Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1061

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2013 9:27:21 PM | message detail
LOL Draven

LOL LoL



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 7/11/2013 9:28:01 PM | message detail
#3 | CasanovaZelos | Posted 7/11/2013 9:29:18 PM | message detail
He didn't get a 5 seed, he got a 3 seed, who are obviously all chosen to drop brackets that rely on higher seeds to determine predictions.
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#4 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/11/2013 9:29:31 PM | message detail
Why did I let you guys talk me into taking Draven. I know Jak sucks but I figured he could scrape by just on name recognition alone

and I was LAUGHED at.
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 5/6 pts | Expert Challenge: 14/36
NP: Draven > Jak > Chie Satonaka
#5 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 7/11/2013 9:30:15 PM | message detail
CasanovaZelos posted...
He didn't get a 5 seed, he got a 3 seed, who are obviously all chosen to drop brackets that rely on higher seeds to determine predictions.


I thought the seedings are based on number of nominations received for the character.
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#6 | LOLContests | Posted 7/11/2013 9:31:47 PM | message detail
Agh, this is like Ocelot/Pac-Man all over again. I have faith that the upset can happen, and even predict a really close match in the Oracle, but ultimately don't pull the trigger myself. I thought Draven/Jak (and Pac-Man/Ocelot) would be 50/50 and while part of me wanted to go for the upset, part of me didn't want to just pick an upset for the sake of having an upset.
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#7 | 11117Elements | Posted 7/11/2013 9:33:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Rule 1: Only trust the board for matches you really have no clue about
EX: I had no clue about the Tharja match, so I went with Tharja

I know Jak, Figured draven is a 50/50 league rally joke pic, and have no clue who this other girl is. Persona? Huh... Noone i know plays Persona
Jak is the safe pick
#8 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/11/2013 9:33:56 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Why did I let you guys talk me into taking Draven. I know Jak sucks but I figured he could scrape by just on name recognition alone

and I was LAUGHED at.


That's why when you decide to fill out your bracket, when you finish it, you don't touch it at all anymore. I've been burned too many times in the past by late switches because some breakdowns sounded so convincing and I didn't trust my original instinct.
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#9 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/11/2013 9:41:37 PM | message detail
Holy crap. Draven really is the new Kerrigan, isn't he?
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#10 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/11/2013 9:44:00 PM | message detail
He definitely fills in that one square on the bingo board KP made!
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#11 | The Real Truth | Posted 7/11/2013 9:48:04 PM | message detail
I'm blown away by how bad Draven is. Me picking Juliet to win in my main bracket was something I fixed by picking Tharja with my expert bracket.

But Draven.
I took Draven in my expert bracket expecting the awfulness of the other 2 characters and the low vote totals to be enough for Draven to win.
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#12 | SubDeity | Posted 7/11/2013 9:48:38 PM | message detail
I'm the opposite of other people...I had Draven until a really convincing breakdown (KP's, I think) made me switch!
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#13 | WhiteLens | Posted 7/11/2013 9:48:52 PM | message detail
For once I'm glad I picked Shadow.

If recognition is enough for Jak, then he should have no problems beating Narukami.

Now I'm unsure on Clementine, but at least The Walking Dead has the advantage of being multi-plat instead of PC-only.
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#14 | The Real Truth | Posted 7/11/2013 9:49:16 PM | message detail
I should have trusted my own judgement after watching that awful Draven intro video on Youtube.
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Tornadoman78:
tornadoman and tornadogirl like to kick box each other in my tornaolayzers and she dosent even mind getting hit
#15 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/11/2013 9:49:18 PM | message detail
KP convinced me to take Jak too. What a hero.
#16 | Nintendoboy375 | Posted 7/11/2013 10:11:56 PM | message detail
I used KP's analysis as a starting point for my picks, but made changes for ones that I didn't agree with. Aerith > Shepard, Red > Cecil, and Sonic > Vincent were some of my deviations.
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#17 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/11/2013 10:13:24 PM | message detail
Glad to see some people followed the one good upset pick I did so far!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#18 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/11/2013 10:24:14 PM | message detail
#19 | superange128 | Posted 7/11/2013 10:26:01 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
http://i52.photobucket.com/albums/g3/CzarMagus/contestbingo_zpsbf7e4829.png


It would be great if Jill lost by 27 votes to Red Bird
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#20 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 7/11/2013 10:26:13 PM | message detail
I meant to pick Jak but I was too late!

Now I know Teemo isn't breaking 10%
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#21 | SebVettel | Posted 7/11/2013 10:31:58 PM | message detail | (edited)
I just gome home and checked my bracket, I was all "WHY DID YOU PICK JAK YOU IMBECILE".

Then I looked at the results, heh :3
#22 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/11/2013 10:36:04 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
For once I'm glad I picked Shadow.

If recognition is enough for Jak, then he should have no problems beating Narukami.

Now I'm unsure on Clementine, but at least The Walking Dead has the advantage of being multi-plat instead of PC-only.


I didn't know that Shadow was even a debatable match. He's no Sonic or Knuckles, but I never once thought that the lead from Persona 4 would shut him down. Especially using his cannon name.

