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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1049

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#401 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/1/2013 3:09:59 AM | message detail
The collapse of "feb-yoo-air-ee" is unfolding right now before our eyes. And then it will go on to dominate the ASV later.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#402 | LeonhartFour | Posted 2/1/2013 3:10:43 AM | message detail
riveting drama indeed
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#403 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/1/2013 3:11:56 AM | message detail
Luster, you're one-in-a-million.

A million of what, I have no idea, but I'm sure this poll's trends will answer that for you.
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ya im insane insane in the mimbrain
Current LP: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748
#404 | ffmasterjose | Posted 2/1/2013 12:41:27 PM | message detail
WANT CONTEST

:(
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This space reserved for the next GameFAQs Contest!
NP: I am PERFECTION
#405 | pjbasis | Posted 2/1/2013 12:44:28 PM | message detail
Proof that "yoo-air-ees" are little kids.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#406 | Boudii | Posted 2/1/2013 1:11:11 PM | message detail
I always hope he mentions something about a contest in the GWAR but he never does ;(
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#407 | ffmasterjose | Posted 2/1/2013 2:48:06 PM | message detail
Boudii posted...
I always hope he mentions something about a contest in the GWAR but he never does ;(


This. I was slightly excited when he said at the start of this week's GWAR that there was alot to talk about. Sadly, still no contest mention :(
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This space reserved for the next GameFAQs Contest!
NP: I am PERFECTION
#408 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/1/2013 3:17:18 PM | message detail
Tomorrow's poll - Who do you think will win the Super Bowl?

I hope that we get a 2-way poll tomorrow. That would be amazing.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#409 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/1/2013 4:04:34 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
Tomorrow's poll - Who do you think will win the Super Bowl?

I hope that we get a 2-way poll tomorrow. That would be amazing.


You mean for the usual b****ing of "Where's 'None of the above?'" I'm definitely hoping for some of that.
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ya im insane insane in the mimbrain
Current LP: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748
#410 | LeonhartFour | Posted 2/2/2013 2:42:59 AM | message detail
GameFAQs getting the pick right
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#411 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2013 6:27:57 AM | message detail
Trend charts for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdHpvb0FxbU5nYVJGX09SR1VERnJDcEE&gid=2

"feb-yoo-air-ee" is the main focus of this poll as it was the overall winner and had the most extreme trends out of the options here. "feb-yoo-air-ee" started out the poll with a strong board vote. Even though it dropped off during the Power Hour, it still had a strong Power Hour. "feb-yoo-air-ee" maintained above 50% for the first 2 hours. As the poll headed deeper into the night vote, "feb-yoo-air-ee" started its epic collapse. This collapse would continue into the morning vote until the bleeding finally stopped after 10:50 AM. "feb-yoo-air-ee" lost exactly 7% after the Power Hour ended, until it reached its lowest percentage of 47.67% at 10:50 AM. "feb-yoo-air-ee" started to pull in some 50% hours near the end of the DSV, before the ASV would kick in. When the ASV started, it took about 30 minutes before feb-yoo-air-ee's percentage started to shoot up like a rocket. "feb-yoo-air-ee" gained a total of 2.34% during the ASV, and then another 0.15% in the SNV.

"feb-roo-air-ee" had some fairly balanced trends throughout the poll. Even though it did best in the early morning vote, it was only able to get 24-26% hours here.

"feb-roo-er-ee" and "feb-yoo-er-ee" both had the exact same trends here - weak board vote and Power Hour, good night vote and an excellent morning vote, and terrible ASV and SNV.

"None of the above" has very similar trends to "feb-roo-er-ee" and "feb-yoo-er-ee". However, "None of the above" performs better with the night vote in comparison to "feb-roo-er-ee" and "feb-yoo-er-ee". The morning vote is slightly weaker than what we saw from "feb-roo-er-ee" and "feb-yoo-er-ee". "None of the above" still shares the same terrible ASV and SNV that "feb-roo-er-ee" and "feb-yoo-er-ee" both have. It is these 3 options that created feb-yoo-air-ee's extreme trends.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#412 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/2/2013 7:19:08 AM | message detail
Thanks for making a message board dedicated to video game popularity contests more nerdy.
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ya im insane insane in the mimbrain
Current LP: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748
#413 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2013 8:22:11 AM | message detail
Wow, the Ravens is winning the morning/day vote in the US. The 49ers have lost about 1% in the US since the morning vote has kicked in.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#414 | Boudii | Posted 2/2/2013 8:46:10 AM | message detail
isn't that because Ravens fans woke up already and voted while 49ers are still sleeping
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#415 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2013 9:03:29 PM | message detail
That actually makes a lot of sense.


