Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1052

#1 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/30/2013 8:02:44 AM | message detail
CLOSE THE DAMN NOMINATION FORM

Also - WE WANT THE DAMN BRACKET

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | pjbasis | Posted 5/30/2013 8:07:14 AM | message detail
I just really hope Snake gets to go up against Nintendo this year.

And Squall gets Crono.
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#3 | JDTAY | Posted 5/30/2013 8:10:02 AM | message detail
a tisket a tasket
we want the damn bracket
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#4 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/30/2013 9:06:53 AM | message detail
As long as the lower tier N9 gets challenged by the near elites and Big Boss being put in a debatable match, I have no qualm with whatever bracket he's throwing at us.
#5 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2013 9:07:55 AM | message detail
We'll have to see what this twist even is before we can even speculate on what we want to see.
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#6 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/30/2013 9:11:25 AM | message detail
True i suppose, but even then the lower tier N9 can still be challenged by the near elites in whichever format it is. (Unless it's some hindering LFF in mutli-ways polls)
#7 | spooky96 | Posted 5/30/2013 9:22:47 AM | message detail
Those near Elites would be Vincent, Squall, Charizard and uhm what Bowser I guess?
#8 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:26:22 AM | message detail
I just got this response from Bacon earlier when I told him to take the nomination form down:


Message From GameFAQs on 05/30/2013

Doesn't matter, the nominations are locked internally.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#9 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2013 9:26:45 AM | message detail
Vincent, Squall, Tifa, Charizard, Bowser, Ganondorf, Missingno, Zelda, Auron, Mega Man X, all to varying extents.

Of course, we don't know exactly how strong any of them are going to be now, but that'll make it fun if we do see it.
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#10 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2013 9:27:12 AM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #008
Message From GameFAQs on 05/30/2013

Doesn't matter, the nominations are locked internally.


So, what, does this mean that even if people are submitting noms, they don't count?
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#11 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 9:28:02 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I just got this response from Bacon earlier when I told him to take the nomination form down:


Message From GameFAQs on 05/30/2013

Doesn't matter, the nominations are locked internally.


haha so everyone trying to make last minute nomination drives past Noon PST were pretty much doing nothing?
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#12 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:28:34 AM | message detail
That's my first guess as well. You can still submit noms, but I'm guessing they aren't going to count.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#13 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:29:21 AM | message detail
superange128 posted...
haha so everyone trying to make last minute nomination drives past Noon PST were pretty much doing nothing?


I assume he locked the nominations at the same time he took the link off the front page.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#14 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2013 9:30:03 AM | message detail
I guess someone should make a topic letting all the non-Stats Topic readers know about this sudden twist.
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#15 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:32:58 AM | message detail
I just made a post in the stickied topic on this board earlier, although it would help if there was a separate topic as well.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#16 | hylianknight3 | Posted 5/30/2013 9:35:47 AM | message detail
Well, that kind of sucks. I picked up a good number of nominations from slackers yesterday. :(
#17 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/30/2013 9:36:06 AM | message detail
I made a topic for you Luster
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#18 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:42:23 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/66305121/745772827

I guess he closed the nominations at the same time he removed the link from the front page. Figuring the exact time nominations were closed is difficult, because I know TRE keeps track of how long nominations were open for. For the purpose of figuring out how long nominations were open for, I would declare 6:23:00 PM EST as the exact time that should be used to calculate the total amount of time nominations were open for.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#19 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:57:08 AM | message detail
Although maybe he did close nominations exactly at 3:00:00 PM EST, so I guess it would be better to use that time to calculate the total amount of time nominations were open for.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#20 | ahirsch101 | Posted 5/30/2013 10:04:29 AM | message detail
Just wondering if there were any thoughts on whether he would have started any vote-ins by now if nominations closed on Tuesday? How quickly did vote-ins start the last time?
#21 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 10:08:57 AM | message detail
I know for Character Battle 2010, the vote-ins started several hours after nominations were closed. I'm not sure about GOTD and Rivalry Rumble though.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#22 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/30/2013 10:09:35 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure vote-ins started the day after noms closed in all cases, so I'd assume we're not having them at this point.
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#23 | tgs2 | Posted 5/30/2013 10:10:11 AM | message detail
If it's true and we are getting 200+ characters in this one, I doubt there will be vote-ins at all.
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#24 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 10:10:33 AM | message detail
Considering tomorrow's poll will be "Which scheduled June release are you most looking forward to?", it's unlikely we're getting vote-ins.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#25 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 10:47:20 AM | message detail
How do you find out what polls are?
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#26 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 10:49:09 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4736

Look at the dates that show up on that page when you look under "See other results for this poll:".
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#27 | JDTAY | Posted 5/30/2013 2:35:47 PM | message detail
Oh man, it's already been a year since Pokemon Conquest? >_>
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#28 | XIII_rocks | Posted 5/30/2013 3:13:13 PM | message detail
When is it acceptable to start demanding the damn bracket?
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#29 | pjbasis | Posted 5/30/2013 3:20:01 PM | message detail
#30 | Ngamer64 | Posted 5/30/2013 3:56:46 PM | message detail
He couldn't take the 5 seconds to unsticky the topic or 10 seconds to pull the nomination form offline? Honestly?

Honestly.

