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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1053
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If you think Chief vs. Yuna is a toss-up, think outside the box a bit. Anti-MS sentiment is VERY HIGH right now. Chief is gonna carry even more anti-votes than usual because of it. Of course that's totally pending E3. Things could be different by this time next week. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf527KRaCEc |
Man,
seeing all the characters who aren't in, I can't imagine Fett and my
two-man rally for Chex Warrior as the most delicious fodder has
succeeded. --- Sack Up Or Shut Up™ |
Jakyl25 posted... If you think Chief vs. Yuna is a toss-up, think outside the box a bit. And more importantly...if you think Chief/Yuna is a 50-50 affair, you have to realize Chief loses. Look at his record in close matches. He has never come through except with DK, and never will again. You don't have to ask yourself if you think Chief can win. You have to ask yourself if you think Chief can win by at least 52-48 or 53-47. Anything less and he'll drop it. |
AlecTrevelyan006 posted... Man, seeing all the characters who aren't in, I can't imagine Fett and my two-man rally for Chex Warrior as the most delicious fodder has succeeded. Booker DeWitt vs. Gilgamesh vs. Chex Warrior It could happen --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf527KRaCEc |
Jakyl25 posted... AlecTrevelyan006 posted...Man, seeing all the characters who aren't in, I can't imagine Fett and my two-man rally for Chex Warrior as the most delicious fodder has succeeded. Gilgamesh scores 80% of the vote, we dismiss it because of competition Next match Gil goes out and leeches so much of the vote that Sora is thrown to second place and loses to Groose. |
(3) Draven (16) Chie Satonaka Don't know enough about Draven to comment. LoL's an RPG too, right? I guess I'd go with DAT TOP OPTION, though I'd prefer Chie wins. (6) Lucina (13) Dracula Love FE:A, but Drac's got this (3) Chrom (16) The Boss Has The Boss reappeared since her debut? ...Oh, wait, that's right. (15) The Boss > (2) Nathan Drake. Yeah, FE:A loses again. (4) Garrus Vakarian (15) Sub-Zero Subby upsets another 4-seed. No matter how beloved a newbie is, an icon is usually worth more. (6) Alucard (13) Captain Falcon ...Alucard, but I'm not confident about it. (9) Sly Cooper (10) Francis York Morgan ...unless it's turbofodder, I've got the 19-seed at the moment. Sly probably has the advantage, though. (3) Yu Narukami (16) Shadow the Hedgehog CASUAL BAIT ALERT!!! This looks like a match where we can burn the casuals. Shadow's always been weak because not even Sonic fans like him that much. Yu can win this. (5) Booker DeWitt (14) Gilgamesh Gilgamesh has this. (9) Knuckles the Echidna (10) Seifer Almasy My instinct is Seifer, but Knuckles has never been weak, and while Knuckles wasn't really in any of Sonic's well-loved new games, they at least should stop the slide. (4) Master Chief (15) Yuna Why does this match sound familiar? Yuna takes this. (7) Pit (12) Urdnot Wrex ...tough choice, but I think Wrex can win. --- "Everyone has a dick although it may not be physical. You just have to learn to access it within your mind." - blindhobo13 |
I think I'd pick Wrex if his name was just Wrex. stupid, huh? --- xyzzy |
So
we've had 162 characters so far, which means there's a few notable
names that may not have appeared in a standard 128-bracket. Granted,
Bacon shuffled around a lot of seeding, but it's crazy to think we may
not have had freaking Vincent in a contest (unless he somehow didn't
make the cut with 243 characters). --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748 Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64 |
Bets on whether Vincent is in this at all. --- Ours is not to reason why, ours is but to do and die. |
Calintares posted... Bets on whether Vincent is in this at all. This contest is a tribute to the Noble Nine. Vincent arguably broke the Noble Nine. He will be the final boss at the end for them to overcome. --- Thank you, Eddie Guerrero. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sf527KRaCEc |
transience posted... I think I'd pick Wrex if his name was just Wrex. stupid, huh? The more I think about it, the scarier that match gets. It's silly, but I can't help but think about how Pit has a new game now. How much is a series revival worth these days? Do we have an equivalent example of a power boost from coming back to remind gamers you exist? Maybe KHF? The Dissidia Boost? ...Actually, the Dissidia Boost might be a good thing to draw comparisons from. Let's assume Pit experiences a similar boost. Cecil went from being worth 18 points (below the fodder line) to having an even match with Knuckles. According to the stats, Dissidia Cecil almost doubles his old self. Most interestingly, Pit has a near identical xstats value to Old Cecil, and the 3DS is a bigger console than the PSP was at the time. Here's a fun question for you: Assume Wrex goes up against Ike or Terra. Do you take him to win the match? That's about where we can reasonably expect Pit to land. |
