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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1051 ("Holy Crap An Actual Contest" Edition)

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#301 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2013 11:09:02 AM | message detail
Well, it's not really a 12 hour poll. The first poll today ran for a total of 13 hours, 42 minutes. The current poll right now will run for a total of 10 hours, 18 minutes.
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#302 | Achromatic | Posted 5/21/2013 11:09:31 AM | message detail
Well that's kind of neat. Also the reception hasn't been too kind.
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#303 | superange128 | Posted 5/21/2013 11:10:54 AM | message detail
CLOSE ENOUGH
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#304 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2013 11:15:07 AM | message detail
Before the conference came to an end, we were getting between 170 and 220 votes per update on the current poll. After the conference ended, the vote totals spiked big time. Now we are getting over 400 votes per update on this poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#305 | abdou | Posted 5/21/2013 11:31:53 AM | message detail
Blocking used games is worse than always-online
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#306 | ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2013 12:05:07 PM | message detail
whoa 2 polls in one day
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#307 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2013 12:11:07 PM | message detail
I would have to agree that blocking used games is worse than always-online.


In the current poll right now, there were only 759 votes at the time of the 2:02 PM update (first 20 minutes of the poll). Since then, we got 3435 votes during the first full hour of this poll. As far as dealing with trend charts on this poll, there will be no DSV for this trend chart. The DSV for this poll is being replaced with the Power Hour. For this poll, the Power Hour will include all votes between 1:42 PM and 3:02 PM. The ASV for this poll will start at 3:00 PM instead of 2:30 PM.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#308 | Djungelurban | Posted 5/21/2013 12:29:26 PM | message detail
Actually, considering how much they talk about "cloud processing" in every single game presentation, that kinda sounds like an indirect always-online function to me... Sure, the machine itself isn't enforcing it but it's a minor difference... But I guess small indie games at the very least while work without online... Not that you can buy them with out online, but atleast it wont be a complete brick in case your internet goes down...
And I guess you won't be able to buy used games without online either cause how are you supposed to unlock them? Hmmm... Yeah, this machine is still always online required.
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#309 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2013 5:17:31 PM | message detail
"Just awful, it has nothing I'm interested in" is going absolutely berserk in this poll since it was revealed the Xbox One would block used games.

Current vote total trends for this poll:

Time Votes Per Hour
14:00 759
15:00 3435
16:00 2730
17:00 2768
18:00 2622
19:00 2363
20:00 2181


Poll started at 1:42 PM EST, so that explains the 759 votes during the first 20 minutes. Vote totals spiked after the live conference ended. The vote total trends in this poll are exactly the same as what you would normally see in a 12 hour day match. Based on the current pace we are on, this poll should end up getting between 24000 and 25000 votes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#310 | jacko_vdz | Posted 5/21/2013 8:26:25 PM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/ZGRnmgt.png

I'm starting to think the contest will be something wacky like this (see pic for better explanation).

Round 1: 128 lowest seeds in 32 4way matches (winner advances)
Round 2: 64 middle seeds + 32 round 1 winners in 32 3way matches
Round 3 onwards: standard 64 single elimination bracket, where Top 32 nominated characters had byes

This equates to 224 entrants. With 12 hour matches until the Top 16 this will take 71 days, or 67 days if only Top 8 are 24 hour matches. That's about the same as CB8.

Yeah, there's going to be a lot of fodder for the first two rounds, but if everyone's fodder then matches are at least going to be debatable. I'd definitely prefer this to just seeing Link/Mario/Cloud/etc curbstomp fodder for the 1st month in 4ways/3ways.

I know byes and 3ways have never been used before, but I think they could make the earlier rounds go quicker and be more interesting.
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#311 | swirIdude | Posted 5/21/2013 8:36:16 PM | message detail
I support that idea, actually. It'll at least minimize the number of Link and Cloud beatdowns we'll be forced to endure, and maybe we'll see Miles Edgeworth win a match!
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#312 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/21/2013 9:21:55 PM | message detail
Now that both polls from yesterday have been completed, I can now say that both polls combined for almost 50000 votes. That's still more votes than our current average of 38193 votes prior to May 21st, so there were a lot of voters from the night poll that also voted in the day poll. The night poll was on track to finish with about 41000 votes if it ran for a full 24 hours. I estimate the day poll to get about 44000 votes in a full 24 hour poll.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#313 | ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2013 9:25:46 PM | message detail
People voting "Its the worst name they could've chosen" are being overdramatic, and/or just hating on the Xbox blindly.
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#314 | abdou | Posted 5/21/2013 9:27:59 PM | message detail
It is a bad name . why would they call the third xbox Xbox One? it's silly.
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#315 | ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2013 9:35:11 PM | message detail
don't get me wrong, it's a bad name. but like, not *literally* the worst name they could've went with!
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#316 | Xuxon | Posted 5/21/2013 9:43:20 PM | message detail
but "lol gamefaqs poll options" means there's nothing between "literally worst name ever" and "not as bad as Wii U" so it's totally acceptable imo
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#317 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/21/2013 9:44:24 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
don't get me wrong, it's a bad name. but like, not *literally* the worst name they could've went with!


