Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1056

#401 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/8/2013 6:18:32 PM | message detail
I'm just so damn hyped to see Link crush some fodder!
#402 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 6:32:46 PM | message detail
Ngamer64 posted...
The "nah but I'll still vote" numbers are actually pretty encouraging, IMO.


I'm sure the percentage of users who refuse to vote in the PotD (when there isn't a contest going on) would probably be higher than the 15.52% who said that they aren't voting during this contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#403 | Master Moltar | Posted 7/8/2013 6:44:39 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
When will the "Contest Analysis Crew" be up?


http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66680192
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Moltar Status: Alive
Contest Analysis Crew Archives: http://thecrew.speedrunwiki.com/
#404 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/8/2013 6:47:19 PM | message detail
Since I'll be asleep when the first match starts...

Here's to Tingle scoring worse than Tanner! Seriously, Link/Tingle is the one match I always most wanted to see, if only to see that sick freak get annihilated by Link. I mean, if Link can crush the Dorf worse than CATS, imagine what he'll do to Tingle!
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#405 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/8/2013 6:58:37 PM | message detail
Match I: (1) Link vs. (18) Isaac vs. (27) Tingle

Previous Contest

Link – 2010
79.81% against Thrall
71.79% against Alucard
67.28% against Mega Man X
71.13% against Luigi
70.23% against Sonic the Hedgehog
64.57% against Mario
53.54% against Cloud Strife

Isaac – N/A
N/A

Tingle – 2007
7.62% against Luigi, Mudkip and Pit

Analysis

It’s great to be back for another edition of the character battle. Cannot believe our last true character battle was back in 2010. For this edition we have a massive 243 characters and SBAllen has made the format into a 3-way with the winner advancing.

While the bracket is constructed in an attempt to have Link lose that will not be happening until later in the contest, if at all. The first match of the contest and we could be witnessing the largest blowout of the entire bracket. It is quite conceivable that Link could push upwards towards 90% against these two opponents due to SFF and the likely weakness of Isaac.

The best part about the Expert Challenge is that it gives some debate where the winner is obvious. While I feel Tingle would be able to use the Zelda fanbase to give him the win over Isaac with Link in the poll and the fact that Zelda fans do not really like Tingle makes things a bit more complicated. We have seen what Link has done to Ganondorf and Zelda in the past and those two actually have strength. Even against Luigi he failed to break 15% head to head, but to his defense he was at the bottom of a four Nintendo pile-up.

The other issue is Isaac is not exactly a beacon of strength either. This particular Isaac is from The Binding of Isaac and is likely the weakest of the three in this contest. Joke votes alone could be enough to give Tingle the edge.

I feel that Isaac will have enough strength to win over an SFF Tingle, but at the same time I would not be surprised if the reverse result happens. Breaking 80% is a 3-way match is something difficult to perform, but Link should have no problem breaking that mark.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Link > Tingle and Isaac

charmander6000’s Prediction: Link – 84.46%, Isaac – 8.53%, Tingle – 7.01%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#406 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 7:19:26 PM | message detail
Less than an hour left! Make your picks for Character Battle IX today - the deadline is at 8PM Pacific!

This is the current site alert for users who haven't filled out a bracket yet.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#407 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 7:26:11 PM | message detail
I still don't know the exact URL for the match pictures. I have a script that is tracking 16 different URL combinations for the first match picture of the contest and I still haven't figured out the URL for the first match picture of the contest.

We might have to wait until the first match officially starts so we can figure out the exact URL format for the match pictures.