EDIT - Luster can you confirm a final "official" nomination count of 25,602?
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#31 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 4:02:34 PM | message detail
Getting an official nomination count is even more difficult just because he never pulled the nomination form offline and we don't know exactly when he locked the nominations. If he locked nominations at 3:00 PM EST like he said last Friday, than the official nomination count was 25,602 at 2:58 PM EST. It's definitely possible that there could have been 3 or 4 more nominations during those final 2 minutes, but I feel confident that is the final nomination count if the nominations were locked at 3:00 PM EST.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#32 | XIII_rocks | Posted 5/30/2013 4:15:17 PM | message detail
What is the normal nominations-closing-to-bracket-release turnaround time? I forget.

Hopefully he releases it tomorrow, otherwise it'll be Monday at the earliest. If he truly closed nominations on Tuesday at noon PST as he said, then he might just have had enough time to come up with one.
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#33 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/30/2013 4:18:19 PM | message detail
Gap between nominations closing and bracket going up:
Villains Contest - 3 hours, 51 minutes
Character Battle IV - 6 days, 6 hours, 35 minutes
Best. Series. Ever. - 1 hours, 59 minutes
Character Battle V - 7 days, 21 hours, 57 minutes
Quotes Contest - We're still waiting
Character Battle VI - 2 hours, 58 minutes
Character Battle VII - 21 hours, 18 minutes
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - 3 days, 21 hours, 58 minutes
Character Battle VIII - 7 days, 19 hours, 14 minutes
Game of the Decade - 14 days, 19 hours, 41 minutes
Rivalry Rumble - 4 days, 17 minutes
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Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#34 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 4:23:14 PM | message detail
And the only reason for the last 3 bing longer than usual was because of vote-ins

Not sure what was up with CB4 or CB5
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#35 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 4:25:36 PM | message detail
The last 3 contests all had vote-ins. This contest probably won't have vote-ins. If we don't start vote-ins by June 5th, we can safely assume there will be no vote-ins because there will be some E3 polls before the first press conferences happen.
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#36 | XIII_rocks | Posted 5/30/2013 4:56:23 PM | message detail | (edited)
oh wow, shorter than I thought. It really is a constant refresh deal

I don't suppose you have the times of release, TRE?
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#37 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/30/2013 5:26:10 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
oh wow, shorter than I thought. It really is a constant refresh deal

I don't suppose you have the times of release, TRE?


Villains Contest - 4/11/2005 10:35pm PST
Character Battle IV - 6/28/2005 8:21pm PST
Best. Series. Ever. - 6/8/2006 4:27:55pm PDT
Character Battle V - 8/26/2006 12:51pm PDT
Quotes Contest - ?
Character Battle VI - 8/14/2007 3:44pm PDT
Character Battle VII - 8/21/2008 12:55pm PDT
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - 3/6/2009 2:58pm PST
Character Battle VIII - 12/15/2009 12:04pm PST
Game of the Decade - 10/05/2010 12:38pm PDT
Rivalry Rumble - 10/07/2011 1:55pm PDT
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Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#38 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 5:34:23 PM | message detail
To give a little more detail...

Villains Contest - MONDAY 4/11/2005 10:35pm PST
Character Battle IV - TUESDAY 6/28/2005 8:21pm PST
Best. Series. Ever. - THURSDAY 6/8/2006 4:27:55pm PDT
Character Battle V - SATURDAY 8/26/2006 12:51pm PDT
Quotes Contest - ?
Character Battle VI - TUESDAY 8/14/2007 3:44pm PDT
Character Battle VII - THURSDAY 8/21/2008 12:55pm PDT
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - FRIDAY 3/6/2009 2:58pm PST
Character Battle VIII - TUESDAY 12/15/2009 12:04pm PST
Game of the Decade - TUESDAY 10/05/2010 12:38pm PDT
Rivalry Rumble - FRIDAY 10/07/2011 1:55pm PDT
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#39 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 5:36:25 PM | message detail
Only one contest has ever had the bracket revealed on Monday. Interesting. 2 contests had the bracket revealed on Friday, but Tuesday is most common with 4 contests.
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#40 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 5:40:50 PM | message detail
If we only go off Allen Contests it's two Fridays, Two Tuesdays, 1 Thursday
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#41 | XIII_rocks | Posted 5/30/2013 6:03:32 PM | message detail
TRE I was only half-serious. Holy crap. Thanks.
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#42 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 6:14:16 PM | message detail
If the bracket comes on Tuesday, it would be possible to do 3 days of vote-ins (Saturday, Sunday, Monday) despite the fact tomorrow's poll is not going to be a vote-in.
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#43 | pjbasis | Posted 5/30/2013 6:16:12 PM | message detail
What's the difference in time between nominations closing and the vote-ins starting?
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#44 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 6:20:52 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#45 | superange128 | Posted 5/30/2013 6:23:26 PM | message detail
Usually it was either the same night they closed or the night after if I'm not mistaken?
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#46 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 6:24:51 PM | message detail
For Character Battle 2010, our first vote-ins happened just a few hours after nominations were closed. I don't know about GOTD and Rivalry Rumble, though.
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#47 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/30/2013 9:15:42 PM | message detail
In today's poll, Ride to Hell: Retribution is in the running to get one of the worst percentages by a single poll option. The worst percentage all time was 0.06%.
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#48 | -LusterSoldier- (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/31/2013 2:20:22 AM | message detail
Ah, damn. Ride to Hell: Retribution is up to 0.40% now after starting out very poorly. It's no longer in the running for getting one of the worst percentages by a single poll option.
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#49 | XIII_socks | Posted 5/31/2013 3:08:02 AM | message detail
I don't think we get a bracket until Allen removes the sticky, at least
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#50 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/31/2013 3:27:04 AM | message detail
Today's the day.