Also, the 49ers are also winning today's poll yet again.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#416 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2013 10:04:26 PM | message detail
Poll updates for yesterday's poll: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDQxNTBoU2trbHJTYUQ5NFc5VlBMT3c&gid=1

Trend charts for yesterday's poll:

Time | Ravens | 49ers
1:00 | 48.79% | 51.21%
2:00 | 44.25% | 55.75%
3:00 | 43.85% | 56.15%
4:00 | 43.47% | 56.53%
5:00 | 42.65% | 57.35%
6:00 | 42.14% | 57.86%
7:00 | 43.09% | 56.91%
8:00 | 43.60% | 56.40%
9:00 | 44.67% | 55.33%
10:00 | 50.70% | 49.30%
11:00 | 47.87% | 52.13%
12:00 | 47.39% | 52.61%
13:00 | 48.59% | 51.41%
14:00 | 47.65% | 52.35%
15:00 | 48.55% | 51.45%
16:00 | 45.95% | 54.05%
17:00 | 46.07% | 53.93%
18:00 | 48.77% | 51.23%
19:00 | 45.91% | 54.09%
20:00 | 45.38% | 54.62%
21:00 | 50.54% | 49.46%
22:00 | 49.87% | 50.13%
23:00 | 46.86% | 53.14%
24:00 | 48.28% | 51.72%

Time | Ravens | 49ers
EBV | 44.75% | 55.25%
PHV | 48.79% | 51.21%
FNV | 43.54% | 56.46%
BSV | 43.92% | 56.08%
DSV | 48.60% | 51.40%
ASV | 47.23% | 52.77%
SNV | 47.56% | 52.44%

Like what we saw in the 2011 Super Bowl poll, one of these teams performed much better outside of the US. The Packers won the 2011 Super Bowl poll, but the Steelers were much stronger outside the US. In this poll, it was the 49ers that did much better than the overall result. Because of this, I thought there wouldn't be any chance for the Ravens to win a single hour if it can't fall back on the Europe/Asia/Oceania vote to win 2 or 3 hours overnight.

Looks like I was wrong about the Ravens not being able to win a single hour. The Ravens actually won 2 hours in this poll - 9:00-10:00 AM and 8:00-9:00 PM. The Ravens managed to win the 9:00-10:00 AM despite the previous hour being over 55% for the 49ers.

The poll started out with the 49ers winning the board vote easily. Usually the option that wins the board vote also wins the Power Hour, but that wasn't the case here since the Ravens gained about 4% over the next 55 minutes to finish strong with the Power Hour. The 49ers would go on to easily dominate the night vote thanks to Europe/Asia/Oceania. The 49ers continued to put on a strong performance as we headed into the morning vote. 8 straight hours of 55% or more for the 49ers during the night vote and early morning vote. The 49ers reached a maximum percentage of 55.08% at 8:30 AM before the Ravens would start surging back with the day vote. The 49ers performed slightly better during the traditional day vote time period (the normal ASV time period on a school day) and the SNV as well.

The Ravens continued to gain percentage until 3:20 PM when the 49ers started stalling the Raven's percentage gains. This stalling lasted for about 1 1/2 hours before the Ravens would have another go at gaining more percentage. Then at 6:20 PM, the Ravens hit another road block and the 49ers would make an attempt to gain some percentage. The 49ers reached a percentage of 53.60% at 7:55 PM before the Ravens would use the last 4 hours of the poll to gain 0.26%.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#417 | redrocket | Posted 2/2/2013 10:07:40 PM | message detail
What is GameFAQs track record for predicting the Super Bowl?
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#418 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/2/2013 10:26:12 PM | message detail
I know GameFAQs correctly predicted the Packers to win, based on the 2011 poll. They also got the Giants winning last year.


