Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1054

#101 | Ryugai | Posted 6/9/2013 4:53:50 PM | message detail
Blue could conceivably win 2 matches as everyone with him in the second round, if he beats Fox, is weak as hell.
#102 | pjbasis | Posted 6/9/2013 4:53:50 PM | message detail
Yeah I don't know about Hero winning that match, but shame about Rinoa.



Also no Chris Redfield. wat
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#103 | Jakyl25 | Posted 6/9/2013 4:54:16 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Not sure how much this has been discussed, but it's looking like Charizard could be the favorite out of his division as Mega Man and Zero could both easily join him in that final match. From there, it's a Nintendo 3way against Mario and Samus. Mario is the favorite there, but who honestly knows; we've seen Pokemon catch fire time and time again. Charizard in the final against Link and Cloud would look so out of place lol



And then Zard wins thanks to SWORDSMAN SFF
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#104 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/9/2013 4:54:54 PM | message detail
Hazama was never the most popular character from BB though, dont see why RAWRgna getting in is a bad thing.

Also Screw you Catherine
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#105 | Ringworm | Posted 6/9/2013 4:55:16 PM | message detail
It's official, Magikarp is winning this contest.

Seriously, interesting bracket, got most of my characters in, I'm happy with it. Few dodgy matches as already mentioned, but pretty good overall Allen.
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#106 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 4:55:16 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Not sure how much this has been discussed, but it's looking like Charizard could be the favorite out of his division as Mega Man and Zero could both easily join him in that final match. From there, it's a Nintendo 3way against Mario and Samus. Mario is the favorite there, but who honestly knows; we've seen Pokemon catch fire time and time again. Charizard in the final against Link and Cloud would look so out of place lol


Don't overestimate Charizard. You have to use his Kratos/Duke value, not his later showings, or you get a skewed picture.
#107 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 6/9/2013 4:55:47 PM | message detail
tag, holy crap this bracket is nuts
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#108 | ff6man | Posted 6/9/2013 4:55:49 PM | message detail
Could Peach sap Kirby enough to get Terra through?

Maybe...? ....Please? :(
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#109 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 4:56:25 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Wrex is gonna wreck both of them tbh

Cecil well...sucks and is unplayed in Dissidia. So he's not getting much of a boost.
Doubt Pit beats Wrex


Cecil = Knuckles. Are you taking Wrex over Knuckles in a match?
#110 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/9/2013 4:56:45 PM | message detail
No, TERROR BALTIMORE is pretty screwed

Kirby is gonna eat em both
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#111 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/9/2013 4:57:24 PM | message detail
When the hell was Cecil = Knux?

That implies Cecil > Magus and even Im not crazy enough to believe that
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#112 | tgs2 | Posted 6/9/2013 4:57:36 PM | message detail
Charizard could still get a boost from X/Y hype albeit not as big as HGSS Release day+ bandwagon shenanigans. I seem him barely squeaking by Zelda/Lightning.
#113 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 4:58:28 PM | message detail
ff6man posted...
Could Peach sap Kirby enough to get Terra through?

Maybe...? ....Please? :(


Terra wouldn't beat Peach, and the latter is the definition of 'fanbase leech' after Ganondorf. What makes you think she's going to beat Kirby?
#114 | shane15 | Posted 6/9/2013 4:58:31 PM | message detail
At least Squall has avoided a bad start.
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#115 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 6/9/2013 5:00:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Hazama was never the most popular character from BB though, dont see why RAWRgna getting in is a bad thing.

Also Screw you Catherine


Because Hazama is probably the only BlazBlue character capable of doing anything. Granted it would take a rally and is unlikely but he's probably the only one I could see possibly sneaking a win.

Don't get me wrong, I like Ragna. I would have just preferred to see Hazama.
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#116 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2013 4:58:39 PM | message detail
ff6man posted...
Could Peach sap Kirby enough to get Terra through?

Maybe...? ....Please? :(


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3821

I guess Terra is probably slightly above the fodder line based on her match with Squall. That's definitely not strong enough to beat Kirby, even with LFF from Peach.
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#117 | pjbasis | Posted 6/9/2013 4:59:01 PM | message detail
Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare

Holy crap I don't know
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#118 | Pirateking2000 | Posted 6/9/2013 5:00:04 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Hazama was never the most popular character from BB though, dont see why RAWRgna getting in is a bad thing.

