Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1059

#351 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 7:39:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
GotY polls mean jack when it comes to playrate. Remember that MGS4 got almost 48% of the vote against Brawl in a GotY poll, during a time when PS3 ownership was less than 25%.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#352 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 7:39:48 AM | message detail
Yeah I guess Borderlands was getting tons of franchise votes in that GotY poll huh.
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#353 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:39:48 AM | message detail
Can someone explained to me what happened?A character was winning by about 430 votes.Then the other character managed to gain so many votes that ended up winning by 30 votes.Then the first character wins again and seems she will finish with over 250 votes?Why?
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#354 | Swarles_Barkley | Posted 7/11/2013 7:40:36 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Guys, seriously. A few hours ago everyone was all "Tharja's got this". What happened? Things change, don't call matches prematurely. Now if Tina builds a 100 vote lead, that's a lock. Until then, let's not make hasty calls.


Smart man.
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#355 | Sorozone | Posted 7/11/2013 7:40:49 AM | message detail
Yeah, this is looking like a done deal now.
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#356 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/11/2013 7:41:34 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Can someone explained to me what happened?A character was winning by about 430 votes.Then the other character managed to gain so many votes that ended up winning by 30 votes.Then the first character wins again and seems she will finish with over 250 votes?Why?


Justice.
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#357 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/11/2013 7:42:37 AM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
I think this might actually hint at Tharja and Juliet being even weaker than we initially speculated. Tiny Tina is DLC-exclusive, a fact I didn't even realize when predicting my bracket or my Oracle percentage. That's a pretty big damn deal, as DLC adoption is traditionally pretty low (who knows if even half or a third of the Borderlands 2 players have her DLC).


She is a NPC on Borderlands 2 plot. She just happen to get a DLC recently that added more missions related to her.
#358 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:43:05 AM | message detail
Tina needs 12.31 votes per update to win. Expecting to call it in 10 minutes.
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#359 | VauntX | Posted 7/11/2013 7:45:55 AM | message detail
This is why the Character Contests are all so much fun. It's always impossible to predict what is going to happen.
#360 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 7:45:57 AM | message detail
200 vote barrier activated!

I'm calling this match over. Even if the rally dies down, there just isn't enough time for Tiny Tina to come back.
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#361 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2013 7:46:13 AM | message detail
Looks like I slept through an awesome morning!
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#362 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:47:37 AM | message detail
Tina needs 14.46 votes per update to win. (Next update)
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#363 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:49:02 AM | message detail
I just don't understand the trends here,that is all.Ah well I am sure the crew will enlighten me in their topic.
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#364 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:52:18 AM | message detail | (edited)
Safer_777 posted...
I just don't understand the trends here,that is all.Ah well I am sure the crew will enlighten me in their topic.


Trends were simple, but apparently this is the result of multiple 4chan rallies, the evidence being that Tharja started racing after she went behind and jumped an extra 30-40 votes per update since then.

Tina needs 16.08 votes per update to win and since that's more than the level she was cutting at before the rallies this is over. Tharja wins.
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#365 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:52:14 AM | message detail
Hasn't 4chan has like unlimited users?You would think they would do better than that.
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#366 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/11/2013 7:52:52 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I just don't understand the trends here,that is all.Ah well I am sure the crew will enlighten me in their topic.


At first, Tharja was winning thanks to Asia+Europe and being a night match

After that, Tina got a rally on reddit that put her on the lead
Once Tina got the upperhand, 4chan rallied for Tharja

The fact that there are "Rally" skills on Fire Emblem: Awakening makes this funny. Looks like somebody just used Rally: All. But the chainsaw girl was out of range for the skill to make effect on her
#367 | pyresword | Posted 7/11/2013 7:57:36 AM | message detail | (edited)
Wait what, Tharja brought this back? Haven't checked this since like 9 eastern time but it looked like Tina had it for sure

Edit: Ok, 4chan rallies again, makes sense
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#368 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 7:57:20 AM | message detail
Match VI: (8) Hero vs. (11) Rinoa Heartilly vs. (20) Aerith Gainsborough

Previous Contest

Hero – N/A
N/A

Rinoa Heartilly – N/A
N/A

Aerith Gainsborough – 2010
42.36% against Auron

Analysis

It is always interesting that despite having decent strength Final Fantasy VII characters often struggle to get enough nominations to reach the contest, I guess that is what happens when the game has so many characters with decent strength. Overall Aerith should have no problem winning this match and could potentially benefit from some SFF.

