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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1062
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All Hail Draven All Hail LoL ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- The Gamer In Me His dark secret is he's really Spark Brushel in disguise. If people knew, he'd be ruined. - Spiral on the black psyche locks |
lol LoL --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Draven
will have the record for biggest comeback and winning ever(and it is a
12 hour match too!)I can't wait to see the spreadsheet,in the first hour
he will have like 20% and in the last hour like 45%!That is nuts. --- GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~ |
wtf, I just woke up and checked to the updated results. Man, that's one hell of a comeback Draven pulled. --- *sigh* Lemme get my TI-83+ ...WTF!? Piece of trash!!*throws it away*~Rodri316 during his proof of why -4^2=16 All Hail BlAcK TuRtLe! |
I'm impressed. Most shocking wake up results ever. |
The trend charts are going to be hilarious. --- And then the car wash cost five dollars. |
I voted one hour into the match and was like "hole **** I screwed up badly". Then looked half an hour ago. Awesome surprise. --- *2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket *3, *6,495,240 Naruto |
Wow, what a terrible way to wake up. I think I want to go back to bed. |
Didnt Master Chief have a enormous back in 2009 maybe? --- https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BMcwhStCYAAr-mC.jpg Dallas Cowboys and Mavs |
Sheesh. I knew I picked Draven to win this match, but this is insane. He's stomping Jak despite getting blown out in the US by him. That never happens. This would have been the best match to have the old poll statistic as it would be interesting to seem just how many Chinese votes Draven picked up overnight. Losing comfortably in the US and still winning by a ton is just weird although not scummy. |
That Draven with over 40%+ My Bracket: +1 Point --- Warning, the self-destruct system has been activated, all personnel should evacuate immediately, 5 minutes to detonation. |
Like
LoL's rallying or loathe it, this is one of the all-time great
matches. This is what I missed! It's a comeback to surpass even the
legendary Sonic/Crono --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
XIII_rocks posted... Like LoL's rallying or loathe it, this is one of the all-time great matches. This is what I missed! It's a comeback to surpass even the legendary Sonic/Crono Nah. Happened too quick and it's a R1 fodder match. Actually, it's more the timing, I think. If the rally coincided so that the lead change happened near the end, maybe we could talk. All-time greats is way too high a tier for this match. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Are people really saying McShooty is not recognizable enough when he's basically the box art of the game? --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 |
XIII_rocks posted... Like LoL's rallying or loathe it, this is one of the all-time great matches. This is what I missed! It's a comeback to surpass even the legendary Sonic/Crono It's a 1-point match between 2 fodder characters and someone who will either be the second-greatest rallied character ever (still will have nothing on L-Block, even if he wins it all) or the winner of a 1 round flash in the pan fun match. Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. |
I'm not so sure Draven does as well in round 2. He has got what? 'bout 6000-8000 votes rallied? So given that he ends with around 15,000, that gives him about 7 or 8k on his own. Breaking that down, probably about 1000-2000 people are bracket voting, and most of those people won't be next round because they won't have Draven. His "unrallied" votes totals will also decrease most likely because of who he is up against, maybe by another 2000 That's a solid 3000 votes off his total, which drops him below Jak level even without taking into account the potential rallied votes that see a better character and vote for them instead. I think it's going to be a close match but I see MMX > Draven > Ryu --- Tribe Time! |
I'll say it again. If even 10% of the LoL community takes an interest you can expect LoL heroes to steamroll the competition. LoL has more players and followers than every other gaming community put together. --- ~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~ |
Man, I chose Draven>Jak>Chie precisely because I thought he was going to get rallied by the LoL userbase. Then I saw him with like 20% last night and thought it too much to come back from. And I wake up to this and am pleased. |
XIII_rocks posted... Like LoL's rallying or loathe it, this is one of the all-time great matches. This is what I missed! It's a comeback to surpass even the legendary Sonic/Crono I just think it's funny that people are all "YAY 4CHAN" for saving Tharja and then "WOW SCREW YOU LOL" a day later. You either support rallying or don't, you don't get to pick and choose depending on a bracket, you know? Not an all-timer though unless it continues. Happened too fast and while we were all asleep. --- "Ulti is the authority on birth control because his shirt has the power to impregnate any woman that looks at it for too long."-Tim |
