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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1051 ("Holy Crap An Actual Contest" Edition)

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#351 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 3:31:34 PM | message detail
EPIC POLL ALERT

Another age poll will happen in the near future. It will be another weekend poll and those polls rarely ever happen on a weekend, so I'm lucky that there have been 2 age polls in a row that are on the weekend. Last year's age poll was also on a weekend. It was the only poll in 2012 to get above 70000 votes. Around the time of the 2012 age poll, we had on average about 9000 more votes in the polls than our average vote totals right now. When you compare average vote totals right now to the average vote totals around the time of the 2012 age poll, I predict 57543 votes in this year's age poll.


Polls for the next several days:

5/25/2013 - Over the next few years, which company do you think will have the biggest impact on gaming?
5/26/2013 - How old are you?
5/27/2013 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
5/28/2013 - Do you ever play games a lot longer than you normally would just to get more Achievements or Trophies?
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#352 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 5/24/2013 3:35:25 PM | message detail
Time to start following the stats topic again!
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#353 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2013 8:17:27 PM | message detail
#354 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 10:34:56 PM | message detail
That would be true for 3 of those polls. Only the age poll is epic.
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#355 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/24/2013 10:36:19 PM | message detail
The age poll is easily the worst one.
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#356 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 6:47:27 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1609
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1637

So, I noticed a mistake with the second poll listed above. Notice how it says "Secret of Mana" in the poll question, but it says "Super Mario RPG" in the second poll option. Secret of Mana was defeated by Chrono Trigger in round 1 already. I will send in a feedback ticket to get Bacon to correct the mistake. I just recently noticed the mistake in Chrono Trigger's round 2 match for the 2004 Games Contest.


This mistake has existed since 2004, based on this archived page from the Wayback Machine:

http://web.archive.org/web/20040621115606/http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1637
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#357 | HaRRicH | Posted 5/25/2013 6:56:02 AM | message detail
I forget if it was SB or CJay, but that was brought up before and the admin didn't want to bother adjusting previous polls.
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#358 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 6:58:18 AM | message detail
If it was CJayC that said that, I bet I might have some luck getting SB to fix it instead.
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#359 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/25/2013 5:56:19 PM | message detail
Looks like Bacon fixed it.

Congratulations, Luster!
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#360 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 7:27:50 PM | message detail
How strange, Bacon handled my feedback ticket on the weekend. This is the first time I've seen him handle the feedback tickets on the weekend.
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#361 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 8:30:00 PM | message detail
With 30 minutes left until the age poll starts, I will say that I am going to keep an eye on the average age of the voters in this poll. Here is a list of weighted averages for the past age polls:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Average_Age

I already have the page set up so I can fill in the average once this poll has been completed. Between 2012 and 2013, the average age only increased by about 6 months, which is a smaller than the 1 year increase between 2011 and 2012.
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#362 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 9:06:40 PM | message detail
At the freeze in last year's poll - The average age was 22.27
At the freeze in today's poll - The average age is currently 23.43
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#363 | superange128 | Posted 5/25/2013 9:38:07 PM | message detail
I'm going to guess 5/29 is going to be the first vote-in?
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#364 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/25/2013 9:40:22 PM | message detail
Hopefully we skip vote-ins altogether. They're pretty unnecessary with how many characters we've got.
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#365 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 5/25/2013 9:41:30 PM | message detail
Yeah, if we get vote-ins with 200+ characters then the vote-ins would be absolute fodder that probably isn't even on the nomination tally.

Like, Sandal level stuff.
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#366 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 9:49:46 PM | message detail | (edited)
If Bacon closes noms on Tuesday, our first vote-in should be on 5/29. Unless he decides to run a poll for "Which scheduled May release are you most looking forward to?" on 5/29, which would mean the first vote in will be on 5/30.

But as Leon said, vote-ins are unnecessary since we'll have over 200 characters. If we did vote-ins, expect to see some Tanner-level characters in the vote-ins.


Current nomination total - 24209

There's certainly enough time to break 25000 noms since Memorial Day gives us one extra day of nominations.
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#367 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/25/2013 10:02:08 PM | message detail
17-20 was unable to maintain a lead over 25-28 until the end of the first hour. 25-28 took the lead over 17-20 on the last update of the first hour.

