Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1058

#101 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/9/2013 9:07:22 PM | message detail
13 people fell off the Top 49 this time. -carrots-, -Unowninator-, 0060000, 007WerePig, 00mudkip, 01slayer, 072396, 0pt1muzPr1m3, 101sora101, 123awesomedude, 13051408, 13karp and 1943fighter did not have Raiden winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#102 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:09:17 PM | message detail
Yoshi's doing great here. Solaire and Demi-Fiend should be > Isaac and Tingle.

SFF should spell Yoshi's end even if he does do as well as Link would here, unfortunately.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#103 | Nintendoboy375 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:10:07 PM | message detail
13 less brackets.
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http://i.imgur.com/6OHUIst.jpg
#104 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:11:00 PM | message detail
Nothing too surprising there and great for my Oracle.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 2/2 Today's Picks: Yoshi and Shepard
#105 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:12:16 PM | message detail
TRE: what happen to the stats on the leaderboard.... (number of user with the point and percentile stuff) that was a pretty cool feature... any idea if the will be add soon?
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#106 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 9:15:45 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Votals are good tonight, by the way. This should be beating Link at the freeze by a good margin, and that freeze had 6 minutes instead of 5.


This freeze happened around 4 1/2 minutes, so we probably would have had somewhere around 970 votes if the freeze happened after 5 minutes instead of 4 1/2 minutes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#107 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/9/2013 9:16:11 PM | message detail
Whosever 2pac_Alypse_Now on the Leaderboard...

best name in the history of ever
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 1/1 points
NP: Raiden > Waluigi > Alan Wake |
#108 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/9/2013 9:17:22 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Whosever 2pac_Alypse_Now on the Leaderboard...

best name in the history of ever


We are going to be seeing many interesting usernames on the Leaderboard, I think.
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In Oz; cruel is the usual punishment.
#109 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:19:08 PM | message detail
well, at least until Tharja/Juliet/Tina

that will wipe out a good amount of brackets regardless of the result
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Character Battle IX: 2/2 points, Today: Yoshi, Shepard
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#110 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/9/2013 9:19:45 PM | message detail
Are there any prediction percentage stats anywhere?
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#111 | Kibago | Posted 7/9/2013 9:20:22 PM | message detail
Yoshi's nosedive is kind of sad to watch, even though my Oracle demands some more falling. i wish he'd bleed % a little slower!
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Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
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#112 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/9/2013 9:20:23 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
TRE: what happen to the stats on the leaderboard.... (number of user with the point and percentile stuff) that was a pretty cool feature... any idea if the will be add soon?


No idea.
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Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
#113 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:21:12 PM | message detail
Yoshi with a sub-60% update.
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Abound with so much information
#114 | 11117Elements | Posted 7/9/2013 9:21:15 PM | message detail
Movin on up!

Finally a good excuse for so many 1's
#115 | Articuno2001 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:21:40 PM | message detail
From: Kibago | #111
Yoshi's nosedive is kind of sad to watch, even though my Oracle demands some more falling. i wish he'd bleed % a little slower!


I need him around 60%. fall faster

Anyway, good for my UNDER 65% spread bet.
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Character Battle IX: 2/2 points, Today: Yoshi, Shepard
http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#116 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/9/2013 9:24:15 PM | message detail
Aw sweet, Leaderboard is alphabetical instead of based on bracket submission. I might end up on the expert leaderboard after today!
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#117 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:36:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
No it sucks. I refused to make a last minute change because I wanted to be on the leaderboard.

I even created a speed bracket.... all for nothing (I probably would have not made it, but still)
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#118 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 9:30:39 PM | message detail
This match is currently outdoing the Link match in votals so far. We're about 300 votes ahead of the Link match at this point in time.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#119 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:31:58 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Whosever 2pac_Alypse_Now on the Leaderboard...

best name in the history of ever


You made me laugh out loud, and I am in a room full of sleeping people. -_-
#120 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/9/2013 10:00:00 PM | message detail
Sooooo I missed the news of FFVII on Steam.

