Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1055

#51 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 1:35:11 PM | message detail
anondum posted...
to clarify here each match is a 9 way match, and the top one from each 3 pack advances?

that seems to be setting up a bunch of fodder matches because of silly seed numbers. well at least it will be amusing to see how many people don't have ryu beating some obscure tales character.


No, all matches are 3ways.
#52 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/13/2013 1:44:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
Iamthekuzalol posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I actually switched to Clementine > Spyro.


Why? I am on the fence as well. You blabbered the entire time about how Spyro > Clementine only to change it on a whim.


The best argument I had for Spyro winning was that he's the star of an entire series while Clementine is from just one game. The only other one I could think of was child characters never performing well.

I think this topic might have made me change my mind. I'm going to change back to Spyro.

Actually wait, I just remembered why I picked Clementine over Spyro - I didn't want to see Spyro outlast Ratchet. Probably an extremely dumb excuse though, they may be around even in strength.
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#53 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/13/2013 1:50:03 PM | message detail
If you believe that The Walking Dead is going to flop then Spyro winning is possible (Lee is in more danger of losing his match IMO)
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#54 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/13/2013 1:55:36 PM | message detail
Actually wait, I just remembered why I picked Clementine over Spyro - I didn't want to see Spyro outlast Ratchet. Probably an extremely dumb excuse though, they may be around even in strength.

Lol, k then.
#55 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/13/2013 2:08:27 PM | message detail
Also Crash performing well in his last three contests can at least kind of give hope for Spyro.

I have Lee Everett > Mr. Game & Watch for the same reason I have Nathan Drake > Fox: I have faith that the characters with some of the most highly-regarded games this generation can beat out SSB-reliant characters considering how this site has shifted towards the former since last character battle.
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#56 | SoulDynasty | Posted 6/13/2013 2:49:27 PM | message detail
I've seen a bit of Skylanders... it looks dumb (contrary to the PS1 Spyro games), so I don't think Spyro is going to be strengthened at all.

If we're counting Skylanders as a game, it's most likely the biggest game to come out in the past couple of years. Thing is massive. Don't know what it will do for Spyro in this contest though.
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#57 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 3:05:52 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also Crash performing well in his last three contests can at least kind of give hope for Spyro.

I have Lee Everett > Mr. Game & Watch for the same reason I have Nathan Drake > Fox: I have faith that the characters with some of the most highly-regarded games this generation can beat out SSB-reliant characters considering how this site has shifted towards the former since last character battle.


That Drake pick will never stop being a riot to me. That's the bracket equivalent of taking a wad of cash and setting it ablaze on a lark.
#58 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/13/2013 3:08:31 PM | message detail
Does Skylanders have any popularity outside of kids and Jeff Gerstmann? I'd think it'd have the same problem as Angry Birds; a large fanbase that has no presence on GameFAQs.
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#59 | lightsout06 | Posted 6/13/2013 3:44:00 PM | message detail
Dragonborn will be the bandwagon pick this year.

Also am i crazy for picking Mewtwo over Vincent and Phoenix?
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#60 | swirIdude | Posted 6/13/2013 3:52:43 PM | message detail
From: lightsout06 | #057
Dragonborn will be the bandwagon pick this year.

Also am i crazy for picking Mewtwo over Vincent and Phoenix?


Yes, absolutely crazy. Vincent will dominate that match.
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#61 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/13/2013 3:58:41 PM | message detail
If you believe that FFVII has collapsed and Pokemon is even stronger due to X&Y it isn't too crazy, Mewtwo got 41.35% on Ganondorf. I wouldn't go for it personally.
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#62 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/13/2013 4:05:15 PM | message detail
If Mewtwo is threatening Vincent, then Pokemon has boosted (and Final Fantasy dropped) farther than anyone could imagine.

And Pikachu would probably be going to the finals easily.
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#63 | lightsout06 | Posted 6/13/2013 4:12:11 PM | message detail
Well I see Pikachu beating Chrono
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#64 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/13/2013 4:14:07 PM | message detail
Pikachu might beat Crono because of Magus being there.

But I meant the actual finals.

As in Pikachu beating Snake and Cloud.

That is not happening.

Absolutely not.

It is impossible.
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#65 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/13/2013 4:14:46 PM | message detail
I have also Pikachu and Charizard advancing a lot.I mean these 2 are the most known Pokemon.
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#66 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/13/2013 4:18:45 PM | message detail
I love the fact that Spyro is actually in a position to win a match (Crash has a slight chance as well imo) and there's still a very strong possibility that he'll/they'll tank.
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#67 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 6/13/2013 4:24:09 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
From: lightsout06 | #057
Dragonborn will be the bandwagon pick this year.

Also am i crazy for picking Mewtwo over Vincent and Phoenix?


Yes, absolutely crazy. Vincent will dominate that match.