At the same point in time compared to last year's poll, we're about 700 votes behind already. But this poll is definitely breaking 50000 votes and might even have a chance at 60000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#368 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2013 12:27:21 AM | message detail
As of 3:25 AM, the average age of GameFAQs users has just reached 24.00 and it's going to continue rising as the night vote goes on. Then I expect the average age to drop during the morning vote and day vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
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#369 | spooky96 | Posted 5/26/2013 1:18:15 AM | message detail
From where are you guys getting this info - the amount of nominations for the character battle?
#370 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2013 1:31:03 AM | message detail
To view the current number of nominations, you have to send in a nomination first. If you ran out of space for nominations, delete someone from your nomination list and renominate the same character again. After sending in a nomination, you have to view the source code for the page. In the source code for the nomination page, look for the nomination you just submitted. You will see something that looks like this in the source code:

<input type="radio" value="24264" name="del">

The value listed in the above line is the current nomination total.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#371 | spooky96 | Posted 5/26/2013 1:36:23 AM | message detail
Oh I see alright thanks Luster.
#372 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 5/26/2013 5:36:55 AM | message detail
True/False: Luster's been looking more forward to an age poll than a new contest.
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#373 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2013 9:02:36 AM | message detail
XD at Wylvane. But anyways, that's false. I am definitely looking forward to the new contest more than the age poll.


At the same point in time, this poll is only 46 votes ahead of the Link/Cloud match in Rivalry Rumble (31410 votes vs. 31456 in today's poll). This poll has a chance at breaking 59000 votes, but it's pretty unlikely we'll reach 60000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#374 | Advokaiser | Posted 5/26/2013 7:30:38 PM | message detail
bump
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#375 | abdou | Posted 5/26/2013 7:57:37 PM | message detail
468 users are under 9 lol ..I wonder what % of that are joke votes
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#376 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2013 10:21:52 PM | message detail
Now that the age poll is over with, I just updated the Board 8 wiki page with the most recent average age:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Average_Age

GameFAQs now has an average age of 24.40, our biggest increase in a single year. Less than 7% of the site is under the age of 17. If we included 17 year olds as part of the ASV (17 year olds had to vote for 17-20), we'd probably end up with about 10% of the site under the age of 18. When you have about 10% of the site under the age of 18, that simply isn't enough to sustain the traditional ASV time period on the weekdays. If our average age continues to increase, our voting population under 18 will just continue decreasing. Next year when we get this poll, we're probably looking at less than 8% of the site under the age of 18.

As for the poll itself, we got some pretty good vote totals yet again. At the half-way point in this poll, I thought we would break 58000 votes because this poll had almost the same number of votes as Link/Cloud in Rivalry Rumble at the half-way point. Vote totals really slowed down during the second half of the poll and this poll ended up finishing about 4000 votes behind Link/Cloud during the second half alone. During the day, I noticed we were having trouble just getting above 4000 online users.

The Geolocation results tells the real story behind the lack of votes during the second half of this poll. There was a very low turnout from North America - just 73.18% of the total votes in this poll. If we had gotten an extra 4000 votes from North America, the turnout from North America would have been 75.01%, which is in line with the average turnout from North America in these polls. This year alone, the average North American turnout is 75.33%.

Trend charts and poll updates coming up soon.
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#377 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 5/26/2013 10:28:23 PM | message detail
I wonder if the reason for the low %NA turnout is because the poll often has some aspect that is NA specific, therefore it gets a disproportionately low % response from non-NA users. When you get a poll about something completely universal like age, you get a lower %NA turnout because the % response rate evens out across the world.
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#378 | spooky96 | Posted 5/26/2013 10:29:16 PM | message detail
It was so depressing to vote for 13-16 because in 2 month's time I'll be 17 >_>
#379 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/26/2013 10:55:33 PM | message detail | (edited)
Kotetsu534 posted...
I wonder if the reason for the low %NA turnout is because the poll often has some aspect that is NA specific, therefore it gets a disproportionately low % response from non-NA users. When you get a poll about something completely universal like age, you get a lower %NA turnout because the % response rate evens out across the world.