Also Screw you Catherine


Because Hazama is probably the only BlazBlue character capable of doing anything. Granted it would take a rally and is unlikely but he's probably the only one I could see possibly sneaking a win.


Actually I am pretty sure Hype Dog could have also done something

...DAMNIT WE SHOULD HAVE RALLIED HYPE DOG!
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#119 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 6/9/2013 5:00:41 PM | message detail
I dont think hell get anywhere near it, but I do want to See Charizard in the finals. As pipe dream as it is.

You just cant resist that Fiery Dragon (despite not actually being a Dragon)
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#120 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/9/2013 5:01:13 PM | message detail
This bracket is really hard to predict now. Hahaha.
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#121 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 6/9/2013 5:02:05 PM | message detail
Oh wow, just seen Wolfs placement too. Well that ruins a debatable match!
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#122 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:02:06 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
When the hell was Cecil = Knux?

That implies Cecil > Magus and even Im not crazy enough to believe that


Knuckles beat Cecil 52-48. It's not an exact 50-50 affair but it's very close. If you asked me to pick between Cecil and Magus, I'd take Cecil in a heartbeat.
#123 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/9/2013 5:02:19 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Don't overestimate Charizard. You have to use his Kratos/Duke value, not his later showings, or you get a skewed picture.



Even when using his weaker performances as a gauge, he could still have enough power to get through a match in which Mega Man and Zero are handicapping each-other. He won't fold (does Pokemon ever?), and he's the "most" Nintendo of the three, so the MM duo won't be able to use the Nintendo advantage they've held in past matches.
#124 | special_sauce | Posted 6/9/2013 5:02:58 PM | message detail
Dracula finna win the division
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#125 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/9/2013 5:03:35 PM | message detail
Jigglypuff > X
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#126 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:04:08 PM | message detail
ShatteredElysium posted...
Oh wow, just seen Wolfs placement too. Well that ruins a debatable match!


Hardly. Wolf is a big ol' leech and Fox has contest strength. Let's assume Blue is EXACTLY as strong as Red, which is doubtful - Fox wins that match 55-45, hardly in doubt. Wolf would have to severely leech Fox's support and Blue would have to heavily overperform relative to what we'd expect of him (a good two steps below his MC, like it happens with Mario/Bowser and the like) to win. I'm taking Fox there, that albatross around his neck ain't big enough.
#127 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:07:42 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Don't overestimate Charizard. You have to use his Kratos/Duke value, not his later showings, or you get a skewed picture.



Even when using his weaker performances as a gauge, he could still have enough power to get through a match in which Mega Man and Zero are handicapping each-other. He won't fold (does Pokemon ever?), and he's the "most" Nintendo of the three, so the MM duo won't be able to use the Nintendo advantage they've held in past matches.


That's fair, I'm just saying, don't expect super beastmode Zard. Hell...I'm not sure if he wins the Lightning/Zelda match. I'm picking him for it, but can you imagine what happens if Zelda and Zard's fanbases are distinct enough that each pulls a separate portion of the vote? Do you take Charizard to defeat Zelda assuming that happens?
#128 | GloriousSweater | Posted 6/9/2013 5:08:24 PM | message detail
And here's something else: Charizard's surprising presence in the final could give Cloud a better shot at victory than anyone else, even Mario. It's hard to imagine a more "Link-resistant" Nintendo character than a supercharged Charziard or Missingno. If need be, Link could probably SFF-hammer Mario to the tune of 70/30. I doubt he'd be able to do the same to a hype-riding Charizard.
#129 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:09:19 PM | message detail
Actually, and about that...didn't Megaman and Zero meet before? In a no-SFF match, no less? I'm...not so sure about Zard's chances. What if it happens again? What if Megaman and Zero just go at it full-strength?
#130 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/9/2013 5:09:29 PM | message detail
Supercharged ? Block.
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#131 | Osfan | Posted 6/9/2013 5:10:16 PM | message detail
Not sure if they have released anything on the round format but this is what the matchups for the complete bracket look like if they do the first 2 rounds alternating day and night matches. Its a little off on the alignment on the bottom and for some reason the screen capture always has that glitch on Zelda and I am too lazy to fix either. =P Hopefully this is accurate...

