Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1053

#451 | StarStormScream | Posted 6/8/2013 6:52:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
swirIdude posted...
I don't think that explained anything.


Just the usual leeching example and what not. Ken & Ryu sharing enough of a fan/player base that Chun, who's typically the 3rd favorite, gets the 2nd easy. In which I'd take X easy in the presented match since I'd struggle to pick Ryu > X outright.
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#452 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/8/2013 6:51:43 PM | message detail
I thought it was a joke, since Ryu/X/Ken is like Ryu X Ken, or Ryu vs. Ken.
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#453 | swirIdude | Posted 6/8/2013 6:59:00 PM | message detail
Well yeah. I'd pick X regardless so that match would just be a clear X win.

Damnit 3 ways!
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#454 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2013 7:25:43 PM | message detail
44 characters from 2010 have not appeared yet. While I don't expect to see some the size of the list and who's still on it is surprising.

Aerith Gainsborough
Akuma
Altair
Arthas Menethil
Axel
Banjo
Big Daddy
Captain MacMillan
Captain Price
Cecil Harvey
Chris Redfield
Cid Highwind
Darth Revan
Eddie Riggs
Ellis
Falco Lombardi
Fawful
Heavy
HK-47
Jak
Jecht
Jill Valentine
Ken
Liquid Snake
Marcus Fenix
Meta Knight
Niko Bellic
Prince of Persia
Princess Peach
Prinny
Ridley
Rikku
Roxas
Ryu Hayabusa
Sackboy
Sandal
Simon Belmont
Soap MacTavish
Spy
Thrall
Vault Boy
Vincent Valentine
Wander
Weighted Companion Cube
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#455 | MoogleKupo141 | Posted 6/8/2013 7:28:52 PM | message detail
Some of those characters could really shake up the weaker matches.
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#456 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 7:29:24 PM | message detail
Characters out of that list I'd be pretty surprised if they showed back up:

Cid (since he was an NRT rally and lost round 1)
Darth Revan (same)
Eddie Riggs
Ellis
Fawful
Prinny (Guru pick)
Sandal

Characters I'd be pretty surprised if they DIDN'T show up:

Big Daddy
Chris Redfield
Liquid Snake
Meta Knight
Princess Peach
Ryu Hayabusa
Vincent Valentine

Everyone else is somewhere in between.
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#457 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2013 7:30:13 PM | message detail
I would expect to see Aerith, Axel, Jill, Ridley, Rikku, Cecil, Ryu H., Chris and maybe Cube, Altair, Roxas, Ken.
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#458 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2013 7:30:52 PM | message detail
Oh forgot about Big Daddy and Meta Knight.
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#459 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2013 7:31:48 PM | message detail
Leon and Wesker are in the same match, lol.
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#460 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/8/2013 7:32:22 PM | message detail
Still for someone like Altair to go from a 2 seed to missing out a 243 character battle is pretty sad.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 7:33:50 PM | message detail
Altair probably makes it. I'd be a little surprised if he missed totally.

But Ezio is THE Assassin's Creed character now.
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#462 | TheArkOfTurus | Posted 6/8/2013 7:34:38 PM | message detail
Jill missing the contest would surprise me more than anything else. She was the main character of a well received game in 2012, and that game got a console port like a week before nominations started. She's never missed a contest she was eligible for before, yet she wouldn't have made vote-ins in a 128 character contest? I can't wrap my head around that.
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#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 7:37:41 PM | message detail
Oh, was Jill in Revelations? I didn't know that.

Then yeah, add her to the list.
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#464 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 6/8/2013 7:49:06 PM | message detail
TheArkOfTurus posted...
Jill missing the contest would surprise me more than anything else. She was the main character of a well received game in 2012, and that game got a console port like a week before nominations started. She's never missed a contest she was eligible for before, yet she wouldn't have made vote-ins in a 128 character contest? I can't wrap my head around that.