Oops.
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"Taken 2 would probably be good because it's Taken 2 and Liam Neeson doesn't know who you are but he will find you and get you laid." -Silvercross
#121 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/9/2013 10:08:38 PM | message detail
VINCENT > SONIC CONFIRMED
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The Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest - 2/2 points
NP: Yoshi > Solaire of Astora > Demi-Fiend
#122 | Blairville | Posted 7/9/2013 10:09:43 PM | message detail
Solaire is rising in % yesssss

This may be bad for my oracle but yesssssss
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Haman Korn! You're the source of all kernels in this world! Your time has come! -Cornille
You've made a poor choice for your final popping place! -Haman Korn
#123 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 10:27:58 PM | message detail
Another 6 points toward my Expert Challenge picks.

Perfect contest so far.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5vsjNPEzTFfxNmO426ofUiDZYFTl1zjtMn
#124 | scaryice | Posted 7/9/2013 10:58:26 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Are there any prediction percentage stats anywhere?


14886/15254 = 97.59% for Link
#125 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/9/2013 11:04:35 PM | message detail
My prediction on order of strength in this third of a division:

1) Link
2) Yoshi
3) Raiden
4) Waluigi
5) Solaire of Astora
6) Isaac (The Binding of Isaac)
7) Tingle
8) Demi-Fiend
9) Alan Wake

I like how between the bottom two, one appears on his game's cover art while the other is his game's titular protagonist. Lol.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#126 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/9/2013 11:06:34 PM | message detail
some of demi-fiend's strength literally comes from this:

http://i.imgur.com/Xovt6SA.png

people bought the game because Dante was heavily advertised to be in it

I wonder if dante would SFF him in a match
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~Zen
#127 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/9/2013 11:11:19 PM | message detail
He probably would.

And I bet pretty much every DMC fan would have liked to see Atlus attempt a reboot of the series to follow up Nocturne, at least instead of DmC.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#128 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/10/2013 12:06:37 AM | message detail
scaryice posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Are there any prediction percentage stats anywhere?


14886/15254 = 97.59% for Link


You won't be able to calculate it like this for other matches though, this only works for the first match.
#129 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/10/2013 1:35:55 AM | message detail
Already under 60%. Yeah, thus far Nintendo has looked average, not good or bad, just average.
#130 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/10/2013 1:42:11 AM | message detail
Looks like Tingle 2013 is the least-voted entrant in contest history.

I really hope this lasts.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#131 | TheWhiteVoid | Posted 7/10/2013 1:43:36 AM | message detail
How could you not vote for demi-fiend? He's more badass than yoshi anyways. >_<
#132 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/10/2013 1:46:39 AM | message detail
AlecTrevelyan006 posted...
Sooooo I missed the news of FFVII on Steam.

Oops.


The one year I don't take Cloud. UGH
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#133 | ginkoblinko | Posted 7/10/2013 1:49:40 AM | message detail
Demi-Fiend has 14% while Yoshi has 60% s the undeniable evidence that this contest is not a character battle, rather a "i know who that is, so they get my vote"

Which makes the thing seem so pointless as the winner usually ends up being some ultra famous Nintendo mascot or cloud bloody strife! Pointless, but still a gamefaq tradition i suppose. Ok, rant over, sorry!
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I gave in to Pier pressure and became a Lighthouse.
#134 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/10/2013 1:55:06 AM | message detail
Yoshi was having a few poor updates, getting as low as 47% about 25 minutes ago, but then he just went and took 65%. I was going to say he might end up as low as 55%, but he might pick it up soon
#135 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/10/2013 2:02:04 AM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Looks like Tingle 2013 is the least-voted entrant in contest history.

I really hope this lasts.


You have to keep in mind that was a 12-hour match. Tingle probably would have gotten around 6000 votes in a full 24-hour match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#136 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/10/2013 2:06:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yoshi has 70.63% on Solaire and 79.74% on Demi-Fiend. Solaire has 62.07% on Demi-Fiend.