By the way, this map looks like a close electoral race at first:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/map.png?id=4983&region=9

So I finally got around to figuring out who won the electoral college in that poll. The final electoral college in that poll was 308 for the Ravens and 230 for the 49ers. Ravens won the electoral college without winning the popular vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#419 | Azp2k32 | Posted 2/2/2013 11:44:10 PM | message detail
Ah yes, we Washingtonians once more show our penchant for vengeance (of sorts). Just like how only Florida and Washington wanted to see the Heat win last year.
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#420 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/3/2013 9:49:49 AM | message detail
Today's poll will give us a better idea as to the impact of the Super Bowl on the poll trends. Last year, we had a Madden NFL poll on the day of the Super Bowl. The trends during and after the Super Bowl were very disappointing. The percentage of people who never owned a single Madden NFL game went from 65.85% to 66.08% during the Super Bowl. That's only a gain of 0.23%. When the Super Bowl ended, the percentage dropped from 66.08% to 65.66%.

I expect the Super Bowl to have a bigger impact on trends today. Madden NFL's trends from last year were affected by the Super Bowl as the people watching the Super Bowl were more likely to have owned at least one Madden NFL game.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#421 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 2/3/2013 11:23:06 AM | message detail
So it was February and still we were waiting...
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#422 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/4/2013 9:38:17 AM | message detail | (edited)
Trend charts for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdFpHX2ZGYWtCYkpkM0tRQmY1M3hjN2c&gid=2

In this poll, the first 4 options all had a good board vote and Power Hour, but they all collapsed during the night vote and early morning vote. Out of the first 4 options, the "Maybe" option was least impacted by the night vote collapse. When the day vote kicks in around 8:30 AM or so, the first 4 options all started performing much better.

The "No, not interested" option performed worst during the board vote and Power Hour. When the night vote kicks in, the "No, not interested" was performing much better thanks to Europe/Asia/Oceania and it was still gaining percentage as we headed into the early morning vote. The "No, not interested" option reached a maximum percentage of 55.46% at 8:25 AM. After that point in time, it started losing percentage when the US day vote kicked in. It would go on to lose almost 4% before the Super Bowl trends would kick in. Now for the good stuff next.

In the Madden NFL ownership poll from last year, we did not see any change in the poll trends until around 6:20 PM when Madden NFL's ownership started going down again, with the Super Bowl kickoff at 6:30 PM. But in yesterday's poll, the Super Bowl trends kicked in after 5:20 PM. The "No, not interested" option was consistently losing percentage from 9:00 AM to 5:20 PM. From about 5:20 PM to 6:00 PM, the percentage had finally stabilized and the "No, not interested" option was unable to continue the trend of consistently losing percentage. At 6:00 PM, it had reached its lowest percentage of 51.75% during the day vote. After 6:00 PM, the Super Bowl trends were in full swing and the "No, not interested" option was making consistent percentage gains. The Super Bowl had a much bigger impact on trends than the Madden NFL ownership poll from last year's Super Bowl.

From 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM, the "No, not interested" option was getting about 47-48% every hour. When the Super Bowl trends kicked in after 5:20 PM, the "No, not interested" option pulled in 50.76% during the 5:00-6:00 PM hour. The Super Bowl trends were in full swing during the 6:00-7:00 PM hour, with 2 hours of 58% or more during the first 2 hours to kickoff the Super Bowl. In the 8:00-9:00 PM hour, the "No, not interested" option pulled in a measly 53.62% in that hour. You can blame that on the fact there was only about 10 minutes of actual football being played during that hour thanks to the halftime show and then the power outage. But after 9:00 PM, Super Bowl trends were back in full swing again and the "No, not interested" option had 2 more hours of 56% or higher.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#423 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/4/2013 9:38:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
Thanks to the 35 minute power outage, the game ended much later than we are normally used to. Last year's Super Bowl was completed before 10:00 PM, but this one wasn't over until about 10:50 PM. In the Madden NFL ownership poll from last year, Madden NFL's non-ownership rate decreased by 0.42% after the Super Bowl ended. But in this poll, the "No, not interested" option only lost 0.28% after the Super Bowl ended, a consequence of having less time to lose percentage before the poll came to an end.