I'm also expecting Spyro to pull away with mascot power.

Wish i could say the same about the Lee match. Game & Watch has me massively worried.
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#23 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/11/2013 10:38:19 PM | message detail
So, what do you guys think of Phoenix v. Marth? My bracket has Phoenix, but the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking I should have taken Marth to win that match.

They're really close to each other on the 2010 x-stats, and Phoenix has hype surrounding his upcoming new title, but I can't help but feel like Marth's strength keeps getting stuck behind JRPG SFF. And Phoenix has never been exceptionally consistent.
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#24 | LinkLegend27 | Posted 7/11/2013 10:42:16 PM | message detail
Wait, Draven was the favorite in the Guru contest? I thought Jak was an easy pick. Then again, I went for the Tiny Tina upset.

also WHY AM I NOT ON THE GURU SITE
#25 | Sorozone | Posted 7/11/2013 10:44:46 PM | message detail
WhiteLens posted...
For once I'm glad I picked Shadow.

If recognition is enough for Jak, then he should have no problems beating Narukami.

Now I'm unsure on Clementine, but at least The Walking Dead has the advantage of being multi-plat instead of PC-only.


For me on that match it entirely depends on how Dunban performs in his match. If he gives a good showing, I'm tempted to put Clem last.
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#26 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/12/2013 12:34:37 AM | message detail
#27 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:35:08 AM | message detail
Draven has cut 250 votes in 30 minutes.

Not bad.
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#28 | WellThoughtName | Posted 7/12/2013 12:37:46 AM | message detail
#29 | Lopen | Posted 7/12/2013 12:37:55 AM | message detail
It's funny that the rally theories are actually panning out but Draven is such ass it's probably not going to matter.
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#30 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:38:10 AM | message detail
Why would 4chan rally Draven
I think they are more into Jak if anything
#31 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:45:37 AM | message detail
Chie's lead over Draven was 1458 after 2:59 update. It has dropped 448 to 1010 after the 3:44 update.

That is to say, Draven has erased almost a third of Chie's lead in 45 minutes.
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#32 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:45:45 AM | message detail
First lead cut
lol doesn't matter
#33 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/12/2013 12:47:59 AM | message detail
Looks like he still has a shot at 2nd if he can keep it up.

Jak is out of reach though
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#34 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:48:19 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
Chie's lead over Draven was 1458 after 2:59 update. It has dropped 448 to 1010 after the 3:44 update.

That is to say, Draven has erased almost a third of Chie's lead in 45 minutes.

omgomgom

Maybe Draven can still make the battle for 2nd interesting, but 4chan might come in and bail Chie out.
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#35 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:50:51 AM | message detail
I've got a feeling that rallies are gonna make Chie and Draven fight for 1st place actually. Jak seems to have come to a halt.
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#36 | Leebo86 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:51:31 AM | message detail
f*** these s***** votals
#37 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/12/2013 12:52:01 AM | message detail
Actually this is getting ridiculous. He's routinely doubling the other 2.

...He might make first
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#38 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:52:29 AM | message detail
Under 1000.

Then00bAvenger posted...
Actually this is getting ridiculous. He's routinely doubling the other 2.

...He might make first


This is getting scary/hilarious.
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#39 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/12/2013 12:52:51 AM | message detail
I don't think Jak's stall is that bad, but yeah, Jak is stalling and Draven is demolishing Chie's lead.
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#40 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/12/2013 12:55:07 AM | message detail
Damn hell

Draven is going on a rampage.
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#41 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/12/2013 12:56:15 AM | message detail
Well he'd have to keep it up for another 3-4 hours or more to have a shot at Jak but I don't know. Could happen
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#42 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:56:40 AM | message detail
881. Draven's cutting over 50 votes an update. Can he keep up the momentum?!
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#43 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/12/2013 12:56:45 AM | message detail
Hmmm at this rate, Draven has the lead (the first place lead) in like four hours or less.
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#44 | xp1337 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:57:01 AM | message detail
Augh... I had made peace with my -4, but if Draven can actually do this...

Actually, if he can really do this he better go all the way and beat Jak because then I'll improve to -2! But I feel like it won't happen that way.
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#45 | Lopen | Posted 7/12/2013 12:57:07 AM | message detail
I doubt Draven has the stamina to even overtake Chie but this is pretty funny to watch
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#46 | Leebo86 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:57:19 AM | message detail
Well, we know for sure no one's going to bother rallying for Jak.

I just hope they can't maintain this pace.
#47 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:57:48 AM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Looks like he still has a shot at 2nd if he can keep it up.

Jak is out of reach though


Jak's lead over Draven peaked at 2582.

At 3:14 it was 2554. As of 3:54 it is 2140. That is a 414 vote cut from Jak's lead over Draven in the last 40 minutes.
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#48 | izNotPerfect | Posted 7/12/2013 1:00:22 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#49 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/12/2013 12:58:59 AM | message detail
We need a "first place lead over third place" column in the match updater for this poll.
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#50 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 7/12/2013 12:59:37 AM | message detail
80 cut off Jak's lead. Damn

This could happen faster than I thought
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