It's simple if you look at it this way, the options are really limited. How about those who think it's a bad name but do not think it's better than the name "Wii U". They were forced to pick the last option.
#318 | pirate109 | Posted 5/21/2013 9:53:16 PM | message detail
ffmasterjose posted...
People voting "Its the worst name they could've chosen" are being overdramatic, and/or just hating on the Xbox blindly.


Well you arent really meant to take that option 100% literally

Because yes "in theory" they could have called it the poopbox or something
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#319 | ffmasterjose | Posted 5/21/2013 10:16:19 PM | message detail
lol, X**** was one of the names that popped in my head. guess I'm thinking too much into it
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#320 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2013 5:54:36 AM | message detail
Double dose of trend charts coming up.

Poll updates and trend charts for the first poll of yesterday:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdEhLRk9PR1hqOGk4NnQ1MlJUXzRlY3c&gid=1

"Free online multiplayer" performed best during the Power Hour and the last 3 hours of the poll. It performed worst in the early morning vote.

"Full backwards compatibility" performed worst with the night vote and best during the early morning vote.

"No online requirement" performed best during the board vote, Power Hour, and night vote. It performed worst during the morning vote and while the live conference was taking place.

I was looking forward to see how the live conference would affect trends in this poll, but the poll was ended much earlier than usual so I never did get to see the impact of the conference on this poll's trends. But the trends for the next poll would be impacted by the live conference.


Poll updates and trend charts for the second poll yesterday:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFBxdlZPSlNGOHUwc3dhaGhzbTBUQnc&gid=1

"Just awful, not interested" performed worst during the live conference as most people watching it where probably fans of the Xbox to begin with. After the live conference ended, "Just awful, not interested" went berserk and consistently gained percentage for the rest of the poll. This trend was also affected by statements by Microsoft right after the live conference that stated the Xbox One would require a fee to play used games.

"Meh, not impressed" performed best during the live conference. It dropped off slightly after the conference ended and had an average performance in the first few hours of the ASV. It performed worst near the end of the ASV before doing better with the SNV.

"Interesting, too early to judge", "Neat, I might play it", and "Wow, just wow" performed best during the live conference, but they dropped after the conference ended. As we got deeper and deeper into this poll, all 3 options would collapse even more.

With the poll starting at 1:42 PM EST, that had a huge effect on the hourly vote totals for this poll. The poll resembles a 12 hour day match in terms of the votes per hour. When the poll started, there was only about 50 minutes left before the ASV started, so those 50 minutes were included with the Power Hour (which ended at 3:00 PM). This means there is no DSV for this poll and the ASV officially starts at 3:00 PM instead of 2:30 PM.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#321 | superange128 | Posted 5/22/2013 9:46:17 PM | message detail
22492 noms now
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#322 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2013 9:52:35 PM | message detail
If the nominations close on Friday instead of Thursday, then we still have a chance to break 23000 noms.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#323 | superange128 | Posted 5/22/2013 9:55:39 PM | message detail
what day do they usually close? Thursday or Friday (or another day)
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#324 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/22/2013 10:04:51 PM | message detail
I have no idea. I'm sure TRE could provide that information. I'll wait for him to get in here with a list of every contest with the date the nominations were closed.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#325 | XIII_socks | Posted 5/23/2013 4:46:23 AM | message detail
Luster. Estimate on how many will be needed to: a) make the voteins, and b) get so many that the vote ins are avoided.

Please and thank you good sir
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#326 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/23/2013 5:08:06 AM | message detail
We had about 90000 nominations for Character Battle 2010 and it took a minimum of 196 nominations to avoid the vote-ins. With 4 times less nominations for this contest, it should take 4 times less nominations to avoid the vote-ins. So I predict 50 nominations to avoid the vote-ins and 25 nominations to get into the vote-ins. I would have done a slight increase to both of those numbers if we had a standard 128 character bracket. But since we're getting over 200 characters, I think 50/25 sounds like a good prediction to make or avoid the vote-ins.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#327 | pjbasis | Posted 5/23/2013 6:04:09 AM | message detail
Sounds more like 35/15 if we're really getting that many more entrants
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#328 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/23/2013 6:40:21 AM | message detail
Is there even going to be vote-ins? Would like to see one, but it's not that likely though.
#329 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/23/2013 6:59:19 AM | message detail
That is a very good point you bought up, because we might not even need vote-ins with the number of characters that will make it into the final bracket.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#330 | neonreaper | Posted 5/23/2013 11:36:54 AM | message detail
We had about 90000 nominations for Character Battle 2010

well that seems like a drastic dropoff
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#331 | FateStayAlbion | Posted 5/23/2013 2:02:14 PM | message detail
#332 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/23/2013 3:53:56 PM | message detail
neonreaper posted...
We had about 90000 nominations for Character Battle 2010

well that seems like a drastic dropoff


Well, we also had higher vote totals back then as well.


FateStayAlbion posted...
Do we have any idea when the nominations will end/bracket will come up?