Even though there's a good chance Vincent will win, he wouldn't really dominate that match (and by dominate I mean getting 50%+) unless Mewtwo got his Eclair forme pic or something.
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#68 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 4:42:06 PM | message detail
Ytterbium_70 posted...
swirIdude posted...
From: lightsout06 | #057
Dragonborn will be the bandwagon pick this year.

Also am i crazy for picking Mewtwo over Vincent and Phoenix?


Yes, absolutely crazy. Vincent will dominate that match.


Even though there's a good chance Vincent will win, he wouldn't really dominate that match (and by dominate I mean getting 50%+) unless Mewtwo got his Eclair forme pic or something.


If you win by more than 10% over the next guy, you dominated, plain and simple.
#69 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/13/2013 5:26:24 PM | message detail
Just looked up this old Crash match poll. It's 3 years ago I know, but it gave me slight comfort about depending on Crash to get a W

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3752

I hadn't remembered getting that "high" of a percentage against Ryu H.
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#70 | lightsout06 | Posted 6/13/2013 5:28:59 PM | message detail
yeah and Ryu H. did go on and beat Master Chief they next round iirc
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#71 | ecksgem | Posted 6/13/2013 5:31:10 PM | message detail
Yeah, but then this happened:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3831

Not really a great contest for Hayabusa.
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#72 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 6/13/2013 5:55:02 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
If you win by more than 10% over the next guy, you dominated, plain and simple.


Ah, I see.

I was thinking epic "I made a mid-midcarder and high fodder look like Tanner!" proportions blowout
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#73 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/13/2013 5:56:23 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Just looked up this old Crash match poll. It's 3 years ago I know, but it gave me slight comfort about depending on Crash to get a W

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3752

I hadn't remembered getting that "high" of a percentage against Ryu H.


That was a night match and you can see how Hayabusa got nearly 67% in North America, but got less than 55% outside of North America. In a day match, Hayabusa probably does about 2-3% better.
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#74 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/13/2013 7:10:15 PM | message detail
Now that Aya Brea and Morrigan have made a second appearance in character contests, who's the strongest of the SC2K2 cast yet to make a re-appearance?

....ah, the answer is obvious now. Strider Hiryu. It's a shame he's still never made it back. We must rally for him next year!

And, uh, does Seifer have a shot against Knuckles?
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#75 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/13/2013 7:12:15 PM | message detail
Polls for the next several days:

6/14/2013 - I don't know. Probably a poll related to E3, Xbox One, or the PS4.
6/15/2013 - Who won E3 this year?
6/16/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
6/17/2013 - Have you ever cheated in an online game?


Haste_2 posted...
And, uh, does Seifer have a shot against Knuckles?


Probably not, with Celes Chere being in the match.
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#76 | swordz9 | Posted 6/13/2013 7:13:47 PM | message detail
Rinoa and Seifer would have had chances at advancing if both weren't intentionally screwed by another FF character being in the same match.
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#77 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/13/2013 7:38:33 PM | message detail
Now that Aya Brea and Morrigan have made a second appearance in character contests, who's the strongest of the SC2K2 cast yet to make a re-appearance?

....ah, the answer is obvious now. Strider Hiryu. It's a shame he's still never made it back. We must rally for him next year!


Interesting 20 characters from 2002 have never made the contest again.

Abe
Akira Yuki
Bub
Chop Chop Master Onion
Dirk the Daring
Gabe Logan
Goemon
Iori Yagami
Kane
Kazuya Mishima
Kyo
Mr. Driller
Ms. Pac-Man
Pitfall Harry
Q*Bert
Serious Sam
Servbot
Strider
Tina Armstrong
Ulala

Only Kyo, Serious Sam and Strider won a match. Honestly I would take Ms. Pac-Man over all these characters, I still feel she was SFF by Mega Man like Pac-Man usually is against Mario characters.
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#78 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/13/2013 7:48:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
Probably not, with Celes Chere being in the match.

Kefka didn't get particularly hurt with Cloud in the poll. Likewise with Rydia when competing with Auron, unless she really is above the fodder line. Cecil suffered pretty badly when hanging with Zack, though.

Yeah, I know 3-way will magnify 2-way leeching. We saw what Sephiroth did when he competed against 3 Nintendo characters. He did better against Fox, Meta-Knight, and Wario than against CATS, Meta-Knight, and Peach! Nevermind the fact that Fox was far beyond the Peach or CATS. Crono gained a decent bit against Link/Mario/Samus in 2008, but considering Mario and Samus were already SFFed by Link, Crono's performance isn't that impressive.

Granted, FF8/FF6 don't have nearly the same overlap as Nintendo characters. But we can't forget that a character can overperform signifcantly when against 3 JRPG characters. See Ryu Hayabusa in 2007.

Here I am going around in circles again.... about all we can say is that there will be, to some degree, more overlap in 3-way matches, which we already knew.
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#79 | StarStormScream | Posted 6/13/2013 7:51:46 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
Now that Aya Brea and Morrigan have made a second appearance in character contests, who's the strongest of the SC2K2 cast yet to make a re-appearance?

