Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1057

#301 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/9/2013 6:38:07 AM | message detail
He'll still be far south of the oracle average.

But he is flying now. Would've looked way better with a day match.
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#302 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 6:41:27 AM | message detail
Match II: (6) Raiden vs. (13) Waluigi vs. (22) Alan Wake

Previous Contest

Raiden – 2008
28.35% against Master Chief, Kain Highwind and Professor Layton
12.04% against Kirby, Master Chief and Big Boss

Waluigi – N/A
N/A

Alan Wake – N/A
N/A

Analysis

While it is impossible to give everyone an interesting match I feel Raiden is a bit wasted. With the release of Metal Gear Rising he had an opportunity to be placed in various questionable matches. Even without Rising Raiden should have no problem winning this match easily and given that these two opponents are new we will not have any idea on how much he has boosted.

Alan Wake is the first in a long list of characters who wished there was a character battle in 2011 or 2012. The game Alan Wake had decent reception when it was released and while he would not have likely been any more than fodder back then his sequel has essentially been put on pause and with each passing year more people are likely to forget about him.

I have had difficulty trying to place Waluigi’s strength. While I am confident that he will be the weakest Mario character to have appeared in a contest, with the exception of Toad whose only match had Bowser in the same poll that still gives him a large range as both Peach and Wario have shown to be above the fodder line. Trying to use the Rivalry Rumble is not the best idea either as Luigi and Waluigi is a terrible rivalry and that contest showed that characters did not follow their usual strength.

I would imagine Waluigi would suffer from anti-votes, but he does have his fans and I feel Mario fans are numerous enough to give him second place. Raiden should be able to break 50% over the two fodder characters, but with the re-emergence of anti-blowoutFAQs he could struggle to reach that mark.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Raiden > Waluigi and Alan Wake

charmander6000’s Prediction: Raiden – 51.74%, Waluigi – 26.34%, Alan Wake – 21.92%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#303 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/9/2013 6:43:56 AM | message detail
Gonna call it now: Waluigi gives Raiden a good scare.

These second matches are always a bit weird.
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#304 | LionInAComa | Posted 7/9/2013 6:49:27 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
I have had difficulty trying to place Waluigi’s strength. While I am confident that he will be the weakest Mario character to have appeared in a contest, with the exception of Toad whose only match had Bowser in the same poll that still gives him a large range as both Peach and Wario have shown to be above the fodder line.


I think he's likely to be around Daisy strength if not a little stronger thanks to his recent cult following.
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Don't keep the lion in a coma.
#305 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/9/2013 6:59:36 AM | message detail
You know what bothers me most about this match? Tingle is doing significantly better on Link than GDorf did.
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#306 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:05:14 AM | message detail
Okay I just noticed.In the match pic Isaac is smiling.But in the results pic he is crying?What is going on?
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#307 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:06:26 AM | message detail
Results pic is the character's profile pic and the match pic is the match pic.
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NGirl@work or on phone.
#308 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:28:42 AM | message detail
72% get!

1v1:
Link beats Isaac 82,19%
Link beats Tingle 85,3%
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#309 | Greyfeld | Posted 7/9/2013 7:40:14 AM | message detail
XIII_socks posted...
Concerned with anyone who would say "don't worry, Link will win". Are people actively rooting for him? Still?


I voted for Tingle as a joke. I'm not in the least bit phased by Link's performance in this match.
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#310 | KingBartz | Posted 7/9/2013 7:41:50 AM | message detail
From: nintendogirl2 | #305
You know what bothers me most about this match? Tingle is doing significantly better on Link than GDorf did.


Let's all get on the Tingle > Ganondorf boat!
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#311 | hylianknight3 | Posted 7/9/2013 7:45:14 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Okay I just noticed.In the match pic Isaac is smiling.But in the results pic he is crying?What is going on?


He started crying when he saw the results page.
#312 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 7:47:53 AM | message detail
I highly doubt Ganon would get his doors blown off quite as badly these days.

90% sounds too ridiculous
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#313 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 8:01:21 AM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Luster, unless I'm mistaken your updater stopped working at 7:31 am. I don't know why.


Keep in mind that these have to be updated manually. Although I have a script tracking updates automatically, they still have to be inputted manually into the spreadsheet.
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#314 | junk_funk | Posted 7/9/2013 8:12:02 AM | message detail
Wish I hadn't taken Epona so far now.
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#315 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/9/2013 8:18:10 AM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Wish I hadn't taken Epona so far now.