What other matches in history has rallying had such a big effect? --- http://dl.dropbox.com/u/17214034/CoW-bakedziti.gif They are oligarchs and racists clad in the skins of dead elephants."-GRRM on Republicans |
Starcraft's run, L-Block's run, Missingno > Crono and Yoshi off the top of my head. Also, Teemo is the most popular character in LoL. The fanbase doesn't even like Draven that much. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
pezzicle posted... I'm not so sure Draven does as well in round 2. Not in the history of this contest has anyone received 1000 bracket votes. Not a f***ing chance. --- NGirl@work or on phone. |
PhoenixNine posted... I'll say it again. Hey bro, don't go around underestimating the size of LoL community, just 3% of it would be enough to steamroll the competition --- The cycle of life and death continues. We will live. And they will die. |
Okay guys, you can stop with the LoL community praising now. We get the damn point already. --- "i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745 |
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/12/2013 10:50:41 AM | #019 I just think it's funny that people are all "YAY 4CHAN" for saving Tharja and then "WOW SCREW YOU LOL" a day later. You either support rallying or don't, you don't get to pick and choose depending on a bracket, you know? there was a Tina rally before Tharja. without either rally, Tharja would have still won. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
PhoenixNine posted... I'll say it again. It doesn't work like that. LoL players aren't just drones. In fact, they're probably the most complicated gaming community ever. And most of them are or were fairly serious gamers. For example, just because of the overlap, I'd expect Cloud or Sephiroth to absolutely curbstomp an LoL character. So rallying LoL members will also be rallying people who grew up and loved Mega Man and Street Fighter. Votals will be insane, but it won't be nearly 100% of the rallied votes to Draven like this match was. And the internet is a big place and word spreads. LoL won't be able to pull in the 50,000 votes necessary to beat Link without some serious Nintendo fans getting in on the action. You can expect massive Mega Man and Street Fighter counter-rallies next match too. It won't be like this match, where there is literally no one to rally for Jak. And oh my gosh I just realized how epic it would be if someone risked the backlash and rallied Planet Gamecube (I know its not PGCN anymore, but whatever) to save Link from LoL fans. There's some massive... something hidden in that possibility. |
UltimaterializerX posted... Starcraft's run, L-Block's run, Missingno > Crono and Yoshi off the top of my head. Hey Ulti, you know when you do that thing where you talk about stuff you don't understand? You're doing it again and it's jarring so soon after you were telling us you didn't see what was wrong with Draven's picture last night. --- NGirl@work or on phone. |
A more in-depth look at Draven/Ryu/MMX... Considering Draven was getting doubled by Jak, let's assume a regular match with 30k votes will be this. Draven - 10% - 3000 Ryu - 40% - 12000 Mega Man X - 50% - 15000 That would mean Draven would need 12000 rallied votes, going from 3:15 (little after Draven started) to 5:45 (just before he took the lead) which was at his peak Draven rallied just over 3500 votes in the 2.5 hours. That's 1400 votes per hour which mean it would take him 8.5 hours to reach 12000 votes. Other things to consider. - MMX/Ryu may be closer so Draven needs less to rally - Rallying at that pace may not be sustainable - Rallied people are more likely to vote for MMX/Ryu than Jak/Chie so more is required. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 5/6 Today's Picks: Draven and Ryu |
UltimaterializerX posted... Starcraft's run, L-Block's run, Missingno > Crono and Yoshi off the top of my head. Draven has a cult following. Also, it's Draaaaaaaaaaven. --- ~Victory needs no explanation; defeat allows none.~ |
UltimaterializerX posted... Also, Teemo is the most popular character in LoL. The fanbase doesn't even like Draven that much. I don't think that's true. I've been asking around my friends who are LoLers and Draven is by far the most popular, from what they've told me. Oh, and I just realized that Touhou has a lot of seriously hardcore fans, especially in Japan. It would be very interesting to see how much any of them can be rallied, especially Cirno. |
I
think the speed helps it. It was stunning. I've never seen a character
blown away so quickly and it happening in a three-way makes it even
better. Freakin crazy. It's not a better MATCH than Sonic/Crono but it is a better comeback. The sheer force of it, an extra contender to deal with, those numbers... man. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
A Touhou rally would be hilarious. It would never, ever succeed. But it would be hilarious. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Draven...pffft,
what is this noise? I felt good about him being in last place last
night, so it's weird to feel both correct and wrong about the match.
