Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1056

#51 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 11:58:27 AM | message detail | (edited)
nintendogirl1 posted...
No it doesn't.


LeonhartFour posted...
Ouya is going to bomb badly.


It's not going to challenge the big three, but I expect it will have a strong library of indie games. Indie developers will prevent it from being a flop. There's no way the Ouya ends up being worse than the N-Gage. Hell, the Ouya is actually available at places like GameStop and Best Buy while the N-Gage was never available at those places.
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#52 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/26/2013 11:58:41 AM | message detail
No, it won't.
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#53 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 12:00:09 PM | message detail
Are you actually suggesting the Ouya will be even worse than the N-Gage?
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#54 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/26/2013 12:04:44 PM | message detail
Took Phoenix > Marth and never looked back since then. Should it be a nailbiter, pretty sure B8'll rally him to victory.
#55 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/26/2013 12:07:41 PM | message detail
I'm suggesting that suggesting the Ouya will do anything other than suck is wrong.
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#56 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 12:18:38 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5223
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5224
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5225

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5251
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5252
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5253

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5264
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5265
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5266

Poll 5224 and 5252 both give you a 404 error page, so seems like Bacon has planned ahead in the event of a bonus match. Poll 5265 does not give you a 404 error page, though.
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#57 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 12:53:31 PM | message detail
I have a feeling we might get higher vote totals than usual because of the new poll results page for this contest. The new poll results page will allow you to vote in the match from the poll results page, making it much easier to rally in this contest. Because all you would have to do is link directly to the poll results page instead of linking to the front page and expecting people to search for the match.
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#58 | swirIdude | Posted 6/26/2013 2:14:45 PM | message detail
Pondos posted...
But Marth has a sword


So how far are you taking Shulk?
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#59 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 2:20:12 PM | message detail
I just realized the tiebreaker is asking for the total votes received by the winning character in the final match. Usually the tiebreaker asks you for the final vote totals in the final match. I guess if you expect the winner to get about 40% (which is pretty reasonable), the winner will end up getting somewhere between 20000 and 28000 votes if the final match gets between 50000 and 70000 votes.

When the entry form went up, I put in a guess around 54000 and didn't bother to read the question because I thought it would have been the same question we've had for the past several contests.
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#60 | Pondos | Posted 6/26/2013 2:24:26 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
Pondos posted...
But Marth has a sword


So how far are you taking Shulk?


Altair has lots of swords
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#61 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/26/2013 4:31:55 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have a feeling we might get higher vote totals than usual because of the new poll results page for this contest. The new poll results page will allow you to vote in the match from the poll results page, making it much easier to rally in this contest. Because all you would have to do is link directly to the poll results page instead of linking to the front page and expecting people to search for the match.


Also, this new feature might also help out vote totals:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/6-message-board-announcements/66574874

If Bacon plans on using that to display messages to unregistered users that a Character Battle is going on, it could boost vote totals even more.
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#62 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/26/2013 5:34:01 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I just realized the tiebreaker is asking for the total votes received by the winning character in the final match. Usually the tiebreaker asks you for the final vote totals in the final match. I guess if you expect the winner to get about 40% (which is pretty reasonable), the winner will end up getting somewhere between 20000 and 28000 votes if the final match gets between 50000 and 70000 votes.

When the entry form went up, I put in a guess around 54000 and didn't bother to read the question because I thought it would have been the same question we've had for the past several contests.


Whoa, thank you. Hadn't seen that.
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#63 | abdou | Posted 6/27/2013 5:28:20 PM | message detail
243 characters, 2 contests, $2000 in prizes. Make your picks for Character Battle IX today!
hide

Nice Bacon using the new feature to promote the contest
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#64 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/27/2013 6:40:06 PM | message detail
abdou posted...
Nice Bacon using the new feature to promote the contest


Too bad the message doesn't show up for unregistered users. It could be used to get them to register so they can enter the contest.
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#65 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/27/2013 9:01:02 PM | message detail
This is a weird poll. The first option has an insanely long poll option.
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#66 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/27/2013 9:09:07 PM | message detail
The entire poll itself is purposely ironic!

Also, don't quote yourself anymore. It looked like you were talking to yourself!
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#67 | pjbasis | Posted 6/27/2013 9:15:28 PM | message detail
I hope this does bring in the traffic.

More votals would be amazing.
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#68 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/27/2013 9:20:39 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
I hope this does bring in the traffic.

