Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1058

#51 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/9/2013 3:46:49 PM | message detail
I wish poll updates were up so I could compare the time when Waluigi was being rallied to the rest of the match.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#52 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 3:49:47 PM | message detail
Raiden was initially getting 60% on Waluigi, it then went about even (Waluigi took out about 100 votes at its peak).
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#53 | special_sauce | Posted 7/9/2013 4:01:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
Articuno2001 posted...
I still have Alan Wake sitting in my backlog.

one of these days


Don't.

Everyone praises the story but it's literally like a AWFUL Stephen King novel (and they namedrop him like 8000 times).
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#54 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:02:31 PM | message detail
Raiden scored 61.40% on Waluigi last hour. I guess Raiden would've only gotten just above 60% on Waluigi without rallying
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#55 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:03:49 PM | message detail
KARPWATCH

82.72% on Tingle

Link got 85.85% on Tingle

KARP KARP KARP
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RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#56 | RBYAlwaysWins | Posted 7/9/2013 4:09:19 PM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
KARPWATCH

82.72% on Tingle

Link got 85.85% on Tingle

KARP KARP KARP


Not even Link can fight the RAW.

Muhuahahahahahaa!
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Always.
#57 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:14:32 PM | message detail
So Raiden without his own game would lose for sure,correct?
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#58 | superange128 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:15:16 PM | message detail
MAYBE before MSG4 he could have lost
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#59 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:39:14 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I wish poll updates were up so I could compare the time when Waluigi was being rallied to the rest of the match.


Creative have updated his site... all the updates are there

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=5144&num=3
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#60 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:45:00 PM | message detail
I thought Waluigi made more of a run than that.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#61 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/9/2013 4:51:13 PM | message detail
Hey guys, is there still somewhere on this site that shows the % of people that got each match right like there used to be? And also the # of people on 1 and # on 0?

I can only find the top 50 leaderboard :(
#62 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/9/2013 4:52:41 PM | message detail
These features are missing.Perhaps an error?I hope TRE can explain.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#63 | creativename | Posted 7/9/2013 5:04:54 PM | message detail
Alan Wake, more like Alan Ambien.

Or Alan Zolpidem for those who prefer generic and the A-Z angle. But it lacks the alliteration, so meh.

BTW guys, my graphs appear bork'd. I coded them using a PEAR library called Image_Graph. But with php 5.4 the old library didn't work, and when I upgraded to the new library version I get the graph but...no data points. No idea what the problem is, the code looks like it should work, yet it does not.

So unless someone around here happens to be an expert at the Image_Graph library, graphs won't be working, sad to say :\ They were one feature I myself used all the time to see trends, so that kinda sucks.
#64 | creativename | Posted 7/9/2013 5:06:40 PM | message detail
Oh, and sorry about no updates. Luster gave me his, thanks Luster :)

I was on vacation and completely forgot the contest was even happening. I missed predicting the first two Oracle matches...grrr.
#65 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 5:31:26 PM | message detail
18 vote cut
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#66 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 5:36:51 PM | message detail
The 18 vote cut was caused by another 4chan rally on /v/ again.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#67 | General_Zimbad | Posted 7/9/2013 5:45:01 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
These features are missing.Perhaps an error?I hope TRE can explain.


I hope they still have these features, being able to see what percentile you're in was awesome.
#68 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 5:49:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
These vote totals are the worse we've seen.

My TB is 42,013.

Is a 1st Round match going to even break that?
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5vsjNPEzTFfxNmO426ofUiDZYFTl1zjtMn
#69 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 6:11:47 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
My TB is 42,013.


If you based your tiebreaker on the total number of votes in the final match, then you misread the tiebreaker question. They changed the tiebreaker question this year. Instead of predicting the total votes in the final match, you have to predict the number of votes the winner will receive in the final match. Basically, you need to predict the number of votes received by Link, Cloud, or Snake in the final match (whoever manages to win the entire contest).

If you assume the winner gets about 40% of the votes in the final match, you should expect the winner to get between 20000 and 28000 votes when the final match gets between 50000 and 70000 votes overall.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#70 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/9/2013 6:16:12 PM | message detail
I went way overboard with the tiebreaker, as in 45k. Didn't expect such depressing vote totals.
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#71 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 6:23:55 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
My TB is 42,013.


If you based your tiebreaker on the total number of votes in the final match, then you misread the tiebreaker question. They changed the tiebreaker question this year. Instead of predicting the total votes in the final match, you have to predict the number of votes the winner will receive in the final match. Basically, you need to predict the number of votes received by Link, Cloud, or Snake in the final match (whoever manages to win the entire contest).

If you assume the winner gets about 40% of the votes in the final match, you should expect the winner to get between 20000 and 28000 votes when the final match gets between 50000 and 70000 votes overall.


Yeah, I know that.

My TB is Link to get 42,013 votes.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5vsjNPEzTFfxNmO426ofUiDZYFTl1zjtMn
#72 | spooky96 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:21:32 PM | message detail
My TB is 22576, assuming we'll have total votes in the high 50,000s.
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#73 | 2Dover3D | Posted 7/9/2013 7:22:14 PM | message detail
Who do you guys have for 2nd place tonight? I'm thinking Solaire but I know so little about those 2 guys that I just have no idea.
#74 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:22:22 PM | message detail
Match III: (9) Yoshi vs. (10) Solaire of Astora vs. (19) Demi-Fiend

Previous Contest

Yoshi – 2010
76.62% against Jak
48.49% against Missingno

Solaire of Astora – N/A
N/A

Demi-Fiend – N/A
N/A

Analysis

While this is Yoshi’s eighth character battle he seems to have trouble avoiding Nintendo opponents. With Link in the second round this will be the seventh time he’s either lost to or was held back by a Nintendo character with Solid Snake in 2006 being the only time he avoided that fate. Still Yoshi gets the pleasure of another crushing first round win.

