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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1048

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#251 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/8/2013 2:06:07 PM | message detail
Borderlands 2 is the clear favourite. Look what it did to that FPS poll. Consider that the FPS poll is probably the strongest of the lot.
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#252 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 2:11:13 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Borderlands 2 is the clear favourite. Look what it did to that FPS poll. Consider that the FPS poll is probably the strongest of the lot.


The vote totals seem to suggest just that and today's poll has very little chance of beating the FPS poll in vote totals. Today's poll looks like it will finish somewhere between 33500 and 34000 votes.
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#253 | transience | Posted 1/8/2013 2:42:53 PM | message detail
Walking Dead has a similar praise to Xenoblade, and sticks out far more. it'll get its votes, it's just a question of how many people have really dug into it. Xenoblade still has to compete with ME3, and Borderlands is kinda sorta an RPG as well.

really curious to see how this goes. something has to bomb. I'm hoping that something is AC3.
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#254 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/8/2013 2:48:35 PM | message detail
GameFAQs voters are savvy and know Xenoblade was well received? I don't expect that to have any impact on this whatsoever. Just because you were willing to pull an LMS and declare it GOTY without ever playing it doesn't mean that will be a common sentiment.

Also I somehow overlooked Borderlands 2 in that list. I expect that to take second with Xenoblade and AC3 fighting for third.
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#255 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2013 3:05:06 PM | message detail
Mass Effect 3 and Borderlands 2 LFF, Walking Dead wins GotY

yup
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#256 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/8/2013 3:07:29 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFone | #254
GameFAQs voters are savvy and know Xenoblade was well received? I don't expect that to have any impact on this whatsoever. Just because you were willing to pull an LMS and declare it GOTY without ever playing it doesn't mean that will be a common sentiment.

Also I somehow overlooked Borderlands 2 in that list. I expect that to take second with Xenoblade and AC3 fighting for third.


This post

What even is this post? Of course everyone knows how well received Xenoblade is, it was super-hyped, and reception means a lot in these polls. If you think everyone voting for these games has played them, you are in for a surprise. Case in point, World of Warcraft. It only has a 40% or so playrate, but did much better than that in contests.

The game was also very well received by the site itself (check out the MyGames stats) so that helps.

Also I will be very sad if ME3 wins, but luckily there's no reason to assume it'll beat Borderlands. Not saying it WON'T, but I view it as unlikely.
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#257 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2013 3:17:21 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartFone | #254
GameFAQs voters are savvy and know Xenoblade was well received? I don't expect that to have any impact on this whatsoever.


I think it will because people also understand that many of the heavy hitters have not been particularly well received. ME3 probably will not look dominant in the final. Had there never been fan outcry against the ending (meaning "had there been a better ending"), it would tear this year's competition to shreds. ACIII also had a lukewarm reception relative to ACII. Diablo 3 simply bombed, and the popularity of pure shooters has really dwindled here, causing games like Blops2 and Halo 4 (which may have contended several years ago) to barely cause a ripple as GameFAQs has come full circle.

There's no Skyrim this year, so I think voters might be a bit more considerate with their GotY votes. I don't expect anything to dominate, and I expect Xenoblade, which is the best reviewed game of the bunch (and arguably the one with the most passionate fanbase, however small), to look quite good.

And you know the LMS comparison isn't true. I never called Xenoblade the best game of the year before playing it. I said I wanted it to win GotY because it was so tremendously well received and would serve as a much better winner than something as divisive and flawed as ME3.
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#258 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2013 3:20:45 PM | message detail
Well before any of that happens Xenoblade has to beat Pokemon, and its been losing some ground.
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#259 | transcience | Posted 1/8/2013 3:29:08 PM | message detail
Xenoblade got dis. Xenoblade and Walking Dead -- probably the best GOTY poll ever for me.
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#260 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2013 3:31:38 PM | message detail
Also, not sure on how the final poll will exactly play out, but I will say I don't have any faith in Assassin's Creed 3. It wasn't Diablo 3 or ME3-level, but the reaction to that game was tepid at best. Think it disappoints when put up against actual competition and not Dishonored + a bunch of schmucks.
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#261 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/8/2013 5:05:19 PM | message detail
Mass Effect 3
Borderlands 2
The Walking Dead
Xenoblade Chronicles
Persona 4 Arena
Assassin's Creed 3
New Super Mario Bros. U
(maybe Dishonored if there's an original-GotY again)
XCOM: Enemy Unknown
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#262 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 5:09:20 PM | message detail
Once today's poll is over with, we will end up with 8 games in the overall GotY. Tomorrow, we will either proceed directly to the overall GotY, or we'll end up with 2 more days of polls to increase the total games in the overall GotY to 10.
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#263 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/8/2013 5:11:32 PM | message detail
Walking Dead's strength is equivalent to a higher-end portable game through the Layton games, so I don't have much faith in it. As for Xenoblade, it's still doing as well as a Pokemon game, which is decent and all, but not close to GotY material.

