Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1055

#251 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/17/2013 1:10:01 AM | message detail
At this point, I may consider GlaDOS over Gordon. He got a nice boost when The Orange Box hit consoles, but that was six years ago. Absolutely nothing since then. Leon continues to get Resident Evil exposure, and RE4 has cemented itself as a bona fide classic, which should keep him popular for years to come. Plus, in 2010, he got this

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/cb8/thumb_cb8-108.jpg

and still kept the loss respectable. With a fair picture, he may have actually been close to Ryu, which is well above anything I'd expect of Gordon.
#252 | spooky96 | Posted 6/17/2013 1:10:34 AM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
so... anyone else even considering Gordon over Leon? i haven't seen one mention of it despite Gordon's higher stat value in 2010.


At least not me.
#253 | Xuxon | Posted 6/17/2013 1:12:21 AM | message detail
i forgot about that pic. guess that match can go back to "not thinking about it" status.
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#254 | Xuxon | Posted 6/17/2013 1:18:52 AM | message detail
speaking of GLaDOS, is she a big favorite in round 2? i picked her at first, but then saw Ike's stat value is a decent amount higher. of course with the Portal 2 boost it would depend on Mordin beating Epona which itself is probably a rather unpopular pick.
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#255 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/17/2013 1:25:50 AM | message detail
I think GlaDOS is a fine pick. Epona is a big favorite over Mordin and will very likely be sharing the spotlight with Ike. I don't expect a popular Smasher like Ike (lol like Ike) to simply crumble in the presence of Link's horse, so the Ninty split may give GlaDOS all she needs. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Epona comes in third there, though I currently have her winning.
#256 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/17/2013 1:28:04 AM | message detail
Man, I have so little faith in Gordon, I actually had Simon Belmont in my test bracket the entire time. And GLaDOS definitely beats Gordon.

Hell, I'd pick Portal 2 over Half-Life 2 in a games contest.
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#257 | pjbasis | Posted 6/17/2013 1:35:43 AM | message detail
I definitely would not pick Portal 2 over Half-Life 2.
Portal is probably the stronger entry and I don't think it would beat HL2
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#258 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/17/2013 1:38:35 AM | message detail
I doubt ME3 can have hurt Shepard more than it helped him. I also doubt the anti-voters are that influencing. Especially when it's not 1v1. I'm not even sure it can be seen.
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#259 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/17/2013 1:40:24 AM | message detail
Well, the third entrant in Shepard/Aeris will be so weak that it'll be about as close to a 1v1 as we're gonna get, though Shepard should get aided slightly since it will be another female character. Probably not enough to make up for Aeris's night match advantage though.
#260 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/17/2013 1:51:39 AM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Well, the third entrant in Shepard/Aeris will be so weak that it'll be about as close to a 1v1 as we're gonna get, though Shepard should get aided slightly since it will be another female character. Probably not enough to make up for Aeris's night match advantage though.


I'm hoping for a FemShep picture so we can have an girl fight.
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#261 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/17/2013 2:05:59 AM | message detail
I am hinging on a decent FF7 decline this contest and even then i know for sure Aeris would give Shepard a tough fight. Not sure why some of the Shepard pickers are acting so snobbish about it.
#262 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 3:56:18 AM | message detail
SonicRaptor posted...
against Squirtle/Ridley (yeah, taking risks with Pokemon because historically they always broke my bracket)


Uh, most of us have Squirtle in that match, and Ridley is not a Pokemon!
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#263 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 3:57:38 AM | message detail
ZenOfThunder posted...
I will not make a DmC pic

i cannot promise nobody else will

just don't complain about the possibility and give people ideas


According to Ulti, pic makers will be so angry with Capcom that they will screw over Dante with DmC pics.

I don't know if he was joking or not, but considering that he's seriously taking the upset...
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#264 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/17/2013 4:00:41 AM | message detail
Doesn't seem to me like most people have Squirtle. Is there a tally somewhere?

No one said Ridley was a Pokemon. He just meant there could be some Nintendo vote splitting. Oh wait, LMS, never mind.
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#265 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 4:00:50 AM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
nothing since God of War II has gotten tremendous word-of-mouth as an outstanding, must-own gaming experience.


Huh? I thought God of War III was considered to be the best in the series.
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#266 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 4:02:06 AM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
If Mega Man and X are now considered different characters (which they should have been all along, but whatever), shouldn't Dante and DINO/Donte be considered different characters as well? The contest describes classic Dante. Using a DmC pick would not only be unfair but inaccurate.


Yeah, I think Dante and "Donte" are supposed to be different characters. Even the Devil May Cry Wiki has separate entries on both characters.
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#267 | spooky96 | Posted 6/17/2013 4:03:29 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
GloriousSweater posted...
nothing since God of War II has gotten tremendous word-of-mouth as an outstanding, must-own gaming experience.