Some polls do get a disproportionately high turnout from NA if the poll deals with a subject that is NA specific, such as the Super Bowl poll - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4983

Over 85% NA turnout in the Super Bowl poll, and that was a full 24-hour poll.

Since the site is a heavy NA based site, we don't exactly see polls that favor the other 25% of the world. A low NA turnout is generally blamed on the poll getting very high turnout from Europe and Asia. One example of a poll getting low NA turnout and high Europe/Asia turnout - http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4922

But seriously, the age poll is something that anyone can answer, regardless of what country they live in. It's definitely not an NA specific subject. GameFAQs was really slow yesterday and was struggling to get above 4000 online users. On the weekday, it's pretty easy to get above 4000 online users at some point during the day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#380 | -Tofa7- | Posted 5/27/2013 3:02:57 AM | message detail
Is there any confirmation as to whether Link will/will not be removed from the bracket? I haven't been paying attention much.

If you take him out then this contest has the ability to be awesome and very unpredictable, especially come finals time. You keep him in and you suddenly miss out on a lot of potential great matches. For me this a much more important issue compared to any new potential entrants.

I mean only 37% of the site wanted to keep him in: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4574
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#381 | jacko_vdz | Posted 5/27/2013 3:21:54 AM | message detail
No, but I agree.

The world needs to see Mario vs Cloud/Snake/Sephiroth.
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#382 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/27/2013 4:09:23 AM | message detail | (edited)
Depending on the format, it could be a 4/5/6 ways contest. A random joke character might win in such scenario. Yeah, 1vs1 without Link is still hands down the best format that could happen but it does not look plausible at the moment.
#383 | XIII_socks | Posted 5/27/2013 4:49:05 AM | message detail
What's the precedent on banned characters? I think Allen would have announced the banning of Link to stop people wasting nominations on him, but I can't remember if he did the same in 2005 and 2006 (The Tournament of Champions and Battle Royal)
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#384 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/27/2013 4:55:09 AM | message detail
Back in 2005 and 2006, CJayC was the one running the contests. In those 2 contests, nominating Link is a waste of a nomination because he was going to be put into the Tournament of Champions and Battle Royale.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#385 | XIII_socks | Posted 5/27/2013 5:26:16 AM | message detail
Yeah I just said that. But did Cjay actually say "there's no point nominating Link (or Cloud)?"
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#386 | The Mana Sword | Posted 5/27/2013 5:28:43 AM | message detail
IIRC in 2006 at least the nomination form specifically called out that Link Cloud Sephiroth and Mario would be removed from the main bracket.
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#387 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/27/2013 7:26:13 AM | message detail
Trend charts for yesterday's age poll: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdC10T21ILUtZVk9iNzRzUlk4dDhPUkE&gid=4

Age polls on the weekend are pretty boring because trends are even more diluted, resulting in more balanced trends over the course of the day. Still, there are some noticeable trends in this poll.

"Under 9" performs best with the board vote and Power Hour, probably as a result of joke votes. After the Power Hour, it continues to do well with the night vote. Morning vote and the early day vote is the worst time period for "Under 9".

"9-12" performs worst with the board vote, Power Hour, and night vote. After the night vote, it performs very well with the morning vote, day vote, and SNV.

"13-16" has an average board vote and Power Hour This time around, it has a slightly below average night vote. It starts performing better when the morning vote arrives and maintains the strong morning vote throughout the rest of the poll.

"17-20" has a strong board vote and Power Hour. The night vote, day vote, and SNV are pretty average. It performed worst during the early morning vote.

"21-24" has a better board vote and Power Hour compared to last year. However, it has a weaker night vote than last year's poll. Still, it performed best with the night vote. Morning vote and early day vote were the worst time periods here. It performed better with the later part of the day vote and also the SNV.

"25-28" does worst with the board vote and Power Hour and best with the night vote, morning vote, and early day vote.

