Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1056

#1 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/21/2013 6:34:35 AM | message detail
BRACKET CHALLENGE - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_entry

EXPERT CHALLENGE - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_expert

List of characters for each seed - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_battlers

Battle Calendar - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_calendar

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#2 | abdou | Posted 6/21/2013 7:07:05 AM | message detail
Snake>Link
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#3 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/21/2013 7:08:13 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
Snake>Link
#4 | spooky96 | Posted 6/21/2013 9:15:50 AM | message detail
Cloud>Snake
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Who among you will care for the illustrious honor of taking down the Fuhrer of Amestris?
#5 | Pondos | Posted 6/21/2013 10:12:18 AM | message detail
Missingo > Mario
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#6 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/21/2013 12:18:26 PM | message detail
Squall > Missingno
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#7 | swirIdude | Posted 6/21/2013 12:23:57 PM | message detail
Chester > Spring Breeze Dancin'
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#8 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 6/21/2013 12:44:33 PM | message detail
Crono > Pikachu
#9 | swirIdude | Posted 6/21/2013 9:29:08 PM | message detail
High playrate, however, is generally meaningless in terms of character contests.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#10 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/21/2013 9:33:45 PM | message detail
High playrate means that more people are familiar with the character, but it doesn't have any effect on their strength.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#11 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/21/2013 9:49:38 PM | message detail
It doesn't give you a possible ceiling though.
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#12 | superange128 | Posted 6/21/2013 11:42:28 PM | message detail
Somewhat relevant "Have you played ____" polls worth comparing

Xenogears
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4992

Disgaea
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4980

Mass Effect Trilogy
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4909

Pokemon Black 2
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4865

Kirby series
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4703

Symphony of the Night
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4664

League of Legends
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4779
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#13 | spooky96 | Posted 6/21/2013 11:53:07 PM | message detail
LOL @ LoL. Only a quarter of the site plays it >_>
#14 | superange128 | Posted 6/21/2013 11:58:22 PM | message detail
Over 50% have at least tried Minecraft, 40% have bought it at least once
Over 50% have at least tried Symphony of the Night

Around 26% have played League of Legends

Over 77% have played at least 1 Kirby game but that's not surprising

Over 40% have at least expressed interested in POkemon BW2, Only 13% actually bought it on release

Over 55% own at least one Mass Effect. Due to thw ording only 39% have at least played one game but I assume most people who own 1-3 games have at least played 1 game.

As said, Disgaea has about a 30% playrate

Xenogears also got about a 30% playrate
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#15 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/22/2013 1:02:27 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/-1
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/-2
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/-3
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/-4

Well, out of the 4 negative numbered polls, 3 of them have been fixed. Poll -1 still redirects back to the full poll list.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#16 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/22/2013 1:27:37 AM | message detail
Feeling pretty good about Minecraft characters doing bad now. It's a well-known name so sure people have tried it, but it doesn't really Mean they liked it and still plays it. Besides, it's not a game where I'd expect the characters to look good.
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*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#17 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/22/2013 2:55:41 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Well, out of the 4 negative numbered polls, 3 of them have been fixed. Poll -1 still redirects back to the full poll list.


Update: It turns out that Poll -1 will only redirect to the full poll list if you are using Throwback. Poll -1 works just fine for those who aren't using Throwback.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#18 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/22/2013 3:25:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
ctesjbuvf posted...
Feeling pretty good about Minecraft characters doing bad now. It's a well-known name so sure people have tried it, but it doesn't really Mean they liked it and still plays it. Besides, it's not a game where I'd expect the characters to look good.


I'm really interested in the day trends, especially given the Nintendo competition Creeper will see in Round 1 and possibly 2.
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The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#19 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/22/2013 9:17:20 PM | message detail
Minecraft ended up with a 37.05% playrate in yesterday's poll.

