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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1049

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 1/10/2013 12:50:46 PM | message detail
Weirdest GOTY poll ever.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"I'm no match for you, oh divine king of all the internet." -Lightning Strikes
#2 | XIII_socks | Posted 1/10/2013 12:53:37 PM | message detail
Kygnkfjsfyehjcwgloy

That's "tag" translated to Russian, Kurdish and then Gaelic
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#3 | The_Djoker | Posted 1/10/2013 12:54:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
If xenoblade was a multiplat like ME3 and Borders 2 it would comfortably win this poll. Also LOL @ P4Arena in Europe. Game is not out there yet it has more votes than sonic racing.
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http://i.imgur.com/YjzIx.gif
#4 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 2:51:06 PM | message detail
Only took 8 days to fill up a stats topic during the off-season when we haven't had a contest in over a year now. That's got to be impressive.

XIII_socks posted...
Kygnkfjsfyehjcwgloy

That's "tag" translated to Russian, Kurdish and then Gaelic


XD at XIII.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#5 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/10/2013 2:52:06 PM | message detail
Tracked.
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im al going to tie up a girl and punch her 35 in the boobs once in each of her boobs 35 times
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3525106
#6 | pjbasis | Posted 1/10/2013 2:59:48 PM | message detail
To continue discussion from the last topic.

Did RE6 do poorly sales wise?

I think even ORC met its quota.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#7 | foxhead84 | Posted 1/10/2013 4:33:49 PM | message detail
well according to wikipedia:

"Capcom announced that it has shipped 4.5 million copies worldwide, setting a new record for the company. In October 2012, the game sold 806,000 copies in the United States.
According to Capcom, however, sales "weakened" following the strong start, with the publisher admitting that the game would not meet their goals, lowering financial projections for their fiscal year as a result."
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master
#8 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/10/2013 4:38:13 PM | message detail
From: charmander6000 | #496
To the board going from losing to Call of Duty 4 to getting 38% on TP makes it seem that there was no SFF. Heck not even breaking 60% on Pokemon RSE wasn't considered a good performance either. Sure you can argue Pokemon DPP LFF it, but unless we're talking something big it doesn't make SMG look that much better.


Again, this is just silly.

SMG has faced CoD4 before.

Compare the two performances. My case. It is rested.

Excellent 500 by the way Yo, even if it made me argue across topics.
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#9 | pjbasis | Posted 1/10/2013 4:47:01 PM | message detail
Well their goal was 7 million or something ridiculous.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#10 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/10/2013 6:19:11 PM | message detail
Again, this is just silly.

SMG has faced CoD4 before.

Compare the two performances. My case. It is rested.


Game of the Year polls have shown to be inaccurate. You would have to give SMG ALL of Pokemon DPP's votes for the game to have the same performance as it did in 2007.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#11 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/10/2013 8:16:52 PM | message detail
ME3 with the miracle victory tomorrow!

But yeah comparing GOTY results to contest results doesn't correlate well. Otherwise MW2 would have scored 80% on Dissidia in GOTD.
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#12 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/10/2013 8:24:26 PM | message detail
Also I did enjoy the "so you are saying you're right because you're right" followed by "well of course they SFF'd each other how could they not"

I mean it's not like we ever saw Nintendo face each other without SFF before. Both of them being Nintendo does not automatically mean there had to be SFF.
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Leonhart posting from his phone
#13 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/10/2013 9:01:23 PM | message detail
Wow, this is close. Only on Gamefaqs would a JRPG even be in the running for GoTY these days.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/files/2013/01/lewis1.jpg
We'll miss you, Ray
#14 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:01:25 PM | message detail
oh god
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#15 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:01:32 PM | message detail
Uh oh, weird results early on. But maybe that's just Xenoblade's board vote.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#16 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:01:44 PM | message detail
this is a fun five minutes
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xyzzy
#17 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 1/10/2013 9:01:56 PM | message detail
Xenoblade leads to start but it fell from here yesterday, right?
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#18 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:03:23 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#19 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:03:44 PM | message detail
REYN TIME BABY
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#20 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/10/2013 9:04:44 PM | message detail
From: Team Rocket Elite | #017
Xenoblade leads to start but it fell from here yesterday, right?

Didn't Borderlands 2 fall from the board vote too, though?
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/files/2013/01/lewis1.jpg
We'll miss you, Ray
#21 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 1/10/2013 9:04:59 PM | message detail
If it's close, do you think we'll get another "Final, Final Vote"?
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#22 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:05:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, Borderlands 2 had a monster early vote last time for some reason.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#23 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:06:01 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
If it's close, do you think we'll get another "Final, Final Vote"?


Maybe, I don't know. If it looks like it could happen, someone should send in a feedback ticket asking SBAllen about this.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#24 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:06:06 PM | message detail
any stats on where BL2/Xenoblade were after 5 minutes last time?

I feel like BL2 went down significantly from here while Xenoblade went up. am I crazy?
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xyzzy
#25 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:06:50 PM | message detail
Results after 5 minutes yesterday:

Assassin's Creed III 13.43% 63
Borderlands 2 23.45% 110
Mass Effect 3 14.93% 70
New Super Mario Bros. U 7.46% 35
Persona 4 Arena 6.18% 29
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed 2.13% 10
The Walking Dead 12.58% 59
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 6.82% 32
Xenoblade Chronicles 13.01% 61
TOTAL VOTES 469
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#26 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2013 9:07:04 PM | message detail
YOU
WILL
KNOW
OUR
NAMES
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#27 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:08:00 PM | message detail
I'm wondering what Xenoblade was overlapping with last time to let this happen.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#28 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/10/2013 9:08:02 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #025
Results after 5 minutes yesterday:

Assassin's Creed III 13.43% 63
Borderlands 2 23.45% 110
Mass Effect 3 14.93% 70
New Super Mario Bros. U 7.46% 35
Persona 4 Arena 6.18% 29
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed 2.13% 10
The Walking Dead 12.58% 59
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 6.82% 32
Xenoblade Chronicles 13.01% 61
TOTAL VOTES 469


Huh, Xenoblade actually went up. Based on these trends, this should be an easy win for Xenoblade. I don't trust that though.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/files/2013/01/lewis1.jpg
We'll miss you, Ray
#29 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:08:40 PM | message detail
Walking Dead!

good taste combining for the greater good
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xyzzy
#30 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2013 9:09:12 PM | message detail
From: KamikazePotato | #027
I'm wondering what Xenoblade was overlapping with last time to let this happen.