Bacon has suggested that nominations will be closing tomorrow, but he never 100% confirmed that. He only said "likely", meaning there's a pretty high chance of that happening tomorrow, but there's also a small chance nominations will continue through this weekend.

At this point, we are getting very diminishing returns on the nomination phase, getting less than 500 nominations a day now. So it's not really worth it to keep nominations open even longer after this weekend.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#333 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/23/2013 7:01:11 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have no idea. I'm sure TRE could provide that information. I'll wait for him to get in here with a list of every contest with the date the nominations were closed.


Villains Contest - Monday
Character Battle IV - Wednesday
Best. Series. Ever. - Thursday
Character Battle V - Friday
Quotes Contest - Thursday
Character Battle VI - Tuesday
Character Battle VII - Wednesday
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - Monday
Character Battle VIII - Monday
Game of the Decade - Monday
Rivalry Rumble - Monday

So Monday is when it will close.
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Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#334 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/23/2013 7:30:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
Looks like it's Monday then, was hoping to see it by tomorrow. There might or might not be vote-ins so don't know if that would affect his decision somehow.
#335 | GoldSlime35 | Posted 5/23/2013 9:00:29 PM | message detail
Monday is Memorial Day so that seems unlikely to me. It'll probably be tomorrow, since I doubt he waits until Tuesday.
#336 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 5/23/2013 9:02:07 PM | message detail
Xbox, go home.
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#337 | superange128 | Posted 5/23/2013 9:36:11 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I have no idea. I'm sure TRE could provide that information. I'll wait for him to get in here with a list of every contest with the date the nominations were closed.


Villains Contest - Monday
Character Battle IV - Wednesday
Best. Series. Ever. - Thursday
Character Battle V - Friday
Quotes Contest - Thursday
Character Battle VI - Tuesday
Character Battle VII - Wednesday
Best. Game. Ever. 2009 - Monday
Character Battle VIII - Monday
Game of the Decade - Monday
Rivalry Rumble - Monday

So Monday is when it will close.


Friday still has a chance of being the day. If I'm not mistaken, noms are closed by the afternoon or early evening EST right?
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#338 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 5/23/2013 9:42:37 PM | message detail
You're right that nominations typically close in the afternoon or early evening. That's probably why it won't close on Friday. No point in doing that if you're not going to do anything with the results for another 2 days because of the weekend. Also if Vote-ins are intended to start immediately, he might want to delay them for a bit to get in a few more Xbox One polls.
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Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
Pokemon VGC2013 BC Regional - 16th place
#339 | superange128 | Posted 5/23/2013 9:44:54 PM | message detail
Alternatively with 200+ characters there may not need to be vote-inz lolz
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#340 | superange128 | Posted 5/23/2013 9:47:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
also 22979 noms now

Only a little under 500 increase from yesterday.
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#341 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/23/2013 10:02:49 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
You're right that nominations typically close in the afternoon or early evening. That's probably why it won't close on Friday. No point in doing that if you're not going to do anything with the results for another 2 days because of the weekend. Also if Vote-ins are intended to start immediately, he might want to delay them for a bit to get in a few more Xbox One polls.


I also assumed if nominations closed on Friday, we might have to wait another 2 or 3 days for Vote-Ins because he might end up doing 1 or 2 more Xbox One polls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#342 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 3:02:52 AM | message detail
GoldSlime35 posted...
Monday is Memorial Day so that seems unlikely to me. It'll probably be tomorrow, since I doubt he waits until Tuesday.


Oh, right. I forgot about Memorial Day. That might actually increase the possibility of noms closing later today.


superange128 posted...
Friday still has a chance of being the day. If I'm not mistaken, noms are closed by the afternoon or early evening EST right?


Yeah, that's about right. You could expect noms to close sometime between 3:00 PM and 8:00 PM EST.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#343 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 5/24/2013 6:42:13 AM | message detail
23201 now.
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#344 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 9:03:01 AM | message detail
23215

Only 14 nominations over the past 2 hours, 20 minutes. Yeah, I'd probably say it's best to pull the plug on the nomination phase. We are getting almost nothing in terms of nominations at this point.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#345 | Justin_Crossing | Posted 5/24/2013 9:21:09 AM | message detail
lmao today's poll
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#346 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 9:23:13 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=5095
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=5049

The results are still pretty similar to each other. The fourth poll option had the biggest drop off compared to this same exact poll less than 2 months ago. The PS4 option had the biggest gain. The Xbox option had a much small drop off than I expected.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#347 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 5/24/2013 11:47:11 AM | message detail
Boo, it's Tuesday.
#348 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 11:48:03 AM | message detail
I saw the announcement. But at least he was nice enough to give us the exact time nominations are closing. When he said "noon", assume he is referring to Pacific Time. So that's 3:00 PM EST.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#349 | superange128 | Posted 5/24/2013 12:01:15 PM | message detail
I guess around 500 noms a day is good enough for SB to continue it for a few more days
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#350 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 5/24/2013 12:04:29 PM | message detail
We'll get past 24000 nominations before they close. We're currently at 23269.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
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