Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1062

#351 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/13/2013 2:50:33 AM | message detail
I think it remains to be seen if Chrono Trigger is going to be any weaker than they have been. Votals are down, cult JRPGs characters have been doing decent so far, and it seems like 90s nostalgia is one of the biggest forces on this site.

I'm not writing them off just yet.
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#352 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:01:32 AM | message detail
Nice show for MMX.

I'm also glad I'm not the only one weeping over his Ryu > MMX pick.

someone get the word out to EVO this weekend or something
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#353 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 3:04:52 AM | message detail
I was always expecting Mega Man X to look better indirectly so yeah I'm not sure I'm bailing on the upset yet. I think I'm only going to panic if it seems like there's a Mega Man boost across the board... which there might be SMASH HYPE or whatever.
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#354 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:16:17 AM | message detail
Oh right, trend chart for yesterday:

Time | Yuri | Ryu | Face | Votes
0:05 | 30.45% | 51.98% | 17.57% | 404
1:00 | 26.27% | 56.50% | 17.23% | 5154
2:00 | 25.90% | 56.46% | 17.63% | 3953
3:00 | 26.26% | 56.29% | 17.45% | 3370
4:00 | 26.99% | 56.44% | 16.57% | 3120
5:00 | 26.84% | 54.95% | 18.21% | 2779
6:00 | 27.25% | 55.57% | 17.18% | 2613
7:00 | 27.53% | 55.14% | 17.33% | 2441
8:00 | 26.57% | 55.15% | 18.28% | 2183
9:00 | 25.11% | 58.12% | 16.77% | 1872
10:00 | 25.89% | 55.72% | 18.39% | 1827
11:00 | 26.84% | 56.25% | 16.91% | 1792
12:00 | 24.88% | 58.19% | 16.94% | 1600

Ryu reestablishes last hour dominance and generally does his best work at night. Yuri's best time was the early evening, and Face was kinda inconsistent with his hours.

X-Stats:

Ryu – 50.00%
Yuri Lowell – 31.97%
Face McShooty – 23.65%

Ryu's prediction percentage was 82.06%.
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#355 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/13/2013 3:40:24 AM | message detail
Wow Jigglypuff, what a disappointment.

I really hope this doesn't spell doom for all the pokémon upsets.
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#356 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:41:35 AM | message detail
I hope it does, but I know it doesn't.
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#357 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/13/2013 3:49:24 AM | message detail
Fei Fong Wong.. or Dan Hibiki?
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#358 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/13/2013 3:50:12 AM | message detail
Well I don't know, I don't understand if this match is a case Jigglypuff sucking (possible but weird) or X being that much stronger.
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#359 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:50:18 AM | message detail
Fei. Won't even be close.
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#360 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/13/2013 3:51:21 AM | message detail
Wow, X almost tripling Jiggly.

A lot of possible factors, of course, but I'll just jump to conclusions and call MEGA MAN BOOST MEGA MAN > LINK WATCH THE F*** OUT
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#361 | Sorozone | Posted 7/13/2013 3:51:38 AM | message detail
She's probably as weak as she appears. She doesn't have anything going for her. Her popularity is in Japan, and no one in Smash cares.

The other Pokemon dudes should be fine, the only one that springs to mind that may be in trouble is Lugia. After what Jak did, Sly might get some votes as well.
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#362 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:52:37 AM | message detail
Sly Cooper is not the same level of iconic Jak is and never was. The only Sony mascots who matter are Crash, Jak, and Ratchet.
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#363 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 3:53:19 AM | message detail
Honestly we had warning signs that Jiggly was going to be bad from that vote in anyway. I mean you could say she got SFFed there but eh. Pokemon has enough votes to go around in a 9 way fodder poll that that was in no way a given.
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#364 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/13/2013 3:54:30 AM | message detail
I'm not worried in the slightest about Lugia's chances honestly.
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#365 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/13/2013 3:55:32 AM | message detail
SuorGenoveffa posted...
Wow Jigglypuff, what a disappointment.

I really hope this doesn't spell doom for all the pokémon upsets.