Huh? I thought God of War III was considered to be the best in the series.


And I thought the original was considered the best ;_;

Now only a fourth person can end this. Alright next poster, which is the best God of War game?
#268 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/17/2013 4:03:31 AM | message detail
So Shepard has the victory over Aeris?And Squirtle beating Dante?What?
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#269 | XIII_socks | Posted 6/17/2013 4:05:29 AM | message detail
God of War 2 is the best. 3 is pretty close but it's too brief and has story shortcomings.
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#270 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 4:06:42 AM | message detail
WarThaNemesis2 posted...
Shepard being hurt by ME3's reception is certainly possible.

I mean, people who haven't played an Mass Effect game and all they know if Mass Effect 3 'sucked' and that Shepard is that Mass Effect guy might vote for whatever else.


The Mass Effect 3 situation strikes me more as something like a Brawl or MGS4 where a vocal minority claims the game sucks, than even something on the level of a Resident Evil 5 or Final Fantasy XIII, let alone a Metroid: Other M or Resident Evil 6.

My god, what the heck happened to Resident Evil? Hey let's talk about that: do you guys think the RE characters will perform like crap compared to usual due to RE6?

Too bad Samus isn't in a position where any high midcarders could challenge her. Actually hold on a sec...

I'm taking Auron > Samus in my bracket!
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#271 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 4:08:54 AM | message detail
XIII_socks posted...
God of War 2 is the best. 3 is pretty close but it's too brief and has story shortcomings.


I'm just saying what I thought the consensus was. Haven't played any of the games myself, what a surprise.
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#272 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/17/2013 4:10:34 AM | message detail
ctesjbuvf posted...
Doesn't seem to me like most people have Squirtle. Is there a tally somewhere?


1st draft of the BOP has Dante over Squirtle 12-7.
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#273 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 6/17/2013 4:32:24 AM | message detail
I own orginal GoW, but I haven't played it yet.

Need to get round to that.
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#274 | pjbasis | Posted 6/17/2013 4:34:10 AM | message detail
Not being able to restart with all your abilities killed GoW1 for me.

I guess it was my fault for expecting it after DMC.
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#275 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 6/17/2013 5:55:03 AM | message detail
Ridley v Zidane should be fairly close I think. Zidane got 22% on Link in 2008 while Ridley (assisted by anti-votes in the 12 hour format) got 28% on Cloud in 2010. Zidane/Ridley will be a day match which hurts Zidane, though not as much as against Ike in 2010. Zidane has narrowly lost to Ike, beaten Shadow and struggled to get much over 60% on Claptrap. In the 2010 vote-ins Ridley was clearly weaker than Jecht and Sub-Zero, but comparable with Spy and Proto Man, and easily ahead of Kain Highwind. I think Zidane is a reasonable favourite, but I think I'll take Ridley.
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#276 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 5:57:26 AM | message detail
Ridley beating Zidane would be rather weird, considering that Final Fantasy IX could possibly beat any Metroid game in a contest setting.
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#277 | pjbasis | Posted 6/17/2013 6:00:27 AM | message detail
Metroid Prime could beat FFIX
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#278 | spooky96 | Posted 6/17/2013 6:08:04 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Ridley beating Zidane would be rather weird, considering that Final Fantasy IX could possibly beat any Metroid game in a contest setting.


lol No. 9 certainly can't beat Metroid Prime.
#279 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/17/2013 6:09:15 AM | message detail
SFF aside, I doubt Ridley could get 48 on Ike. I also doubt that Ridley would be able to slide past Shadow in 4-ways, again SFF aside as Link was there. Ridley would obviously lose much worse, but even if there was no SFF involved, I don't think he would be capable of such. I'm picking Zidane and I feel pretty good about it.
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#280 | Glenn_and_Toad | Posted 6/17/2013 7:12:17 AM | message detail
Imagine one of your favorite characters got a horrible reboot, and that a new-school picture was being used in a match. Would that be enough to make you abandon ship and vote for the other entrant? No, hardcore fans never betray their favorites in a contest setting (if they did, we'd see less impact from LFF, as voters of a weaker third entrant would flock to other entrants in an effort not to waste their votes). I might end up with Squirtle over Dante, but solely on the strength of POKEFEAR, not because Dante's weak. Also, the idea that Dante is a choke artist who does worse in close matchups is a tad ridiculous. It might be argued that he has less rallying power in close matches, but HockeyFAQs seems to indicate otherwise.