Wait, this board still had some people pushing for Rin Tohsaka, right? (5) Tharja (14) Juliet Starling (23) Rin Tohsaka Please let this happen. --- "Everyone has a dick although it may not be physical. You just have to learn to access it within your mind." - blindhobo13 |
I'd
pick Wrex > Pit in a heartbeat if Uprising hadn't happened. I still
MIGHT, but it's not as certain as it would have been otherwise. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
TsunamiXXVIII posted... Wait, this board still had some people pushing for Rin Tohsaka, right? Rin would get 0.01% of the vote. It'd be an amazing thing to see. |
Also,
I'm totally taking Ryu > MMX. I've been convinced MMX is overrated
from the beginning and isn't anywhere near MM Classic's level. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
From: TsunamiXXVIII | #406 Shadow's always been weak http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Mario_vs_Shadow_2003 Not saying he'll win here. Just saying this statement is false. --- Will not remove this line of my signature until the Seahawks, Jazz or Rockies win a title (Started 5-16-09) SuperNiceDog: Guru winner |
LeonhartFour posted... Also, I'm totally taking Ryu > MMX. I've been convinced MMX is overrated from the beginning and isn't anywhere near MM Classic's level. Who says that? He doesn't have to be. He just has to be as strong as '10 Sora. Ryu doesn't even come close to that level, and X is by, any measure you would gauge him through, considerably above that. Do you take X to lose, hard, to Sora? If so mayyyybe start thinking about taking Ryu. |
X-Stats
say Shadow is worth 60% on Laharl. To pick Yu over Shadow, you need Yu
to beat Laharl handily and/or Shadow to suffer a noticeable drop-off. ...I don't know if I'm ready to believe in this. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad |
Or,
to put it in a different way: do you think Ryu can turn the tables on
Bowser without the help of a spoiler these days? If not, don't pick him
to beat X. |
swirIdude posted... X-Stats say Shadow is worth 60% on Laharl. To pick Yu over Shadow, you need Yu to beat Laharl handily and/or Shadow to suffer a noticeable drop-off. ...Tell me you're ****ing with me swirldude. Shadow can't possibly be that low and Laharl can't be that high. |
A lot of people say that. He just has to be as strong as '10 Sora. Ryu doesn't even come close to that level ...you're kidding, right --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
swirIdude posted... X-Stats say Shadow is worth 60% on Laharl. To pick Yu over Shadow, you need Yu to beat Laharl handily and/or Shadow to suffer a noticeable drop-off. Shadow hasn't been playable for a while. You fight him in Generations which I guess was cool but not overly noteworthy --- Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username. |
I just realized something if Slowflake saw this bracket he'd probably have an aneurysm --- xyzzy |
Or,
to put it in a different way: do you think Ryu can turn the tables on
Bowser without the help of a spoiler these days? If not, don't pick him
to beat X. Ryu doesn't have to be that strong to beat MMX. I'd take Bowser > MMX without hesitation as well. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
From: KanzarisKelshen | #420 swirIdude posted...X-Stats say Shadow is worth 60% on Laharl. To pick Yu over Shadow, you need Yu to beat Laharl handily and/or Shadow to suffer a noticeable drop-off. I only report the facts. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad |
LeonhartFour posted... A lot of people say that. No actually. He doesn't. That's about where X comes out to assuming you pitch him down a little and take Sora's tweaked value. I went and checked their histories, too - the only time, and I mean ONLY time that Ryu's been better than Sora is when you take the latter's awful '07 performance. Any other version of Sora beats any other version of Ryu going back all the way to '06. Would you take Ryu to win against any Soras from '06 onwards, Leon? If not, why take him to beat X? That's a reasonable value for him - a clear step below Squall and Vincent, but still a high midcarder. |
LeonhartFour posted... Or, to put it in a different way: do you think Ryu can turn the tables on Bowser without the help of a spoiler these days? If not, don't pick him to beat X. My last post aside, I gotta be honest: I think MMX/Bowser would be a 50-50 affair, too. I don't know who wins, but I know it's close. I don't think Ryu's at that level, though....he just isn't that good. Low votals may change that, though? |
How do we think these Persona characters compare to Tales? Are they more likely to be Lloyd or Jade? --- For your SuperNiceDog. At least Kupo has class and doesn't MESSAGE the people -Dr Pizza |
MoogleKupo141 posted... How do we think these Persona characters compare to Tales? Are they more likely to be Lloyd or Jade? Honestly? 'No freakin' idea'. I feel like Persona characters should be closer to Lloyd's levels, but I can't say I got evidence for it. It's just my personal biases speaking. Realistically I think they'd be closer to Yuri than anybody else. |
X > Bowser > Ryu --- ~The Dilated One~ |
I
went and checked their histories, too - the only time, and I mean ONLY
time that Ryu's been better than Sora is when you take the latter's