Here was the URL format for the match pictures in Rivalry Rumble:

http://image.com.com/gamefaqs/images/rivals/rivals-XX.jpg

XX = match number

However, sometime in 2012, GameFAQs started using "img.gamefaqs.net" instead of "image.com.com", so I have no idea what URL format will be used for match pictures.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#408 | Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2013 7:33:38 PM | message detail
based on the front page, it's safe to assume it'd be located at

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/

just a question on the file names... probably like cbnine-01.jpg
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#409 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 7:35:41 PM | message detail
I tried cbnine-01.jpg, but it didn't work. I would assume by now, the match pictures have been uploaded already.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#410 | Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2013 7:36:43 PM | message detail
if you assume that then you don't know Bacon very well
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#411 | Devin Morgan (Admin) | Posted 7/8/2013 7:37:01 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I tried cbnine-01.jpg, but it didn't work. I would assume by now, the match pictures have been uploaded already.


Nope, only the first day's matchups have pictures available now, and you haven't found the URL yet. ;)
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Devin Morgan | CRP #3579
NES FAQ Completion Project:
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#412 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 7:37:14 PM | message detail
I have tried 16 different combinations, none of which have worked.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#413 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 7:39:51 PM | message detail
Oh snap admin trolling us
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#414 | methedemon | Posted 7/8/2013 7:41:38 PM | message detail
Luster don't fail us find the pics
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Demon Fang ...Demon Fang .. Damn I must be a genius, DOUBLE Demon Fang!
#415 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/8/2013 7:41:58 PM | message detail
DEVIIIIIIN

you are tearing me apart devin
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~Zen
#416 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/8/2013 7:45:10 PM | message detail
My new theory is that because Bacon wanted renders of the characters, there will be a stock background and rotating pictures that are overlayed over it so that all of them get used (that are usable).

I mean they're going all-out for this contest so I would imagine they'd do something special
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~Zen
#417 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/8/2013 7:45:29 PM | message detail
Good luck all.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#418 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2013 7:48:22 PM | message detail
Late to the Vincent discussion, but I think he's actually the least likely to drop. The only FF7 characters that seem to be weakening are really Cloud/Sephiroth, and that's probably more to their "perceived" reputation of always winning. The other characters are still all right.
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"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745
#419 | SantaRPidgey | Posted 7/8/2013 8:00:20 PM | message detail
#420 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 8:00:42 PM | message detail
Brackets have been locked down.

The brackets were locked down at 11:00:11 PM EST.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#421 | LinkLegend27 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:01:18 PM | message detail
Oh God I switched from Ryu H to Zack Fair last minute. #ZackFAQs
#422 | Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2013 8:01:46 PM | message detail
i switched to Magikarp winning it all god help me
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#423 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 7/8/2013 8:02:34 PM | message detail
When's the last time Samus had an interesting path
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#424 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 8:02:56 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
When's the last time Samus had an interesting path


2002
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#425 | Xuxon | Posted 7/8/2013 8:03:46 PM | message detail
#426 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2013 8:03:47 PM | message detail
I actually switched to Ryu H in the last minute.
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"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745
#427 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:04:18 PM | message detail
Let's see, Isaac should be good for 2nd, the Binding of Isaac has sold millions of copies surprisingly enough.
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#428 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/8/2013 8:05:14 PM | message detail
I'm not crazy for having Cloud win this all, right? Last time he managed 47% on Link. If Mario's in the poll then he wins that with SFF, right? The only trouble is if Cloud will make the final. I think if it's Snake/Cloud/Crono or Snake/Cloud/Sora then it's a tough fight against him. But I think Cloud has a real chance if it's Snake/Cloud/Pikachu and if that's the case he can win the tournament. Now, I don't have Pikachu in the semis but I don't think it's ridiculous to think Cloud has a chance to win. Is it?
#429 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/8/2013 8:05:34 PM | message detail
I have Vincent Valentine, Big Boss, Sora and Charizard making the Final Nine along with Link, Mario, Solid Snake, Cloud Strife, and Samus Aran.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#430 | spooky96 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:06:05 PM | message detail
I picked Zack without even thinking once and never even though of changing that once.

Oh and Samsus vs Sonic...that come back.
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#431 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:07:23 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
I have Vincent Valentine, Big Boss, Sora and Charizard making the Final Nine along with Link, Mario, Solid Snake, Cloud Strife, and Samus Aran.

