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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1061
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Lopen posted... So I hate to be "that guy" (actually I don't-- I'm usually that guy) but anyone think that Draven might be being stuffed under the cover of the rally right now? The updates feel a little consistent for legit rally numbers to me. Like in the past rallies were more spiky in terms of vote intake. Draven's variance has been pretty minimal from update to update for the last half an hour or so. Who cares? It is hilarious either way. Imagine: Allen is forced to make a topic about Draven/Chie/Jak. --- Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone. |
Yeah
it's actually difficult for me to believe that this is a legitimate
rally. It's too consistent, and it's happening at 3-5 AM. This many
people aren't up at this time. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Swarles_Barkley posted...
Lets make Draven the new Magus! Our only hope... --- Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me |
Oh I don't care I'm just bringing it forth as a discussion point. My horse was Chie so I don't really care at this point! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... So I hate to be "that guy" (actually I don't-- I'm usually that guy) but anyone think that Draven might be being stuffed under the cover of the rally right now? The updates feel a little consistent for legit rally numbers to me. Like in the past rallies were more spiky in terms of vote intake. Draven's variance has been pretty minimal from update to update for the last half an hour or so. Hmm. It's possible, but LoL has one of the biggest fanbases in the world, plus it's on the front page of the LoL subreddit (which has over 8,000 active users) so it doesn't seem too odd to me. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
I told myself I wasn't going to fear a potential LoL rally -- even with its massive fanbase. Well, right now I'm ****ing terrified. --- Life isn't fair, it's just fairer than death, that's all |
Lopen posted... So I hate to be "that guy" (actually I don't-- I'm usually that guy) but anyone think that Draven might be being stuffed under the cover of the rally right now? The updates feel a little consistent for legit rally numbers to me. Like in the past rallies were more spiky in terms of vote intake. Draven's variance has been pretty minimal from update to update for the last half an hour or so. I have a feeling that has to do more with this actually being a "mild" LoL rally, as scary as that sounds. I don't think this is the full force of that community, which is why it isn't spiking much. |
KamikazePotato posted... Yeah it's actually difficult for me to believe that this is a legitimate rally. It's too consistent, and it's happening at 3-5 AM. This many people aren't up at this time. http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/ It's been at over 8,000 for at least an hour. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
KamikazePotato posted... Yeah it's actually difficult for me to believe that this is a legitimate rally. It's too consistent, and it's happening at 3-5 AM. This many people aren't up at this time. There is 8,000 one the subreddit. 42,000 on Twitch.... That's where the rally's are coming from. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
yeah, just go to the LoL subreddit right now to see if you guys aren't convinced --- http://kambyero.com |
That's
not how rallies work. It being 'mild' doesn't change Draven getting
exactly 160 votes every update. Rallies are almost impossible to be that
consistent. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
KamikazePotato posted... Yeah it's actually difficult for me to believe that this is a legitimate rally. It's too consistent, and it's happening at 3-5 AM. This many people aren't up at this time. There are 14,000 people on one LoL stream at the moment. There are 8 more with over 1000 people in them. --- NGirl@work or on phone. |
izNotPerfect posted... Hmm. It's possible, but LoL has one of the biggest fanbases in the world, plus it's on the front page of the LoL subreddit (which has over 8,000 active users) so it doesn't seem too odd to me. 8000 users there right now; it's got over 300,000 subscribed users and I'd estimate over 80,000 active users, many of whom will see the post before the contest ends. --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
nintendogirl2 posted... KamikazePotato posted...Yeah it's actually difficult for me to believe that this is a legitimate rally. It's too consistent, and it's happening at 3-5 AM. This many people aren't up at this time. And you just made me realize that Chaox is streaming and I wasn't watching it. --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
KamikazePotato posted... That's not how rallies work. It being 'mild' doesn't change Draven getting exactly 160 votes every update. Rallies are almost impossible to be that consistent. If you're hoping for votes to get dropped or ignored, don't hold your breath. |
Lopen posted... So I hate to be "that guy" (actually I don't-- I'm usually that guy) but anyone think that Draven might be being stuffed under the cover of the rally right now? The updates feel a little consistent for legit rally numbers to me. Like in the past rallies were more spiky in terms of vote intake. Draven's variance has been pretty minimal from update to update for the last half an hour or so. I trust that Allen will correct things if this is the case. In terms of volume, the LoL fanbase is certainly large enough to make this kind of impact, if in fact enough of them are motivated by the rally. Either way, I'm just glad this one is turning out to be an interesting match (even through it threatens my bracket). --- http://i490.photobucket.com/albums/rr263/crypto_magnum/Polycosm_sig.jpg |
I don't see how Draven won't pass Jak at this point. He's cutting the lead by 100 each update. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
I'm
saying like, how rallies work is... a group of people see a message to
go vote something, then all the people who are looking at the area have
