Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1056

#351 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/8/2013 9:51:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
It's just hard to predict what difference one less option makes when it comes to the other two sharing a fanbase; me thinks that it would be even more pronounced than in four ways, because you're essentially forced to vote the third option for the lack of a better one.

And what better vote magnet is Pokemon?
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#352 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/8/2013 10:31:36 AM | message detail
Justin_Crossing posted...
so guys

why does everyone assume snake is just going to mandhandle cloud with sora in the poll

when he only beat cloud by 0.25% with sephiroth in the poll? i mean kirby was there too but i doubt kirby's influence was that huge


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3302

Cloud 57-43 Snake in the previous round. Cloud was clearly still at the top of his game that year but showed signs of weakness in 2010 when he could only score 52% on Snake.
#353 | abdou | Posted 7/8/2013 10:42:53 AM | message detail
In 2010 It was a combination of Cloud/FF7 weakening and Snake getting momentum after defeating Sephiroth. I don't think Snake will be as strong as he was in 2010 or even in 2008, but most seem to agree that Cloud will also be significantly weaker than last time.
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#354 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 11:19:07 AM | message detail
Weaker Cloud, stronger Snake than 2008.
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#355 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/8/2013 11:24:11 AM | message detail
I was actually wondering this myself earlier looking at my bracket, "huh, why am I assuming Sora's gonna hold Cloud back THAT much? oh well, YOLO"
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#356 | abdou | Posted 7/8/2013 11:26:08 AM | message detail
in 2008 Snake had MGS4 and SSBB . Why would he be stronger now in 2013?
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#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 11:30:59 AM | message detail
Well, he went from needing MGS4 and Brawl with some bandwagon powers and LFF to even get close to Cloud to getting 48% on him all by himself.

Seems legit.
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#358 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/8/2013 11:54:49 AM | message detail
It's the final day, and in addition to finalizing Kirby > Sephiroth and Missingno > Squall, I've decided to truly go all-in with Pokemon/Nintendo.

Mewtwo > Vincent

This means that Phoenix Wright must beat Marth, because Marth's presence in R2 makes a Mewtwo win impossible. However, this also gives Sonic a guaranteed win against Bowser/Mewtwo in that important R3 match.

Something about Vincent just smelled funny in 2010, and hell, it has been three freakin years. If FFVII has continued a downward trend while Pokemon does what it's done the past few contests, I'll feel very good about Mewtwo's chances.
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#359 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 11:57:33 AM | message detail
A Mewtwo win is pretty improbable anyway.

and what exactly was wrong with Vincent anyway

Blowout win against Guybrush and an SFF match with Sephiroth
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#360 | Denzokuken | Posted 7/8/2013 12:00:54 PM | message detail
Snake will be weaker than in 2008. I also think people citing the 2010 match between Snake/Cloud are underestimating the massive burden on FFVII in 1v1s - that is, antivotes.
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#361 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 7/8/2013 12:02:55 PM | message detail
Epona > Snake

Dream big.
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#362 | Whiskey_Nick | Posted 7/8/2013 12:05:29 PM | message detail
Boko > Zero

This leads to Boko > Claptrap/? Block and then

Mega Man > Boko/Zard

Mega Man in final 3

I WIN GURU ... yup
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#363 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/8/2013 12:10:19 PM | message detail
That said, I've also hopped off the Team Nintendo train (more like hopped back a cart) by taking GlaDOS > Epona. Ike is guaranteed to get there, and I feel his presence is just too big a burden on a second - unproven - Nintendo character.

As for Mewtwo, I liked his performance on Ganondorf in 2010. FFVII had a bad enough contest for me to consider Ganondorf a favorite against Vincent that year, which means that Mewtwo could have scored respectably in the 40s against FFVII's #3 guy (or does that title go to Tifa now?). Couple that with three years or change (an upward trend for Pokemon and a downward trend for FFVII? - quite possible) and I consider it a worthy risk. The problem is the night match timeframe, though. Were it a day match, I would feel much more confident, but I'm still going with it.
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#364 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 12:16:27 PM | message detail
Ganondorf may beat Vincent now, but that's still a decent gap for Mewtwo to bridge.