I don't see either getting close to AC3 in the final poll. I think it's more likely that Borderlands 2 wins GotY than TWD or Xeno snags third.
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#264 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 5:20:03 PM | message detail
Pokemon is starting to pull a comeback lately. Currently, the lead is down to 157. At 7:00 PM, the lead was 198, so Pokemon is making some progress here. I guess Xenoblade's Europe vote is losing strength.
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#265 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/8/2013 7:58:53 PM | message detail
Retro Analysis VI: Diablo II: Lord of Destruction vs. Grand Theft Auto III vs. Halo: Combat Evolved vs. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic

Results

Diablo II: Lord of Destruction – 27.43%
Grand Theft Auto III – 22.11%
Halo: Combat Evolved – 25.82%
Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic – 24.65%

Stats

Year: 2009
Round: Round 1
Oracle Prediction: Halo – 32.52%, Diablo II – 26.47%, GTA3 – 25.44%, Star Wars: KotOR – 15.54%
GameFAQs Brackets (Finishing in the Top 2): Diablo II – 33.75%, Halo – 80.37%
My Prediction: Halo > Diablo II

Analysis

Long before this match the general consensus was that Halo would win and Diablo II would finish second. Not much was thought of Grand Theft Auto III and Star Wars was thought to be the weakest and could also suffer some sort of console Xbox SFF. Some people thought Diablo II may have a chance at winning, but the board was generally hesitant on considering Diablo II over Starcraft, but likewise Master Chief and Halo are known for choking and having another Xbox game could hurt it.

The match gained a bit more hype as just before this match Vice City won over Metroid Prime and Starcraft showed that it was not as strong as we thought back in 2004. When the match begun we were all treated with the rarely seen four-way slugfest. Diablo II, Halo and Star Wars were essentially tied at the beginning while Grand Theft Auto III was not far behind.

Diablo II was able to set itself apart from the other games rather quickly while Grand Theft Auto III fell off pace just as fast. Halo was able to build a small lead of about 200 over Star Wars, but knowing that the full night vote is about to start the lead was far from safe. Star Wars, the one game in this match no one thought would do anything took the lead and was actually threatening to advance in this poll over the game that pretty much defined the Xbox. Most people were at a loss for words on how a game from the Xbox can be so close to the game from the Xbox.

During the night Grand Theft Auto III was able to take advantage that it was the most night vote type of game and was making some serious gains on both Star Wars and Halo and was able to cut a 700 vote deficit to about 250 on Halo, but once the morning came any meaningful cuts were stopped and by the time the ASV kicked in the game fell off to finish in a respectable last place.

After Star Wars took second place it was able to build up a lead of about 700 votes before the ASV came, but like anything against Halo you would need a lot more than that to survive. Those 700 votes disappeared in a matter of hours as Halo didn’t even care about Star Wars and was trying to catch up to Diablo II. Diablo II however, had a sufficient lead on Halo before the ASV started, but even at around 2700 votes its lead was cut for almost the entire poll finishing at around 1900, while we’ve seen more impressive cuts by Master Chief doing something to a game that has a decent day vote still pretty good.

Star Wars was by far the star of this match and to some people the entire round. The game showed good resilience to a drop that many people expected since 2004 and when looking back 40% on a Vice City that almost took the lead against Melee was not a bad performance either. While its loss followed the expected trend against Halo people were generally pleased with this match and it inspired the board to nominate Darth Revan for the 2010 Character Battle.
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#266 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/8/2013 7:59:02 PM | message detail
As a person that predicted Vice City over Metroid Prime I was a bit surprised on the disappointment towards Grand Theft Auto III. I guess it’s all relative since people were expecting it to finished third and it finished fourth, but all you need to do is look at its final percent. The game got almost 45% on Diablo II which at worst was what we expected. Also Grand Theft Auto III broke the record for the highest fourth place percent, which would be held for all of two days.