Big Daddy > Pikachu.
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#366 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 3:56:12 AM | message detail | (edited)
But yeah the real telling thing here is that Jiggly's barely doubling Welkin. Welkin's probably super fodder like bottom 5% of the field fodder so if you can't easily double him you're probably pretty damn weak.
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#367 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:56:59 AM | message detail
Technically Jiggly's got like 70% on him, but that's still not great.
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#368 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/13/2013 3:57:19 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Fei. Won't even be close.

You sure? Xenogears' playrate is pretty eh, and Dan has at least appeared in some of the Marvel vs. series.

Don't really have a good read on Fei but that one four-way he was in looks.. eh.
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#369 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 3:59:39 AM | message detail
Fei's one match was halfway decent. Dan's lone contest appearance features him getting quadrupled by Chris and Wesker, if you want to take that to mean anything.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3691

This is also a pretty pathetic showing.
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#370 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/13/2013 4:00:23 AM | message detail
Now it seems that my upset pick Pikachu>Crono will not happen.
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#371 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/13/2013 4:00:57 AM | message detail
Getting over 40% on Knuckles is enough to beat Dan, probably.

Granted Fei was the obvious stand-out in that poll which probably helped
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#372 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:01:39 AM | message detail
Again, don't take much meaning out of this match when it comes to Pokemon as a whole. Pokemon is (unfortunately) going to be okay.
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#373 | Lopen | Posted 7/13/2013 4:02:02 AM | message detail
Dan got quadrupled by Chris and Wesker what is this match and why do--

Oh rivalry rumble lol
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#374 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:02:10 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Getting over 40% on Knuckles is enough to beat Dan, probably.

Granted Fei was the obvious stand-out in that poll which probably helped


I'm sure it helped, but I don't think Dan would match it.
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#375 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/13/2013 4:12:05 AM | message detail
The best part? Welkin still looks better than Alan Wake.
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#376 | Rai_Jin | Posted 7/13/2013 4:50:08 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Sly Cooper is not the same level of iconic Jak is and never was. The only Sony mascots who matter are Crash, Jak, and Ratchet.


Spyro?
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#377 | Bospsychopaat | Posted 7/13/2013 4:50:31 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#378 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 4:51:19 AM | message detail
Spyro doesn't matter either.
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#379 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:10:35 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
ctesjbuvf posted...
Crono would beat Pikachu and Zero no doubt. The only reason he can lose to Pikachu is because Magus is the worst possible anchor for him. If Otacon is there, Crono wins.

Nah, Frog is probably worse. Both Frog and Magus are likely weaksauce now, but Magus especially has become garbage, and he was always weaker than Frog IIRC.

I seriously don't think Magus even hurts him that bad - Magus is weak, plus he'd get SFF'd down to holy hell. It just so happens that this is likely enough to cost him the match, only because him and Pikachu are so close in strength.

I'd like to say Crono beats Pikachu straight up...but we don't know how much he's declined. I think Missingingno>Pikachu, so last contest Crono would have beaten Pikachu. This contest, it's much murkier.


It's not a matter of strength. The fanbase heavily prefer Magus above Crono. Crono will lose a good bunch of fanbase vores to Magus, which might just be enough for Pikachu to pulk through in the daylight.

If Otacon beats Magus, it's not up for debate. Crono wins.
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#380 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:12:38 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
The fanbase heavily prefer Magus above Crono.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1752

Not sure what your definition of "heavy" is, but it probably shouldn't be that.

And Crono probably wins by more than that now.
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#381 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/13/2013 5:18:53 AM | message detail
Hell, I'd personally pick Frog to beat Magus at this point. It'd be an awesome match thematically too for the four or so voters who still remember CT exists.
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#382 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:20:22 AM | message detail
I've favored Frog to beat Magus for a while now. Probably ever since Magus lost to Sandbag, actually.
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#383 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:21:55 AM | message detail
Think it's about the same now actually. 30% is still pretty good SFF considered of course. If you don't know Chrono Trigger you're more likely to vote for Crono there since he's recognizable anyway. Now Crono will lose a bunch of those since Pikachu is there and it's a lot closer with Magus. Magus will pull Crono downbeat anMaje can make the difference.
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#384 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/13/2013 5:24:52 AM | message detail
This match is so boring compared to the one 24 hours ago
So let's talk about next match!!!
Does Dan have a shot for second place...?
#385 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/13/2013 5:26:03 AM | message detail
Frog appears early while Magus doesn't become a good character until you're nearly done with the game. I think Frog would have the edge because of the people who didn't play long enough to actually beat the game, for whatever reason
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#386 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:26:15 AM | message detail
Magus has fallen harder than Crono has since then, I think, so I'd say it's probably worse.
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#387 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:32:03 AM | message detail
Point is that Magus' remaining voters would vote for Crono under normal circumstances, but they're not gonna side with Crono when Magus is there too. Most of them that is.
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#388 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:33:22 AM | message detail
Most of them will side with Crono. It's just a matter of whether or not it's enough.
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#389 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/13/2013 5:36:01 AM | message detail
If Crono and Pikachu is close you might get a lot of people abandoning their Magus vote to help Crono. Could be one of those cases where the third SFF wheel barely gets 10%
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#390 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:36:06 AM | message detail
Nah, the Magus fans will stay with him.