Blue - Night, Yellow - Day, and Green - Full Day

http://i.imgur.com/YGVtbxG.png
#132 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/9/2013 5:10:32 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Oh wow, just seen Wolfs placement too. Well that ruins a debatable match!


Hardly. Wolf is a big ol' leech and Fox has contest strength. Let's assume Blue is EXACTLY as strong as Red, which is doubtful - Fox wins that match 55-45, hardly in doubt. Wolf would have to severely leech Fox's support and Blue would have to heavily overperform relative to what we'd expect of him (a good two steps below his MC, like it happens with Mario/Bowser and the like) to win. I'm taking Fox there, that albatross around his neck ain't big enough.


The hell are you talking about? Fox is close, but still weaker than Red. I'm guessing Blue is a pretty good step down, but even if Wolf only leeches 20% of Fox's support, thats more than enough.
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#133 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:10:50 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
And here's something else: Charizard's surprising presence in the final could give Cloud a better shot at victory than anyone else, even Mario. It's hard to imagine a more "Link-resistant" Nintendo character than a supercharged Charziard or Missingno. If need be, Link could probably SFF-hammer Mario to the tune of 70/30. I doubt he'd be able to do the same to a hype-riding Charizard.


Never happening bro. Mario does not lose to bandwagons until the entire internet is behind them. He has too much respect for people to go 'lol jokez so randumb! XD!!!!!11one!' and vote against him. He's the face of gaming, and jokes don't work against the face of gaming if Yoshi/Missingno and Charizard/Mario are any indications.

(Oh yeah, and Missingno is losing to Squall, so there!)
#134 | Pirateking2000 | Posted 6/9/2013 5:11:40 PM | message detail
Hype Dog and Hazama (aka Troll Booth Managers) for next battle

anyway so when should this be starting (matches I mean)
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#135 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2013 5:12:31 PM | message detail
Osfan posted...
Not sure if they have released anything on the round format but this is what the matchups for the complete bracket look like if they do the first 2 rounds alternating day and night matches. Its a little off on the alignment on the bottom and for some reason the screen capture always has that glitch on Zelda and I am too lazy to fix either. =P Hopefully this is accurate...


No information has been released on the round format, but I expect 12-hour matches for the first 2 rounds with 24-hour matches after round 2.
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#136 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:13:50 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
ShatteredElysium posted...
Oh wow, just seen Wolfs placement too. Well that ruins a debatable match!


Hardly. Wolf is a big ol' leech and Fox has contest strength. Let's assume Blue is EXACTLY as strong as Red, which is doubtful - Fox wins that match 55-45, hardly in doubt. Wolf would have to severely leech Fox's support and Blue would have to heavily overperform relative to what we'd expect of him (a good two steps below his MC, like it happens with Mario/Bowser and the like) to win. I'm taking Fox there, that albatross around his neck ain't big enough.


The hell are you talking about? Fox is close, but still weaker than Red. I'm guessing Blue is a pretty good step down, but even if Wolf only leeches 20% of Fox's support, thats more than enough.


In what world? Fox has a better contest history, he has more wins, and he's beaten tougher adversaries than Red. He even has better xstats if you wanna talk about that, Raw AND adjusted. He's about even with guys like Sub-Zero, Jill and maybe even Leon. Would you take any of those to lose if they had to share a slot with Liu Kang, Sherry and Ashley, respectively? I wouldn't. Piss-weak leeches don't make a difference when there's a big enough strength gap to begin with.
#137 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/9/2013 5:15:19 PM | message detail
Fox even with Sub-Zero?

Hell no.
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#138 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:15:57 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare

Holy crap I don't know


Nightmare is weaker than the other two, so take him out. Now ask yourself this: if I told you that Phoenix and Marth are even, and that Nightmare might steal votes from Marth, who do you pick?