awful '07 performance. I'm not sure why you're so insistent on this. Ryu beating Sora is not some insurmountable task. Heck, my personal 2010 adjusted stats have Sora barely ahead of Ryu, so I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Sora beating X isn't out of the realm of possibility either, for that matter. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
Chie is Jade. Yu...maybe Lloyd. And by that I mean current Lloyd. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
LeonhartFour posted... Also, I'm totally taking Ryu > MMX. I've been convinced MMX is overrated from the beginning and isn't anywhere near MM Classic's level. http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3847 http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3826 Cloud almost doubled Ryu, but that was a day match in which Cloud would have done slightly better in a 24-hour match. Link probably gets somewhere around 67-69% on Ryu based on what Cloud did. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I remember those who thought Sora would beat Bowser. Oh, that was a good day. --- ~The Dilated One~ |
LeonhartFour posted... I went and checked their histories, too - the only time, and I mean ONLY time that Ryu's been better than Sora is when you take the latter's awful '07 performance. I'm not sure if they're different from the lolxstats ones, but those throw out a 53-47 and change win for Sora. That's not impossible to overcome, but it does require a boost. Do you think Ryu's boosted a lot? Even the two MvC3s and continued SF updates don't seem like they'd do much for him. He's always floated around the same levels IIRC: |
There's
no way to know for Persona characters, but with recency, a fighting
game that drew in a new crowd and P4/G being so loved I'd assume they're
at least better than Neku and Laharl at the very worst. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
It doesn't require a boost at all. Random deviation from three years of no contests could turn that around. 53-47 is not a big margin. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
KanzarisKelshen posted... Jakyl25 posted...AlecTrevelyan006 posted...Man, seeing all the characters who aren't in, I can't imagine Fett and my two-man rally for Chex Warrior as the most delicious fodder has succeeded. Like Groose is really going to win a battle. ...Oh, right, Lu Bu. Well, the 20-seed can probably handle them both, and if Groose actually does win that one, he'll probably still finish third even if Sora and Gilgamesh SFF. --- "Everyone has a dick although it may not be physical. You just have to learn to access it within your mind." - blindhobo13 |
By the way, I'm not saying Ryu > MMX is a lock by any means. MMX could win that match and do it easily. That's just an upset train I want to ride because I feel like the board will probably heavily side with MMX. I could be wrong though. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
I'd
probably side with MMX, but I don't feel safe picking him. MMX gets a
day match against Ryu, so that probably puts Ryu at a disadvantage. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Dilated Chemist posted... X > Bowser > Ryu ...I'm not even sure I take Mega > Bowser anymore. I guess maybe "iconic status" keeps Mega Man from falling quite as far as Crono, but if Capcom continues to mismanage the franchise this way, give it time. --- "Everyone has a dick although it may not be physical. You just have to learn to access it within your mind." - blindhobo13 |
LeonhartFour posted... By the way, I'm not saying Ryu > MMX is a lock by any means. MMX could win that match and do it easily. Ah, OK. I can respect that, yeah. If you think it's a gamble by all means go for it, I could easily see it happening depending on the third guy - imagine if X draws another sidescroller character, for example. |
A day match means Ryu gets the legendary CALIFORNIA VOTE The match is as good as won --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
-LusterSoldier- posted... I'd probably side with MMX, but I don't feel safe picking him. MMX gets a day match against Ryu, so that probably puts Ryu at a disadvantage. Advantage, actually. Street Fighter dies during the morning, IIRC, and X has a strong power hour and morning vote. |
X sucks with the early morning vote because of the UK vote. And Ryu has a better night vote than day vote. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Ryu/X/Ken whoyagot --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
pjbasis posted... Ryu/X/Ken whoyagot Assuming this is, like, Ken Marinaris from Zone of the Enders or something here...otherwise this is too easy. |
-LusterSoldier- posted... X sucks with the early morning vote because of the UK vote. And Ryu has a better night vote than day vote. Huh, really? I thought he suffered too much from the morning. Ah well, in that case I guess I stand corrected on X's day disadvantage! |
pjbasis posted... Ryu/X/Ken whoyagot This poll I think explains this one http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4828 --- Now Playing Persona 4 Arena Currently repping Yukiko & Mitsuru |
I don't think that explained anything. --- "The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad |
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