....ah, the answer is obvious now. Strider Hiryu. It's a shame he's still never made it back. We must rally for him next year!


Wasn't there some silly stipulation that kept him from coming back, like the character didn't originate in a game or something like that?
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#80 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/13/2013 7:57:23 PM | message detail
Strider Hiryu was in the nomination database for this contest, so he could have gotten in, but didn't get enough nominations.
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#81 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 8:15:06 PM | message detail
So what's the deal with the guru and the share link?

Are we using it?
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#82 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/13/2013 8:16:52 PM | message detail
TRE first mentioned the issues regarding the Guru on post #450 of the previous stats topic. If you want to check out the posts, start from here:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66391706?page=8#450

If you have 50 posts per page, you can use that link to go directly to TRE's post. Next, go to last page of the topic as the discussion continues for the next 15 to 20 messages.
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#83 | LeonhartFone | Posted 6/13/2013 8:18:15 PM | message detail
Cecil didn't suffer that bad with Zack in the poll. He just sucked to begin with.

Also LFF will be less significant with three characters.
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#84 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 8:23:45 PM | message detail
Cecil is Knuckles level bro.

Also he shouldn't be weaker than Kain and Rydia, though I'm not sure he looked that much worse than them anyway.
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#85 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 8:24:11 PM | message detail
I don't see what the difference is between posting your bracket in the form of a bunch of text or in a link that has a nice graphical design to it.
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#86 | LeonhartFone | Posted 6/13/2013 8:26:06 PM | message detail
He wasn't at that level in 2008.
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#87 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 8:30:37 PM | message detail
yeah well I don't like hearing the words Cecil and sucked too close together
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#88 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/13/2013 8:32:38 PM | message detail
At the moment I have a Noble Nine Final 9, doesn't feel right.
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#89 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/13/2013 10:54:43 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Now that Aya Brea and Morrigan have made a second appearance in character contests, who's the strongest of the SC2K2 cast yet to make a re-appearance?

....ah, the answer is obvious now. Strider Hiryu. It's a shame he's still never made it back. We must rally for him next year!


Interesting 20 characters from 2002 have never made the contest again.

Abe
Akira Yuki
Bub
Chop Chop Master Onion
Dirk the Daring
Gabe Logan
Goemon
Iori Yagami
Kane
Kazuya Mishima
Kyo
Mr. Driller
Ms. Pac-Man
Pitfall Harry
Q*Bert
Serious Sam
Servbot
Strider
Tina Armstrong
Ulala

Only Kyo, Serious Sam and Strider won a match.

And Tina Armstrong. GFNW begins.
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#90 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 6/13/2013 11:08:46 PM | message detail
Ytterbium_70 posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
If you win by more than 10% over the next guy, you dominated, plain and simple.


Ah, I see.

I was thinking epic "I made a mid-midcarder and high fodder look like Tanner!" proportions blowout


There's that, then there's the Ulti-style blowout.
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#91 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/14/2013 2:48:38 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
yeah well I don't like hearing the words Cecil and sucked too close together


Too bad because Cecil sucked before Dissidia.
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#92 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/14/2013 4:31:52 AM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
yeah well I don't like hearing the words Cecil and sucked too close together


Cecil sucked in The After Years.
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#93 | turbopuns | Posted 6/14/2013 11:20:33 AM | message detail
The more I think about it, the more I feel that Epona is really going to shock a lot of people in this contest.
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#94 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/14/2013 11:25:15 AM | message detail
By losing in the first round or reaching the third?
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#95 | turbopuns | Posted 6/14/2013 11:28:33 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
By losing in the first round or reaching the third?


epona > snake

all day err day

foos betta reconize
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#96 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/14/2013 11:33:30 AM | message detail
turbopuns posted...
charmander6000 posted...
By losing in the first round or reaching the third?


epona > snake

all day err day

foos betta reconize


One less .......
#97 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/14/2013 11:34:53 AM | message detail
Just keep in mind that Epona/Snake will be in round 3, which is customarily the sprite round.

Pic of Link riding Epona vs. Sprite Snake

Just keep that in mind.
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#98 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/14/2013 11:39:29 AM | message detail
Calling it first, there won't be a sprite round this contest. Really don't want to see Big Boss/Snake/Leon blobs again.
#99 | HaRRicH | Posted 6/14/2013 11:46:40 AM | message detail
I'm all about a crazy contest-run for Epona, but Ike's probably going to be in her R2-match and we're finally getting to see what Portal 2 (and its better pictures, not including PotaDOS) truly did for GLaDOS. I'll take Epona over anybody in her nine-pack one-on-one, but I don't think LFF will be too kind for her...still flip-flopping on who to take for Round Three because of this.
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#100 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/14/2013 11:56:44 AM | message detail
I'm a bit nervous about GlaDOS she only got 31.60% on Kirby back in 2010 and even if Epona is a total flop Ike has decent strength (just under 45% against Pikachu and even getting SFF by Mario he ended above the fodder line).

Of course GlaDOS has had free Portal and Portal 2 since then
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