Mewtwo's more likely to finish behind Phoenix than beat Vincent.
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#365 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/8/2013 12:19:01 PM | message detail
Seriously? That sounds like quite a statement given that our last contest had Pokemon Trainers go completely even with Cloud and Sephiroth. It's a relatively high-profile Nintendo vs. Square match. Even if Mewtwo loses, the Nintendo fans won't let him fall below Phoenix, not even close.
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#366 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 12:25:19 PM | message detail
Even with Pokemon mania, Mewtwo has never looked nearly as strong as even Pikachu. I know people want to believe Mewtwo's a beast because it's MEWTWO, but he's never shown that. I guess you can bank on 95% of the site loving Pokemon more than life itself now, but eh.
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#367 | abdou | Posted 7/8/2013 12:28:34 PM | message detail
I am confused at all of this "FF7 is weak now" we have no proof or stats showing how much weaker FF7 has gotten since 2010, if it's weaker at all.
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#368 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/8/2013 12:30:29 PM | message detail
Mewtwo should put up respectable numbers against Vincent, though I doubt he'll come anywhere close to beating him. If it were a day match and there was another Square character, maybe. Still, I doubt he'll be closer to Phoenix than Vincent unless Marth is there.
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#369 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/8/2013 12:34:17 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
I am confused at all of this "FF7 is weak now" we have no proof or stats showing how much weaker FF7 has gotten since 2010, if it's weaker at all.


Probably because it hasn't had anything keeping the game relevant in the past three years. Look at how much the CT crew has slid in recent years with only a DS port for them, and then look at the wonders Dissidia did for the likes of Cecil, Kefka, and Terra.

Of course, there's always the chance we get some actual KH3 info and the FF7 crew ends up looking great in it and they end up winning their debatable matches. Right now, it's safer to guess that FF7 will have lost a few steps, and even in 2010 Samus and Snake were right in striking distance of Cloud.
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#370 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 7/8/2013 12:44:28 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
I am confused at all of this "FF7 is weak now" we have no proof or stats showing how much weaker FF7 has gotten since 2010, if it's weaker at all.


The main reason there isn't much proof is because we've only had one contest (Rivals) since 2010 that featured FFVII in any shape or form. Sure, you can take that contest with a grain of salt or disregard it entirely, but it's hard to argue that FFVII looked worse IN 2010 than it ever did before. Cloud and Sephiroth struggled with and lost to characters they had never struggled with in a 1v1 format before.

We couldn't get a clear read on the lower-tier FFVII reps because of SFF matches (Zack vs. Yuna, Aerith vs. Auron, Vincent AND Tifa vs. Sephiroth, Cid being fed to the Noble Nine in his first match ever), but still, after an entire contest, the only FFVII rep who emerged looking alright was Tifa.

I'm simply betting on that downward trend to have (even very slowly) continued over the past three years, which I feel would give characters capable of exciting the Nintendo fanbase (like Kirby, Mewtwo, and Missingno) to have good shots at causing havoc.
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#371 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 1:22:43 PM | message detail
I just don't know if Mewtwo is that guy. Even when they had every reason to get behind him in 2008, they didn't.

Also, I'm pretty sure Ganon 2010 isn't on the same level as the Ganon from previous years either. Zelda in general was weaker in 2010, remember. It just didn't matter because FFVII dropped, too. Despite FFVII being weaker, Link couldn't beat Cloud by any more than he had before.
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#372 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/8/2013 1:47:49 PM | message detail
speaking of tonight match... who will win 2nd place between Isaac and Tingle... Is Tingle enough of a joke to win the match (if you can call that a win)
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#373 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 1:49:04 PM | message detail
That's been bugging me as well. I'm not sure if Zelda fanboys, knowing Link will win easily, will think it's humorous to vote for Tingle instead and give him the win. There's basically going to be less than 20% to go around between Tingle and Isaac, so it's anyone's guess. I've got Link > Tingle > Isaac right now, but I don't feel good about it.
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#374 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 1:53:47 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Now assuming this 20% drop holds over for the contest the average night poll will have 22684 votes while the average day poll will have 29054 votes based on the first round of the Rivalry Rumble.