As a result of the "No, not interested" option performing much better during the Super Bowl, the first 2 options along with the "Maybe" option collapsed during the Super Bowl. The "Yes, for the commercials" option did perform slightly better during the Super Bowl. Another thing worth noting is after the Ravens had built up a commanding 28-6 lead over the 49ers, the "Yes, the Ravens" option started gaining more percentage. When the Super Bowl ended, the "Yes, the Ravens" option went absolutely berserk and pulled in 24.64% of the vote during the final hour of the poll. The "Yes, the 49ers" option also performed slightly better after the Super Bowl ended. On the 11:30 PM update, the "No, not interested" option nearly lost that update to "Yes, the Ravens". It was only a 3 vote gain for "No, not interested", but it almost got cut by "Yes, the Ravens".
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#424 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 2/5/2013 8:26:48 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
Pokemon VGC2013 OR Regional - 12th place
#425 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/6/2013 11:32:13 AM | message detail
I am currently tracking poll updates for today's poll. When we had this poll exactly 2 years ago, I tracked poll updates because early Geolocation results suggested there would be some strong trends in the poll. In the poll from 2 years ago, the "I don't know" managed to build up a lead of 2200 votes overnight before the "Unlimited Internet" option cut 448 votes off that lead before the morning vote and day vote would favor the "I don't know" option. That was a weekend poll, though.

But in today's poll, "I don't know" only reached a lead of 307 overnight before losing the lead at 4:00 AM. And now, the "Unlimited Internet" option has built up a commanding lead of 1550 votes as we head into the ASV. I don't think the "Unlimited Internet" option will lose the lead at some point before the end of this poll, not with these vote totals.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#426 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/6/2013 1:51:51 PM | message detail
It took until 3:30 PM for the ASV to finally kick in, but it was after 3:30 PM when the "I don't know" option started to make consistent percentage gains. The lead for "Unlimited Internet" also maxed out at 1703, which was at 4:15 PM. Since then, only 54 votes have been cut from that lead.

This ASV is turning out to be more boring than I thought. At best, we might only have up to 400 votes cut from the 1703 lead.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#427 | XIII_rocks | Posted 2/6/2013 1:52:13 PM | message detail
#428 | Boudii | Posted 2/6/2013 6:33:26 PM | message detail
I sent a feedback ticket asking how long until we get a contest but did not get an answer. Lame.
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#429 | Tokyo_Power | Posted 2/6/2013 9:20:24 PM | message detail
That's because there isn't ever going to be a contests ever again. Quite frankly, these discussion topics should be closed and never spoke of again. Besides, say we were to get a contest. What's the point of seeing Cloud Strife win again?
#430 | Boudii | Posted 2/6/2013 9:28:59 PM | message detail
Tokyo_Power posted...
That's because there isn't ever going to be a contests ever again. Quite frankly, these discussion topics should be closed and never spoke of again. Besides, say we were to get a contest. What's the point of seeing Cloud Strife win again?


>_>
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#431 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/7/2013 2:54:20 AM | message detail
I'm also sick of Final Fantasy winning all the time. When will Zelda finally get its due?
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ya im insane insane in the mimbrain
Current LP: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748
#432 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 2/8/2013 3:36:16 PM | message detail
Yep, nothing at all worth mentioning.
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ya im insane insane in the mimbrain
Current LP: Final Fantasy V - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3529748
#433 | Boudii | Posted 2/8/2013 4:59:29 PM | message detail
I don't think we are going to have a contest anytime soon, because right now seems like the perfect time for one and yet he hasn't mentioned anything , and he ignored my feedback ticket (and probably few others) asking about the next contest.
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#434 | LeonhartFour | Posted 2/9/2013 3:52:12 AM | message detail
Bacon racked his brain to find stuff to talk about this week.

Apparently the contest was not in there.
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#435 | jonthomson | Posted 2/9/2013 4:20:47 AM | message detail
37% of people have never lived
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congrats supernicedog
#436 | ffmasterjose | Posted 2/9/2013 4:45:59 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Bacon racked his brain to find stuff to talk about this week.

Apparently the contest was not in there.


Noticed this. and I lol'ed. Its like he knew we were going to read that, haha.
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#437 | Iamthekuzalol | Posted 2/9/2013 8:15:26 AM | message detail
Don't trust anyone? IMO, DTA now stands for "Don't Trust Allen".