It has taken nine character battles, but we finally have our second Final Fantasy VIII character, Rivalry Rumble not included. There is probably a reason why it took so long for us to see one, either they are weak or like Final Fantasy VII nominations are split between many characters. I would predict it is the later, but at the same time I do not expect them to be world crushers like the Final Fantasy VII cast. Either way the point is moot as Aerith is in perfect position to SFF Rinoa.

Hero is one of those characters that would benefit if the polls ever decide to include what game he is from. Dragon Quest in general is not popular on GameFAQs despite this site loving RPGs, but Hero is just too generic of a name. The character has been a fan favourite to a few users on the board, but now that he has made the bracket all I can think of is how badly he will be crushed.

SFF matches are always hard to predict as Rinoa can either get crushed or hold it off and look respectable. I am going with that she gets crushed because Final Fantasy VII crushes VIII. Also while Dragon Quest was not made by Square I predict that he might also get SFF, kind of like how Nintendo can SFF Mega Man and Sonic.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Aerith > Rinoa and Hero

charmander6000’s Prediction: Aerith – 59.74%, Rinoa – 28.11%, Hero – 12.15%
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Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#369 | abdou | Posted 7/11/2013 8:00:34 AM | message detail
still getting 0 pts in expert thanks to Juliet but at least my bracket stays perfect. For once I am happy with 4chan
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#370 | pyresword | Posted 7/11/2013 8:03:24 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
still getting 0 pts in expert thanks to Juliet but at least my bracket stays perfect. For once I am happy with 4chan


Exactly this
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#371 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2013 8:05:34 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
still getting 0 pts in expert thanks to Juliet but at least my bracket stays perfect. For once I am happy with 4chan


This
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#372 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:07:27 AM | message detail
Yeah, got Tharja > Juliet > Tina and feeling like I made out like a bandit.
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#373 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/11/2013 8:08:28 AM | message detail
Will you still be happy with 4chan when they rally Magikarp over Mega Man?
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#374 | xp1337 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:08:31 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
Yeah, got Tharja > Juliet > Tina and feeling like I made out like a bandit.

Pretty much this. I'll take this result any day.
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#375 | __Smurf__ | Posted 7/11/2013 8:08:37 AM | message detail
This was a really good match, both in challenge predicting it and how it played out.
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#376 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 8:10:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Eh I think Tharja would've won all rallies aside. Can't really call foul on 4chan here because reddit started it first.

I'm tempted to say Tharja would've won even without the 4chan rally and keeping the reddit rally. I think California bailed her out here ultimately. I know 4chan is certainly capable of more than 300 votes but I'm skeptical they cared enough to give that this time.
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#377 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/11/2013 8:10:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, it was. It's cool how Tina would have won without 4chan, and Board 8 actually liking 4chan's rallying.
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#378 | WhiteLens | Posted 7/11/2013 8:12:21 AM | message detail
Best part about this is that Tharja will be only Awakening character to advance!
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#379 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 8:13:34 AM | message detail
She deserves it. Lucina zzz and Chrom isn't much better.
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#380 | Eddv | Posted 7/11/2013 8:15:51 AM | message detail
Eh. Awakening kinda sucks really but Tharja was a highlight among the poor level and game design. Still I thought Tina would take this
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#381 | Eddv | Posted 7/11/2013 8:15:52 AM | message detail
Eh. Awakening kinda sucks really but Tharja was a highlight among the poor level and game design. Still I thought Tina would take this
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#382 | spooky96 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:17:11 AM | message detail | (edited)
Tina attempting a comeback?

