Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1054

#401 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/10/2013 10:09:47 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
I didn't even know that there was a Walking Dead video game.


I didn't either until it started to win a crapload of GOTY awards. It did pretty well in this site's own GOTY polls as well (was 4th in the overall, only behind Borderlands 2, Mass Effect 3, and Xenoblade).

Pretty much confirms that most of us are trying to go off of past contest history. I doubt that will work with a 3-year hiatus that furthermore entails a pretty huge site shift.
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#402 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/10/2013 10:41:21 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
I don't know what to make of Teemo. League of Legends is popular, but it's also a crap game that's completely irrelevant now that Dota 2 has hit its stride. That other LoL character I have never heard of (must be new) and can't see him doing anything.


A crap game that's completely irrelevant now? No need to undermine its quality or relevancy just because you hate the game. Not saying that Teemo is worth anything though.
#403 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/10/2013 10:46:01 PM | message detail
AHHHH! I want to fill out my bracket foreal!
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#404 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2013 11:46:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
Double dose of trend charts coming up.

Trend charts for the night poll - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDJxYWtOZUpwd01Ya2FDX2JvbWVTUlE&gid=1

"Nothing at all" performed worst with the Power Hour and the late morning vote (before Microsoft's press conference). It performed best while the press conference was going on, but it also performed very well during the night vote and early morning vote. "Nothing at all" reached a maximum percentage of 41.38% at 9:10 AM, then lost 1.03% after that point in time. But at 12:30 PM, "Nothing at all" reached its lowest percentage, which was also the same time Microsoft's press conference started. During the press conference, "Nothing at all" gained 0.84% and reached 41.19%. "Nothing at all" ended up losing 0.01% on the last 5 minute update of the conference and finished the poll with 41.18%. We never got to see the trends of this poll after the press conference ended since Bacon immediately put up a new poll afterwards. But it would make sense that "Nothing at all" would have continued losing percentage after the press conference was over with.

"All four of them live", "All four of them, but not live", "Just Sony and Microsoft", and "None of them" all had the same trends - Strong board vote and Power Hour, below average night vote, very terrible early morning vote, and a good late morning vote.

It's probably a good thing this poll was closed early as the vote totals were very terrible. It was projected to finish with about 34000 votes in a full 24-hour poll.
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#405 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2013 11:48:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
Trend charts for the day poll - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHo5OVl3QVFzUTBhN18xc1dURDRnNGc&gid=1

For this poll, I decided to deal with trend charts using the same thing I did for the second poll on the day of the Xbox reveal. Because the poll was put up with less than one hour of DSV trends, I decided to get rid of the DSV by declaring the first 54 minutes to be the Power Hour and starting the ASV at 3:00 PM instead of 2:30 PM.

Hourly vote totals in this poll closely resembles a 12-hour day match. The other 3 press conferences during the day had an effect on the hourly vote totals. When EA's conference started at 4:00 PM, there was a very small drop off in vote totals before a small spike in vote totals after the conference ended. The same thing happened again for Ubisoft's conference at 6:00 PM. Sony's press conference had a much bigger impact since Sony and Microsoft are far more important than EA and Ubisoft. After Sony's press conference ended, there was a very huge spike in vote totals, with some updates reaching 250 votes per update after getting around 70 to 120 votes per update during the conference. One thing to take note of was the 15 minute delay for Sony's press conference. That 15 minute delay caused a small spike in vote totals for 2 updates - there was a 186 vote update and a 187 vote update, followed by a 114 vote update right after the conference started.

"F - Just awful" performed worst during the Power Hour right after Microsoft's press conference was over with. "F - Just awful" was gaining percentage for most of the poll, except for the brief period of time after Ubisoft's press conference ended when it was losing percentage. It started gaining percentage again about 30 minutes before Sony's press conference was supposed to start. During Sony's press conference, it was slowly gaining percentage until the 10:41 PM update because that's when Sony laid the hammer on Microsoft with all the good news that gamers didn't want in the PS4. Then "F - Just awful" went absolutely berserk and gained 1.72% over the final 1 hour, 20 minutes of the poll. "C - Meh, nothing unexpected" had a maximum lead of 862 votes at 9:26 PM. The lead was 844 at 10:41 PM. Over the last 1 hour, 20 minutes, "F - Just awful" managed to cut 399 votes off the lead, for a total of 417 votes removed from the 862 vote lead. There was no way that "F - Just awful" was going to complete the comeback, even if there was no 15 minute delay at the start of the conference. "F - Just awful" might have completed a comeback if Sony's press conference started about 2 hours earlier.

"B - Some great-looking games" performed best during the board vote and Power Hour, but dropped off after the first hour. It easily performed worst after Sony's press conference ended. This option ended up losing a total of 1.06% during the last 3 hours of the poll.