More votals would be amazing.


You mean the alert system that Bacon just introduced?

That could boost vote totals depending on how it's used. If a new alert message was displayed when a new match has started (with a direct link to vote in the match), it will boost vote totals. If the alert system was used to display a message to all unregistered users that a Character Battle is taking place, it will have a smaller boost in vote totals compared to displaying a new alert message at the start of every new match.
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#69 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/28/2013 3:20:08 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5265

In the page title it says "Character Battle IX: Runners-Up Battle". So it looks like the second place characters from the "Final Nine" matches will be placed into a bonus match. That means we are likely to get Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus if Snake advances to the final match. Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus will end up being a boring LFF match that will likely give Samus a free win here. If Cloud moves onto the final match, we will get Sephiroth/Snake/Samus instead. I'd rather have Sephiroth/Snake/Samus because you don't have to deal with LFF or SFF, plus all 3 characters are very close in strength.
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#70 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/28/2013 3:30:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
If it's Charizard/Samus/Mario, pretty sure Charizard would place second there. Pokemon taking advantage of that LFF to beat FF7 in a bonus poll again would be hilarious.
#71 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/28/2013 3:30:37 AM | message detail
I just remembered that I picked Snake over Cloud. Switched to Cloud briefly before changing back.

I'm kinda hoping that this site is anticipating MGSV just as much as I am!
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#72 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 6/28/2013 4:29:08 AM | message detail
Yes. Watching Charizard beat Cloud and Sephiroth would be awesome.
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#73 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/28/2013 5:02:29 AM | message detail
#74 | abdou | Posted 6/28/2013 6:14:06 AM | message detail
I have Lightning beating Charizard.
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#75 | Nanis23 | Posted 6/28/2013 9:17:43 AM | message detail
Yeah I know i'm late but Face MCshooty?
This contest is full of fodder characters but he takes the cake of being the fodderest of them all
(though he really put a smile on my face the first time,especially thanks to the "THANK YOU" scream)
#76 | superange128 | Posted 6/28/2013 9:19:45 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5265

In the page title it says "Character Battle IX: Runners-Up Battle". So it looks like the second place characters from the "Final Nine" matches will be placed into a bonus match. That means we are likely to get Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus if Snake advances to the final match. Sephiroth/Cloud/Samus will end up being a boring LFF match that will likely give Samus a free win here. If Cloud moves onto the final match, we will get Sephiroth/Snake/Samus instead. I'd rather have Sephiroth/Snake/Samus because you don't have to deal with LFF or SFF, plus all 3 characters are very close in strength.


"technically" Snake and Samus kinda have Brawl LFF. Any benefits Snake would get from being in Brawl would be heavily diluted thanks to Samus' prescence
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#77 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/28/2013 11:03:27 AM | message detail
I've updated the BOP (49 brackets)

Some interesting matches...

Round 1

Tharja – 29
Juliet Starling – 17
Tiny Tina – 3

Draven – 37
Jak – 7
Chie Satonaka – 5

Phoenix Wright – 31
Marth – 16
Nightmare – 2

Clementine – 26
Spyro the Dragon – 16
Reyn – 7

Ness – 33
Locke Cole – 14
CATS – 2

Wheatley – 33
Tommy Vercetti – 8
Crash Bandicoot – 8

Alucard – 35
Captain Falcon – 11
Rydia – 3

Bayonetta – 30
N – 19

Zack Fair – 34
Ryu Hayabusa – 11
Kefka – 4

Magus – 37
Hal “Otacon” Emmerich – 12

Booker DeWitt – 35
Gilgamesh – 14

Groose – 29
Yoshimitsu – 13
Lu Bu – 7

Lee Everett – 29
Mr. Game & Watch – 17
Meat Boy – 3

Nathan Drake – 27
Pac-Man – 18
Steve – 4

Fox McCloud – 26
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 23

Catherine – 21
Neku Sakuraba – 17
Vaas Montenegro – 11

Yuna – 27
Master Chief – 22

Wario – 27
Creeper – 22

Pit – 29
Cecil Harvey – 12
Urdnot Wrex – 8

? Block – 30
Rikku – 18
Lyndis – 1

Round 2

Commander Shepard – 28
Aerith Gainsborough – 21

Mega Man X – 37
Ryu – 9
Jigglypuff – 1
Draven – 1
Chie Satonaka – 1

Big Boss – 25
Luigi – 24

GlaDOS – 22
Epona – 15
Ike – 11
Dr. Robotnik – 1

Zack Fair – 27
Ryu Hayabusa – 10
Altair – 5
Lara Croft – 3
Slime – 2
Shulk – 1
Kefka – 1

