Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1061

#451 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/12/2013 5:25:00 AM | message detail
So let's see. As of the 8:04 update 8 hours in (Probably shouldn't use any results later than this since Draven has long since taken the lead.):
Assuming Draven would be doubled by Jak without the rally (he was actually doing worse than that for a bit!):
Jak has 9291 votes so Draven would be around 4645 votes.
Draven currently has 10,764 votes.
That means Draven's gotten, like, 6119 net votes for him within 8 hours because of the rally. More Draven votes than that total thanks to whatever number of people voted Jak and cancelled out additional Draven votes.
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#452 | vcharon | Posted 7/12/2013 5:33:12 AM | message detail
Not to sound as dire as the other guy, but this does make the contest feel like Gamespot's. I preferred this just having 4chan tbh. Their influence was at least only minor.
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#453 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/12/2013 5:39:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
I don't mind the rallying although I did have to do a double-take when I checked this morning. It's what makes the contest interesting.

It sucks Oracle wise though. Knowing you called the correct winner and put in a good prediction in a highly debatable match, only to have it completely reversed because of a huge rally. That's a bitter pill to swallow!

But contest wise it's for the best probably.
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#454 | vcharon | Posted 7/12/2013 5:41:32 AM | message detail
I don't really find it interesting that a guy who would get doubled by Jak and lose to a Persona character needed a big rally that accounts for more that half his votes. It only becomes interesting if you have a Starcraft like situation.
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#455 | abdou | Posted 7/12/2013 5:43:19 AM | message detail
anyone else tired of fodder characters? honestly I wish this was a normal 128 characters battle without the likes of draven Tharja and god knows who else made it

this is boring
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#456 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/12/2013 5:45:09 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
anyone else tired of fodder characters? honestly I wish this was a normal 128 characters battle without the likes of draven Tharja and god knows who else made it

this is boring


Draven is a 3 seed and Tharja is a 5. They both make it even in a 64-entrant contest.
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#457 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/12/2013 5:46:07 AM | message detail
I find it much easier to care about fodder games than fodder characters. I'd be legit interested to see what would happen in a Fire Emblem: Awakening/Borderlands 2 match, or a League/Persona 4 match. But Tharja and Draven are doing nothing for me.
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#458 | SubDeity | Posted 7/12/2013 5:46:50 AM | message detail
Sad this killed my perfect bracket, but rallies are still hilarious.

LoL is seriously an awful game, though. MOBA's are the worst genre ever.
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#459 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/12/2013 5:47:03 AM | message detail
*Just woke up*
Well...I guess LoL fans do care about Draven on some level >.>
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#460 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/12/2013 5:48:06 AM | message detail | (edited)
vcharon posted...
I don't really find it interesting that a guy who would get doubled by Jak and lose to a Persona character needed a big rally that accounts for more that half his votes. It only becomes interesting if you have a Starcraft like situation.


Not interesting for you personally but must be for a lot of people. If it wasn't there wouldn't have been so much discussion about a match that looked all but done within the first 30 or so minutes.
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#461 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/12/2013 5:48:43 AM | message detail
So awful. My Expert Challenge entry is breaking even on this one with Draven > Chie > Jak--my initial instinct--but the board convinced me to switch to Jak > Draven > Chie at one point and that's where it was when the brackets locked.
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#462 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/12/2013 5:50:09 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
anyone else tired of fodder characters? honestly I wish this was a normal 128 characters battle without the likes of draven Tharja and god knows who else made it

this is boring


Only on a small level. The Tharja match was awesome in that it's rare these days to have a match where we have 0 data for any of the entries. Felt like an old-school 02-03 match.
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Now Awaiting:
Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls
#463 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/12/2013 5:50:55 AM | message detail
78 consecutive percentage increases till he paused at 39.44% for 5 minutes.

You had a good run Draven.
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#464 | Baseman (Moderator) | Posted 7/12/2013 5:51:31 AM | message detail
This is an excellent change of events from last night.
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#465 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:06:16 AM | message detail
Half expected Draven to be leading when I woke up, still quite amazing.

I've calculated over 6000 rallied votes and considering the vote totals and that they have let up winning next round is quite possible, assuming another rally. Only thing that can stop them is if the rallied voters vote MMX/Ryu which is more likely to happen than with Jak/Chie.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 5/6 Today's Picks: Draven and Ryu
#466 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 7/12/2013 6:18:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
I anticipated vote rallying, just didn't expect LoL players actually like Draven enough to rally for him like this.