I also got a response from creativename regarding the new poll URL format, so he is aware of the issue.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#20 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/23/2013 4:39:41 PM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
LOL @ LoL. Only a quarter of the site plays it >_>


But amusingly, the LoL board has either THE or one of the highest board traffics for games. There's a really funky disparity going on there.
#21 | abdou | Posted 6/23/2013 6:02:22 PM | message detail
isn't this because people are always playing it? unlike other games you don't "beat" the likes of LoL and WoW so there is constantly a huge amount of users playing it and having discussions on the board. Games like Final Fantasy and Zelda may have much higher playrate but people eventually beat those games and move on to something else
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#22 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/23/2013 10:31:13 PM | message detail
What a weird poll.

Gah I'm switching to Wheatly to win its 3 pack. I wish I had a better consensus of what the site overall feels about Portal 2 stuff. I've never played any Portal games, so I can't even make a call based on what I like. But it's Crash Bandicoot and a long washed up GTA character.
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#23 | pjbasis | Posted 6/24/2013 10:27:18 AM | message detail
Wheatley has a lot of room to be really weak and still win that so i wouldn't think about it too much
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#24 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/24/2013 11:29:53 AM | message detail
Message From GameFAQs on 06/24/2013
It will go up today - as soon as we've finalized the first round image format, it'll go up on B8 as usual.

Looks like we're going to be making first round pics after all!
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~Zen
#25 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/24/2013 1:04:19 PM | message detail
He doesn't have THAT much room. Crash has always been higher end fodder.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#26 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/24/2013 1:25:50 PM | message detail
Just looked uo Aeris/Aerith's most recent couple of matches from 2010, and both times she was struggling with SFF - Auron took her out in R1 and in the vote-ins she took first with Cid Highwind in the same poll who took second. In 2007, in both of her 4-way matches she placed 2nd behind Squall. The last time we saw her in competition not involved with another FF character was in 2006 in the female portion of the bracket.

I had completely forgotten all of this, so we've never seen "reliable" data on her in a looooong time. I'm taking her to beat Shepard in R2!
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/24/2013 1:31:45 PM | message detail
There wasn't much space for Aerith to suffer that much SFF. It's not like they destroyed her or anything.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#28 | methedemon | Posted 6/24/2013 1:44:10 PM | message detail
Aerith>Shepard is an easy pick
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Demon Fang ...Demon Fang .. Damn I must be a genius, DOUBLE Demon Fang!
#29 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/24/2013 1:44:24 PM | message detail
The fact that she struggled against Cid Highwind kinda suggests that she's around midcard range, the same Cid that went on to score only 37% against Megaman in a night match.
#30 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/24/2013 1:48:26 PM | message detail
I had Aeris > Shepard briefly, but it just didn't feel right.
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#31 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/24/2013 2:12:23 PM | message detail
Shepard beats Aeris.
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#32 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 3:05:43 PM | message detail
Bacon has just reserved every single Poll ID from 5130 to 5266 for future use. Notice the different error messages for these 2 pages:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/map?id=5266
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/map?id=5267

Because the first contest match will be Poll 5143 and Bacon reserved every Poll ID up to 5266, this suggests the final match will be Poll 5266. There are a total of 124 polls from Poll 5143 to 5266. But with only 121 contest matches officially part of the contest, it seems like the 3 bonus matches will not be assigned a Poll ID after 5266. I'd expect the first bonus match to have a Poll ID between the final match of round 1 and the first match of round 2. Sounds like the final match of round 1 will be Poll 5223, then the first bonus match is Poll 5224 (instead of 5267), and the first match of round 2 is Poll 5225.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#33 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 3:30:45 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2333

XD at that poll. According to that page, it seems like we are getting the same poll every single day from 6/26/2013 to 7/8/2013.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#34 | Pondos | Posted 6/24/2013 3:51:06 PM | message detail
CATS victory confirmed
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Woop woop woop woop woop
#35 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 7:48:24 PM | message detail
Tomorrow will be very interesting because the Ouya is released on that day, so we might get a "Got Ouya?" board. Although maybe it won't happen.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#36 | abdou | Posted 6/24/2013 8:11:12 PM | message detail
#37 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 8:23:45 PM | message detail
I feel like we'll get a "Got Ouya?" poll someday, even if it doesn't happen tomorrow. Bacon probably won't give us that poll unless he has solid proof that it is available in stores, such as GameStop and other retail places.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#38 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 9:00:18 PM | message detail
Nope, no "Got Ouya?" poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#39 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/24/2013 10:42:04 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Tomorrow will be very interesting because the Ouya is released on that day, so we might get a "Got Ouya?" board. Although maybe it won't happen.