The hardest part about doing write-ups for this contest in the first round is that there are multiple matches where I have not played a game of at least two of the entrants and they have no prior contest experience. We have Solaire from Dark Souls and Demi-Fiend from Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne and my guess is as good as anyone as to where they rank strength-wise.

If a match between the two games occurred I would go with Dark Souls, but that is more because of the weakness of Nocturne. Outside of Persona 3 and 4 the Shin Megami Tensei series is a rather niche series and even then Persona 4 did not exactly show to have much strength. I would say Nocturne is a bit more known than the average game from the series, but that is not saying much.

Solaire probably wins unless Demi-Fiend really benefits from his design. This will be the first test on the strength of Shin Megami Tensei characters and I think it will reveal that the characters are going to be weak.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Yoshi > Solaire of Astora and Demi-Fiend

charmander6000’s Prediction: Yoshi – 62.35%, Solaire of Astora – 20.62%, Demi-Fiend – 17.03%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#75 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/9/2013 7:31:31 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
These vote totals are the worse we've seen.

My TB is 42,013.

Is a 1st Round match going to even break that?


Seriously, I am actually shocked at the low turnout this contest is getting at the moment. You'd think after a three year hiatus there would be some interest but nope.
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#76 | abdou | Posted 7/9/2013 7:56:00 PM | message detail
we were averaging terrible votals before the contest began anyway , so I would not blame this on the contest
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#77 | superange128 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:57:09 PM | message detail
I see people didnt notice the tiebreaker is how many votes the winning ENTRANT will get not the total votes
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#78 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 8:13:56 PM | message detail
#79 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/9/2013 8:15:37 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
How do these votals compare to the last contest?

Slightly worse than Rivalry Rumble so far D:
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#80 | StarStormScream | Posted 7/9/2013 8:25:42 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
I see people didnt notice the tiebreaker is how many votes the winning ENTRANT will get not the total votes


My TB is 45,123 and I understood it perfectly. I just thought the contest would surely raise the votals overtime.

Also, when checking out the main page on my phone during my break, it certainly doesn't help that the poll is all the way on the bottom of the mobile page.
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Now Awaiting:
Tales of Xillia, Squigly patch for Skullgirls
#81 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 8:53:33 PM | message detail
I based my TB on a 70-75k match for the final
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#82 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 8:57:36 PM | message detail
#83 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/9/2013 8:58:23 PM | message detail
This years contest really is user friendly though. Seeing the character pics with their percentage and votes is pretty cool.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5vsjNPEzTFfxNmO426ofUiDZYFTl1zjtMn
#84 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 8:59:31 PM | message detail
Too bad Raiden couldn't get past 50
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#85 | Master Moltar | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:17 PM | message detail
Yoshi
100%
6 Votes
Your Pick
Solaire of Astora
0%
0 Votes
Demi-Fiend
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 6

yoshi strong
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Moltar Status: Crew
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#86 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:35 PM | message detail
Dat board vote.

Yoshi
84.21%
16 Votes

Solaire of Astora
10.53%
2 Votes

Demi-Fiend
5.26%
1 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#87 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:46 PM | message detail
Solaire strong early, which I suspect is a lot of expert challenge voting right now.
#88 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:53 PM | message detail
God damn, Nintendo is looking horrible except for Waluigi.
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#89 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Yoshi
100%
5 Votes
Your Pick

Solaire of Astora
0%
0 Votes

Demi-Fiend
0%
0 Votes
#90 | swirIdude | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:07 PM | message detail
And Yoshi's off to the races! Actually, if the match stays around this, I can win the Oracle!
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#91 | Blairville | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:10 PM | message detail
The board has spoken; Praise the Sun!
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#92 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:21 PM | message detail
aw yeah got vote #27

3rd vote for Demi-Fiend
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~Masa
#93 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:45 PM | message detail
God damn, Nintendo is looking horrible except for Waluigi.

Yoshi looks fine right now.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#94 | pyresword | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:03 PM | message detail
Masato_Tanaka posted...
aw yeah got vote #27

3rd vote for Demi-Fiend


Well you beat me I guess. I was the 4th though!
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#95 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:36 PM | message detail
Yeah Yoshi is doing what he's supposed to right now.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#96 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:55 PM | message detail
Woops, forgot to make expert picks for this match. Guess I really don't care about the contests as much as I used to. >_>
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#97 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/9/2013 9:03:33 PM | message detail
Votals are good tonight, by the way. This should be beating Link at the freeze by a good margin, and that freeze had 6 minutes instead of 5.
#98 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:22 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
God damn, Nintendo is looking horrible except for Waluigi.

Yoshi looks fine right now.


Yeah, this is about what I expected. I originally had Yoshi getting over 70% in my Oracle, but I downgraded it to about 62% when I saw what Link did. Yoshi probably drops off a bit after the board vote, so my prediction looks pretty good so far.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#99 | swirIdude | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:31 PM | message detail
Perhaps people didn't know the contest was starting when the first match occurred and now they do?
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#100 | Xuxon | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:35 PM | message detail
finally a match that makes sense

(also got my expert pick in just seconds before close woo)
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