Didn't Jill miss 2005?
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#465 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 6/8/2013 8:02:43 PM | message detail
Is Bacon expecting Magus to lose in R1 or did he really just try to take Crono out in R2?
#466 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 8:07:58 PM | message detail
Either that, or Bacon still doesn't get how LFF works.
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#467 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 6/8/2013 8:08:24 PM | message detail
More like he's putting Vincent with Crono and taking him out in R1
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#468 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2013 8:12:52 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Either that, or Bacon still doesn't get how LFF works.


I don't blame him for not understanding the most important concepts that can influence results in a contest match. He simply doesn't have the time to read up on these concepts because he is too busy running GameFAQs.
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#469 | paulg235 | Posted 6/8/2013 8:13:40 PM | message detail
Vincent failing to even make it in considering how lethal he has been in previous contests would be ****ing terrible. I'm assuming he's gonna make it. Hopefully, Bacon puts him in a currently weak match like Tharja/Starling or Valkyrie/Claptrap.
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#470 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 8:14:59 PM | message detail
Except people have mentioned it to him before and he doesn't seem to understand what the problem is.
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#471 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 6/8/2013 8:15:28 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
Vincent failing to even make it in considering how lethal he has been in previous contests would be ****ing terrible. I'm assuming he's gonna make it. Hopefully, Bacon puts him in a currently weak match like Tharja/Starling or Valkyrie/Claptrap.


Having Vincent ruin an otherwise debatable (even if pointless fodder) match would be awful.
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#472 | swirIdude | Posted 6/8/2013 8:19:08 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | #470
Except people have mentioned it to him before and he doesn't seem to understand what the problem is.


Because he enjoys upsets, I bet.
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#473 | swirIdude | Posted 6/8/2013 9:05:35 PM | message detail
I wanted to take the Tails > Ezio upset, then I remembered Brotherhood and Revelations both came after the 2010 contest. Drat.
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#474 | VeryInsane | Posted 6/8/2013 9:52:15 PM | message detail
Actually leaning on picking DK over Lightning.

Am I crazy?
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#475 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 9:53:13 PM | message detail
It's not a terrible pick if you think the site hates XIII that much.
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#476 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/8/2013 10:00:56 PM | message detail
VeryInsane posted...
Actually leaning on picking DK over Lightning.

Am I crazy?


It'd be a close match if you assume that the GAME FUEL Theory holds for Lightning. Chief was stronger during the pre-Halo 3 media blitz than he was after the game released. If the same applies to Lightning, then DK has the match on lock. It's a risky gamble though - you have to count on 'oh hey this girl is Cloud with boobs!' getting more votes than 'oh man I played Lightning's game and she was so cool!'.
#477 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 10:02:09 PM | message detail
Lightning only looked sorta like Cloud in the early designs, but people still like to mention this.
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#478 | swirIdude | Posted 6/8/2013 10:05:22 PM | message detail
Lightning won't be as strong as 2010 so it's a decent upset. I think Lightning Returns hype will keep her above DK level however.
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#479 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/8/2013 10:09:15 PM | message detail
Oh my, Chris and Jill better don't miss the field. As for Ryu > MMX, it's definitely within the realm of possibility so i might consider it.
#480 | Ytterbium_70 | Posted 6/8/2013 10:10:27 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Altair probably makes it. I'd be a little surprised if he missed totally.


I'm thinking that Connor took a ton of nominations from Altair, which explains his low seeding/absence
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#481 | VeryInsane | Posted 6/8/2013 10:12:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
I think DK is a tad stronger than he was in 2010 (DKCR came out for him) and I don't see Lightning anywhere near Vivi level so yeah I guess I'm going with that one.
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#482 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/8/2013 10:34:47 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Lightning only looked sorta like Cloud in the early designs, but people still like to mention this.


When you're blowing things out of proportion and being cartoonishly superficial, you can't afford to look at such silly things as pictures!
#483 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/8/2013 10:39:12 PM | message detail
swirIdude posted...
Lightning won't be as strong as 2010 so it's a decent upset. I think Lightning Returns hype will keep her above DK level however.