How does Big Boss beat Sephy?
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#432 | spooky96 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:08:42 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
I'm not crazy for having Cloud win this all, right? Last time he managed 47% on Link. If Mario's in the poll then he wins that with SFF, right? The only trouble is if Cloud will make the final. I think if it's Snake/Cloud/Crono or Snake/Cloud/Sora then it's a tough fight against him. But I think Cloud has a real chance if it's Snake/Cloud/Pikachu and if that's the case he can win the tournament. Now, I don't have Pikachu in the semis but I don't think it's ridiculous to think Cloud has a chance to win. Is it?


You're not the only one, if you count no-bodies, I too have Cloud winning in that case. It is Link vs Cloud vs Mario for me, and Mario dragging down Link to Cloud to win.

Though yeah, getting past Snake with probably Sora in it is one tough challenge for Cloud.

No worries, Cloud will come back after a decade! ('03, right? or is was it '02?) >_>
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#433 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/8/2013 8:12:04 PM | message detail
I realized that Solid Snake is Big Boss. MINDBLOWN

And Snake beat Sephy. Idk it's my BIG upset pick. I'll laugh if it happens. Cause I admit, it's craaaazy. Cray.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#434 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/8/2013 8:13:17 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
You're not the only one, if you count no-bodies, I too have Cloud winning in that case. It is Link vs Cloud vs Mario for me, and Mario dragging down Link to Cloud to win.

Though yeah, getting past Snake with probably Sora in it is one tough challenge for Cloud.

No worries, Cloud will come back after a decade! ('03, right? or is was it '02?) >_>


Honestly, part of my theory was 10 years sounds like a perfect time for 1 last hurrah. Yes, it was 2003.
#435 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:14:27 PM | message detail
The final BOP update (71 Brackets)

http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls

Here are the matches where less than 90% of the board agreed on the winner.

Round 1

Tharja – 45
Juliet Starling – 22
Tiny Tina – 4

Draven – 48
Jak – 16
Chie Satonaka – 7

Phoenix Wright – 43
Marth – 25
Nightmare – 3

The Boss – 62
Chrom – 9

Sub-Zero – 60
Garrus Vakarian – 11

Morrigan Aensland – 62
Miles Edgeworth – 8
Agent 47 – 1

Clementine – 35
Spyro the Dragon – 24
Reyn – 12

Ness – 55
Locke Cole – 14
CATS – 2

Wheatley – 49
Crash Bandicoot – 12
Tommy Vercetti – 10

Alucard – 56
Captain Falcon – 12
Rydia – 3

Bayonetta – 48
N – 23

Epona – 63
Mordin Solus – 7
Niko Bellic – 1

Altair – 63
Shulk – 8

Zack Fair – 50
Ryu Hayabusa – 15
Kefka – 6

Magus – 54
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 17

Booker DeWitt – 51
Gilgamesh – 20

Groose – 47
Yoshimitsu – 17
Lu Bu – 7

Lee Everett – 41
Mr. Game & Watch – 25
Meat Boy – 5

Nathan Drake – 44
Pac-Man – 23
Steve – 4

Fox McCloud – 42
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 29

Catherine – 33
Neku Sakuraba – 24
Vaas Montenegro – 14

Yuna – 40
Master Chief – 31

Missingno – 63
Tidus – 8

Wario – 46
Creeper – 25

Pit – 40
Cecil Harvey – 24
Urdnot Wrex – 7

Jill Valentine – 62
Red Bird – 5
Mike Haggar – 4

? Block – 45
Rikku – 25
Lyndis – 1

Round 2

Commander Shepard – 42
Aerith Gainsborough – 29

Mega Man X – 57
Ryu – 10
Draven – 2
Jigglypuff – 1
Chie Satonaka – 1

Big Boss – 41
Luigi – 30

GlaDOS – 32
Epona – 24
Ike – 14
Dr. Robotnik – 1

Zack Fair – 41
Ryu Hayabusa – 13
Altair – 9
Lara Croft – 4
Slime – 2
Shulk – 1
Kefka – 1