Well, we'll probably not come to an agreement.
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#391 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:37:36 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
If Crono and Pikachu is close you might get a lot of people abandoning their Magus vote to help Crono. Could be one of those cases where the third SFF wheel barely gets 10%


That's what I don't think because the fanbase pikes Magus a lot more.
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#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:38:02 AM | message detail
I think you're just stuck on this assumption that CT fans love Magus the most when the evidence indicates otherwise.
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#393 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 5:38:46 AM | message detail
I mean, Crono doesn't 70/30 Magus simply based on the people who vote and don't know either character. Crono wins because the CT fanbase likes him more.
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#394 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/13/2013 5:52:56 AM | message detail
The casual fanbase perhaps. The bif CT fans all Seem to prefer Magus above Crono. I've never seen anyone state otherwise. You could say that with many series, but it's not to the same extend. It's not as Bit a difference as I Maje it sound, but enough for Pikachu to get through.
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#395 | machinegungeek | Posted 7/13/2013 6:32:01 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
This match is so boring compared to the one 24 hours ago
So let's talk about next match!!!
Does Dan have a shot for second place...?


I've actually begun to consider the possibility that he does. Only because EVO BAYBEEEE.

Who knows if that helps. No Street Fighter on today (well, I guess SFxT,lol), fwiw.
#396 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/13/2013 6:59:46 AM | message detail
Match X: (1) Sonic the Hedgehog vs. (18) Fei Fong Wong vs. (27) Dan Hibiki

Previous Contest

Sonic the Hedgehog – 2010
63.86% against Lightning
67.61% against Knuckles the Echidna
57.18% against Ganondorf
54.61% against Kirby
29.77% against Link

Fei Fong Wong – 2008
14.05% against Mario, Zelda and Knuckles the Echidna

Dan Hibiki – N/A
N/A

Analysis

After getting crushed by Link last contest Sonic is rewarded with another match against Link, but this time he will have to earn it with Vincent Valentine lurking in the shadows. For this match Sonic will finally get a chance to flex his muscles, something that he did not get the pleasure to do in 2010.

While Fei Fong Wong looked okay in his match it did include two Nintendo characters and a Sonic character so it is likely that he benefitted from LFF. Too bad he did not reach the contest until 2008 he may have had some strength when Xenogears was still a bit fresh in our minds.

I have no faith that Dan Hibiki will have any kind of strength. While it is not wise to use non-character battle polls the guy has not looked good in any poll he has been in. He could pull off the upset should Fei Fong Wong flop, but that would be more due to Fei’s weakness rather than Dan’s strength.

Breaking 60% is possible for Sonic, but I think he will just miss that mark. While it may be early to judge him for the upcoming match against Vincent at the same time you do not want to create any doubts about your ability.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Sonic the Hedgehog > Fei Fong Wong and Dan Hibiki

charmander6000’s Prediction: Sonic the Hedgehog – 58.36%, Fei Fong Wong – 25.26%, Dan Hibiki – 16.38%
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#397 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/13/2013 7:02:50 AM | message detail
Always fun to see Mega Man struggle in the UK, Jigglypuff is winning there.
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#398 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/13/2013 7:15:07 AM | message detail
Vote totals are pretty bad. Might be the worst yet.
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#399 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/13/2013 8:08:14 AM | message detail
Gamefaqs needs to integrate social media, if they want more site traffic.
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#400 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/13/2013 8:45:57 AM | message detail
These votals are sooooooo bad

RIP GameFAQs
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