"C - Meh, nothing unexpected" had an average board vote and Power Hour. It had an average ASV, although it performed best during the 2 hours before the start of Sony's press conference. It dropped off slightly during the press conference and absolutely collapsed after 10:41 PM. This option lost a total of 1.13% after reaching a maximum percentage of 31.21% at 9:16 PM.

"D - Barely adequate" had the most balanced trends here, even taking into consideration the extreme trend changes for the other poll options as a result of Sony's press conference. It only lost a total of 0.18% after 9:41 PM.

Since this poll ran for only 9 hours, 54 minutes, it's hard to project vote totals had this poll ran for 24 hours. I project that this poll gets about 37000 votes in a 24-hour poll.
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#406 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/11/2013 8:24:15 AM | message detail
Mega Man boost awwww yeah
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#407 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/11/2013 9:47:39 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
After the really insane start for this poll, we're only about 200 votes ahead of this year's age poll at this point in time. This poll is probably breaking 50000 votes unless this poll was extremely frontloaded at the start of the poll, but I don't see it finishing with more votes than the age poll. Or if Bacon decides to close this poll early to put up a new poll right after the Nintendo's Direct presentation.


Heh, and that's what Bacon decided to do again. Anyways, the poll wasn't breaking 50000 votes despite the insane start for the poll. It had 5533 votes after the first hour (age poll had 5491 by this time), but then vote totals really slowed down after the first hour. I project the poll would have only gotten about 46000 votes in a full 24-hour poll, which is still pretty far from 50000 with the kind of vote totals we have now.

Trend charts for today's night poll - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdGQ1MFkwdGdkNHY1eTJpb0U1ZllDLWc&gid=1

"A - Nailed it" had a very strong board vote and Power Hour, as the early voters were coming off the biggest victory for gamers in the history of E3. It collapsed after the first hour, but still had an average night vote overall. It performed worst during both morning votes. Because Bacon closed this poll early, I never got to see the trends over a full 24 hours. "A - Nailed it" would have lost percentage for the entire poll if this poll ran for 24 hours. It probably would have lost an additional 3% if this poll ran for 24 hours. Despite the dominance of "A - Nailed it", it actually lost 5 updates to "B - Looking good". There was also one tie update between the 2 options.

"B - Looking good" had the opposite trends of "A - Nailed it". Terrible board vote and Power Hour, average night vote, and a very strong morning vote. It gained most of the percentage that was lost by "A - Nailed it".

"C - Meh, didn't do anything" had a terrible board vote and Power Hour, average night vote, and above average morning vote. Compared to "B - Looking good", the trends for "C - Meh, didn't do anything" were less extreme.

"D - Not good" had a terrible board vote and Power Hour, and performed slightly above average for the rest of the poll. "F - Just horrible" had the most consistent trends out of all the options.
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#408 | DomaDragoon | Posted 6/11/2013 9:52:14 AM | message detail
So, bracket not being open/closed until after E3. Good thing, or bad thing?
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#409 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/11/2013 9:55:02 AM | message detail
Good thing, not sure why but I just felt like answering.

Also I want to revert back to DK > Lightning.
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#410 | MarioSuperstar | Posted 6/11/2013 10:09:10 AM | message detail
Any Mega Man match that was debatable is instantly done with
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#411 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/11/2013 10:20:22 AM | message detail
MarioSuperstar posted...
Any Mega Man match that was debatable is instantly done with


I don't know, that Charizard match is still scary. We've seen Zero completely gimp Mega Man in multi-way polls before.
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#412 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/11/2013 10:22:53 AM | message detail
Overall I don't think Mega Man or any other character will boost much from E3, we may be excited now, but I doubt we will be in a month or two.
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#413 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/11/2013 10:46:13 AM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Overall I don't think Mega Man or any other character will boost much from E3, we may be excited now, but I doubt we will be in a month or two.


Dojo went up. You're Wrong.
#414 | swordz9 | Posted 6/11/2013 10:47:26 AM | message detail
I feel more confident in Charizard with Zero there to hurt Mega Man.
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#415 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/11/2013 10:52:34 AM | message detail
Well, at least I'm kinda thinking about that Mega Man/Zero/Charizard match now, whereas yesterday I was 100% locked in for zard.
#416 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 6/11/2013 12:04:53 PM | message detail
Looking at the match where Weighted Companion Cube beat Mega Man with Zero splitting the vote, Charizard would have to be equal to or stronger than the WCC to win (which isn't exactly difficult to determine).

