Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1052

#301 | __Smurf__ | Posted 6/6/2013 1:25:43 AM | message detail
Annoying to see 3-ways, 1v1 in 12 hour matches was a format everyone enjoyed. We haven't had a proper cb since 2010 so there was little danger of people being jaded of the format and needing a change. Once again the contest will be more about leeches than character strength, still fun but why? The extra characters who'd spill over from 128 would be nice if they all had virtually no chance of competing in a match oddswise with only 1 from 3 progressing. Don't think anyone wanted this.

Would hope this slow reveal isn't too slow, would be poor planning to miss the opportunity of advertising the bracket and contest during the high E3 traffic just for the benefit of people already eagerly anticipating the contest.
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#302 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2013 2:00:52 AM | message detail
Eh, I doubt he'll take more than a week with the reveals. Luster's timetable seems pretty reasonable.
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#303 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 6/6/2013 3:45:47 AM | message detail
Pretty interesting format with the 3-ways and the Noble Nine.

Also, I might be late on this, but no way is Link weaker than ever. If you want to argue that it is, using Twilight Princess as a reason is dumb. You remember GotD right? That game was a total monster.
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#304 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 4:41:04 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Eh, I doubt he'll take more than a week with the reveals. Luster's timetable seems pretty reasonable.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66317864/746636992

That's my timetable prediction. Of course, that prediction includes the weekends. If Bacon chooses not to reveal the characters over the weekend, we have to wait another 2 days for all the characters to be revealed.
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#305 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/6/2013 4:49:51 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Pretty interesting format with the 3-ways and the Noble Nine.

Also, I might be late on this, but no way is Link weaker than ever. If you want to argue that it is, using Twilight Princess as a reason is dumb. You remember GotD right? That game was a total monster.


I can agree here, however I feel that Twilight Princess (and Brawl, and MGS4) is constantly weakening since it has largely fallen off since its release on most of the Internet. I honestly get the vibe that many of its fans are drones. Same with Brawl. Probably why those games seem like such easy hate targets (Brawl doesn't deserve it at least, IMO).
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#306 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 6/6/2013 5:58:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
pjbasis posted...
I didn't start posting here till Charizard was finishing up his run.

What a shame GotD was the only good thing I saw live.


Wait, you've been here for less time than I have? I never realized that.

And Leon, what are you talking about; Kirby lost to a non-NNer in every pre-4way contest. Never an absolute fodder--probably the weakest character he's lost to was Jill in 2002, and she wasn't considered nearly as weak at the time as she is now--but it was always a Bowser or a Squall that knocked him out. In fact, thanks to fourway shenanigans in 2008 (the inexplicable knockout of Sonic, a meaningless third-place exit over a Cloud-SFFed Sephiroth), I think Kirby actually technically has a .500 record against the Noble Nine overall, just because of how infrequently he faced them. (And that's including Sonic's second revenge victory in Rivalry Rumble.)

Edit: Okay, no, I was way off about the overall record--though it's probably still better than anyone outside the Noble Nine except L-block (who probably is over .500, since he got to take them down three at a time in 2007) and Missingno. (1-1). But I was right about Kirby not facing them even once in the pre-4ways era. He lost to Jill in '02, Alucard in '03, Squall in '04, Bowser in '05, and Luigi in '06.
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#307 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 7:03:02 AM | message detail
I finally got around to updating the wiki page for Daily Poll Trends.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

Before my update, the page was updated only once since our first contest with 12-hour matches. That page had absolutely no information about 12-hour match trends, so I updated the page to include 12-hour matches.
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#308 | superange128 | Posted 6/6/2013 7:10:00 AM | message detail
What do you guys think of this
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66371243
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#309 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 6/6/2013 7:27:20 AM | message detail
i don't know. The way things are, the difference between second and third place is meaningless. The bottom two could be having an exciting match, but no one will care because first place is already decided.