Dante – 42
Squirtle – 29

Pikachu – 53
Crono – 18

Fox McCloud – 36
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 25
Nathan Drake – 7
Steve – 2
Pac-Man – 1

Auron – 58
L-Block – 9
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 4

Tifa Lockheart – 54
Dragonborn – 11
Master Chief – 5
Yuna – 1

Squall Leonhart – 57
Missingno – 14

Pokemon Trainer Red – 51
Creeper – 9
Cecil Harvey – 9
Pit – 2

Charizard – 57
Zelda – 11
Lightning – 3

Round 3

Sonic the Hedgehog – 37
Vincent Valentine – 33
Bowser – 1

Sora – 42
Crono – 15
Pikachu – 13
Steve – 1

Charizard – 47
Mega Man – 21
Lightning – 2
Zelda – 1

Round 4

Solid Snake – 51
Cloud Strife – 19
Epona – 1

Mario – 60
Charizard – 5
Mega Man – 3
Samus Aran – 1
Squall Leonhart – 1
L-Block – 1

Round 5

Link – 58
Solid Snake – 11
Cloud Strife – 2
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#436 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/8/2013 8:14:59 PM | message detail
Ironic that I have Vincent making it farther than Seph this contest.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#437 | spooky96 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:16:42 PM | message detail
Round 4

Solid Snake – 51
Cloud Strife – 19
Epona – 1


I'm alerting you guys for going into depression B8, Cloud got DIS!
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#438 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:17:00 PM | message detail
Hmm, I'm one of 19 BOPs taking Cloud > Snake. Looks like I'm less cookie than I thought.
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Abound with so much information
#439 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2013 8:17:08 PM | message detail
All this time I thought I had a cookie-cutter bracket but it's actually pretty damn weird.
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"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745
#440 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:19:09 PM | message detail
This is the first contest where I'll be too busy to regularly read the stats topic. It makes me sad.
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#441 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/8/2013 8:19:55 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/11-sballin/66681112

free t-shirts to people who tweet and share or something
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~Zen
#442 | SnoicFactor | Posted 7/8/2013 8:20:52 PM | message detail
Link is gonna hit over 90%..
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nt
#443 | tennisboy213 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:34:36 PM | message detail
Ok, so I made 2 last minute changes to my bracket. I originally had Master Chief and Cecil Harvey winning, and I switched to Yuna and Pit. I did this at about 7:15 PDT and it definately updated under Enter the Contest > Bracket Challenge, but did NOT under Tournament > My Bracket. I click on the Share This Bracket: link and it still says Master Chief and Cecil Harvey.

I guess it doesn't make a big difference to me since the matches could go either way, but I guess I'll hold off on entering the Guru until the last minute in case it somehow updates before tomorrow night.
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POKEFEAR
#444 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/8/2013 8:36:09 PM | message detail
Hopefully I have a unique bracket in the guru this year (so many tiebreakers in the RR urgh). I have Reyn R1 and Missingno>Squall, so I should be good!
#445 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/8/2013 8:40:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_leaderboard

luster on leaderboard
gj
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#446 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 8:41:33 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_leaderboard

luster on leaderboard
gj


The only reason I'm on there is because the usernames are listed in alphabetical order. In fact, I actually made changes to my bracket earlier today.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#447 | Haste_2 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:42:42 PM | message detail
Bold prediction: Tingle will have over 20% in the first....eh, 30 seconds.
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#448 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:43:16 PM | message detail
15k brackets, is that good or bad?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 0/0 Today's Picks: Link and Raiden
#449 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/8/2013 8:43:41 PM | message detail
It sounds like a lot, based on today's poll.
#450 | Haste_2 | Posted 7/8/2013 8:44:36 PM | message detail
That's more than the rivalry contest, right?
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."