I imagine something like Tharja/Starling/Tina struggling to break 15k.


The first round should have some really bad vote totals on some matches. Once we get all of the garbage eliminated in the first round, we should see better vote totals in round 2 and beyond.
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#375 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/8/2013 1:56:50 PM | message detail
A/D: We will have a match under 15k...

Also, Luster, what is the lowest votal ever for a contest match (and which one was it)
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#376 | anondum | Posted 7/8/2013 2:00:40 PM | message detail
cats-ness-locke and wheatley-crash-tommy seem like the biggest duds. fire emblem is at least a recent game with a modest following here.
#377 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 2:05:24 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
Also, Luster, what is the lowest votal ever for a contest match (and which one was it)


Lowest vote total for a 24-hour match - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4555
Lowest vote total for a night match - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4536
Lowest vote total for a day match - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4539

I'm not counting Link/Jay Solano because that wasn't on the front page.

If vote totals are bad enough, we'll have night matches with under 20000 votes, day matches with under 30000 votes, and 24-hour matches with under 40000 votes.
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#378 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 7/8/2013 2:38:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
We won't have a sub-40k 24 hr match. By the time we get to the 24 hour matches, all the entrants will be big vote draws.
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*shrug*
#379 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/8/2013 3:55:50 PM | message detail
What a Monday night this is gonna be. The Wyatt family debuts, and then the Character Battle starts :D
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#380 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/8/2013 4:01:25 PM | message detail
foxhead84 posted...
speaking of tonight match... who will win 2nd place between Isaac and Tingle... Is Tingle enough of a joke to win the match (if you can call that a win)


I want to say Isaac because I don't think Zelda fans (or gamers in general for that matter) will joke-vote Tingle in large numbers.
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#381 | ffmasterjose | Posted 7/8/2013 4:04:36 PM | message detail
I'm saying Isaac just because he's not Tingle, a fodder character from the same universe Link is in. Link's still gonna kill it, Isaac will just have enough to push past Tingle.

I wish it was midnight EST right now already
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#382 | Pizzaknight | Posted 7/8/2013 4:08:19 PM | message detail
Has anybody in here discussed the possibility of Mewtwo getting a boost from his latest movie appearance yet? That, combined with the whole "MewThree" buzz could give him a shot against Vincent. Pokemon fans sure seem to be more lively and enduring these days than FFVII fans, at least from my perspective.
#383 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 4:09:41 PM | message detail
Getting my spreadsheet ready to do some trend charts!

Aw yeah HYPE
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#384 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/8/2013 4:26:20 PM | message detail
Getting ready to stay up late checking updates and posting in this topic on a match that's a guaranteed blowout? Check.

Awwwwww yeah! It's contest season.
#385 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/8/2013 4:26:24 PM | message detail
Pizzaknight posted...
Has anybody in here discussed the possibility of Mewtwo getting a boost from his latest movie appearance yet? That, combined with the whole "MewThree" buzz could give him a shot against Vincent. Pokemon fans sure seem to be more lively and enduring these days than FFVII fans, at least from my perspective.


I'm not familiar enough with the Pokemon movies to know how popular they are with the Pokemon game fandom. I've heard nothing from gamers in general about the movies (aside from the "they are still making them?!" comments) so aside from Pokemon fans being more aware of Mewtwo (if the movies are as popular as you are getting at with Pokemon fans) I don't see them as a signifigant factor in giving Mewtwo a huge boost.
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#386 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/8/2013 4:30:38 PM | message detail
So it is a record?Around 79% say that they don't care about the contest.
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#387 | SonicRaptor | Posted 7/8/2013 4:37:16 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So it is a record?Around 79% say that they don't care about the contest.