So surprise twist! For the Battle Challenge, instead of picking the winner, you have to pick second place!
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#310 | tgs2 | Posted 6/6/2013 7:36:50 AM | message detail
I feel like we could do with bonus points for correctly predicting the Trifecta in each match to break up any potential tiebreaks at the end.
#311 | pyresword | Posted 6/6/2013 9:45:16 AM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
So surprise twist! For the Battle Challenge, instead of picking the winner, you have to pick second place!


This is actually a pretty good idea; I would care about the battle challenge if this were the case.

Someone should recommend this to Allen.
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#312 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 6/6/2013 9:54:46 AM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Let's hope Bacon put Squall in Crono's division. Crono vs Squall would be fun, regardless of the outcome, either of them would aid Snake in beating Cloud.


I feel as though that can only backfire. I highly doubt that Crono still has anywhere near the strength to take Squall in a 1v1, but with a decent enough third member, he might just have enough to LFF Squall into second against a character that either one could beat 1v1.
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#313 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 6/6/2013 10:02:56 AM | message detail | (edited)
Good point, but the overlapping between Squall and Crono shouldn't be that big imo. Crono/Vincent didn't look too bad against Samus in the fourways (Pikachu probably leeched her alittle but still .....)
#314 | LOLContests | Posted 6/6/2013 10:09:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
i don't know. The way things are, the difference between second and third place is meaningless. The bottom two could be having an exciting match, but no one will care because first place is already decided.

So surprise twist! For the Battle Challenge, instead of picking the winner, you have to pick second place!


I could get behind this! Combines the best part of 4 ways while taking away the worst (a battle for first means something now, albeit a battle between second and third would still be a little anticlimactic) I could really see this working out!

Sample scoring:

Say you predict A > B > C

IF if goes A > B > C you get 3 points (1 for A > B, 1 for A > C, 1 for B > C)
IF it goes A > C > B you get 2 points (1 for A > B, 1 for A > C)
IF it goes B > A > C you get 2 points (1 for A > C,1 for B > C)
IF it goes B > C > A you get 1 point (1 for B > C)
IF it goes C > A > B you get 1 point (1 for A > B)
IF it goes C > B > A you get 0 points

Edit: Maybe give 1 extra point for correctly predicting the winner as well.
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#315 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/6/2013 10:29:52 AM | message detail
Here's what the 2010 bracket would look like using a 3-way format. Due to lack of characters the bracket starts in the second round and there is 8 divisions instead of 9. If a 10-16 seed in the 2010 contest won their first round match they would be included instead of their opponent.

Division 1

Link
Amaterasu
Magus

The Boss
Pokemon Trainer Red
Alucard

Luigi
Mega Man X
Weighted Companion Cube

Division 2

Sonic the Hedgehog
GlaDOS
Knuckles the Echidna

Altair
Ganondorf
Cecil Harvey

Kirby
Ken
Vivi

Division 3

Mario
Zack Fair
Miles Edgeworth

Master Chief
Zidane Tribal
Big Boss

Mega Man
Ike
Ryu Hayabusa

Division 4

Sora
Isaac
Neku Sakuraba

Kratos
Kefka
Laharl

L-Block
Bowser
Charizard

Division 5

Samus Aran
Ratchet
Jill Valentine

Ezio
Roxas
Niko Bellic

Jecht
Sub-Zero
Zelda

Division 6

Cloud Strife
Sackboy
Captain MacMillan

Dante
Riku
Chris Redfield

Leon Kennedy
Captain Falcon
Ryu

Division 7

Solid Snake
Zero
Fox McCloud

Squall Leonhart
Pikachu
Lloyd Irving

Auron
Commander Shepard
Terra Branford

Division 8

Sephiroth
Ness
Guybrush Threepwood

Gordon Freeman
Yoshi
Vincent Valentine

Big Daddy
Missingno
Tifa Lockheart
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#316 | superange128 | Posted 6/6/2013 10:31:13 AM | message detail
poor Amaterasu and Magus
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#317 | superange128 | Posted 6/6/2013 10:38:32 AM | message detail
anyway going off those these would be potentially interesting R1 matches