I think the theories that ME3 will hurt Shepard are mostly bunk. Voters might take their anger out on the game or series, but I bet a lot of voters will say "the ending sucked, but Shep was great the whole time" and stay true to Shep, especially against a character as different as Aeris. If bad games really did hurt characters, Samus would have tanked after Other M and Sonic would be way worse off than he is now (wow, it feels really funny typing that phrase).The argument that Shep was boosted by buzz last contest and will fall off this time is stronger, though I would argue that a. Pokemon had buzz at that time too and b. the release of a new game/price reductions/availability on other systems will more than offset that.

That said, I'm taking Aeris. She was basically even with Zelda during the night vote during 06, losing badly during the power hour and morning. Shepard's match with Pikachu was effectively flat, with Pikachu gaining slightly in the afternoon and Shepard gaining slightly during the SNV. I tried analyzing the Shepard/Ellis match for trends before realizing how ridiculous that was and giving up (plus it was flat anyway). Aeris got 42% on Auron in a SFF match, and she'll have the night advantage here. It's gonna be really close, but I'm not betting on a huge FFVII decline, so I went with Aeris.
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#281 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/17/2013 9:14:15 AM | message detail
I've updated the BOP, here are the results of some debated and other interesting matches.

Round 1

Tharja – 19
Juliet Starling – 9
Tiny Tina – 3

Draven – 23
Jak – 6
Chie Satonaka – 2

Phoenix Wright – 20
Marth – 10
Nightmare – 1

Clementine – 20
Spyro the Dragon – 6
Reyn – 5

Ness – 22
Locke Cole – 8
CATS – 1

Wheatley – 20
Crash Bandicoot – 6
Tommy Vercetti – 5

Bayonetta – 19
N – 12

Zack Fair – 22
Ryu Hayabusa – 8
Kefka – 1

Booker DeWitt – 21
Gilgamesh – 10

Groose – 15
Yoshimitsu – 10
Lu Bu – 6

Lee Everett – 20
Mr. Game & Watch – 8
Meat Boy – 3

Nathan Drake – 17
Pac-Man – 13
Steve – 1

Fox McCloud – 16
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 15

Catherine – 12
Neku Sakuraba – 10
Vaas Montenegro – 9

Yuna – 17
Master Chief – 14

Wario – 18
Creeper – 13

Pit – 18
Cecil Harvey – 7
Urdnot Wrex – 6

? Block – 18
Rikku – 13

Round 2

Commander Shepard – 18
Aerith Gainsborough – 13

Mega Man X – 24
Ryu – 6
Jigglypuff – 1

Luigi – 16
Big Boss – 15

GlaDOS – 16
Ike – 8
Epona – 7

Zack Fair – 18
Ryu Hayabusa – 8
Lara Croft – 3
Slime – 1
Altair – 1

Dante – 17
Squirtle – 14

Pikachu – 26
Crono – 5

Fox McCloud – 14
Pokemon Trainer Blue – 12
Nathan Drake – 4
Pac-Man – 1

Tifa Lockheart – 21
Dragonborn – 7
Master Chief – 3

Pokemon Trainer Red – 22
Creeper – 4
Cecil Harvey – 4
Urdnot Wrex – 1

Charizard – 23
Zelda – 6
Lightning – 2

Round 3

Vincent Valentine – 18
Sonic the Hedgehog – 13

Sora – 20
Pikachu – 6
Crono – 5

Charizard – 22
Mega Man – 7
Lightning – 1
Zelda – 1

Round 4

Solid Snake – 22
Cloud Strife – 9

Round 5

Link – 24
Solid Snake – 6
Cloud Strife – 1
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#282 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/17/2013 9:51:01 AM | message detail
Okay why so many FF 7 characters winning?I don't believe they still have so much strength.
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#283 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 6/17/2013 9:51:29 AM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol posted...
The Owner of FF9 posted...
If Mega Man and X are now considered different characters (which they should have been all along, but whatever), shouldn't Dante and DINO/Donte be considered different characters as well? The contest describes classic Dante. Using a DmC pick would not only be unfair but inaccurate.


Already talked about this a while ago. Both Megaman and MMX take place in the same universe, MMX takes place in the future and it was speculated that MMX's an entirely different robot.

As for Dante/Donte, Lara Croft/Rebooted Lara Croft, don't know why but somehow Bacon does see alternate/rebooted version as the same entity.


Well, I suppose that makes sense for the purpose of the context. They are still different characters, just as Captain America and Ultimate Captain America, despite all their similarities, are completely different characters.

I've never been into Tomb Raider; how much is the new Lara different from the old?
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#284 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/17/2013 10:01:40 AM | message detail
Okay why so many FF 7 characters winning?I don't believe they still have so much strength.

I'd say the board's opinion on the game is quite low, Shepard is the favourite over Aerith, people have Tifa losing to Dragonborn or Master Chief and Solid Snake is dominating Cloud in the semifinal.