This also set up a bit of hype for the next round. Had Star Wars hurt Halo with LFF by even just a little the result of this match could easily have been reversed. Wind Waker was likely going to get SFF by Melee so that match would likely mean the difference on who advances. This also kept alive the debate between Starcraft and Diablo II. I’m more of a Starcraft supporter myself today, but I would hesitate to have picked one or the other back in 2009.
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#267 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/8/2013 8:10:50 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
From: LeonhartFone | #254
GameFAQs voters are savvy and know Xenoblade was well received? I don't expect that to have any impact on this whatsoever. Just because you were willing to pull an LMS and declare it GOTY without ever playing it doesn't mean that will be a common sentiment.

Also I somehow overlooked Borderlands 2 in that list. I expect that to take second with Xenoblade and AC3 fighting for third.


This post

What even is this post? Of course everyone knows how well received Xenoblade is, it was super-hyped, and reception means a lot in these polls. If you think everyone voting for these games has played them, you are in for a surprise. Case in point, World of Warcraft. It only has a 40% or so playrate, but did much better than that in contests.

The game was also very well received by the site itself (check out the MyGames stats) so that helps.

Also I will be very sad if ME3 wins, but luckily there's no reason to assume it'll beat Borderlands. Not saying it WON'T, but I view it as unlikely.


People may know it is well received but I don't expect it to benefit majorly from it. Or maybe I'm just the only one who thinks edging out BW2 isn't THAT impressive. The she's anti-Wii sentiment probably cancels out Xenoblade's "SmartvoterFAQs" edge, if it really exists.
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#268 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/8/2013 8:12:04 PM | message detail
The site's I mean.

Need to figure out how to disable autocorrect on this new phone.
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#269 | swordz9 | Posted 1/8/2013 8:14:39 PM | message detail
Persona 4 Golden is looking great. I wonder how it would do 1vs1 against the games it's currently beating. Despite it looking good here I sort of feel like it would lose 1vs1 to XIII-2 and KH3D. It probably beats at least 2 of the games though.
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#270 | LeonhartFone | Posted 1/8/2013 8:19:14 PM | message detail
Also I would wager Borderlands 2 will benefit more from a smart voter base or at least be equal to Xenoblade but I may be alone there.
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#271 | Big Bob | Posted 1/8/2013 8:22:27 PM | message detail
Pfft, we all know P4G is being LFF'd by Devil Survivor 2.

...Yes I know that DS2 is doing so terribly that even if it got 100% of the game's votes it still wouldn't be winning the poll, shut up.
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#272 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 8:27:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFone posted...
People may know it is well received but I don't expect it to benefit majorly from it. Or maybe I'm just the only one who thinks edging out BW2 isn't THAT impressive. The she's anti-Wii sentiment probably cancels out Xenoblade's "SmartvoterFAQs" edge, if it really exists.


I think that is a legitimate concern of any Wii game released during the height of the anti-Wii sentiment.

I think we'll have to wait a few years to see how games near the end of the Wii's lifecycle perform in a GameFAQs contest. I think Skyward Sword and Xenoblade will continue to gain strength over the next 1 to 2 years as more and more Wii owners who abandoned the Wii finally get around to playing those 2 games. Most of those who abandoned the Wii probably unhooked their system and packed it away somewhere. Many of them don't feel busting out their Wii again just to play Skyward Sword or Xenoblade, since they're too busy playing games on the PC, 360, or PS3. This of course hurts the playrate of games released after 2010, when the Wii was pretty much dead at that point.
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#273 | transience | Posted 1/8/2013 8:28:21 PM | message detail
I hope we get the final here. Bacon always teases us with some other useless poll every year.
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#274 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2013 9:00:30 PM | message detail
transience posted...
I hope we get the final here. Bacon always teases us with some other useless poll every year.


Jinxed it.
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#275 | transience | Posted 1/8/2013 9:00:49 PM | message detail
it's tradition

here's the new last place game
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xyzzy
#276 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 9:01:04 PM | message detail
Sports/Racing today. Huh, that's interesting. I thought there was a possible chance of a sports poll, but I could only think of like 8 sports games that could fit into a poll like that and all of the previous polls had 10 games in them.
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#277 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/8/2013 9:02:00 PM | message detail
Voting for Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed because Vyse is in it

Yeah that sounds about right
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#278 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/8/2013 9:02:08 PM | message detail
Well sports is a popular genre in gaming.. just not on Gamefaqs. Of course, Sonic or a Mario game will win here since nobody cares about the other options.
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#279 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/8/2013 9:02:57 PM | message detail
lol Sonic and Mario are 1 and 2 when I voted.
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#280 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/8/2013 9:04:01 PM | message detail
See, GameFAQs is savvy enough to know that a Sonic racing game was very well received, which is why it's going to beat the stronger Mario name easily despite a majority of voters probably not playing either game.
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#281 | Big Bob | Posted 1/8/2013 9:05:03 PM | message detail
I liked this poll better for the half-second that Trials Evolution was winning.