If Tingle can do this well despite Link, imagine what Epona can do to Ike!
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T H E S T A B L E - bring on Epona!
http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
#316 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 8:19:24 AM | message detail
Vote totals have slowed down significantly after the first hour. Based on the first hour alone, this poll was on track to break 31000 votes, but now we won't even reach 29000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#317 | spooky96 | Posted 7/9/2013 8:42:57 AM | message detail
29k still seems like a possibility.
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#318 | Achromatic | Posted 7/9/2013 8:44:06 AM | message detail
Well, 72.5% is the bar to beat in three ways now.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#319 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/9/2013 8:47:36 AM | message detail
junk_funk posted...
Wish I hadn't taken Epona so far now.


We'll be able to see tomorrow just how much of a chance Epona has. I think Mordin will beat her but I'm not totally confident, but a smackdown by Shepard will give me the boost of confidence I need.
#320 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 8:50:27 AM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
Well, 72.5% is the bar to beat in three ways now.


Look at all this DAMAGE CONTROL
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#321 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 8:56:05 AM | message detail
Failing to SFF Tingle isn't a sign of weakness and I guess Isaac is just stronger than we thought.

/Damage_Control
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#322 | Achromatic | Posted 7/9/2013 8:56:22 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Achromatic posted...
Well, 72.5% is the bar to beat in three ways now.


Look at all this DAMAGE CONTROL


Well if someone blows this out of the water then obviously Link is in trouble. Otherwise, this is the bar.
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Death is not to be feared, but avoidance never hurt anyone.
#323 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 8:59:55 AM | message detail
Come on Raiden papa needs a brand new pair of shoes
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#324 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:05 AM | message detail
Enough of Link, time to vote for Raiden!!!
#325 | MarquessLaus | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:28 AM | message detail
Raiden
47.06%
8 Votes
Your Pick
Waluigi
52.94%
9 Votes
Alan Wake
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 17
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#326 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:33 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted






Raiden

46.88%

15 Votes





Waluigi

46.88%

15 Votes

Your Pick





Alan Wake

6.25%

2 Votes

Total Votes: 32
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POKEFEAR
#327 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:34 AM | message detail
Raiden
52.38%
11 Votes

Waluigi
47.62%
10 Votes

Alan Wake
0%
0 Votes

lol Alan
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#328 | superange128 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:37 AM | message detail
literally Waluigi
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#329 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:42 AM | message detail
How do I show you guys my vote result =(
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#330 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:42 AM | message detail
oh god alan wake
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#331 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:52 AM | message detail
oh god alan wake
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#332 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 9:00:56 AM | message detail
#333 | CrushDavis | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:10 AM | message detail
I have a new respect for Isaac now that we see what true fodder is like
#334 | spooky96 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:18 AM | message detail
lol He was 0 when I voted for Raiden lol
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#335 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:18 AM | message detail
Oh, appears I overestimated Mr. Wake.
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#336 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:19 AM | message detail
4th vote.

Though I wonder if numbers off, because as I showed in the screenshot, it said I was the third vote last night but it showed all three votes for Link.
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#337 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:30 AM | message detail
Raiden
20%
1 Votes

Waluigi
80%
4 Votes

Alan Wake
0%
0 Votes

TOO BAD. WALUIGI TIME.
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#338 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:01:57 AM | message detail
Curses the leaderboard is still alphabetical rather than whoever submitted their bracket first.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#339 | GloriousSweater | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:17 AM | message detail
I figured Wake would be awful, really thought about taking him under 18%, but I think he'll rebound a nice bit from this floor.
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#340 | pjbasis | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:20 AM | message detail
Didn't expect Alan to do so bad
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#341 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/9/2013 9:02:33 AM | message detail
Well, this one's going as expected. Oh well.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#342 | Xuxon | Posted 7/9/2013 9:03:16 AM | message detail
man i thought Layton was Alan's floor, but he's doing even worse so far
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#343 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/9/2013 9:03:36 AM | message detail
This is what happens when you don't make a sequel
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#344 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 7/9/2013 9:03:41 AM | message detail
LMAO Allan Wake. Does anyone even care about that game?
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Currently Playing: Bioshock Infinite
#345 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/9/2013 9:04:00 AM | message detail
Looks like the freeze happened earlier than usual.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#346 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/9/2013 9:04:05 AM | message detail
Did the match just stop accepting votes?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#347 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:04 AM | message detail
Alan Wake, time to wake up!
#348 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:08 AM | message detail
Expecting Alan Wake to do reasonably well?

TOO BAD
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And then the car wash cost five dollars.
#349 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:28 AM | message detail
At freeze:

Raiden's got 58.36% on Waluigi
Raiden's got 81.02% on Alan Wake
Waluigi's got 75.28% on Alan Wake
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#350 | KamikazePotato | Posted 7/9/2013 9:05:46 AM | message detail
So who takes (Binding of) Isaac to dominate Alan Wake pre-contest?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.