Even with a drop they are still quite formidable and with the site getting older (or at least the PotD voters) we are still essentially working with similar people as before.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#285 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/17/2013 10:16:19 AM | message detail | (edited)
Looking at the tally, no one has Otacon > Magus? Seems pretty weird to me.

(Edited) Just clicked on your site and realized that 4 people have picked Otacon. Was hoping that more people would have more faith in Otacon.
#286 | abdou | Posted 6/17/2013 10:05:06 AM | message detail
why do people think FFVII will do so bad? Cloud didn't do worse against Link in 2010 than he did in 2006. FFVII is only getting weaker true but we don't have any proof that it declined significantly since 2010. I am especially confident in the likes of Vincent, Zack , Tifa and Aerith who don't get hate/anti-votes like Cloud and Sephiroth.
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#287 | spooky96 | Posted 6/17/2013 10:35:33 AM | message detail
Cloud is going to really ruin every/most B8ers bracket. There's no way Cloud is going t o lose to Snake. Hell, even if you throw in Sora, Cloud will still most likely win. Would feel pretty good when everyone will be thinking "Oh gawd why did I put so much faith in Ekans...Cloud is beating him as usual..."
#288 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/17/2013 11:29:55 AM | message detail
There have passed 3 years since that contest.Yeah Cloud did amazing and Sephiroth barely lost against Snake but come on now,does anyone really believes that Cloud can win against Snake 1vs1 now?Especially if Sora is there?Not a chance.Any my favorite guy in video games is Sephiroth.Okay I know that people getting older but the new people that come here who they will vote for?No some characters from a 16 year old game.
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#289 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 11:32:15 AM | message detail
Okay, taking Aeris > Shepard AND Auron > Samus.
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#290 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 11:33:18 AM | message detail
spooky96 posted...
Cloud is going to really ruin every/most B8ers bracket. There's no way Cloud is going t o lose to Snake. Hell, even if you throw in Sora, Cloud will still most likely win. Would feel pretty good when everyone will be thinking "Oh gawd why did I put so much faith in Ekans...Cloud is beating him as usual..."


IIRC I have Cloud getting to the finals on the grounds that Snake benefited from a bandwagon against him both of the last times he was pit against him.
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#291 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/17/2013 11:34:55 AM | message detail
Lee Everett – 20
Mr. Game & Watch – 8
Meat Boy – 3


lol I was NOT expecting this.
#292 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/17/2013 11:40:08 AM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Lee Everett – 20
Mr. Game & Watch – 8
Meat Boy – 3


lol I was NOT expecting this.


The general consensus on the board is that The Walking Dead will have some strength, but without much proof outside of a decent performance at the Game of the Year polls this could very well be an upset waiting to happen.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#293 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/17/2013 11:43:58 AM | message detail
The Walking Dead finished just behind Xenoblade in our GotY voting. I probably wouldn't even take Shulk over an established Smasher like G&W, and Shulk is a traditional RPG lead with a sword and pretty-boy looks and everything. Lee is just a normal looking dude with a normal name. I find it perplexing that he'd be considered even a popular upset, let alone the significant favorite.
#294 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 6/17/2013 11:48:46 AM | message detail
I went with Meat Boy because... well, I think this match pic explains it.

http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20101221072205/board8/images/b/b5/GotD-82.jpg
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#295 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 11:51:40 AM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
The Walking Dead finished just behind Xenoblade in our GotY voting. I probably wouldn't even take Shulk over an established Smasher like G&W, and Shulk is a traditional RPG lead with a sword and pretty-boy looks and everything. Lee is just a normal looking dude with a normal name. I find it perplexing that he'd be considered even a popular upset, let alone the significant favorite.


TWD is far more mainstream than Xenoblade though, and word-of-mouth could have led to increased sales.

You have a really good point though. I think most of us just think Mr. Game & Watch will be really weak. He's probably on about the same level as Master Hand or Sandbag. Not sure if I'd take either of them over Lee.
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#296 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/17/2013 11:54:31 AM | message detail
I wouldn't rank G&W too highly, he only gets his strength from SSB and is not a huge fan favourite like Marth or Captain Falcon.

Of course that may be more than enough to win.
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BOP Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
#297 | superange128 | Posted 6/17/2013 11:57:17 AM | message detail
Yeah it's one thing to be in Smash Bros

it's another if people actually (like) playing as you
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#298 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 6/17/2013 12:05:04 PM | message detail
I feel pretty good about Lee winning. I don't think G&W or Meat Boy will be any strong really.
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#299 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/17/2013 12:07:00 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
Yeah it's one thing to be in Smash Bros

it's another if people actually (like) playing as you


IIRC the consensus is that G&W sucks in Melee but is awesome in Brawl.
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#300 | superange128 | Posted 6/17/2013 12:09:06 PM | message detail
Outside the competitive circle

being better =/= who people actually play
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