"29-32", "33-36", "37-40", and "Over 40" all have similar trends - Terrible board vote and Power Hour, average night vote, and strong morning vote and early day vote.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#388 | Nanis23 | Posted 5/27/2013 9:29:42 AM | message detail | (edited)
Is it too early to start making "GIVE US THE DAMN BRACKET" topics?
I don't know when the nomination ends
#389 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/27/2013 9:37:23 AM | message detail
Nominations haven't even closed yet, so we can't post stuff like "GIVE US THE DAMN BRACKET" just yet. Nominations will be closing tomorrow.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#390 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 5/27/2013 10:12:35 AM | message detail
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Depending on the format, it could be a 4/5/6 ways contest. A random joke character might win in such scenario. Yeah, 1vs1 without Link is still hands down the best format that could happen but it does not look plausible at the moment.


Yeah, the fact that he said "200+" but refused to confirm 256 suddenly has me very scared that it's going to be 216 (6*6*6), and the only way to make 6-ways work like that would be to only take the top finisher in each round.

If it were 6-ways, to get down to 6 for the final, here's the lowest possible starting point greater than 200 for each possible configuration of advancement and the number of rounds it would run.

Only the winner advances: 216, 3 rounds.
Top 2 advance: 486, 5 rounds
Top 3 advance: 384, 7 rounds

...Yeah, 6-ways seems unlikely. And 4-ways would hardly be a "new" gimmick. I think the most plausible non-1v1 format would be 3-ways, winner advances, start with 243 entrants.
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#391 | spooky96 | Posted 5/27/2013 10:19:28 AM | message detail
Can I know when and what exactly is the "Power Hour"?
#392 | abdou | Posted 5/27/2013 10:22:17 AM | message detail
Power hour is the first hour of voting, it is usually dominated by Nintendo
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#393 | spooky96 | Posted 5/27/2013 10:23:53 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
Power hour is the first hour of voting, it is usually dominated by Nintendo


Oh. Then isn't the "Board Vote" and "Power Hour" the same thing?
#394 | abdou | Posted 5/27/2013 10:26:56 AM | message detail
Board vote is literally the first minute, maybe even less , since it's heavily influenced by this board's users , we see some extreme/weird trends
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#395 | spooky96 | Posted 5/27/2013 10:38:56 AM | message detail
abdou posted...
Board vote is literally the first minute, maybe even less , since it's heavily influenced by this board's users , we see some extreme/weird trends


Oh I see. Thanks for all this info.
#396 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/27/2013 10:44:09 AM | message detail
This explains everything you need to know about voting trends:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends
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#397 | spooky96 | Posted 5/27/2013 10:49:33 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
This explains everything you need to know about voting trends:

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends


Oh alright thanks again Luster.
#398 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/27/2013 11:17:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Iamthekuzalol posted...
Depending on the format, it could be a 4/5/6 ways contest. A random joke character might win in such scenario. Yeah, 1vs1 without Link is still hands down the best format that could happen but it does not look plausible at the moment.


Yeah, the fact that he said "200+" but refused to confirm 256 suddenly has me very scared that it's going to be 216 (6*6*6), and the only way to make 6-ways work like that would be to only take the top finisher in each round.

If it were 6-ways, to get down to 6 for the final, here's the lowest possible starting point greater than 200 for each possible configuration of advancement and the number of rounds it would run.

Only the winner advances: 216, 3 rounds.
Top 2 advance: 486, 5 rounds
Top 3 advance: 384, 7 rounds

...Yeah, 6-ways seems unlikely. And 4-ways would hardly be a "new" gimmick. I think the most plausible non-1v1 format would be 3-ways, winner advances, start with 243 entrants.


It could also be a 4/5/6 ways eventually transitioning into 1vs1 in the later rounds, not sure if it works mathematically. Yeah, 3 ways is also likely too.

Let's hope Bacon could surprise us with some really gimmicky format because a 4/5/6 ways into 1vs1 or 3 ways contest most probably wouldn't contain Link.
#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 5/27/2013 12:55:51 PM | message detail
From: The Mana Sword | #386
IIRC in 2006 at least the nomination form specifically called out that Link Cloud Sephiroth and Mario would be removed from the main bracket.


This is correct.
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#400 | red sox 777 | Posted 5/27/2013 2:41:09 PM | message detail
Only 7% of the site is under 17 now and the ASV will be all but dead? Crono over Mario this year, there ain't no getting off of this train we're on!
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