seen it. They can't exactly do it again every time you bump. Like, the twitch stream has 14000 viewers but okay someone posts the message and like, all your 14000 viewers could have seen it at that moment, in theory. You should get a huge influx of votes at that point and then diminishing returns each time you repost because you lost a lot of potential interested parties each time you repost. Same is true with a forum. Basically for this behavior as it is to make sense you'd need the 14000 users to have a constantly cycling group of people who are paying attention to the stream. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Achromatic posted... Lopen posted...So I hate to be "that guy" (actually I don't-- I'm usually that guy) but anyone think that Draven might be being stuffed under the cover of the rally right now? The updates feel a little consistent for legit rally numbers to me. Like in the past rallies were more spiky in terms of vote intake. Draven's variance has been pretty minimal from update to update for the last half an hour or so. I care massively, to be honest. A rally is legit, stuffing means Jak should win. --- The Constitution defines treason as giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Mr. Snowden is being called a traitor. Does that mean the American public is the enemy? |
I
think some are seriously underestimating the extent to which the
ralliers are just going to vote for whatever League character they're
pointed at. That's how these things work. And if that's true, Ryu and X's strengths don't even really matter. They're stronger than Jak and Chie here, so they crunch unrallied Draven more, true. But votals in unrallied matches tend not to dramatically increase as the competition gets better. All the ralliers have to additionally do win that one compared to this one is: 1. Make up for the votes unrallied Draven loses from getting crunched harder. 2. Make up for the slightly higher votals due to stronger competition. They're going to overkill this one so I don't see either as being much of a problem. Three-way format makes this way too easy for them, too. It's joke votes in fourways all over again. Wouldn't be surprised if Ryu and X are about as far apart as Chie and Jak, either. And if they beat Ryu and X, while Link is next and is going to be tough, they're going to have a full 24 hours to do this against him instead of only 12. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
lol,
a LoL character beating Link would make this the worst contest ever.
Should Draven win today, he'll pick up more steam and momentum. |
Lopen posted... Basically for this behavior as it is to make sense you'd need the 14000 users to have a constantly cycling group of people who are paying attention to the stream. Reddit. --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
Even
though Draven has made some serious percentage gains in the US, Jak is
still at 41.60% in the US. I guess that percentage will go way down
when the morning vote kicks in, assuming the rally is still going on. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
err guys... if he beats Chie and Jak, he's beaten... Chie and Jak. Draven is going nowhere even if he wins this match. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Reddit
is a forum it follows the same rules more or less. Just replace
"stream viewers" with "people actively browsing the forum" --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
You
guys posting large numbers of streams and reddit doesn't really mean
much. I'm pretty sure those numbers can be inflated by leaving the link
open on your tab, very few people there are going to bother coming here.
It's late and not many people care about the GameFAQs character battles
anymore. Additionally, Chie and Jak aren't going up in votes at all. Generally when characters are rallied, some people decide to vote for the other characters because they prefer them. That isn't happening here, and the LoL fanbase is not going to be that unified under Draven. I mean, maybe this is all legitimate, but even if Bacon gives it the a-okay I kind of doubt it at this point. It doesn't look like one in the slightest. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
AxemRedRanger posted... While you're right, I do think you're overestimating Draven's strength, and I say this as a huge fan of the game. He won't get past Ryu/X. Teemo, on the other hand... --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
Denzokuken posted... err guys... if he beats Chie and Jak, he's beaten... Chie and Jak. Draven is going nowhere even if he wins this match. This It's hilarious how some of you are already getting hyped over Draven-Ryu-X. Draven will be lucky to break 30% honestly. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
Also
other thing of note is that Jak is still decisively winning the US
right now. I'd think if Draven was getting rallied that he'd be making
up a ton of percentage in the US too. I mean, yes it's late at night
but reddit and twitch are still primarily American sites, so you'd think
the majority of the rallied votes would come from there, not random
places in Europe --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Lopen posted... Also other thing of note is that Jak is still decisively winning the US right now. I'd think if Draven was getting rallied that he'd be making up a ton of percentage in the US too. I mean, yes it's late at night but reddit and twitch are still primarily American sites, so you'd think the majority of the rallied votes would come from there, not random places in Europe Reddit is very popular in both Europe and Australia, though. --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
AxemRedRanger posted... I think some are seriously underestimating the extent to which the ralliers are just going to vote for whatever League character they're pointed at. That's how these things work. Link has no one holding him down though. Naturally, he would get about, say, 65-70%? in a Draven-Aerith/Shepard threesome. That's more than Draven's managing here. That means Draven loses that match, even if the fact that rallied voters will be voting against Link instead of against these 2 douchecakes doesn't hurt the force of the rally. That last part, especially, is incredibly unlikely. Remember Kerrigan's "rally" which ended up working in Vincent's favour probably, vote-lead wise. --- The Constitution defines treason as giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Mr. Snowden is being called a traitor. Does that mean the American public is the enemy? |
I
think most of the rallied votes are coming from Mainland Europe and