Irrelevant, but I change my mind on Kratos being a low-midcarder.
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#417 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 6/11/2013 12:06:37 PM | message detail
Surprise twist: Charizard shows up in the Dojo on match day.
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#418 | XIII_rocks | Posted 6/11/2013 12:20:13 PM | message detail | (edited)
Still have total confidence in The Zard to pull through.
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#419 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/11/2013 1:36:13 PM | message detail
Megaman's path is pretty much set in stone so I'm not changing it, will probably change my Ryu > MMX pick when the bracket's officially released.
#420 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/11/2013 1:37:36 PM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Megaman's path is pretty much set in stone so I'm not changing it, will probably change my Ryu > MMX pick when the bracket's officially released.


Here's a mind****: One day before brackets close, Ryu gets confirmed for Smash. Who ya got to win it then?
#421 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/11/2013 1:39:22 PM | message detail
Ytterbium_70 posted...
Looking at the match where Weighted Companion Cube beat Mega Man with Zero splitting the vote, Charizard would have to be equal to or stronger than the WCC to win (which isn't exactly difficult to determine).

Irrelevant, but I change my mind on Kratos being a low-midcarder.


Remember that that was first-outing WCC and there was a Snake in the match. It's not exactly a reliable poll to use.
#422 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/11/2013 1:44:31 PM | message detail
Joke characters in 4-ways and static strength don't mix.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#423 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/11/2013 3:02:08 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Megaman's path is pretty much set in stone so I'm not changing it, will probably change my Ryu > MMX pick when the bracket's officially released.


Here's a mind****: One day before brackets close, Ryu gets confirmed for Smash. Who ya got to win it then?


Can't see X getting much boost, but he comfortably beats Ryu 55-45 either way.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#424 | superange128 | Posted 6/11/2013 4:25:23 PM | message detail
Some character profiles are updated

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_battlers

Be sure to help send in some to so we can fill in the gaps. I see a bunch that I sent in get used which is pretty cool.
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#425 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/11/2013 7:54:03 PM | message detail | (edited)
The poll going on right now has been a very tight wire-to-wire match between "B - Looking good" and "C - Meh". Neither side has gotten a lead over 100 votes. This is a very exciting race going on, because I can't even tell which option will come out on top when the poll closes in 1 hour, 10 minutes from now.

Maximum lead while "B - Looking good" was in the lead - 59
Maximum lead while "C - Meh" was in the lead - 81

Total number of lead changes so far - 12
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#426 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/11/2013 8:08:12 PM | message detail
Even though he's not in the game, it's pretty safe to assume that the AC4 announcement will help Ezio, right?
#427 | abdou | Posted 6/11/2013 8:10:03 PM | message detail
I doubt it. There has been so many AC games I don't think the announcement of yet another one will boost Ezio.
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#428 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/11/2013 8:25:18 PM | message detail
I've seen a good deal of hype over this game, though, and Ezio still is the face of the series here.
#429 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/11/2013 11:48:36 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Megaman's path is pretty much set in stone so I'm not changing it, will probably change my Ryu > MMX pick when the bracket's officially released.


Here's a mind****: One day before brackets close, Ryu gets confirmed for Smash. Who ya got to win it then?


Taking Ryu again lol.
#430 | SuperNiceDog | Posted 6/12/2013 9:48:15 AM | message detail
LordOfDabu posted...
Teemo is only popular with girls



I think Teemo's popular with both. I play a good amount of League of Legends, and he's the first champ I thought of for this contest.
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#431 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/12/2013 10:00:29 AM | message detail
Believe in The Zard
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#432 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/12/2013 10:24:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Trend charts for yesterday's day poll - https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdG5PVnZqamItbDBaaW9rXzNibGxZTXc&gid=1

For this poll, since it started at 10:46 AM EST, the Power Hour officially comes to an end at 12:00 PM. 12:00 PM to 2:30 PM will be the DSV, and the ASV starts at its normal 2:30 PM in this day poll.

"B - Looking good" had a very strong board vote, but quickly collapsed during the rest of the Power Hour. "C - Meh" had a very bad board vote, but quickly recovered by the end of the Power Hour. After the Power Hour, there was very little movement in the trends. The best thing about this poll isn't the trends, it's the close wire-to-wire match between "B - Looking good" and "C - Meh".

For the entire poll, neither "B - Looking good" or "C - Meh" was able to get a lead above 100 votes. There were a total of 12 lead changes in this poll.