Still, funny seeing a Sonic game beat a Mario game.
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#282 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/8/2013 9:05:13 PM | message detail
From: PartOfYourWorld | #280
See, GameFAQs is savvy enough to know that a Sonic racing game was very well received, which is why it's going to beat the stronger Mario name easily despite a majority of voters probably not playing either game.

If they really cared about reviews, NBA 2k and Fifa would be killing here <_<
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#283 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/8/2013 9:05:50 PM | message detail
It's too early to tell if today's poll will end up with the lowest vote total of the 2012 GotY polls.
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#284 | pjbasis | Posted 1/8/2013 9:09:55 PM | message detail
Gamefaqs is savvy enough to know that Ocarina of Time is the highest reviewed game of all time too so I can hop on this logic.
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#285 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 1/8/2013 9:32:35 PM | message detail
Not sure why SSX isn't winning this. I had a lot of fun with that game.
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#286 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 1/8/2013 11:39:20 PM | message detail
Borderlands 2 > Xenoblade > ME3. Predix.
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#287 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/9/2013 12:34:35 AM | message detail
Guys.

There is no anti-Wii sentiment. Not in the context of games. Or are we forgetting how Brawl is one of the strongest games on the site and the system has won or claimed second place for GotY every year this gen except for 2009?

I would have thought we would have thrown out the "Wii games do worse" idea by now.
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#288 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/9/2013 1:01:38 AM | message detail
Wii is very strong up top (I wouldn't be surprised if half of our top ten strongest games of the gen are Wii games). The problem - and where this anti-Wii sentiment stems - is the discouraging lack of depth. Outside the Zelda/Mario/Smash nucleus, there's not much there to excite people.

Think of all the new IPs we've seen this gen like Mass Effect, Portal, Assassin's Creed, Borderlands, Dragon Age, Arkham. These are, by and large, multiplatform offerings, yet the Wii has not so much as sniffed a single one.
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#289 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 1/9/2013 2:58:00 AM | message detail
People are against the console's lack of games, not so much the good games themselves.

It's more that Xenoblade simply isn't as strong as everyone was hoping it to be, as it's still a niche release that only the hardcore really noticed. Of course, that takes it pretty far here (see Persona 4), but that still means it can only have so much strength.
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#290 | LeonhartFour | Posted 1/9/2013 3:31:24 AM | message detail | (edited)
From: Lightning Strikes | #287
I would have thought we would have thrown out the "Wii games do worse" idea by now.


Yeah, I was totally on board with what you were saying until a Zelda game got destroyed by Skyrim last year.

Early Wii does fine. Most of the strong games on this site from the Wii are from early in the system's lifespan. What's the strongest game released since Brawl came out? Probably Skyward Sword, but are any of you taking it to threaten TP or Brawl? I doubt it. It retains some inherent strength because it's Zelda, but that alone wasn't enough to save it. Plus, I'm pretty sure SS was well received (although yes, Skyrim moreso), so it can't be because people don't like it, I don't think.

Plus, what else after SS post-Brawl would you take to have any real contest strength? Maybe Galaxy 2? And even that is almost certainly weaker than the original, which has had its fair share of contest gaffes.
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#291 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/9/2013 5:23:50 AM | message detail
From: LeonhartFour | #290
From: Lightning Strikes | #287
I would have thought we would have thrown out the "Wii games do worse" idea by now.


Yeah, I was totally on board with what you were saying until a Zelda game got destroyed by Skyrim last year.

Early Wii does fine. Most of the strong games on this site from the Wii are from early in the system's lifespan. What's the strongest game released since Brawl came out? Probably Skyward Sword, but are any of you taking it to threaten TP or Brawl? I doubt it. It retains some inherent strength because it's Zelda, but that alone wasn't enough to save it. Plus, I'm pretty sure SS was well received (although yes, Skyrim moreso), so it can't be because people don't like it, I don't think.