It seems that Solaire's percentage on Demi-Fiend is pretty much stuck while Yoshi is dropping like crazy. Makes sense since this is a night match.

So much for Tingle > Demi-Fiend. Actually, come to think of it, Tingle will is still probably the weakest character in this ninepack.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#137 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 7/10/2013 2:04:16 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Looks like Tingle 2013 is the least-voted entrant in contest history.

I really hope this lasts.


You have to keep in mind that was a 12-hour match. Tingle probably would have gotten around 6000 votes in a full 24-hour match.


That, and he probably does better in literally any other match on the bracket.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#138 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/10/2013 2:17:21 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Looks like Tingle 2013 is the least-voted entrant in contest history.

I really hope this lasts.


You have to keep in mind that was a 12-hour match. Tingle probably would have gotten around 6000 votes in a full 24-hour match.

It's obvious he's nowhere near the weakest character, I'm just happy that he holds the record for now.

Some turbo-fodder will surely come around and take the record before the round is up regardless.
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#139 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 2:43:55 AM | message detail | (edited)
Trend charts for yesterday's matches:

Time | Link | Isaac | Tingle | Votes
0:05 | 68.50% | 17.68% | 13.82% | 984
1:00 | 71.08% | 15.13% | 13.80% | 5871
2:00 | 70.07% | 15.01% | 14.92% | 3531
3:00 | 69.69% | 15.95% | 14.36% | 2590
4:00 | 71.95% | 16.41% | 11.64% | 1993
5:00 | 71.54% | 16.98% | 11.49% | 1567
6:00 | 72.15% | 17.17% | 10.68% | 1404
7:00 | 70.57% | 18.00% | 11.43% | 1522
8:00 | 72.66% | 15.59% | 11.76% | 1931
9:00 | 75.46% | 15.03% | 9.51% | 2082
10:00 | 76.51% | 14.09% | 9.39% | 2129
11:00 | 76.82% | 13.62% | 9.56% | 2144
12:00 | 77.56% | 13.76% | 8.68% | 2166

To no one's surprise, Link does his best work after the sun comes up. In a full 24 hour match, he probably could've pushed for 75%. Isaac was strongest at night and surprisingly during the board vote. Tingle was probably getting some joke support early on, which is why his strongest hours were near the beginning.

First match X-Stats:

Link – 50.00%
Isaac BOI – 17.45%
Tingle – 14.14%
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#140 | hellfire104 | Posted 7/10/2013 2:48:39 AM | message detail
Leon is that stats website working again? The one that had the update stats? I'd love to follow it again.
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Point Total: 0/0. Guru Status: Alive
My Bracket Says: Night: Link Day: Raiden
#141 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 2:50:19 AM | message detail
Poll updates can be found here:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/64
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#142 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 2:58:33 AM | message detail
Time | Raiden | Waluigi | Alan | Votes
0:05 | 53.51% | 35.23% | 11.26% | 826
1:00 | 47.40% | 42.15% | 10.45% | 5857
2:00 | 46.44% | 43.15% | 10.41% | 4709
3:00 | 48.72% | 40.56% | 10.72% | 3826
4:00 | 49.50% | 39.84% | 10.66% | 3434
5:00 | 49.41% | 39.26% | 11.33% | 3311
6:00 | 51.83% | 37.63% | 10.53% | 3000
7:00 | 54.24% | 33.90% | 11.86% | 2463
8:00 | 53.08% | 35.51% | 11.40% | 2464
9:00 | 47.79% | 40.25% | 11.96% | 2517
10:00 | 49.10% | 40.14% | 10.77% | 2322
11:00 | 51.76% | 36.03% | 12.21% | 2015
12:00 | 56.96% | 31.23% | 11.81% | 1803

Like Link, Raiden does his best work toward the end of the match and finishes with a bang, posting his best single hour in the final hour. A potential 4chan rally means Waluigi's best work was near the beginning. Alan was just consistently bad, but at least he avoided the indignity of a sub-10% hour.

