Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1055

#1 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 8:48:46 PM | message detail | (edited)
CB9 T-26 days and counting

BRACKET - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_entry

List of characters for each seed - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_battlers

Submit descriptions for the characters - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/index.php?type=49

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~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
#2 | swirIdude | Posted 6/12/2013 8:42:25 PM | message detail
Clementine is the only one in that match with any upside, so she's the best pick.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#3 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 8:43:38 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
CB9 T-26 days and counting

BRACKET - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_entry_test

List of characters for each seed - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_battlers

Submit descriptions for the characters - http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/feedback/index.php?type=49


You need to update the bracket link because it was taken down. The correct link should be http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_entry
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#4 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 8:44:29 PM | message detail
Spyro the Dragon is one of the weakest characters to make as many contests as he has. Never pick him to win anything.
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#5 | Korayashi | Posted 6/12/2013 8:45:40 PM | message detail
Skylanders is a pretty big franchise, Spyro is in that right? It could have weight if it's a day match or something.
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#6 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 6/12/2013 8:46:08 PM | message detail
#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 8:46:31 PM | message detail
I didn't realize Skylanders was popular at all. And I'm pretty sure Spyro fans hate it.
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#8 | swirIdude | Posted 6/12/2013 8:48:03 PM | message detail
Skylanders only used Spyro's name for the debut game. It is now massive in its own right.

Besides, Spyro looks like he has a skin disorder in that game.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#9 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/12/2013 8:48:50 PM | message detail
Damn, almost a whole month of bracket entering?
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#10 | TheOneAboveAll (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/12/2013 8:49:40 PM | message detail
Thanks Luster. I hadn't planned on making the topic. I had just felt like the few minutes was far too long without one.
#11 | swirIdude | Posted 6/12/2013 8:50:52 PM | message detail
From: ffmasterjose | #009
Damn, almost a whole month of bracket entering?


Yeah, pretty typical. That's why I didn't like Allen stretching out the seed reveals; it added several days of waiting.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#12 | superange128 | Posted 6/12/2013 8:51:27 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
Damn, almost a whole month of bracket entering?


If I remember correctly either Characters 2010 or Game of the Decade also had around a month of bracket entering
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#13 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 8:52:42 PM | message detail
Characters 2010 had a long bracket entry period because of Christmas vacation and the GotY polls delaying the start of the contest.
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#14 | turbopuns | Posted 6/12/2013 8:53:43 PM | message detail
You know what would make this the greatest contest ever?

Epona in the final 9.

A man can dream, right?
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#15 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/12/2013 8:54:58 PM | message detail
I really hate taking Spyro to win a match, but I'm not even sure who Reyn is, sounds like turbofodder. Spyro definitely has name recognition.

Still will probably find a way to choke and cost me a point
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#16 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 8:56:18 PM | message detail
Reyn is from Xenoblade, which finished 2nd in GOTY.
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#17 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/12/2013 9:06:15 PM | message detail
I've seen a bit of Skylanders... it looks dumb (contrary to the PS1 Spyro games), so I don't think Spyro is going to be strengthened at all.

It starts July 8 and ends September 12. That means.... 31+31+4+1 = 67 days, if I counted right?

40.5 days R1
13.5 days R2
9 days R3
3 days R4
1 day R5

That seems to be the breakdown.
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#18 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 9:09:01 PM | message detail
Here's a bracket that shows you what matches will be night matches or day matches:

http://i.imgur.com/gg9hUFA.png

Night matches in dark blue, day matches in dark red. Everything after round 2 is 24-hour matches.
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#19 | Ngamer64 | Posted 6/12/2013 9:44:05 PM | message detail
#339 | charmander6000 (charmander) | Posted 6/10/2013 8:45:01 AM | message detail
Anybody have numbers on characters that made the bracket that weren't in the database?

Based on the list in the wiki the following characters made it without the database.

Magikarp
Missile
Raiden
Spring Breeze Dancin'
Tingle

Bit surprised Raiden didn't made it on the list, even the Mortal Kombat one is there.


Uhhhh that's probably my bad, I think I saw Raiden and thought of the MK version without double checking. UPDATED

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Character_Suggestion_List

The other 4 were legit never in the database though, as far as I know.
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#20 | NewCastlEmperor | Posted 6/12/2013 10:06:17 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...
I've seen a bit of Skylanders... it looks dumb (contrary to the PS1 Spyro games), so I don't think Spyro is going to be strengthened at all.

Skylanders' primary demographic is kids. GameFAQ's primary demographic is NOT kids. You are right, albeit for somewhat wrong reasons.
#21 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/12/2013 11:39:57 PM | message detail
When you're such a weak character in the first place, exposure like that is pretty much sure to cause a boost. Heck, Spyro is probably more relevant now than he's ever been during any contest season.

Also it's the face of an entire franchise against two side-characters. Also, Clementine is a child character and child characters have never done well (Link flopped when he got Wind Waker pics, Ness and Zidane have never wowed us, I'm sure there's some other example but I can't think of any).
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#22 | Pondos | Posted 6/13/2013 12:09:07 AM | message detail
Reyn will win because RPG character design is enough to beat those two
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#23 | -Tofa7- | Posted 6/13/2013 1:20:25 AM | message detail
Multiway contests are a nightmare to predict. It doesn't help that there is so much fodder vs fodder matches either.

I can already tell my bracket is trash. My run of good contest placings will probably be coming to an end. I might just go for a lot of chancy upset picks like Epona and Missingno making deep runs and see how that goes.
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#24 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 3:00:22 AM | message detail
Hm, I just remembered Birth By Sleep and that none of the characters got in.
And even though the field doubled, KH went from 4 to 3 characters.

