Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1056

#201 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/4/2013 8:55:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
creativename posted...
And will you be able to change your picks for the Expert Challenge up to the day before the actual match? Like with that other side contest from a few years back, I forget what it was called. The one where you picked the winner in-contest and longer streaks of picking right got you lots of points.


Yes, you can change your picks for the Expert Challenge up until the day the match actually starts. It's kind of like the Battle Challenge from the previous 2 contests.


creativename posted...
Another thing that really surprised me was Sora being a very large favorite over the Pikachu/Crono winner. I assume this is a day match? Though even a day match wouldn't help Sora so much over Pikachu. Why so much faith in Sora?

And how do you change your pick for a round 1 match after you've finished your bracket? I'm an idiot and can't figure it out >_>


On the entry form page, just click on a character's name to change your pick.

Pikachu/Crono is a day match. If Crono meets up with Sora in round 3, that will be a 24-hour match. Here is a bracket that shows what matches will be night matches or day matches:

http://i.imgur.com/0FfnAhd.png

I edited the HTML of the bracket to use dark blue and dark red background colors. Dark blue is a night match and dark red is a day match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#202 | scaryice | Posted 7/4/2013 9:08:54 PM | message detail
Characters by Year:

1980 - 2
1981 - 2
1982 - 0
1983 - 2
1984 - 1
1985 - 3
1986 - 10
1987 - 6
1988 - 1
1989 - 4
1990 - 6
1991 - 6
1992 - 8
1993 - 5
1994 - 8
1995 - 5
1996 - 16
1997 - 12
1998 - 12
1999 - 5
2000 - 7
2001 - 18
2002 - 8
2003 - 10
2004 - 3
2005 - 6
2006 - 4
2007 - 14
2008 - 9
2009 - 10
2010 - 13
2011 - 10
2012 - 14
2013 - 3
#203 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/5/2013 2:33:38 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Robotnik has a chance against Ike? And if he makes it past Round 1 he'll be sandwiched between a machine and a horse.
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~DChemist~
#204 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/5/2013 2:57:06 AM | message detail
I don't really see any reason to have confidence in Robotnik. Knux would struggle to beat Ike. Tails definitely wouldn't win against him, and Robotnik is going to be weaker than both.
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#205 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/5/2013 3:04:32 AM | message detail
Didn't say I had confidence.

I think I might pull the trigger though (one less bracket...), just to be different.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#206 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/5/2013 3:08:29 AM | message detail
If you want to pick someone to beat Ike, I'd say Protoman's got a better shot than Robotnik does.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#207 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/5/2013 3:12:33 AM | message detail
creativename posted...
Also is there anything like the BOP for the Expert Challenge?


Don't think so. Maybe just check the oracle topics from time to time to find out how the board feels about 2nd/3rd placement in upcoming matches.
#208 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/5/2013 3:56:43 AM | message detail
If you want to be different then later round matches are better. You'll gain more from it, but I guess also lose more.
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*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#209 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/5/2013 5:48:17 PM | message detail
Polls for the next 3 days:

7/6/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
7/7/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
7/8/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.

The poll for 7/8/2013 is definitely going to be related to filling out a bracket for the contest. The other 2 polls might be related to the contest.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#210 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/5/2013 9:01:59 PM | message detail
hum... interesting PotD here
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#211 | pjbasis | Posted 7/5/2013 9:12:00 PM | message detail
I can't believe Mario has that many votes.

People must be pretty unfamiliar with these things.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#212 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/5/2013 9:13:23 PM | message detail
Very interesting poll, voted for Link is unstoppable.
#213 | lightsout06 | Posted 7/5/2013 9:19:14 PM | message detail
Its been quite a while since the last Character Battle. I think Link will be pretty vulnerable this year.
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#214 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/5/2013 9:20:08 PM | message detail
Vulnerable to whom?