Dante – 28
Squirtle – 21

Pikachu – 38
Crono – 11

Fox McCloud – 21
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 19
Nathan Drake – 6
Steve – 2
Pac-Man – 1

Auron – 38
L-Block – 7
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 4

Tifa Lockheart – 34
Dragonborn – 9
Master Chief – 5
Yuna – 1

Pokemon Trainer Red – 35
Creeper – 7
Cecil Harvey – 5
Urdnot Wrex – 1
Pit – 1

Charizard – 36
Zelda – 10
Lightning – 3

Round 3

Sonic the Hedgehog – 26
Vincent Valentine – 22
Bowser – 1

Sora – 29
Pikachu – 10
Crono – 9
Steve – 1

Charizard – 32
Mega Man – 14
Lightning – 2
Zelda – 1

Round 4

Solid Snake – 35
Cloud Strife – 14

Mario – 38
Charizard – 6
Mega Man – 2
Samus Aran – 1
Squall Leonhart – 1
L-Block – 1

Round 5

Link – 38
Solid Snake – 10
Cloud Strife – 1
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#78 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/28/2013 12:00:14 PM | message detail
Say Snake is announced to not be in the new Smash Bros. Would he lose strength?
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#79 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/28/2013 12:41:46 PM | message detail
Polls for the next several days:

6/29/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
6/30/2013 - Which scheduled Summer release are you most looking forward to?
7/1/2013 - Got 3DS?
7/2/2013 - Got Vita?
7/3/2013 - Got PlayStation 3?
7/4/2013 - Got Xbox 360?
7/5/2013 - Got Wii U?

As expected, I knew we were going to get some "Got Console?" polls before the start of this contest. We usually get "Got Console?" polls around this time of the year. I suppose if Bacon had started running the "Got Console?" polls a few days earlier, we could have gotten polls for "Gaming-quality PC", "Smartphone", and "Tablet".
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#80 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/28/2013 12:47:46 PM | message detail
Say Snake is announced to not be in the new Smash Bros. Would he lose strength?

Probably not initially, but he does lose an outlet to gain new fans.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#81 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/28/2013 2:25:07 PM | message detail
We can also expect a Phoenix boost.

Marth still lost to Donkey Kong, and I honestly doubt he's anywhere higher than DK's estimated value, which I think Phoenix can top on a night match since 37% on Zelda is roughly around that area before Marvel vs. Capcom 3.
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#82 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/28/2013 9:09:38 PM | message detail
Vote totals have been slumping lately. We were getting boosted vote totals for nearly 2 weeks after E3 ended, but now we've had 3 straight days of under 40000 votes, with today's poll on track for less than 40000 votes. Seems like vote totals have returned to their normal levels after E3 increased traffic to GameFAQs.
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#83 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/28/2013 9:18:47 PM | message detail
Lots taking Squirtle over Dante? Good, because I need brackets to miss easy matches!

Also, I'm surprised that not one person in the BOP took Proto Man over Ike. I'm not saying I think he'll win, but... I don't see how a narrow win over Zidane makes it such a lock. Of course, somebody will now probably tell me Ike has a new game.
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#84 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/28/2013 11:03:11 PM | message detail
One person there did take Protoman > Ike. Just one person at the moment, though!
(And three people took Robotnik. I don't know either.)

Ike did about the same on Mario as Proto Man did on Snake, but Ike/Mario probably had SFF so it's hard to put much faith in Proto Man pulling it off.

And a new Fire Emblem indeed came out in the west a few months ago and is fairly popular- currently the #11 game on the site (http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/topgames/). Ike is only marginally in it AFAIK, but he is in it. We've also started to get new Smash character announcements.

Meanwhile, the Zidane that Ike faced was likely Dissidia-boosted. Given what Dissidia did for the SNES FF characters, Zidane's pre-Dissidia contest history is arguably completely irrelevant to his current strength.
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#85 | superange128 | Posted 6/28/2013 11:12:03 PM | message detail
Ike is an optional spotpass character in Awakening. After you get him he doesn't talk though

He's also has DLC character version in Awakening and his artwork for that is ****
http://operationrainfall.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Screen-shot-2012-07-19-at-13.12.19.png

If anyone wants to pic sabotage Ike go ahead and use that
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#86 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/29/2013 12:10:33 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
"technically" Snake and Samus kinda have Brawl LFF. Any benefits Snake would get from being in Brawl would be heavily diluted thanks to Samus' prescence


We have yet to encounter a match where Snake was hurt by Nintendo LFF or SFF because of his appearance in Brawl.