Division 1

Mostly for Red vs Alucard
The Boss
Pokemon Trainer Red
Alucard

How much "joke" characters will do and how MMX deals with a strong Nintendo character that isn't noble 9
Luigi
Mega Man X
Weighted Companion Cube

BB would most likely win but there's very slight upset potential maybe?
Master Chief
Zidane Tribal
Big Boss

Kratos vs Kefka could be fun
Kratos
Kefka
Laharl

Now THIS would be a very debated match
L-Block
Bowser
Charizard

Mostly to see how much stronger Ezio is over these guys
Ezio
Roxas
Niko Bellic

Zelda most likely wins but Subby could look good
Jecht
Sub-Zero
Zelda

If this match didn't already happen I would have considered it more interesting
Leon Kennedy
Captain Falcon
Ryu

Squall vs Pikachu seems to be a somewhat debatable match
Squall Leonhart
Pikachu
Lloyd Irving

could Terra bring down Auron enough?
Auron
Commander Shepard
Terra Branford

Yoshi vs Vincent could be good
Gordon Freeman
Yoshi
Vincent Valentine

I wonder how Missingno would do in a 3-ways
Big Daddy
Missingno
Tifa Lockheart

There are a bunch of matches I would've included if 2nd place mattered
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#318 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/6/2013 10:38:33 AM | message detail
At least Magus and Ammy are in that bracket.

Poor Crono!
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#319 | -Tofa7- | Posted 6/6/2013 10:38:44 AM | message detail
LFF: The Contest.

It is an interesting concept, and it could have been a lot worse, but just from the 1 seeds the final rounds aren't shaping up to be anything special.

Mario doesn't get a shot at Cloud. Samus doesn't get a shot at Sephiroth.

Something like this would be so much better IMO:

Link
Snake
Sonic

Cloud
Mario
Mega Man

Samus
Sephiroth
Crono

Sure, there's the possibility of a boring as hell final (Link vs Mario vs Samus ugh), but at least the 3 semi finals are really interesting.

You could even feed Mega Man and Sonic to Link in the semi-final (that match would remain interesting for the fight for 2nd place) and suddenly you can add Snake to one of the other semi finals giving us a really god tier match.

Could be way off the mark here, but that's my 2c.
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#320 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/6/2013 11:32:25 AM | message detail
There are some people that feel Samus has a decent chance on Mario in a direct match, maybe Mega Man might pull off an upset, he got 48% on Samus with Yoshi in the poll in 2007.

The more I look at it the more it seems to be SBAllen's last ditch attempt to make Link lose, he's prevented two square characters from reaching the finals and essentially made one semifinal into a Nintendo-fest.
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#321 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/6/2013 1:22:14 PM | message detail
On the plus side, maybe we can finally get a no-Link 12 hour 1v1 128 entrant contest next year once the cookie cutter final is done this time?
#322 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2013 1:24:00 PM | message detail
We want the darn 2 and 3 seeds
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#323 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 1:38:38 PM | message detail
2 seeds have been revealed

Commander Shepard in Link's division
Phoenix Wright in Sonic's division
Luigi in Sephiroth's division
GlaDOS in Snake's division
Dante in Cloud's division
Sora in Crono's division
Ezio in Samus's division
Squall in Mario's division
Zero in Mega Man's division
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#324 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2013 1:39:11 PM | message detail
2 seeds announced

Phoenix in Sonic's division
Zero in Mega Man's division
Sora in Crono's division

None of the heavy hitters put in there, although really, Squall is the only near elite in that group and got put in Mario's division. Better than Snake or Cloud's, but it means he doesn't really get a shot at beating a Noble Niner.
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#325 | XIII_rocks | Posted 6/6/2013 1:39:27 PM | message detail
SHEPARD YES!
PHOENIX WRIGHT AS A 2 SEED!
GLADOS AS A 2 SEED!
EZIO AS A 2 SEED! F***ING AWESOME
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#326 | XIII_rocks | Posted 6/6/2013 1:40:10 PM | message detail
Sora in Crono's division? Great stuff!
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#327 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2013 1:40:52 PM | message detail
Commander Shepard has destroyed Reapers, but now his greatest challenge lies ahead:

Defeat Link
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#328 | Bospsychopaat | Posted 6/6/2013 1:41:53 PM | message detail
Just noticed: this contest will also be the quotes contest?
#329 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/6/2013 1:48:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
Looks kinda bad, but then again it'd be hard to make the match-ups much better. At least Crono/Sora might be interesting (though I'd prefer Crono/Squall, since Squall might have actually won that one).

e: Also, come on Luigi > Sephiroth.
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#330 | swirIdude | Posted 6/6/2013 1:48:17 PM | message detail
Mega Man and Zero in the same division? Stop this, SBAllen!
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#331 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/6/2013 1:48:49 PM | message detail
C'mon Bacon put Ganondorf or Bowser in Mario's division so I can take the completely improbable upset
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#332 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 1:49:55 PM | message detail
Crono/Sora will happen in round 3, which should be a 24-hour match. I think we'll get 12-hour matches in the first 2 rounds, so Crono won't be at a disadvantage when he faces Sora.
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#333 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/6/2013 1:57:48 PM | message detail
Well, at least all of these 2 seeds could beat probably beat Nathan Drake!
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#334 | transience | Posted 6/6/2013 1:59:22 PM | message detail
oh god live reactions

Shepard is going to be total casual bait, and could be fun as a 2 seed. the damage won't be too bad though because Link.

Phoenix is way overseeded, obviously, and will be fun to see him try to win a first round matchup on his own vs. two other low-tier characters. (anyone else get the sense that only the first few seeds will be ranked and the rest just random?)

Luigi is a good 2 seed. hopefully he gets some good competition and doesn't just beat everyone easily before running into Sephiroth.

Glados, same as Phoenix.

Dante's properly seeded. I hope he gets someone of equivalent strength like Zelda or something.

Crono/Sora -- anyone going for Sora here? or think that Sora and Crono will overlap and a third can win? I'm backing Crono unless there's a real reason to pick against him. Sora isn't good enough for me despite 2006 or whatever.

Ezio, same as Shepard. I hope Samus gets properly challenged because I'm pretty down on her.

Squall avoids Snake, finally. it'd be better if he got Sonic or Mega Man, but eh.

Mega Man/Zero is lame but we all knew that. Mega Man/Zero/Bowser or something could be pretty enticing as an upset.
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#335 | tgs2 | Posted 6/6/2013 2:02:56 PM | message detail
Sora can possibly beat Crono if this contest is after E3 and there's any KH3 news + something overlapping with Crono. My 2 cents there
#336 | LOLContests | Posted 6/6/2013 2:03:53 PM | message detail
Surprised Zero got a 2 seed. He's never been great or anything with seeding.
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#337 | Jakyl25 | Posted 6/6/2013 2:05:20 PM | message detail | (edited)
tgs2 posted...
Sora can possibly beat Crono if this contest is after E3 and there's any KH3 news + something overlapping with Crono. My 2 cents there



E3 will be over already in a week from now so I'd say there's a pretty strong chance their match won't be until after. <_<
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#338 | charmander6000 | Posted 6/6/2013 2:04:54 PM | message detail
Mega Man/Zero/Tifa or Vincent would be tempting...
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#339 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/6/2013 2:09:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
2 seeds announced

Phoenix in Sonic's division
Zero in Mega Man's division
Sora in Crono's division

None of the heavy hitters put in there, although really, Squall is the only near elite in that group and got put in Mario's division. Better than Snake or Cloud's, but it means he doesn't really get a shot at beating a Noble Niner.


What if a pokemon is a 3 seed? Or maybe Bowser? Totally taking the upset if I see it, gotta go for the longshots!
#340 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 2:08:13 PM | message detail
Allen just changed Sephiroth's quote. Here's the new quote for Sephiroth:

"You are just a puppet. You have no heart and cannot feel any pain."
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#341 | HaRRicH | Posted 6/6/2013 2:09:41 PM | message detail
I like Crono/Sora as a match. Squall/Vincent/Tifa have found themselves as board-favorites over Crono now, and none of them are THAT much stronger than Sora.