Idk, it feels she's a little too late.
#383 | swordz9 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:18:02 AM | message detail
It would be pretty hilarious if Dracula was a complete flop and Lucina won. It would also probably wreck a lot of brackets.
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#384 | vcharon | Posted 7/11/2013 8:18:55 AM | message detail
Pretty much 0% chance of that.
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#385 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/11/2013 8:19:43 AM | message detail
I think most people took Dracula thinking "yeah well, he's named Dracula". If people don't recognize Lucina, that's probably good enough for him to beat her.
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#386 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/11/2013 8:21:26 AM | message detail
Good fight Tina. Good fight.
#387 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 8:22:03 AM | message detail
Honestly I could see Dracula being stronger than Alucard. It's freaking Dracula for crissakes. Lucina doesn't have a chance there. Chrom's got a better chance of winning his match
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#388 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:22:48 AM | message detail
Really, there are people whining on the FE:A board that Tharja is gonna win. Thank God none of them came here.
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#389 | vcharon | Posted 7/11/2013 8:23:06 AM | message detail
Alucard/Dracula looked fine in Rivalry Rumble. There's no reason to think Dracula is not at least somewhere near Alucard in terms of strength. He's the villain in most Castlevania games plus he has the recognizable outside of gaming factor. The strength of the duo seemed around the usual strength Alucard has in these, if not better, so unless you think Lucina can beat Alucard it shouldn't be very interesting.
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#390 | pjbasis | Posted 7/11/2013 8:23:09 AM | message detail
Bah, would have been more fun to see Fire Emblem lose and all guru brackets be wrong.
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#391 | vcharon | Posted 7/11/2013 8:24:54 AM | message detail
I picked Chrom in my bracket at the last moment, but this match gives me little hope. During the first hour I was feeling very good though... but now, not so much. I'm hoping Chrom gets a brawl announcement very soon or he's toast.
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#392 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:26:54 AM | message detail
Chrom would need a Brawl announcement to win IMO.
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Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#393 | Zabie_W | Posted 7/11/2013 8:27:07 AM | message detail
I guess I'll be the odd one, but I think that Lucina could win her match with relative ease.

Chrom on the other hand is doomed...nintenDOOOOMED
#394 | Xuxon | Posted 7/11/2013 8:28:43 AM | message detail | (edited)
From: vcharon | Posted: 7/11/2013 11:24:54 AM | #391
I picked Chrom in my bracket at the last moment, but this match gives me little hope. During the first hour I was feeling very good though... but now, not so much. I'm hoping Chrom gets a brawl announcement very soon or he's toast.

i picked him assuming he'd be in the next Smash (why did you write brawl? and why did i repeat it haha), but i didn't think much about the timing of the announcement. obviously it won't mean much if it comes after the match <_<

starting to think he'll get last, actually.
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#395 | pjbasis | Posted 7/11/2013 8:28:23 AM | message detail
Dracula is a lock bro
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#396 | Lopen | Posted 7/11/2013 8:30:01 AM | message detail
Ehhh, I don't think The Boss does much better than Tharja in this match to be honest. Chrom still has a good chance to win just because his trio is weak.
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#397 | GANON1025 | Posted 7/11/2013 8:30:46 AM | message detail
http://en.seoi.net/yurai/?n=Tharja
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#398 | pyresword | Posted 7/11/2013 8:31:16 AM | message detail
Pretty sure The Boss would have gotten over 50% in this poll no matter which of the three she replaced.
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#399 | Model_Robot | Posted 7/11/2013 8:31:43 AM | message detail
Really gonna be disappointed if Tina doesn't lose out. Borderlands has got to have some of the blandest characters in video games.
#400 | vcharon | Posted 7/11/2013 8:33:10 AM | message detail
I guess "Brawl" is so much of a habit for me. >_>
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