(Note: if the new Smash trailer is hype and shows Marth off, go with Marth. He's gonna boost from it.)
#139 | swirIdude (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/9/2013 5:17:20 PM | message detail
I have Blue and Cecil going to Round 3.

What am I doing?
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#140 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/9/2013 5:18:13 PM | message detail
I'm having a lot of trouble with that Phoenix Wright match. My gut says Nightmare, but Marth should have a really good shot there too. What is the consensus on that one?
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#141 | Sorozone | Posted 6/9/2013 5:19:19 PM | message detail
I have Marth with no confidence in it.
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#142 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2013 5:19:51 PM | message detail
I think Nightmare will finish in last place in that match, so don't worry about him threatening Marth or Phoenix. And Phoenix gets a night match, so that will only hurt Marth.
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#143 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/9/2013 5:20:19 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
pjbasis posted...
Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare

Holy crap I don't know


Nightmare is weaker than the other two, so take him out. Now ask yourself this: if I told you that Phoenix and Marth are even, and that Nightmare might steal votes from Marth, who do you pick?

(Note: if the new Smash trailer is hype and shows Marth off, go with Marth. He's gonna boost from it.)


I'm not sure who you are, but you should probably do some research before talking out of your ass in this topic.
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#144 | swirIdude (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/9/2013 5:20:21 PM | message detail
X-Stats give it to Marth with 50.87%. So I'm taking Phoenix, and switching to Marth if he's a badass in the SSB4 trailer.
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#145 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:20:35 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
Fox even with Sub-Zero?

Hell no.


You'd be surprised! Their stats are consistent with one singular Fox dip in '08 from '06 onwards. And with that exception aside, the result is always the same: narrow Fox win. Surprising I know, but if you think about it it makes sense. Fox should be at around Captain Falcon's level, maybe a little higher or lower, and I'd certainly pick Falcon to beat Subby.
#146 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/9/2013 5:21:10 PM | message detail
Wait, people are taking Phoenix there? Or is this another example of Board 8 being stupid with a fad character?
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#147 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:22:07 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
pjbasis posted...
Phoenix/Marth/Nightmare

Holy crap I don't know


Nightmare is weaker than the other two, so take him out. Now ask yourself this: if I told you that Phoenix and Marth are even, and that Nightmare might steal votes from Marth, who do you pick?

(Note: if the new Smash trailer is hype and shows Marth off, go with Marth. He's gonna boost from it.)


I'm not sure who you are, but you should probably do some research before talking out of your ass in this topic.


You might want to hit up the contest histories and run some stats. Marth and Phoenix are projected to be dead even, Nightmare is projected to lose cleanly (as much as 44-56 to Marth), and this stays consistent even if we use lol4ways and not the more reliably '10 stats. Strangeness is only strange until it becomes the norm.
#148 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:23:01 PM | message detail
BlAcK TuRtLe posted...
Wait, people are taking Phoenix there? Or is this another example of Board 8 being stupid with a fad character?


No, Marth is in theory at that level. I'm taking it with a grain of salt and waiting until the Smash trailer, but there's no reason to think it's not debatable. Marth isn't strong like Ike is.
#149 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/9/2013 5:24:53 PM | message detail
Actually, now that I think of it that match is interesting because...well, what if Phoenix boosted since '10 too? He did get UMvC3 and now Dual Destinies. What happens if boost goes against boost? Smash hype is the most powerful contest force we have these days, but it's something to think about.
#150 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/9/2013 5:25:03 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Dilated Chemist posted...
Fox even with Sub-Zero?

Hell no.


You'd be surprised! Their stats are consistent with one singular Fox dip in '08 from '06 onwards. And with that exception aside, the result is always the same: narrow Fox win. Surprising I know, but if you think about it it makes sense. Fox should be at around Captain Falcon's level, maybe a little higher or lower, and I'd certainly pick Falcon to beat Subby.


XD I'll take wins over 2006 Master Chief and Tidus over wins over 4th tier Nintendo characters and obscure Fails characters. And to Fox being equal to Falcon, might wanna look at this:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Banjo_vs_Captain_Falcon_vs_Fox_McCloud_vs_Wario_2007
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