Oceania. You can see all of the European countries that have switched
over to Draven, but places like Iceland, Ireland, and the UK are still
favoring Jak. Especially in the UK where Jak still has over 44% there. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Sure
but realize Jak is still winning with 41% in the US. Like, I'm pretty
sure that means very little of Draven's extra votes have come from the
US. Like, minuscule amounts. Jak had about 45% in the US when this
started I'm pretty sure. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Yeah
the more I look at it the less legit this seems. Those trends are
absurdly consistent for something like rallying, Jak/Chie aren't going
up in votes at all Assuming this is legit basically means assuming that a fanbase is a hivemind, which has never proven to be the case (where Link isn't concerned) --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. |
Lopen posted... I'm saying like, how rallies work is... a group of people see a message to go vote something, then all the people who are looking at the area have seen it. They can't exactly do it again every time you bump. And you're right here -- the effect of the rally should follow a normal distribution: getting more successful as the word spreads, and then dying down since there are only so many people. But more and more people are waking up here, so I think that might create a compensating effect. This could be a legit rally, I do think. --- The Constitution defines treason as giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Mr. Snowden is being called a traitor. Does that mean the American public is the enemy? |
Lopen posted... Sure but realize Jak is still winning with 41% in the US. Like, I'm pretty sure that means very little of Draven's extra votes have come from the US. Like, minuscule amounts. Jak had about 45% in the US when this started I'm pretty sure. Exactly. I think the vast majority of his votes are coming from Europe. --- Q. If your canoe is in a tree with its headlights on, how many pancakes does it take to get to the moon? A. None. Snakes don't have armpits. |
League is incredibly popular all around the world so I'm not sure why Europe's prime voting time getting Draven votes is weird --- http://img.imgcake.com/KommunistKoala/koalajpgehsa.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/KKpngat.png |
Lopen posted... Sure but realize Jak is still winning with 41% in the US. Like, I'm pretty sure that means very little of Draven's extra votes have come from the US. Like, minuscule amounts. Jak had about 45% in the US when this started I'm pretty sure. Cali has been steadily rising in favor of Draven. --- http://i.imgur.com/32RNLnc.gif |
If you guys are so concerned about vote stuffing, send Bacon a message or something. --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
Am I the only one who can't see the graph updates on creativename's site? --- The Gamer In Me "Ike and Ash & Co. saw a Yoshi and didn't catch it." - Mer telling us his dream. |
paulg235 posted... Am I the only one who can't see the graph updates on creativename's site? Nope --- The Constitution defines treason as giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Mr. Snowden is being called a traitor. Does that mean the American public is the enemy? |
I
just woke up. Is someone saying Link is under threat because Draven is
catching up to Jak (and still losing the US heavily)?. Huh. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
You
are not the only person who can't see the graphs on creativename's
site. The graphs are broken right now. I reported the problem to him
already, but he has not gotten around to fixing the graphs yet. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I can't see them either. --- Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner! Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over.... |
Kotetsu534 posted... I just woke up. Is someone saying Link is under threat because Draven is catching up to Jak (and still losing the US heavily)?. Huh. Yup. Someone is indeed saying that. Sakurai: (laughs) --- If you believe in Jesus Christ and are 100% proud, put this in your sig. Steam ID: hookd_on_foniks | I play lots of TF2 when I have nothing to do... |
The majority of the votes coming from Europe on its own would be only kinda weird. I'm pretty sure it's like 85% of the votes coming from there, though. Like if Draven was getting even a modest slice of the pie from the US Jak's percentage would've tanked a lot more I think. To put it in perspective Chie is still beating Draven in the US. Like, really. Anyway, if this is stuffing it's not very subtle and I give even the inept Bacon credit enough to spot it out. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
If
Draven rallies don't drop off after he takes the lead you'll see them
start to draw American hits when it stops being 2/5 in the morning TBQH. --- NGirl@work or on phone. |
Lopen posted... The majority of the votes coming from Europe on its own would be only kinda weird. I don't see the problem with this. GameFAQs is maybe 15% European voters? League of Legends, on the other hand, is probably 35% or so European players (wild guess admittedly, but I'm sure it's more European than GameFAQs). Additionally, it's a decent hour in Europe right now, everyone that doesn't work is awake and ready to vote. You would expect that many rallied votes to be coming from Europe right now. --- The Constitution defines treason as giving aid and comfort to the enemy. Mr. Snowden is being called a traitor. Does that mean the American public is the enemy? |
so
not to disrupt this riveting rallying discussion, but i'm thinking
about the next match -- namely whether i should put 'face mcshooty' over
yuri l. in light of tina's performance. i don't think so, but who
knows, man. --- I keep coming back here where everything... slipped Ahhahhahaa |
OlDirtyNumbers posted... so not to disrupt this riveting rallying discussion, but i'm thinking about the next match -- namely whether i should put 'face mcshooty' over yuri l. in light of tina's performance. i don't think so, but who knows, man. This is what I was debating earlier. I have no idea. On one hand, literally Face McShooty. On the other...Tales --- http://img.imgcake.com/KommunistKoala/koalajpgehsa.jpg http://img.imgcake.com/KKpngat.png |
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