I guess that's the result of nominations being so low
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#25 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 3:01:06 AM | message detail
I'd guess the BBS characters split noms too badly.
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#26 | Safer_777 | Posted 6/13/2013 3:37:18 AM | message detail
Okay so every match is a Triple Threat match right?Since 1 out of 3 advances?
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#27 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 3:39:16 AM | message detail
Correct.
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#28 | Bospsychopaat | Posted 6/13/2013 3:57:37 AM | message detail
Hmm, Crono/Pikachu/Magus being a night match does make me reconsider things. Also Magus in a day match (R1) is something that gets me nervous.
#29 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/13/2013 4:08:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
Bospsychopaat posted...
Hmm, Crono/Pikachu/Magus being a night match does make me reconsider things. Also Magus in a day match (R1) is something that gets me nervous.


Magus is facing a Metal Gear Solid side character and Jade Curtiss. They probably aren't going to do that much better with the demographics. That match is going to draw horrific votals for a day match.
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#30 | XIII_socks | Posted 6/13/2013 4:25:41 AM | message detail
SBD made it without being in the database and was one of only four characters to do so?

Bawss
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#31 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/13/2013 5:39:01 AM | message detail
I actually switched to Clementine > Spyro.
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#32 | tennisboy213 | Posted 6/13/2013 6:44:26 AM | message detail
-Tofa7- posted...
I might just go for a lot of chancy upset picks like Epona and Missingno making deep runs and see how that goes.


They'll make the top 27.
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#33 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/13/2013 12:45:07 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
I actually switched to Clementine > Spyro.


Why? I am on the fence as well. You blabbered the entire time about how Spyro > Clementine only to change it on a whim.
#34 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 12:45:40 PM | message detail
Yeah, that's what LMS does.

You can feel free to ignore his posts on pretty much any subject.
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#35 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/13/2013 12:46:42 PM | message detail
Message From -LusterSoldier- on 06/12/2013

"The Contest begins on Wednesday, June 12, 2013 and will run through the final match-up of the Tournament scheduled for September 12, 2013 (the "Contest Period"). Participants may create their brackets starting on June 12, 2013 and ending at 7:59:59 PM PDT on July 8, 2013 (the "Entry Period")."

Based on what you see above, I assume we are getting 12-hour contest matches for the first 2 rounds before we switch over to 24-hour matches in round 3 (the Division Finals). Is that what you have planned out for this contest?

Message From GameFAQs on 06/13/2013

A full calendar will be released soon


Bacon never actually admitted that we'll be getting 12-hour matches for the first 2 rounds before switching over to 24-hour matches. But it's pretty obvious he's aiming for that schedule.
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#36 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/13/2013 12:57:48 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Yeah, that's what LMS does.

You can feel free to ignore his posts on pretty much any subject.


Lol.

To be fair, i find some of his posts pretty knowledgeable and helpful.
#37 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 12:57:10 PM | message detail
...you really shouldn't.

He has no idea what he's talking about, ever.
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#38 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 12:57:47 PM | message detail
Hey guys, can you help me out with something? I need to know if Sonic has ever faced another character from his franchise, besides Knuckles 1v1. I wanna try and see if I can calculate just how much percentage Knuckles lost relative to what he 'should' have gotten without SFF, and thus set a lower bound for how bad Cecil could possibly be if he's overrated by the stats.
#39 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 12:58:27 PM | message detail
Nope, just Knux.
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#40 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 12:59:40 PM | message detail
new guys taking LMS seriously

so CUTE
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#41 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 1:00:41 PM | message detail
...Man, considering how Mario always gets to fodderize characters from his own franchise, it's surprising Sonic has never faced Tails before. Clearly CJayC and Bacon grew up with the Genesis and not the SNES!
#42 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 1:00:44 PM | message detail
Why would Cecil be overrated when Knuckles got crushed harder than he should have?

And then Sonic got crushed harder than he should have?
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#43 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/13/2013 1:01:27 PM | message detail
Not "new guy", have been here since 2005. Never paid too much attention to him until recently.
#44 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 1:01:27 PM | message detail
CJayC tried to set it up in 2004, but Dante was there instead.
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#45 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/13/2013 1:03:51 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Why would Cecil be overrated when Knuckles got crushed harder than he should have?

And then Sonic got crushed harder than he should have?


Because I'm trying to determine if the SFF adjustment Knuckles got in the '10 Xstats is inconstent with Sonic's ability to steal from other characters in his franchise, making the Xstats faulty.
#46 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2013 1:04:59 PM | message detail
SFF isn't consistent in any way, shape, or form.
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#47 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2013 1:06:24 PM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Not "new guy", have been here since 2005. Never paid too much attention to him until recently.


My bad, maybe you don't hang around during the off season?
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#48 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 6/13/2013 1:08:48 PM | message detail
Given Kuza's outstanding Oracle history, I'm pretty sure he knows better than most people anyway!
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#49 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/13/2013 1:17:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
pjbasis posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Not "new guy", have been here since 2005. Never paid too much attention to him until recently.


My bad, maybe you don't hang around during the off season?


Only come to this board during contest season and this isn't my main account, never mind, not gonna to reveal who i am anyway.
#50 | anondum | Posted 6/13/2013 1:20:04 PM | message detail
to clarify here each match is a 9 way match, and the top one from each 3 pack advances?

that seems to be setting up a bunch of fodder matches because of silly seed numbers. well at least it will be amusing to see how many people don't have ryu beating some obscure tales character.