Maximum lead while "B - Looking good" was in the lead - 62
Maximum lead while "C - Meh" was in the lead - 81

Number of 5 minute updates where "B - Looking good" was in the lead - 78
Number of 5 minute updates where "C - Meh" was in the lead - 74
Number of 5 minute updates with a tie between both options - 6

It was almost even between the 2 options based on the amount of time each option was in the lead.
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#433 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/12/2013 10:23:55 AM | message detail
Just heard about Mega Man in the new Smash game

Mega Man to the finals confirmed
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#434 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 10:57:17 AM | message detail
Mega Man isn't losing to Charizard now. I don't think he can take down Mario even with Samus there, but man that match will be fun. But yes, this is the boost Mega Man has needed for a while. Now to get Crono into Smash...
#435 | -Zelmor- | Posted 6/12/2013 11:04:12 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#436 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 11:08:10 AM | message detail
Because Mega Man is going to get LFF'd, too.

Smash Bros. won't really help him that much against other Smash Bros. characters. Remember how Snake got announced in Smash and then steamrolled the entire bracket...until he hit Samus and lost pretty easily?
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#437 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/12/2013 11:28:58 AM | message detail
Leon, I'm not sure how completely true that is. Mega Man still has fans and is still very popular. What being in Smash will do is revitalize a lot of those old fans. I think 2002-3 Mega Man could take out Mario with Samus dragging him down. The question is if this puts Mega Man back up to that level. I think Mario still has more combined strength, but this match is definitely debatable now.
#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 11:40:15 AM | message detail
Mega Man will probably be the least affected in that match, but he won't be entirely unaffected.

Besides, he's got to survive having Zero with him against a tough near elite opponent first.
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#439 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/12/2013 11:41:19 AM | message detail
Megaman was possibly SFFed by Mario back in 2010 so while the LFF might hurt Mario/Samus more, the LFF could potentially be offset by the SFF hammer laid on MM.
#440 | shane15 | Posted 6/12/2013 11:59:29 AM | message detail
My Rinoa and Welkin ones didn't get used.
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#441 | spooky96 | Posted 6/12/2013 12:14:54 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#442 | Haste_2 | Posted 6/12/2013 12:28:25 PM | message detail
Remember when Sonic was supposed to get a boost from Brawl?

I forgot where it fit in... IIRC he was announced as a Brawl character in the middle of the 2007 contest? I seem to remember Sonic barely outperforming Sub-Zero early in round 1, only to nearly double him next round. The next round he maintained the same proportion of votes with Sub-Zero, yet struggled to beat Squall! So, we don't know if Sonic really benefitted in the long run, except that most likely was aided in the days following the Brawl announcement.

I hope Mega Man gets a Snake-like Smash boost, but I don't see it happening.

Hmmmm....hmmmmm....... do you think Mega Man would be able to beat Snake once again in a rematch?
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#443 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/12/2013 12:34:47 PM | message detail
Sonic would've lost to Squall if not for Brawl. Book it.
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#444 | Zylothewolf | Posted 6/12/2013 12:42:00 PM | message detail
Haste_2 posted...


Hmmmm....hmmmmm....... do you think Mega Man would be able to beat Snake once again in a rematch?


Naw, he must first win over Sephiroth.

Oh I miss those good old days when we thought that Mega Man was the strongest character after Clinkeroth. And Zero did better on Mega Man than Snake who barely won over Frog and Bowser.

Good times.
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#445 | VeryInsane | Posted 6/12/2013 1:30:23 PM | message detail
I feel like I'm the only one who thinks Jak is going to win his match.

I mean, name recognition has to account for something when your opponents are a League character and a JRPG character, I'd imagine.
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#446 | Xeybozn | Posted 6/12/2013 1:59:16 PM | message detail
So I was looking at 2010 to see if there was a good way to figure out how strong Charizard was in his pre-bandwagon/new Pokemon release day matches and noticed something:

1. Tails and Simon Belmont were in the same vote-in poll in 2010. (Tails got 51.04% on the votes between them.)
2. Because we saw Zelda > Ezio > Simon and Charizard > Kratos > Tails in 2010, we can compare Charizard and Zelda.

X-stats for these guys with Tails/Simon getting their vote-in percentages against each other projects Zelda to get just over 56% against Charizard. Obviously vote-ins and matches from three years ago aren't very accurate, but maybe Zelda actually has a chance in that match. (Or lol vote-in stats, whichever)
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#447 | NewerShadow | Posted 6/12/2013 2:18:10 PM | message detail
So... that expert challenge looks like it will be interesting.
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#448 | superange128 | Posted 6/12/2013 2:54:39 PM | message detail
NewerShadow posted...
So... that expert challenge looks like it will be interesting.


Yeah it looks really cool
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#449 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/12/2013 2:56:42 PM | message detail
With the bracket officially open so is the BOP.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66439939
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#450 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/12/2013 3:04:22 PM | message detail
Regarding the Guru contest, we can't fully rely on the "Share This Bracket" links. The brackets shown are based on the url you use not the bracket that was submitted.
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Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place