It might be. The contest has been held for most of the last 11 years and Link has always won aside from years with freak boosts so a drop-off in brackets isn't surprising. I know every other year the poll always said the majority of visitors aren't entering but will vote.

Hey, less competition for us bracket-makers ;)
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#388 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/8/2013 4:38:01 PM | message detail
Right now, 78.77% of the site is not interested in filling out a bracket for this contest. That is higher than the Rivalry Rumble, despite the longer entry period and Bacon promoting the contest for the last 2 weeks with a site alert that is visible to all users and site visitors.
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#389 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/8/2013 4:38:47 PM | message detail
I would imagine the sheer size of the bracket is a deterrent.
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#390 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/8/2013 4:39:39 PM | message detail
Next time we need a 4-way with even more characters and the first 2 advancing!That would be chaotic!
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#391 | tgs2 | Posted 7/8/2013 4:43:59 PM | message detail
I don't really care about the prizes, but filling one out and watching the regulars here overreact in the first 30 minutes is, to me, part of the charm of these contests.

I feel like a lot of niche/JRPG characters are set to overperform with low votals+their hardcore fanbases.
#392 | pjbasis | Posted 7/8/2013 5:01:38 PM | message detail
Man, contest in 4 hours.

I'm so happy!
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#393 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/8/2013 5:04:33 PM | message detail
Anyone find the match pics yet?
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#394 | BeTheMan | Posted 7/8/2013 5:06:00 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
I don't really care about the prizes, but filling one out and watching the regulars here overreact in the first 30 minutes is, to me, part of the charm of these contests.

I feel like a lot of niche/JRPG characters are set to overperform with low votals+their hardcore fanbases.


Yeah, definitely thinking about that on a few of these matches. I mean, if it's only going to take 8,000 votes or so to win Jak/Draven/Chie, it's not unreasonable to think that any of the three could advance, or that Chie should actually be the favorite given Persona's relative popularity on this site.
#395 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 7/8/2013 5:13:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
So, Zen, are you and Ashethan already writing the fanfic for Character Battle 9? Good luck with handling 243 characters.

I don't see anything in Bounce It yet... >_>
#396 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 7/8/2013 5:19:29 PM | message detail
No I think we're skipping it. We had an idea that all 243 would be trapped in some kind of labyrinth and we'd kill them whenever we felt like it. There was going to be focus on certain characters and ones we didn't know/like (Touhou trio) were going to just be dead straight-up before the story started.

Ash wrote an intro-fic with Femshep, Garrus and Wrex, and I was going to write some Francis York Morgan stuff, but we just couldn't figure out an overall arc to work for an having them wander around in a cave is just kind of boring.
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#397 | Pizzaknight | Posted 7/8/2013 5:20:39 PM | message detail
The fanfic should be WWE-themed. Triple Threat matches all day, son!

Obviously, the guy in 3rd place is the one who gets pinned/taps out. Link is going to bury the hell out of everyone and overcome the odds once again, unless Mario can pull off the screwjob.
#398 | Ngamer64 | Posted 7/8/2013 5:49:53 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So it is a record?Around 79% say that they don't care about the contest.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Most_Anticipated_Contests

At the moment this poll would come out to 21.27%, placing it 16th out of 16 on the list.

...like Leon said though, I think the difficulty of picking winners out of 243 characters is just too daunting for people, especially since they probably haven't heard of half the field this year. The "nah but I'll still vote" numbers are actually pretty encouraging, IMO.
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#399 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/8/2013 6:00:18 PM | message detail
When will the "Contest Analysis Crew" be up?
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#400 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 7/8/2013 6:06:39 PM | message detail
Well Zen, if you decide and go back on the fanfic I can join. I can also write about the Touhou trio.