Underestimated Jak against Chie, too...guess his no-win streak
continues. --- T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona! http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg |
From: XIII_rocks | Posted: 7/12/2013 11:02:22 AM | #031 I think the speed helps it. It was stunning. I've never seen a character blown away so quickly and it happening in a three-way makes it even better. Freakin crazy. the 3-way makes it less impacful. it would have been a much bigger comeback 1v1, and it still would have succeeded. --- http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif |
I'm addicted to league and this match has only served to further intensify my hate for Draven. Goodbye leaderboards, it was nice knowing you |
OH MY GOD --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
xp1337 posted... A Touhou rally would be hilarious. It would never, ever succeed. But it would be hilarious. You don't think there are enough Touhou fans to rally Reimu past Barret and Layton? If it were a night match and Japan would actually be awake for all of it I'd give here a real chance. |
From the previous topic: jacko_vdz posted... Hey Luster how many votes do you project this to finish up at, it should be 36k+ right? That's pretty good for a night match these days! This match is going to break 39000 votes for sure. In Rivalry Rumble, the highest vote total in a night match was 34363 votes. charmander6000 posted... I've calculated over 6000 rallied votes and considering the vote totals and that they have let up winning next round is quite possible, assuming another rally. Only thing that can stop them is if the rallied voters vote MMX/Ryu which is more likely to happen than with Jak/Chie. 6000 votes is very impressive, but it still doesn't compare to the 12000 vote rally in last year's controversial poll about the ME3 ending. Here were the poll updates for the ME3 ending poll: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdEM5MUk3eF8zTG5Ob1BUalNoLW5tRFE The cells that are highlighted in light blue clearly show the obvious rallying in that poll. I also wrote my own analysis on that poll. 12000 rallied votes in a non-contest poll is ridiculous - there's probably just 2 contest matches with more than 12000 rallied votes (L-Block's semifinal and final match in 2007). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
nintendogirl2 posted... pezzicle posted...I'm not so sure Draven does as well in round 2. really? say 2/3rds vote, thats about 10k then 1/3 of those people had draven, 3000 and a 1/3 of those people braket vote its not that hard to believe --- Tribe Time! |
TheOneAboveAll posted... xp1337 posted...A Touhou rally would be hilarious. It would never, ever succeed. But it would be hilarious. No, I don't. I doubt Reimu could be rallied past Chie if you put her in this match in place of Draven. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
There was nothing wrong with that picture and it looked far better than the crap that's up right now. --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :( |
Luster,
you don't think Crono/Missingno had more than 12,000 rallies votes? On
both sides? I'm sure it did. I don't have the numbers in front of me but
didn't it beat the average votes for a day match by like 20,000? |
MarioSuperstar posted... Okay guys, you can stop with the LoL community praising now. We get the damn point already. I don't think anyone is actually praising that community. Anyone doing so has never, ever played a MOBA. Worst genre in gaming by a mile. --- •.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.• "Oh that the world were more like Ulti." -MWC |
Layton yes. Barret no. --- The King Wang. Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert. |
Kinglicious posted... Layton yes. Yeah, basically that. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Ummm... I think I just woke up? But looking at the results, surely I'm still dreaming? |
TheOneAboveAll posted... Luster, you don't think Crono/Missingno had more than 12,000 rallies votes? On both sides? I'm sure it did. I don't have the numbers in front of me but didn't it beat the average votes for a day match by like 20,000? Crono/Missingno may have been the only day match to break 90000 votes, but you also have Snake/Sephiroth that got almost 87000 votes. Both matches were very hyped up before they started. No way that Crono/Missingno had more than 6000 rallied votes at the most. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
6000
votes is very impressive, but it still doesn't compare to the 12000
vote rally in last year's controversial poll about the ME3 ending. Here
were the poll updates for the ME3 ending poll: That was back then, by the end of this match it'll probably be around 9000 and that's with little incentive to continue rallying. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 5/6 Today's Picks: Draven and Ryu |
I
gotta say, I'm rooting for Draven next round. If he wins, his match
against Link might be the most anticipated match of all-time. --- POKEFEAR |
First match of the contest where all 3 characters break 10,000 votes. --- Points: 6/6 Today's Picks: Draven & Ryu (SF) ===DChemist=== |
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