X-Stats:

Raiden – 50.00%
Waluigi – 44.07%
Alan Wake – 18.11%
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#143 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/10/2013 2:59:42 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Time | Raiden | Waluigi | Alan | Votes
0:05 | 53.51% | 35.23% | 11.26% | 826


You used the wrong update for the board vote. The freeze happened at 12:03 PM and you used the 12:08 PM update for the board vote in that trend chart.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#144 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/10/2013 3:01:14 AM | message detail
I did that on purpose.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#145 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/10/2013 3:05:41 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Time | Raiden | Waluigi | Alan | Votes
9:00 | 47.79% | 40.25% | 11.96% | 2517
10:00 | 49.10% | 40.14% | 10.77% | 2322


Waluigi had another 4chan rally during those 2 hours, so that explains why did so well during those 2 hours. But I can confirm there was definitely a 4chan rally for Waluigi at the beginning of the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#146 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/10/2013 3:45:04 AM | message detail
We should really ask Allen about the stuff missing on the leaderboard. Most surprising results will be no more otherwise.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#147 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/10/2013 4:26:41 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
We should really ask Allen about the stuff missing on the leaderboard. Most surprising results will be no more otherwise.


Agree, it was one of the most useful feature (for me at least). That and the percentile stuff (it was nice to know where you stand compare to other)
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#148 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/10/2013 4:32:13 AM | message detail
Yeah, made you feel awesome when you predicted stuff like Paper Mario over World of Warcraft even though it was obvious.

I think I'm in the small bunch of people that believe Kain will beat Olimar for second place.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#149 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/10/2013 4:39:13 AM | message detail
How can 13 people not have Raiden winning?
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#150 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/10/2013 6:41:22 AM | message detail
Match IV: (2) Commander Shepard vs. (17) Captain Olimar vs. (26) Kain

Previous Contest

Commander Shepard – 2010
75.79% against Ellis
38.99% against Pikachu

Captain Olimar – 2008
11.50% against Mega Man, Nero and Banjo

Kain – 2004
35.35% against Kirby

Analysis

First match where we have data on all three characters, yet it is unlikely that any of them will have the same strength as the numbers suggested. Shepard should have no problem winning this match, but the battle for second and whether Shepard is strong enough to defeat Aerith will be interesting to watch.

While I do not think he is a hidden powerhouse I feel Captain Olimar has been unfortunate in his contest career and that he is stronger than what his numbers suggest. Now that he is as far away from Nintendo as possible we will be able to see his true strength. I still suspect fodder, but at least he will be decent fodder as oppose to terrible fodder.

If Kain’s strength from 2004 remained the same he would have no problem taking second in this match, but a lot has happened since we last saw him. The biggest thing is that he has not been in a game since the last time we saw him. 10 years without a game in a series that is not hugely popular on GameFAQs is a death sentence. No way is he ranked around the fodder line like his stats suggest.

People seem to be quite excited about Shepard and how strong he will be, but I feel he will be a relative disappointment when everything is over. In 2010 Shepard had Mass Effect 2 released between his first and second round matches and the hype for that game was almost like Halo 3. What we saw in Master Chief in 2007 and 2008 we will see in Shepard. Of course things are bit more complicated with Mass Effect 3 being released since 2010, but at best Shepard will not be too far off from his performance in 2010 compared to the near-elite some people are hyping.

I am going with Olimar for second place, but Kain could very well finish in second should he retain enough strength or if Olimar really is the terrible fodder that his stats show. Shepard should have no problem winning, but he may disappoint a few people with his performance.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Commander Shepard > Captain Olimar and Kain

charmander6000’s Prediction: Commander Shepard – 54.85%, Captain Olimar – 23.83%, Kain – 21.32%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 2/2 Today's Picks: Yoshi and Shepard