Not_Wylvane posted...
Say Snake is announced to not be in the new Smash Bros. Would he lose strength?


I doubt it. At least 95% of his strength is from the Metal Gear fanbase.
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#87 | Magic8Squall | Posted 6/29/2013 12:18:20 AM | message detail
Also, I'm surprised that not one person in the BOP took Proto Man over Ike. I'm not saying I think he'll win, but... I don't see how a narrow win over Zidane makes it such a lock. Of course, somebody will now probably tell me Ike has a new game.

Well, Protoman is hardly a bastion of strength, and Zidane was better post-Dissidia, I think. That close win over Zidane isn't as bad as it would've looked several years before.
#88 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/29/2013 12:22:50 AM | message detail
Looking at Ike's past matches.. he's been equal to Duke Nukem during pre-Brawl hype, shown to be pretty close to Pikachu in fourways the following year, and managed 26% on Mario one-on-one.

It's hard to peg Ike anywhere, but he's probably a decent bit above Proto Man enough for me to take him.
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#89 | Magic8Squall | Posted 6/29/2013 12:24:33 AM | message detail
Duke Nukem is a character who's been ridiculously difficult to peg himself, so I wouldn't really base Ike off of him. Gordon's been a bit more consistent, and he came close to beating him as well.
#90 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/29/2013 6:06:21 AM | message detail
He doesn't seem all that hard to me. Low mid-card status. Altair/Marth/Gordon Freeman are around the same area.
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"i am pretty sure 3-year old children would generate more thoughtful discussion than board 8 on any topic of sexism" - Naye745
#91 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/29/2013 7:28:37 AM | message detail
I decided to take the Persona 4 characters and John Marston to get to Round 2.
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#92 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/29/2013 7:38:26 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I decided to take the Persona 4 characters and John Marston to get to Round 2.


John Marston is cool but don't think he will beat Zelda, better not go for something so risky.
#93 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/29/2013 7:55:58 AM | message detail
Yeah I quickly decided against that.
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#94 | superange128 | Posted 6/29/2013 8:01:49 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
superange128 posted...
"technically" Snake and Samus kinda have Brawl LFF. Any benefits Snake would get from being in Brawl would be heavily diluted thanks to Samus' prescence


We have yet to encounter a match where Snake was hurt by Nintendo LFF or SFF because of his appearance in Brawl.



Samus vs Snake 2006?
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#95 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/29/2013 9:57:49 AM | message detail
Or maybe Samus was simply stronger than Snake at the time. I mean, that match was before Brawl and MGS4 even came out, and four years later Snake only did a tiny better on Cloud than Samus did the previous round, and that was off his big upset on Sephiroth.

That said, I'd love to see a Snake/Samus rematch, and if that works out that the three-way bonus match has them and Sephiroth, that'd be a great one to watch.
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#96 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/29/2013 10:50:50 AM | message detail
Samus/Snake isn't definitive proof of anything. I mean, we were sort of surprised by the result because Snake had put up 55% on Mega Man and Sonic while Samus had struggled to beat Tifa and get 55% on Zelda herself, but I think Samus was just stronger that year.
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#97 | MajinZidane | Posted 6/29/2013 11:04:36 AM | message detail
N-GAGE WAS A PHENOMENAL DEVICE FOR ITS TIME
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#98 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/29/2013 11:30:20 AM | message detail
Sonic got 42.49% on Samus in 2004 and 45.01% on Snake in 2006. Assume the 53.11% Samus posted on Snake is legit and Sonic is projected to get 42.21% on Samus in 2006.

In retrospect Samus's matches with Zelda and Tifa look a lot like the voters punishing an obvious winner in a very lame bracket but then behaved normally once real competition showed up.
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#99 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/29/2013 11:35:17 AM | message detail
If you assume that though then you say either Samus was stronger than Mario in 2005 or Samus had a big drop in 2005 despite the Nintendo boost and then recovered completely in 2006 because ...?
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#100 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/29/2013 12:51:38 PM | message detail
Or you could say Mario became stronger than his 2004 self and Samus stayed constant.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939