Now throw Auron in as a 3-seed.....
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#342 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/6/2013 2:13:23 PM | message detail
Mega Man/Zero/Tifa or Vincent would be tempting...

More like a lock for FFVII winning.

COMPANION CUBE LOL
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#343 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/6/2013 2:14:01 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
I like Crono/Sora as a match. Squall/Vincent/Tifa have found themselves as board-favorites over Crono now, and none of them are THAT much stronger than Sora.

Now throw Auron in as a 3-seed.....


And Crono escapes the division? You couldn't find a single more hurtful entrant for Sora than Auron - his big boost was KH2. Stick another Near Elite there instead IMO.
#344 | transience | Posted 6/6/2013 2:16:33 PM | message detail
Crono/Sora/Tifa. who wins?
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#345 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 6/6/2013 2:16:41 PM | message detail
Well, if Vincent gets thrown into Crono's division as a 3 seed, he might be in trouble.
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#346 | Emporer_Kazbar | Posted 6/6/2013 2:17:22 PM | message detail
Luigi's quote should have been "Agaboogidibao", or whatever it is he says in M&L.
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#347 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 6/6/2013 2:27:00 PM | message detail
Man, how lame is that. We get to see Mega Man and Zero a third time, the second time that they are put in a multi-way poll together.

Suck it Bacon
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#348 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 6/6/2013 2:57:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
-LusterSoldier- posted...
2 seeds have been revealed

Commander Shepard in Link's division
Phoenix Wright in Sonic's division
Luigi in Sephiroth's division
GlaDOS in Snake's division
Dante in Cloud's division
Sora in Crono's division
Ezio in Samus's division
Squall in Mario's division
Zero in Mega Man's division


...He seriously put Zero in Mega Man's division? So much for this being a "celebration of the Noble Nine". Whoever comes out of the 3-4-7 matchup in that division's obviously going to take LFFed Mega Man.

...Unless he puts X in that range. Which seems to be about right for Bacon.

As for the others--I expected GLaDOS's seed to go up even more from her 6-seed last time since that was pre-Portal 2, but a 2-seed was far beyond my expectations. Could be interesting, though.

I thought Phoenix had a chance at a high seed, so this doesn't really surprise me. He was a 3 last time and he and Edgey were a top seed in Rivalry Rumble. Only problem is, his actual contest performances usually fail to match his seeds. He'd need to find some highly favorable SFF splits to exploit, and unfortunately for him, there's nothing strong enough to reach Round 3 that could give him an edge over Sonic.

Mildly surprised that AC is still getting characters 2-seeds. Even more surprised that Dante, whom everyone seems to hate ever since his series was rebooted, actually got one. I'd say that they were obviously trying to give Cloud a soft enough path that he could actually face a fellow Square character in the 3-seed spot and still advance, but LOL at anyone who actually thinks Dante will be able to handle the 5-seed, unless it's another of Board 8's vanity picks like Chester or Yuri Lowell. (Although in a second-round threepack with Dante as the 2 and Yuri as the 5, my instinct is to go with the 8-11 winner. Not Chester, because he'll probably lose to the 14-seed in R1)
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#349 | ffmasterjose | Posted 6/6/2013 2:28:42 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Allen just changed Sephiroth's quote. Here's the new quote for Sephiroth:

"You are just a puppet. You have no heart and cannot feel any pain."


He OBVIOUSLY read my post about how it was wrong for his quote to be from Advent Children!
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#350 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 6/6/2013 2:33:05 PM | message detail
transience posted...
Crono/Sora/Tifa. who wins?


Oooooh, tricky. Technically Tifa is New Square too but her votebase is different (I think? I recall she had different trends from every other FF7 character). Tentatively Tifa, but it's gonna be close for all three.