Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1053

#51 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 6/7/2013 1:44:44 PM | message detail
WTF Lucina is a 6 seed?

Heritage must do a lot for characters...
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#52 | The Real Truth | Posted 6/7/2013 1:44:59 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure he's manipulating seeding. Characters like Yoshi, Ganon, Bowser, Charizard, Vincent and Tifa aren't even in yet.
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#53 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/7/2013 1:45:30 PM | message detail
Vincent and Tifa have never been big nomination getters anyway.
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#54 | tgs2 | Posted 6/7/2013 1:45:51 PM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
I'm pretty sure he's manipulating seeding. Characters like Yoshi, Ganon, Bowser, Charizard, Vincent and Tifa aren't even in yet.


Or that board8 contributed for 66% of the noms and most of these were characters that b8 rallied behind
#55 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/7/2013 1:46:30 PM | message detail
Hahahaha, Pikachu vs. Crono

Too bad that's a night match, but that's still tempting as hell.
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#56 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2013 1:47:13 PM | message detail
FFVII characters besides Cloud and Sephiroth have difficulty getting nominations because the game has several characters of high midcard status or higher than that. Having to deal with Cloud and Sephiroth doesn't do the rest of the FFVII characters any good in getting nominations.
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#57 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/7/2013 1:47:51 PM | message detail
StarStormScream posted...
Seeding is weird this year, lol. KOS-MOS with a #5. Already 3 Fire Emblem characters. (Need to get a 3DS soon so I can play it)


Four including Ike.
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#58 | StarStormScream | Posted 6/7/2013 1:51:24 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
StarStormScream posted...
Seeding is weird this year, lol. KOS-MOS with a #5. Already 3 Fire Emblem characters. (Need to get a 3DS soon so I can play it)


Four including Ike.


Ah, right, was just thinking of Awakening, haha.
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#59 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 6/7/2013 1:52:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
The Real Truth posted...
I'm pretty sure he's manipulating seeding. Characters like Yoshi, Ganon, Bowser, Charizard, Vincent and Tifa aren't even in yet.


With the really low nomination numbers, wouldn't it mainly be the contest followers nominating? And most of them would likely be nominating characters they think need help getting in, instead of characters who are locks...
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#60 | shane15 | Posted 6/7/2013 1:53:53 PM | message detail
#61 | pjbasis | Posted 6/7/2013 1:54:28 PM | message detail
Hm I just realized the big difference with this bracket over any other contest is that the participants get reduced by 2/3 instead of 1/2 this time.

Kind of harsh for all these new guys.
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#62 | GoldSlime35 | Posted 6/7/2013 1:56:26 PM | message detail
Crono vs Pikachu
Dante vs Squirtle
Luigi vs Big Boss

Those matches should be interesting.
#63 | KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2013 1:58:44 PM | message detail
Hasn't Tifa outright missed multiple contests since her debut? She never gets a lot of support.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#64 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2013 1:59:29 PM | message detail
She once missed a 128 character contest
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#65 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:00:27 PM | message detail
Quite surprised at the number of FE:A characters, must have been a large rally on their board.
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#66 | GANON1025 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:02:17 PM | message detail
Tharja getting this high makes me wonder, will The Butt Factor be the next TJF?
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#67 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2013 2:07:11 PM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
I'm pretty sure he's manipulating seeding. Characters like Yoshi, Ganon, Bowser, Charizard, Vincent and Tifa aren't even in yet.


Vincent was an 8 seed and Tifa was a 10 seed back in 2010. Both of them struggle to get nominations because they are overshadowed by Cloud and Sephiroth.
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#68 | KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2013 2:08:57 PM | message detail
I don't think he's manipulating seeds much if at all. This sort of stuff seems standard, really.

Except Lenneth, that's just odd.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#69 | XIII_rocks | Posted 6/7/2013 2:09:41 PM | message detail
GANON1025 posted...
Tharja getting this high makes me wonder, will The Butt Factor be the next TJF?


Contest needs more Miranda Lawson to get an accurate overview of The Butt Factor
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#70 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/7/2013 2:13:36 PM | message detail
GANON1025 posted...
Tharja getting this high makes me wonder, will The Butt Factor be the next TJF?


Jill isn't in yet, despite dat ass in Revelations. Probably not.
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#71 | shane15 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:14:41 PM | message detail
May as well just reveal the top 8 seeds then fill the rest in.I can't sit here doing 2 reveals a day with 27 seeds to get through.
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#72 | transience | Posted 6/7/2013 2:20:53 PM | message detail
Tharja lol

man, this kinda sucks. there are two characters I was going to go high on: Big Boss and Luigi. and they're in the same match!
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#73 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 6/7/2013 2:27:45 PM | message detail
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?
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#74 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/7/2013 2:28:01 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


Yep.
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#75 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:28:25 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


No man prepare your body for Chrom in the finals.
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#76 | transience | Posted 6/7/2013 2:28:51 PM | message detail
Tales characters are going to look good after this
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#77 | Master Moltar | Posted 6/7/2013 2:29:28 PM | message detail
Nice to see that some interesting matches are starting to appear
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#78 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2013 2:29:48 PM | message detail
I think there will be at least one FE:A character that will end up being stronger than we expected, but most of them are going to bomb.
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#79 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/7/2013 2:29:59 PM | message detail
transience posted...
Tales characters are going to look good after this


I'd still take them over Luke/Jade/Yuri.