Plus, what else after SS post-Brawl would you take to have any real contest strength? Maybe Galaxy 2? And even that is almost certainly weaker than the original, which has had its fair share of contest gaffes.


Skyrim did all the work last year, the Wii had nothing to do with it. You did see the percentages it was putting up in the polls there, right? It was looking better than TP did in 2006. Top 5 game on the site levels of good. Skyward Sword would have won easily in a year without Skyrim, as seen by it stomping everything else. Skyward Sword is probably between WW and TP/MM in strength, by the way, which I would base on its reception as well as the polls.

Also, calling Galaxy getting SFF'd to hell "gaffes" is a little unfair. It's a strong game, it just gets terrible draws.
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#292 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2013 9:11:15 AM | message detail
11591 votes after 12 hours. Based on that so far, we might just barely reach 20000 votes today. Still, it's going to have the lowest vote total of the GotY 2012 polls.
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#293 | The_Djoker | Posted 1/9/2013 9:54:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
From: Lightning Strikes | #287
Guys.

There is no anti-Wii sentiment. Not in the context of games. Or are we forgetting how Brawl is one of the strongest games on the site and the system has won or claimed second place for GotY every year this gen except for 2009?

I would have thought we would have thrown out the "Wii games do worse" idea by now.


xenoblade doesn't get hindered by "lol wii". People are past that and xeno is a great game.

And Brawl isn't as strong as you think now. It's not even top 5 now. Maybe 3 years ago sure. Not now. Both FF7 and OoT are above it. MArio 64, MM and LttP are as well. Probably a few others like Skyrim and CT.

From: transience | #253
Walking Dead has a similar praise to Xenoblade, and sticks out far more. it'll get its votes, it's just a question of how many people have really dug into it. Xenoblade still has to compete with ME3, and Borderlands is kinda sorta an RPG as well.

really curious to see how this goes. something has to bomb. I'm hoping that something is AC3.


FF13 vs Xenoblade...honestly what wins? Xeno would despite having a clear disadvantage of much fewer people playing it. Xenoblade is probably the strongest JRPG this gen unless we include Persona 4 which came out in 2008. Xenoblade beats Walking dead 1v1 poll.

As for who wins GOTY..Borderlands 2/ME3 is going to be very very close.

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#294 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/9/2013 10:16:24 AM | message detail
From: The_Djoker | #293

And Brawl isn't as strong as you think now. It's not even top 5 now. Maybe 3 years ago sure. Not now. Both FF7 and OoT are above it. MArio 64, MM and LttP are as well. Probably a few others like Skyrim and CT.


[citation needed]
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#295 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/9/2013 10:50:46 AM | message detail
While I don't believe Brawl is the 5th strongest game on the site either it doesn't need to be to be the strongest game of the generation.
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#296 | transcience | Posted 1/9/2013 10:57:17 AM | message detail
I think Skyrim could hang with Brawl. would definitely like to see it.
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#297 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/9/2013 11:04:44 AM | message detail
Evidence that Skyrim could hang with Brawl:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4594
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4841

Skyrim got 66.46% on Skyward Sword, while Brawl only got 64.01% against it. The only problem with the second poll is the heavy amount of LFF/SFF, which might have hurt Brawl.
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#298 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/9/2013 11:11:33 AM | message detail
I don't trust this gen's best to handle the strongest games from older generations.

Mario 3
Mario World
Chrono
LttP
Mario 64
FFVII
OoT
RBY

These would wreck Skyrim or Brawl. Given just how much this site has come full circle, I'd expect more Zelda games (MM, TP) to give Skyrim a battle or beat it outright. Same with old PS1 titles like MGS and FFVIII. Not sure if I'm alone here, but I'd probably take FFVIII over Skyrim. The new games have to earn top 5 or top 10 status by beating something that's already established there. Apart from Brawl beating Melee, has any new game even come close to doing that?
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#299 | TRE Public Account | Posted 1/9/2013 11:25:07 AM | message detail
How many new games have even had a chance to fight against the stronger old games? The Games Contests we've had were either division by era or restricted to games of the decade so there haven't been many opportunities to even try.
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SuperNiceDog was not so nice to my bracket.
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the Rivalry Rumble Guru Contest!
#300 | pjbasis | Posted 1/9/2013 11:35:31 AM | message detail
Which is why we need a BGE3.

Without any restrictions. ANY
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