From what I've heard, Lightning Returns didn't really get anyone excited.

I decided not to stick with Lara > Kefka, however I decided to pick every Fire Emblem: Awakening character to lose in round 1 (in hindsight, probably not a great idea) and pick Corvo > Red. No idea who wins between Chrom and The Boss - that match sounds similar in set-up to Nathan Drake vs. The Boss, so I picked The Boss to score the upset. Then I picked Juliet > Tharja just so that she wouldn't outlast her game's lead.
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#484 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/8/2013 10:43:16 PM | message detail
FF13 is so hated on this site it isn't even funny. Zidane/Vaan/Tidus could all look at her, call her a loser and not sound like a hypocrite.
#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/8/2013 10:43:44 PM | message detail
Lightning would destroy Vaan.
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#486 | LordOfDabu | Posted 6/8/2013 10:46:43 PM | message detail
Design matters, even if a game is hated (and I don't think FFXII or FFXIII are anymore anyway)
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#487 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/8/2013 10:56:40 PM | message detail
While I don't think FF12 is that hated anymore, the same can't be said for FF13.

As for the Vaan part, i was just kidding but i might consider taking Zidane/Tidus over her lol.
#488 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/8/2013 11:42:00 PM | message detail
LordOfDabu posted...
Design matters, even if a game is hated (and I don't think FFXII or FFXIII are anymore anyway)


And there's nothing special about Lightning's design whatsoever. It's generic as hell.

Speaking of which, could we see the first instance of "character design SFF" with Samus and Isaac Clarke from Dead Space in the same round 1 match?
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#489 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2013 11:46:47 PM | message detail
I doubt Lightning is that much weaker than when we saw her last.

Heck, she might not even be weaker at all.
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#490 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/8/2013 11:55:02 PM | message detail
It goes against my Contest instincts to take Donkey Kong in a debatable match. Guy is literally the mascot for choking in these things! I want to see who the 3rd person is before I go with Lightning
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#491 | -Zelmor- | Posted 6/9/2013 2:52:29 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...

Speaking of which, could we see the first instance of "character design SFF" with Samus and Isaac Clarke from Dead Space in the same round 1 match?


That Power Suit/Advance Suit SFF.
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#492 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 6/9/2013 3:06:24 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, could we see the first instance of "spiritual successor SFF" with KOS-MOS and Dunban from Xenoblade Chronicles in the same round 1 match?
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#493 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/9/2013 3:29:51 AM | message detail
The time when we start coming up with the most awesome ways for SFF to occur! Actually KOS-MOS and Dunban could probably hurt each other with Cult RPG LFF.

Also I just realized that this is the first time Kerrigan is showing up after her "win" in that GameSpot contest. Lol Gamespot.
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#494 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 6/9/2013 4:30:50 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
The time when we start coming up with the most awesome ways for SFF to occur! Actually KOS-MOS and Dunban could probably hurt each other with Cult RPG LFF.

Also I just realized that this is the first time Kerrigan is showing up after her "win" in that GameSpot contest. Lol Gamespot.


I still think any of the iconic units from that game (siege tank, carrier, hydralisk, zealot) easily trumps Kerrigan.
#495 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/9/2013 4:47:02 AM | message detail
People may be lukewarm about FF13, but the one thing that usually sticks out is that many people actually like Lightning as a character. I think she'll get by Donkey Kong with ease and has a chance to exploit potential LFF between Zelda and Charizard, two pretty damn powerful characters.
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#496 | transience | Posted 6/9/2013 5:19:17 AM | message detail
just don't give her that horrid lightning returns art.
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#497 | special_sauce | Posted 6/9/2013 9:27:18 AM | message detail
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#498 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/9/2013 9:33:12 AM | message detail
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#499 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 6/9/2013 9:35:08 AM | message detail
So...
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#500 | Nanis23 | Posted 6/9/2013 9:35:24 AM | message detail
500hh