If anything, Link not winning a contest in the 2012 calendar year will make the Link voters even hungrier.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#215 | abdou | Posted 7/5/2013 9:23:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
Snake should be winning this

Its been quite a while since the last Character Battle. I think Link will be pretty vulnerable this year

Cloud is too weak and is only getting weaker. Snake couldn't beat Cloud in 2010. The rest of the strong characters are all Nintendo and don't stand a chance because of SFF. Link can not lose even if he is weaker, there is simply no one to take advantage of his weakness, except for maybe a joke character
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#216 | scaryice | Posted 7/5/2013 9:34:37 PM | message detail
Snake is our only hope.
#217 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/5/2013 9:36:10 PM | message detail
Link > Snake > Mario
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#218 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/5/2013 9:40:52 PM | message detail
Sonic in last place.
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#219 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/5/2013 9:42:56 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2497

Despite being an iconic character, people do not have faith in Sonic doing well in such contests.
#220 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/6/2013 3:51:20 AM | message detail
So according to poll,the N9 strength is:
Link
Cloud
Mario
Snake
Sephiroth
Mega Man
Crono
Samus
Sonic

I am surprised to tell the truth.Samus is too low and Cloud is too high.I guess because he has won once?
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#221 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/6/2013 3:55:13 AM | message detail
Doesn't mean anything for actual strength.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#222 | Zylothewolf | Posted 7/6/2013 4:19:24 AM | message detail
Sephiroth is the only correct answer.

Sonic is now Wii U exclusive and have been in a couple of really good games since the last contest so he's going to rSFF Link and then Sephiroth is going to win. Then the final is going to be Sephiroth VS Snake VS Mega Man (X can stay close to Mario and Mega Man can stay close to Samus when there's another strong Nintendo character in the poll, and with the new trailer MM will boost just like Snake did.

So the final will be Sephiroth VS Snake VS Mega Man, the rival trio (Seph VS Mega Man in 2002 and 2003, Mega Man VS Snake in 2003 and 2004, and that two horrible polls where Snake won over Seph but they don't count.)

Mega Man will win this poll because the Nintendrones now thinks him as a Nintendo character again while Seph and Snake shares the Playstation votes.

FIGHT MEGA MAN! FOR EVERLASTING PEACE!

Oh yeah and Charizard wins the whole contest if he somehow wins over the blue bomber.
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#223 | Safer_777 | Posted 7/6/2013 5:23:44 AM | message detail
I know it doesn't mean anything for actual strength,but it shows what people believe.Obviously they know Link is the strongest and the only one that has any change is Cloud since he is the only one above 20%.BUT what if it was a real poll,saying just vote for your character and had only N9 members?Would the results be the same?I would like to see that for a bonus poll.
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#224 | jacko_vdz | Posted 7/6/2013 5:35:50 AM | message detail | (edited)
There would certainly be a noticeable difference between the current poll's wording and a "Who is your favourite?" poll. For starters, Link and Cloud wouldn't be as dominant because a lot of people are voting on their predicted outcome of the contest (e.g. Link) as opposed to their favorite (i.e. Chrono/Sonic/etc).
#225 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/6/2013 7:00:08 AM | message detail
Link > Cloud > Mario > Snake > Samus > Sephiroth > Mega Man > Sonic > Crono
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#226 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/6/2013 7:01:08 AM | message detail
So, does this poll mean Cloud > Snake is the favorite?
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This is a fantasy based on reality.
~DChemist~
#227 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 7/6/2013 7:02:57 AM | message detail
Maybe, i think the casuals probably do not understand the SFF/LFF system that well. Otherwise, they wouldn't have voted for Mario.
#228 | spooky96 | Posted 7/6/2013 7:42:31 AM | message detail
I'm taking the gamble of Mario dragging down Link low enough for Cloud to win. Yes I have Cloud in the finals.
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#229 | spooky96 | Posted 7/6/2013 7:45:43 AM | message detail
So I just now was laughing at a series of a meme and I came up with...



Oh you don't have Link winning the Contest? I also like to live dangerously.

<_<
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#230 | Big Bob | Posted 7/6/2013 8:38:17 AM | message detail
Samus being low this year sounds right to me. People loathed Other M.
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Currently playing: The Last of Us
#231 | charmander6000 | Posted 7/6/2013 9:13:04 AM | message detail
Obviously has nothing to do with Link and Mario in the poll

>_>
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#232 | pjbasis | Posted 7/6/2013 9:40:36 AM | message detail
omg only a day and a half away from the first match
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#233 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/6/2013 9:43:00 AM | message detail
2 1/2 days away. We might have another contest related poll tomorrow, but I have no idea what it is. And Monday's poll will be something like "Have you entered your bracket for the Character Battle yet?".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#234 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/6/2013 9:53:32 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Obviously has nothing to do with Link and Mario in the poll

>_>


True, Mario is probably SFFing Samus and Sonic.