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#467 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/12/2013 6:21:11 AM | message detail
Teemo/L-Block will certainly be interesting. Will 4chan try to counter-rally L-Block for 2007 nostalgia? Because L-Block's going to need nostalgia joke votes to even have a chance to stand against Teemo.
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#468 | pyresword | Posted 7/12/2013 6:23:50 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Teemo/L-Block will certainly be interesting. Will 4chan try to counter-rally L-Block for 2007 nostalgia? Because L-Block's going to need nostalgia joke votes to even have a chance to stand against Teemo.


This isn't exactly true. For various reasons Teemo is hated by a noticeable chunk of the League of Legends community, which isn't the case for Draven who is generally liked. So, any Teemo rally should result in a non-negligible amount of of anti-Teemo votes from the League community itself, even if they don't like either of the other two competitors.
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#469 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:27:22 AM | message detail
uh, WOW, when I went to bed Draven was trailing and everyone was saying, "well that's it it's all over nothing to see here". Now I have to go back through this topic just to see what everyone was saying.
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#470 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:27:36 AM | message detail
Draven would have been able to come back from a 5k+ deficit here.
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POKEFEAR
#471 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 7/12/2013 6:41:30 AM | message detail
pyresword posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
Teemo/L-Block will certainly be interesting. Will 4chan try to counter-rally L-Block for 2007 nostalgia? Because L-Block's going to need nostalgia joke votes to even have a chance to stand against Teemo.


This isn't exactly true. For various reasons Teemo is hated by a noticeable chunk of the League of Legends community, which isn't the case for Draven who is generally liked. So, any Teemo rally should result in a non-negligible amount of of anti-Teemo votes from the League community itself, even if they don't like either of the other two competitors.


Teemo is more notorious than hated. Everyone actually loves Teemo.
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#472 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/12/2013 6:45:51 AM | message detail
Oh goody, we have another Gamespot contest on our hands.
#473 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/12/2013 6:46:05 AM | message detail
This result actually worries me. Not because I have anything against rallying, but because I will feel a bit cheated out of the contest if Draven picks up steam and wins it all. I honestly think that if he can get through the next round that not even Link can stop him. Guys on the board who don't want Draven running away with this really should rally hard for MMX next round.
#474 | voltch | Posted 7/12/2013 6:49:23 AM | message detail
Eh, wasn't Albion the guy who tried rallying for WoW characters or something and he's complaining about rallying?
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#475 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/12/2013 6:50:51 AM | message detail
#476 | voltch | Posted 7/12/2013 6:51:14 AM | message detail
CrushDavis is Albion.
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#477 | swordz9 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:51:31 AM | message detail
Man Draven was in last place by a lot when I went to sleep at 2am EST. Now he's obliterating everybody easily. This might be exciting if it was a character or anything I gave a damn about, but gross.
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#478 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:52:36 AM | message detail | (edited)
Most interesting thing about this match to me is that Jak is going to take the US by over 10% of the vote and still get crushed, since the heavy rallying was so focused on mainland Europe. We've had matches where characters have narrowly held the US or North America and lost by 1-2%, but nothing on this scale.
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#479 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/12/2013 6:52:55 AM | message detail
Albion's responsible for what may be my favorite stats topic post ever. Albion, remember when you were rallying for Hogger and went to make a sandwich? Post literally had me laughing till it hurt.
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#480 | voltch | Posted 7/12/2013 6:54:33 AM | message detail
But tbh I'd kinda like it if there was a huge rally from one company for one character and then another company started a counter rally for their guy.
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#481 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/12/2013 6:56:20 AM | message detail
Match VIII: (4) Yuri Lowell vs. (15) Ryu vs. (24) Face McShooty

Previous Contest

Yuri Lowell – 2010
21.30% against Tifa Lockhart

Ryu – 2010
68.97% against Balthier Bunansa
50.35% against Dante
56.88% against Leon Kennedy
34.02% against Cloud Strife

Face McShooty – N/A
N/A

Analysis

The guru pick makes his appearance, sadly he was one of the weakest characters in the 2010 contest and as good of a seed we could give him it was always likely that he would be facing a stronger opponent. Ryu has a long history of decent performances and should have no problem crushing his opponents.

The battle for second place has the potential to be interesting. With the performance of Tiny Tina a few matches ago there is now some mild hype for Face McShooty to take second. However, I feel that match highlighted the weakness of the group as none of those three characters were expected to have much strength and the match did not encourage me to think otherwise.