TWD. No seriously, those are the two super-well-received and respected niche games that no one played. Put TWD here and it also beats ME3, at least in the opening five mins.
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Yoblazer: http://i44.tinypic.com/5nw45i.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#31 | redrocket | Posted 1/10/2013 9:09:16 PM | message detail
Xenoblade GOTY 2010 2011 2012
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#32 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:10:25 PM | message detail
yeah that's more like it

still gonna beat ME3!
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xyzzy
#33 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:11:19 PM | message detail
Luster, we need Borderlands/Xenoblade hourly percentages

STAT
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#34 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2013 9:11:41 PM | message detail
Since I played it across two years, it's my personal GotY 2012-2013. Some people here played it in 2010.

B8 GotY 2010-2013
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Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#35 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 1/10/2013 9:12:22 PM | message detail
Maybe a 9-way poll dilutes ME3's anti-votes a lot better than a 3-way poll does?
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#36 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:13:09 PM | message detail
I wonder what happens if you remove ME3 from this poll. I can't imagine more of its votes going to Xenoblade than Borderlands but dreams can happen
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#37 | JJH777 | Posted 1/10/2013 9:13:47 PM | message detail
Wow what a glorious result. I slightly expected Xenoblade to edge out ME3 in the 3-way poll but I did not expect it to dominate it and actually compete with Borderlands 2.
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#38 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:20:47 PM | message detail
this won't be close enough to warrant a revote. I'm actually worried ME3 passes Xenoblade here.
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xyzzy
#39 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:25:28 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Luster, we need Borderlands/Xenoblade hourly percentages

STAT


Borderlands's hourly percentages against Xenoblade:

1:00 | 61.04%
2:00 | 61.35%
3:00 | 59.13%
4:00 | 57.11%
5:00 | 55.49%
6:00 | 61.24%
7:00 | 60.96%
8:00 | 58.74%
9:00 | 60.71%
10:00 | 59.23%
11:00 | 60.67%
12:00 | 60.64%
13:00 | 56.86%
14:00 | 59.30%
15:00 | 64.71%
16:00 | 59.76%
17:00 | 62.55%
18:00 | 62.99%
19:00 | 63.32%
20:00 | 61.59%
21:00 | 60.56%
22:00 | 62.93%
23:00 | 62.46%
24:00 | 54.94%

Don't ask me what is up with that final hour, because I don't know how to explain that one.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#40 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/10/2013 9:30:18 PM | message detail
cut
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#41 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:30:45 PM | message detail
Big cut there. Xenoblade with that 25 vote cut.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#42 | transience | Posted 1/10/2013 9:31:51 PM | message detail
you know votals suck when a 25 vote cut is huge
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xyzzy
#43 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 9:45:32 PM | message detail
ME3 has finally gotten a cut against Xenoblade. A 5 vote cut for ME3.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#44 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 10:33:44 PM | message detail
What a beastly update by Borderlands 2, as it managed to pull in a 48.77% update with a 36 vote gain on Xenoblade.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#45 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2013 10:38:05 PM | message detail
In a couple years, Xenoblade could become the strongest 2012 game even without a proper re-release. It's self-contained and should age like wine. What a weak year this turned out to be.
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Yoblazer: http://oi45.tinypic.com/258ngvc.jpg
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#46 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/10/2013 11:15:30 PM | message detail
Would anyone consider this year to be worse than 2009, or is 2009 still our worst year for games since our first GotY polls for 1999?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#47 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/10/2013 11:28:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
I dunno, the order of popularity from 2009 is probably a lot different now. Arkham Asylum, which did not even make the GotY poll, is probably stronger than any of the three finalists. Borderlands might be up there as well. We already know CoD has fallen sharply after peaking in 2009, and I'm guessing Dragon Age is also weaker after a disappointing sequel.

...XENOBLADE BEATS ALL
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world!
#48 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 1/10/2013 11:51:01 PM | message detail
Blimey

That Ending mustve really pissed people off
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Oh SuperNiceDog's doing it again dude.
SuperNiceDog, you ain't no pimp dude
#49 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/11/2013 12:09:52 AM | message detail | (edited)
charmander6000 posted...
Again, this is just silly.

SMG has faced CoD4 before.

Compare the two performances. My case. It is rested.


Game of the Year polls have shown to be inaccurate. You would have to give SMG ALL of Pokemon DPP's votes for the game to have the same performance as it did in 2007.


This ignores TF2. I would take a GotY poll over that particular match tbh.

Also, Yo, The Walking Dead sold over 8 million copies. That is NOT "no-one played". Also, Xenoblade was probably overlapping with NSMBU and Persona.
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#50 | FFDragon | Posted 1/11/2013 12:39:15 AM | message detail
I just want to point put that Operation Raccoon City is Capcom's 16th best selling game of all time and Resident Evil 6 is already their 5th best selling game of all time.

So while Capcom may have grossly overshot their goals, neither game was a commercial flop.
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