Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1059

#201 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/11/2013 5:07:02 AM | message detail
And Tina took those four back. 137 vote lead again.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
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#202 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/11/2013 5:09:09 AM | message detail
Hopefully Tharja can put this little girl away asap. God this match.
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#203 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:11:08 AM | message detail
So what did you expected before this match started?I had Juliet>Tharja>Tina myself.
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#204 | Sorozone | Posted 7/11/2013 5:12:40 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So what did you expected before this match started?I had Juliet>Tharja>Tina myself.


Tharja > Juliet > Tina

Tina scared me for a long time, but I didn't have the balls to make a change.

Ah well, what happens happens.
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#205 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/11/2013 5:13:06 AM | message detail
9 vote gain in Tinas favor. 128 vote difference.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#206 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 5:17:25 AM | message detail
Juliet has started collapsing out of nowhere, losing 0.15% in the last 2 updates. During that same time, Tharja gained 0.01% while Tiny Tina still managed to cut 26 votes off the lead.
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#207 | armitage999 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:18:28 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So what did you expected before this match started?I had Juliet>Tharja>Tina myself.


Same. Wasn't that impressed with Tharja in FE:A and had a feeling it might bust come contest time. Lollipop Chainsae's a fun time waster and Tiba didn't stand out to me in the admittedly brief time I played BL2. I did not think Tina would have been this popular to be honest.
#208 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/11/2013 5:18:30 AM | message detail
Same, I've Juliet > Tharja > Tina

In retrospect, had i gone with Tharja > Juliet > Tina, i would lose the match and get -6. Believing in Juliet saved me a little.
#209 | GaryOak151 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:21:00 AM | message detail
Under 100.

****

Tharja is one of my favorite characters and I have her in my bracket. Pull through!
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#210 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/11/2013 5:25:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Same, I've Juliet > Tharja > Tina

In retrospect, had i gone with Tharja > Juliet > Tina, i would lose the match and get -6. Believing in Juliet saved me a little.


Yeah it seems kinda wrong that getting 1st and 2nd the wrong way around punishes you more than getting 1st and 3rd the wrong way around.
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#211 | GaryOak151 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:26:36 AM | message detail
Tharja stalling? Hope so.
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#212 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:27:43 AM | message detail
GaryOak151 posted...
Tharja stalling? Hope so.


Tina needs 2.23 votes per update to win.

This is over, give it up.
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#213 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/11/2013 5:27:49 AM | message detail
GaryOak151 posted...
Tharja stalling? Hope so.


If Tina manages to cut 3 votes an update like that 'stall', she still wins.
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#214 | Sorozone | Posted 7/11/2013 5:27:59 AM | message detail
Doubt it. It's been small cuts, followed by big cuts, followed by small to moderate gains the back to small cuts, followed by big cuts.

Tharja really needs to bump that trend big time to stand any chance.
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#215 | pyresword | Posted 7/11/2013 5:28:07 AM | message detail
Well that was just a smaller cut from Tina, it wasn't like Tharja won an update.

...But it's ok! Tharja is winning in California still, which means as soon as they wake up in an hour or 2 we are good to go. Right? Right?
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#216 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/11/2013 5:34:20 AM | message detail
Tina slowing down.

Yeah, Tharja still needs to recover, but the morning vote is ending soon, so if Tharja can go back to what she was doing two hours ago, she wins.

Too close to call right now.
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#217 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 5:38:01 AM | message detail
At 6:00 AM EST, this match was about 600 votes behind the Link match. Now we're only about 400 votes behind the Link match, so I think vote totals have picked up a little bit because this is a close match.
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#218 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:38:23 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Tina slowing down.

Yeah, Tharja still needs to recover, but the morning vote is ending soon, so if Tharja can go back to what she was doing two hours ago, she wins.

Too close to call right now.


Nah, just look at the Link match - after the morning vote kicks in around 7.00ish it was nonstop rise from then until the end of the poll. Tina should act the same way.
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#219 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/11/2013 5:41:16 AM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Same, I've Juliet > Tharja > Tina

In retrospect, had i gone with Tharja > Juliet > Tina, i would lose the match and get -6. Believing in Juliet saved me a little.


Yeah it seems kinda wrong that getting 1st and 2nd the wrong way around punishes you more than getting 1st and 3rd the wrong way around.


Oh, come to think of it, yeah you are right.

Also, enjoying this match right now. Go Tina.
#220 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:42:35 AM | message detail
Looks like Tina made this into a match. Seems to be stalling now, Nintendo morning vote?
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Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#221 | whatisurnameplz | Posted 7/11/2013 5:44:13 AM | message detail
#222 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/11/2013 5:44:52 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
Tina slowing down.

Yeah, Tharja still needs to recover, but the morning vote is ending soon, so if Tharja can go back to what she was doing two hours ago, she wins.

Too close to call right now.


Nah, just look at the Link match - after the morning vote kicks in around 7.00ish it was nonstop rise from then until the end of the poll. Tina should act the same way.


That's Link. It was also atypical patterning.

