're now up to 64 worthless sacks of crap who have been in a minimum of two contests and have never gotten out of the first round! Several characters have already blown their chance to get removed from the list, like Jak, but there's still hope for some of these perennial losers!
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#43 | scaryice | Posted 7/13/2013 7:05:47 PM | message detail
Maybe Shang Tsung for third?
#44 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/13/2013 7:08:58 PM | message detail
...People seriously think anyone but Cage would be the strongest MK character behind Scorp/Sub?
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#45 | Baseman (Moderator) | Posted 7/13/2013 7:24:54 PM | message detail
Any thought on the Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare match coming up? I've prolly missed the discussion.
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#46 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 7:30:15 PM | message detail
Phoenix > Marth > Nightmare is the favorite on the board, but a lot of people have Marth winning as well. Most people seem to think Nightmare gets 3rd either way.
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#47 | STEROLIZER | Posted 7/13/2013 7:49:19 PM | message detail
Advokaiser posted...
Hmmm...

Am I the only one who sees Johnny Cage as the 3rd strongest MK character?


Nope...he is.

Liu Kang may have been the early hero but he is not very popular. The MK team realizes this as well...hence how he's never pushed.

I do believe Cage, Kahn, Raiden, Kitana, Ermac, and Noob Saibot would all be above fodder.

Reptile, Kung Lao, and maybe Liu Kang could be competetive contest fodder.

Goro, Cyrax, Mileena, Baraka, and the remaining ninjas Rain and Smoke could beat some of the current fodder.

The remaining originals Sonya, Kano, and Shang Tsung would lose to everyone in this contest but nobody would scoff if they made it in.
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#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/13/2013 7:53:28 PM | message detail
Guile/Vega/Blanka for Street Fighter

Cage/Raiden/Liu/Shang/Reptile for Mortal Kombat
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#49 | Advokaiser | Posted 7/13/2013 7:54:00 PM | message detail
Too bad Sonya is so weak.

Also, not that I care much but Raiden > Kung Lao > Kano for me.
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#50 | spooky96 | Posted 7/13/2013 8:05:54 PM | message detail
Magikarp can potentially beat a lot of characters through joke votes, but the red fish is up against Mega Man, so I don't think Magikarp has a shot at winning. Any N9er or near Elites such as Vincent or Squall can take on Magikarp no problem.