Heh, I made a mistake in that post by using "board" instead of "poll" by accident.


Anyways, excellent vote totals on yesterday's poll. 4th poll to get above 50000 votes this year and the third highest vote total so far this year.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#40 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/25/2013 10:26:55 AM | message detail
What the hell is Ouya
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#41 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/25/2013 5:26:55 PM | message detail
Earlier in this topic, I made a post how about how we were going to get the same poll every single day from 6/26/2013 to 7/8/2013. Now, it turns out that SBAllen changed the poll question for tomorrow's poll because the "6/26/13" link disappeared from this page:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2333


ffmasterjose posted...
What the hell is Ouya


http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/ouya/ouya-a-new-kind-of-video-game-console

Man, you are totally behind on the times.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#42 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/25/2013 9:03:23 PM | message detail
Still no "Got Ouya?" poll yet. Back when CJayC ran the site, we used to have "Got N-Gage?" polls and the N-Gage is even more of a joke than the Ouya. N-Gage was a flop from the very beginning, while the Ouya has some potential for success.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#43 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/26/2013 11:27:36 AM | message detail
I think I'm switching from Marth to Phoenix; it might actually be the only debatable R1 match where I'm not taking the Nintendo character. Phoenix has just been too clutch since 2007, and the night time frame makes such a difference. Smash Day vs Smash Night is probably something crazy like a 54/46, and Phoenix has a strong enough early vote to neutralize any Power Hour start for Marth. Too many intangibles in Wrighto's favor, PLUS Marth always gets stupid Fire Emblem art when he should be getting Smash pictures.
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#44 | nintendogirl1 | Posted 6/26/2013 11:29:56 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Still no "Got Ouya?" poll yet. Back when CJayC ran the site, we used to have "Got N-Gage?" polls and the N-Gage is even more of a joke than the Ouya. N-Gage was a flop from the very beginning, while the Ouya has some potential for success.


No it doesn't.
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*shrug*
#45 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/26/2013 11:33:05 AM | message detail
Ouya is completely open and free for customers to make their own games, isn't it? While I know nothing about the system's specs or the company's business model, I trust the fan community to come up with some fun stuff. It should end up a much better machine than the N-Gage, anyway.
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http://i.imgur.com/IjkDZMA.jpg
#46 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/26/2013 11:37:31 AM | message detail
Phoenix has just been too clutch since 2007

Besides that one much he's never been clutch and has been on the wrong side of close-ish matches
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#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/26/2013 11:37:45 AM | message detail
Ouya is going to bomb badly.
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#48 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/26/2013 11:38:48 AM | message detail
Phoenix has only been in one close match, really, and he won it. I guess you could count the Jecht match but nobody really expected him to win that.

But a 12-hour night match against a day oriented character who is probably on his level is right up his alley.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#49 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/26/2013 11:43:30 AM | message detail
Jecht ended up performing quite well against Zelda, so Phoenix ended up looking okay in 2010 despite the R1 loss (I believe most had Jecht winning, and it was a close match anyway). I think Phoenix/Marth is close to a 50/50. While it's not wrong to back Nintendo in a coin flip match, it's also not wrong to bank a loved character who has been growing, has the night advantage, and could get rallied if things get that close. Honestly, it's the night time poll and the fact that Marth never gets Smash pictures which pushed me to change.
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#50 | Pondos | Posted 6/26/2013 11:44:47 AM | message detail
But Marth has a sword
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Woop woop woop woop woop