On the other side Yuri Lowell also showed that he does not have much strength. His performance against Tifa made him one of the weakest characters in 2010, but even then I would not be surprised if he easily won the Tharja/Tina/Juliet group.

I may be underestimating Borderlands 2 again, but I do not think Face has the strength to defeat Yuri. Unlike Tina he is not the most recognizable character with Ryu being in the poll. Speaking of Ryu he could threaten to break 60% in this match which would make him look good for his match against Mega Man X next round.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Ryu > Yuri Lowell and Face McShooty

charmander6000’s Prediction: Ryu – 60.37%, Yuri Lowell – 20.73%, Face McShooty – 18.90%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 5/6 Today's Picks: Draven and Ryu
#482 | Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 7/12/2013 7:00:44 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Most interesting thing about this match to me is that Jak is going to take the US by over 10% of the vote and still get crushed, since the heavy rallying was so focused on mainland Europe. We've had matches where characters have narrowly held the US or North America and lost by 1-2%, but nothing on this scale.


This definitely seems weird to me. If I recall correctly, Jak has actually been extending his percentage lead in the US for a while now. I seem to remember him being up 8% early this morning.
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#483 | KingBartz | Posted 7/12/2013 7:03:33 AM | message detail
Had Yuri over Face but I just changed to Face over Yuri. Really hope I don't regret that.
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#484 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/12/2013 7:03:58 AM | message detail
Tbh "shoot me in the face" was the funniest moment in Borderlands 2
I know im going to vote for him
#485 | voltch | Posted 7/12/2013 7:06:28 AM | message detail
Borderlands 2 seems very different from Borderlands 1
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#486 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/12/2013 7:07:43 AM | message detail
Looks like I missed some hardcore rallying. Oh well, looks I'm still perfect!
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#487 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:08:50 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

That's freaking hilarious, especially when looking at the map.
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#488 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:12:11 AM | message detail
Wow, Draven's going to win by like 2500 when he was down by 1400. That's a hilarious rally. Good show, Europe.

He *could* win his next match with this much steam, too, since Ryu and MMX could steal votes from each other.
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#489 | Dark Silvergun | Posted 7/12/2013 7:13:05 AM | message detail
Draven at 40%+
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#490 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/12/2013 7:13:56 AM | message detail
Oh, wow, that was some crazy rallying huh? Seeing this topic blow up about it after the fact is crazy.
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#491 | swordz9 | Posted 7/12/2013 7:17:48 AM | message detail
It's funny how Draven's real strength is basically complete joke tier. He just happens to be super rally-able which might make him look really great depending how far it gets him.
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#492 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 7/12/2013 7:19:04 AM | message detail
It's not like we haven't seen that before swordz
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#493 | xp1337 | Posted 7/12/2013 7:19:56 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
It's funny how Draven's real strength is basically complete joke tier. He just happens to be super rally-able which might make him look really great depending how far it gets him.

Personally, I think that's what will cost him in the end. Imagine what Draven would get naturally in a match with MMX/Ryu or Link. The difference has to be made up for with rallying and it's such a hole to start from.
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#494 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/12/2013 7:21:51 AM | message detail
The first post of this topic looks pretty silly now.
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#495 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/12/2013 7:23:47 AM | message detail
It's not been a good contest for calling things early.
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#496 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:24:40 AM | message detail
Hey this match was completely over without rallying, and Draven looked like absolute s*** for 3 hours. I don't think there's ever been a percentage comeback this large and this fast.

I ain't even mad, stuff like this makes contests waaaaaaay more fun.
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#497 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/12/2013 7:26:58 AM | message detail
voltch posted...
Eh, wasn't Albion the guy who tried rallying for WoW characters or something and he's complaining about rallying?


Eh, maybe its hypocritical but I think rallying is fine if its a close match and the fanbase brings the character it likes to a win like with Hogger. But when a character is getting doubled and then just erases that lead in no time, it becomes a bit silly. Its tough to take the Gamespot contest seriously since all it comes down to is who wants to rally more and I want the Gamefaqs contest to be more than that.
#498 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:27:45 AM | message detail
Shut up, Albiom.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#499 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/12/2013 7:28:00 AM | message detail
(feels good man, haven't gotten to bust that fad out in ages)
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#500 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/12/2013 7:28:04 AM | message detail