But I wouldn't be confident.
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#80 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:30:25 PM | message detail
Chrom may be non-fodder

Lucina and Robin (if he gets in) might do something
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#81 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/7/2013 2:31:14 PM | message detail
12-hour matches will take 40.5 days to complete Round 1.

How does this compare to the longest contest we had?
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#82 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2013 2:35:47 PM | message detail
Dilated Chemist posted...
12-hour matches will take 40.5 days to complete Round 1.

How does this compare to the longest contest we had?


Our longest contest was 69 days and that was for the 2006 Character Battle. 63 days for the main bracket and 6 days for the Battle Royale.


My predictions for this contest:

Round 1 - 12-hour matches (40.5 days)
Round 2 - 12-hour matches (13.5 days)
Round 3 - 24-hour matches (9 days)
Round 4 (Final Nine) - 24-hour matches (3 days)
Round 5 (Final match) - 24-hour match (1 day)

That would be a 67 day contest. I can't imagine Bacon going with a different set-up than that.
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#83 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 6/7/2013 2:37:43 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


Some of them could get lucky and have even bigger fodder end up in their matches.

Tharja/Guybrush/Captain Price

Who you got
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#84 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 6/7/2013 2:38:07 PM | message detail
uhhhhhh guybrush

...

:(
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#85 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 6/7/2013 2:40:25 PM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


Some of them could get lucky and have even bigger fodder end up in their matches.

Tharja/Guybrush/Captain Price

Who you got


Always bet against Guybrush, but this would be the closest he ever came to a win.
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#86 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/7/2013 2:41:05 PM | message detail
FateStayAlbion posted...
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


Some of them could get lucky and have even bigger fodder end up in their matches.

Tharja/Guybrush/Captain Price

Who you got


Price, without looking back.
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#87 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:42:17 PM | message detail
Price destroys everyone, got 35% on MMX (would have to drop quite a lot to lose)
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#88 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/7/2013 2:43:11 PM | message detail
Price's 35% on MMX was in early 2010, before Call of Duty started to be more hated.
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#89 | superange128 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:44:07 PM | message detail
Tharja at least has TJF (unless for some reason she gets a pic without boob shot) and recency factor
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#90 | Jakyl25 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:46:24 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Our longest contest was 69 days and that was for the 2006 Character Battle. 63 days for the main bracket and 6 days for the Battle Royale.



Awesome, that means I am the Character Battle Iron Man.
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#91 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 6/7/2013 2:51:42 PM | message detail
Crimson Dragoon posted...
so all these FE:A characters are going to get eviscerated right?


I imagine at least one of them will win a match, if only because this contest looks so fodderiffic that the mere fact that they're Nintendo will propel them ahead of some niche 3rd-party characters.

Or maybe not. Plenty of obvious winners still haven't appeared. Chrom's favorable 3-seed could run into a 16-seed from FFVII.
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#92 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:53:34 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Chrom may be non-fodder

Lucina and Robin (if he gets in) might do something


who is Robin

I don't remember a Robin
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#93 | superange128 | Posted 6/7/2013 2:55:27 PM | message detail
MoogleKupo141 posted...
charmander6000 posted...
Chrom may be non-fodder

Lucina and Robin (if he gets in) might do something


who is Robin

I don't remember a Robin


Main Character
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#94 | GANON1025 | Posted 6/7/2013 3:04:52 PM | message detail
TheArkOfTurus posted...
GANON1025 posted...
Tharja getting this high makes me wonder, will The Butt Factor be the next TJF?


Jill isn't in yet, despite dat ass in Revelations. Probably not.


To be fair, Revelations is slightly less well known than the other games she appears in. Maybe people simply don't know about it.
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#95 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/7/2013 3:04:53 PM | message detail
FE:A sold almost twice as much as ToV and nearly 4 times TotA. It has the advantage of being a Nintendo series and a fairly recent release. I don't expect them to do as well as ToS characters when they were at peak strength, but they should be able to outperform the Tales characters right now.
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#96 | KamikazePotato | Posted 6/7/2013 3:08:03 PM | message detail
Fire Emblem characters are way more stratified than other games. Tharja is just one character out of a ton you have to choose from. Chrom might do decently because main character, but outside of that it's hard for me to see them doing much.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#97 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 6/7/2013 3:14:10 PM | message detail
Wow, where is everyone? Yoshi, Ryu, Mega Man X, Vincent, Bowser?

Squirtle higher seeded than Charizard, Mewtwo, and MissingNo. b8 rally doin' some work! Also, for some of these mid-seeds, do we have any idea how many nominations they had?
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#98 | superange128 | Posted 6/7/2013 3:14:50 PM | message detail
People keep forgetting that strong characters aren't always the most nominated for some reason, especially when there are multiple characters from the same series
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#99 | GANON1025 | Posted 6/7/2013 3:15:54 PM | message detail
Seed 8, Board 8 huh
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#100 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 6/7/2013 3:16:20 PM | message detail
Predict this 3-way

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Pikachu
Barret Wallace
Ryu
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Winner faces Crono and some other character.
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