Besides, Tina's trends have already changed. She gained only 8 votes in the last 20 minutes.
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#223 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 5:46:16 AM | message detail
Tiny Tina has gained about 0.70% in the US over the past 1 1/2 hours or so. Which is the big reason for the current comeback right now.
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#224 | DpObliVion | Posted 7/11/2013 5:46:48 AM | message detail
Tina's got this.
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#225 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/11/2013 5:51:10 AM | message detail
Down to 65.

I can't wait to see how many Expert brackets burst into flames.
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#226 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:53:01 AM | message detail
Someone said that Guru's support for Tina was 2.5%.That is extremely low.So I guess that most of experts are toast.But the ones that got it right are awesome.
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#227 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/11/2013 5:53:48 AM | message detail
Guys, seriously. A few hours ago everyone was all "Tharja's got this". What happened? Things change, don't call matches prematurely. Now if Tina builds a 100 vote lead, that's a lock. Until then, let's not make hasty calls.
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#228 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/11/2013 5:55:37 AM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Same, I've Juliet > Tharja > Tina

In retrospect, had i gone with Tharja > Juliet > Tina, i would lose the match and get -6. Believing in Juliet saved me a little.


Yeah it seems kinda wrong that getting 1st and 2nd the wrong way around punishes you more than getting 1st and 3rd the wrong way around.


When you have the option to bank your picks, I don't really agree. Yeah, people who picked Juliet>Tharja probably made the worst pick (match ain't completely over though), but they still had 2nd place correct and they're worse off than those who just banked.

If I were to change anything about the Expert system, I'd probably give/subtract equal points for picking 1st/2nd/3rd. In so many matches there is a clear winner, and I think an equal reward should be given for picking 2nd/3rd place.
#229 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 5:55:55 AM | message detail
Not much longer now.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#230 | abdou | Posted 7/11/2013 5:59:49 AM | message detail
Tiny Tina one of the worst characters ever to win a match. this is terrible.
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#231 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 6:01:41 AM | message detail
Tiny Tina probably takes the lead at 9:10 AM.
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#232 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/11/2013 6:03:09 AM | message detail
Aren't you optimistic.

I'd guess 9:20, though I'm being conservative here. I think Tharja will have one more push before Tina takes over.
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#233 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/11/2013 6:04:55 AM | message detail
In the last hour, Tina has cut 110 votes. At this rate Tina will win by 299 votes, taking the lead at 9.20
In the last half hour, Tina has cut 56 votes. At this rate Tina will win by 305 votes, taking the lead at 9.20.
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#234 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/11/2013 6:05:56 AM | message detail
Welp. That's what I get for going against Luster.
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#235 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 7/11/2013 6:06:38 AM | message detail
Welp indeed.
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#236 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/11/2013 6:06:49 AM | message detail
jacko_vdz posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Same, I've Juliet > Tharja > Tina

In retrospect, had i gone with Tharja > Juliet > Tina, i would lose the match and get -6. Believing in Juliet saved me a little.


Yeah it seems kinda wrong that getting 1st and 2nd the wrong way around punishes you more than getting 1st and 3rd the wrong way around.


When you have the option to bank your picks, I don't really agree. Yeah, people who picked Juliet>Tharja probably made the worst pick (match ain't completely over though), but they still had 2nd place correct and they're worse off than those who just banked.

If I were to change anything about the Expert system, I'd probably give/subtract equal points for picking 1st/2nd/3rd. In so many matches there is a clear winner, and I think an equal reward should be given for picking 2nd/3rd place.


Don't get me wrong, I had Juliet > Tharja > Tina so I'm 'benefitting' from it.

I just think it's silly because Juliet > Tharja > Tina scores better than Tharja > Tina > Juliet.
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#237 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/11/2013 6:09:53 AM | message detail
Save us California.
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#238 | GaryOak151 | Posted 7/11/2013 6:10:39 AM | message detail
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND
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#239 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/11/2013 6:10:48 AM | message detail
Oh! I might be right after all!
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#240 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 6:10:52 AM | message detail
lead denied
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Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#241 | spooky96 | Posted 7/11/2013 6:11:05 AM | message detail
Oh crap Tina fell from 09 to 08.

CRAP CRAP OH GOD
#242 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 6:11:06 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Save us California.


I imagine California will start trending towards Tiny Tina when their morning vote gets under way.
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#243 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/11/2013 6:11:24 AM | message detail
THARJA WILL NOT GO DOWN SO EASILY
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#244 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 7/11/2013 6:12:38 AM | message detail
"You're already dead."
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#245 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/11/2013 6:13:05 AM | message detail
This has been a pretty great match! Maximum lead of 425 is cool.
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#246 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/11/2013 6:13:45 AM | message detail
The max lead was actually 437.
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#247 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 7/11/2013 6:14:14 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
This has been a pretty great match! Maximum lead of 425 is cool.


If Juliet had just been a bit stronger to make all 3 be in contention at the end then it would have been an awesome match.
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#248 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/11/2013 6:15:41 AM | message detail
If Juliet had just been a bit stronger to make all 3 be in contention at the end then it would have been an awesome match.

Still a good match.


Damn look at that lead change
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Points: 4/4 Today's Picks: Juliet and Aerith
#249 | XIII_rocks | Posted 7/11/2013 6:16:35 AM | message detail
Holy crap! Enormous Tina update
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#250 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/11/2013 6:16:51 AM | message detail
And thats that
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