Also I somehow have a feeling that Mario would do a better job of resisting Link SFF than before, while Samus obviously won't.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#235 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/6/2013 11:52:06 AM | message detail
Oh yeah
Another contest,another time I wonder what is the name of the site that updates all the poll results live
#236 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/6/2013 3:08:37 PM | message detail
you're probably talking about this:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/63
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#237 | Nanis23 | Posted 7/6/2013 3:10:33 PM | message detail
Yes
Hm..such an obvious domain name lol
Also wow that match of Red&Blue vs Sephiroth Cloud why I don't remember this
#238 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 7/6/2013 3:14:49 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
I'm taking the gamble of Mario dragging down Link low enough for Cloud to win. Yes I have Cloud in the finals.


I'd love to actually see this happen more than anything. However, I just don't think anyone can drag Link down enough for this to happen. It doesn't matter if it's Cloud or Snake there.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#239 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 7/6/2013 6:15:24 PM | message detail
Okay, another match that's worth talking about: Master Chief vs Yuna vs Claire. No one's really drawing this into question, because Claire seems like the obvious third place finisher based on past performances (all of which involve her losing to a Square character--first Tidus, who is regularly outperformed by other characters from his own game--like Yuna--and then Kairi, who proceeded to lose the very next round to another FFX character, Rikku. Of course, if you look closely at the X-Stats, it turns out that Yuna has never outperformed Rikku when both make the contest. Counterintuitive, I know) and Master Chief and Yuna have met in fourways in the past--three times, actually, because they advanced 1-2 for two rounds before MC finally shook Yuna off.

But you know what? I'm not buying Master Chief winning the rematch. Yes, MC was a total beast in 2007. Plug Chief and Yuna into the X-Stat calculator using their most recent values, those of the 2010 Character Battle. The stats say Yuna wins with 58.37% of the vote, and this is pretty much unchanged whether you use adjusted or raw stats; I suspect the only reason there's any change at all is because of rounding errors. This is because both of them were in Mega Man's half-division--both Yuna and Master Chief lost to characters who then lost to Mega Man the very next round. Only I don't buy that for a moment, because Yuna's loss was against Zack Fair. FF7 vs. other FF never turns out well for the other FF, so taking Yuna's 41.39% in her loss at face value seems a bit off. So why is Master Chief still the favorite?

...okay, I stand corrected. I just looked at the most recent BOP results, and Yuna is a slight favorite. It looks like this has been a debatable match.
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#240 | methedemon | Posted 7/6/2013 6:44:24 PM | message detail
Yuna>>>MC and I am not worried at all.
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#241 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/6/2013 9:15:06 PM | message detail
And today's poll is related to the 27-seeds. Magikarp is easily dominating this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#242 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 7/6/2013 9:15:37 PM | message detail
Folks sure seem to like Magikarp. Too bad it loses even if it somehow gets 42% of the vote.
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#243 | Dr_Football | Posted 7/6/2013 9:16:48 PM | message detail
awww yeah pokefear
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#244 | pjbasis | Posted 7/6/2013 9:17:36 PM | message detail
look at that POKEFEAR
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#245 | spooky96 | Posted 7/6/2013 9:21:27 PM | message detail
LOL today's poll
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Currently obsessed with - Yearnings of Wind.
#246 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/6/2013 9:26:39 PM | message detail
I'm wondering if the expert challenge will screw some results. For example, in Link/Isaac/Tingle, Link will probably have fewer vote than normal due to the fact that people will vote for the character that they have in 2nd place in their expert challenge bracket.

We will have to take the X-stats of this contest less seriously that usual (plus that fact that lol 3 way)
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#247 | pyresword | Posted 7/6/2013 9:42:35 PM | message detail
Magikarp upset confirmed
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#248 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 7/6/2013 10:09:04 PM | message detail
Unlike yesterday's poll, I expect today's poll to be a more accurate predictor of each character's strength. I think once we see Dan Hibiki's match against Sonic in Division 2, we'll get an idea of how Magikarp stacks up to Sonic (and Mega Man, since he's slightly above Sonic).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#249 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 7/6/2013 10:10:39 PM | message detail
Magikarp is definitely going to get second that poll, too.
RIP Geno
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#250 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/6/2013 10:15:51 PM | message detail
I expected that match to be Mega Man > Magikarp > Geno before seeing this poll anyway.

Pokefreaks
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