"Gets stunnered."
#438 | Calintares | Posted 2/10/2013 5:15:42 AM | message detail
From the FFVII board:

Age, FF's reputation, and graphics have toyed with this game cruelly. A GameFAQs "best game ever" contest would spell doom for [Final Fantasy VII], where Chrono Trigger, Super Mario Galaxy, Metal Gear Solid 3, Resident Evil 4, Castlevania: Symphony of the Night, Skyrim, Super Smash Bros. Melee, The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past, Half-Life 2, Uncharted 2, Shadow of the Colossus, and 100% likely, Ocarina of Time would all have their way with it. Check other sites' top 100 lists, and VII won't even break the top 10 anymore.


The thread is full of stupid, but I had to share this with you.
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#439 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 2/10/2013 6:46:30 AM | message detail
To be fair, any view that isn't "Final Fantasy ALWAYS WINS" is closer to reality than taking FF to ever win another contest.
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#440 | Boudii | Posted 2/10/2013 7:00:26 AM | message detail
Only 4 games from that list are Top 10 and only one beats FFVII . Still I don't blame them, the Final Fantasy brand is not what it once used to be, this gen has been brutal to it, and I expect FFVII to just barely hold on to the #2 spot if we have a games contest.
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#441 | Naomi_Diamond | Posted 2/10/2013 10:01:00 AM | message detail
So would Lee or Clementine perform better in a contest?
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#442 | LeonhartFour | Posted 2/10/2013 9:01:00 PM | message detail
Huh, a Xenogears poll. This could potentially be interesting.
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#443 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/10/2013 9:03:10 PM | message detail
Uh, what's up the terrible playrate for Xenogears? I expected the playrate to be better than 23-24% here.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#444 | Boudii | Posted 2/10/2013 9:08:36 PM | message detail
Disgaea series has higher playrate than the Xeno series ? ..
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#445 | GrapefruitKing | Posted 2/10/2013 9:10:45 PM | message detail
My mom has a higher playrate than Xenogears
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your face is beads
#446 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/10/2013 9:12:20 PM | message detail
Hell, even the original Disgaea game has a higher playrate than Xenogears. I was expecting a playrate around 40% for Xenogears in this poll.

Though if you counted Xenosaga and Xenoblade towards the Xeno series, the overall playrate for the Xeno series would be higher.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#447 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/10/2013 9:16:51 PM | message detail
Xenogears has recovered somewhat from the terrible board vote. Playrate is just slightly over 26% now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#448 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 2/10/2013 9:36:55 PM | message detail
In between the 2004 and 2009 games contests, Xenogears went from getting ~20% on FFVII to ~20% on FFVIII. It's clearly fallen off.

And the game only sold 280,000 copies outside of Japan, which was maybe good for its time but we're not in its time anymore. A site shift away from huge fans of PS1 RPGs is going to hurt Xenogears in particular, because not a whole lot of people outside that group have played the game. Also no Europe release.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#449 | SunSolFlare | Posted 2/11/2013 11:30:44 AM | message detail
I really hope Rivalry Rumble's awful vote count isn't discouraging SBAllen/CNET/whoever from doing another Character/Game Battle.
#450 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 2/11/2013 3:05:04 PM | message detail
We've had plenty of discussion in the past regarding the terrible vote totals over the past 2 years and the Rivalry Rumble had very little effect on the vote totals in that contest. Vote totals were already pretty bad before the contest started. This post from last year explains the reason for the bad vote totals:

SBAllen posted...
Another thing that really fascinates me about the way the Internet works these days is that for the most part, people don't really go through a site's main page anymore like they used to. This is the Google Era. If you want something, you Google it, go to the result, and then go do something else. Our Google driven traffic's up nearly 1000% in the past 5 years, but as you can imagine a lot of people who hit us from Google get their answer and then move on. That's something I am already working on improving to keep more of those users, but it's not really detrimental to our overall traffic or anything as we have way more new users these days than we did back then as well. :)


Since the PotD is on the main page, most people visiting GameFAQs for the first time will never see the main page. Many of those are visiting GameFAQs through a Google result that takes them directly to a game's FAQ page, or directly to a specific FAQ itself.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
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