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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1048

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#51 | Boudii | Posted 1/3/2013 8:56:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4590

ouch that's painful. I don't even remember that poll. we really don't need to run best mobile game
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#52 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/3/2013 8:58:28 PM | message detail
transience posted...
ha, 24000 votes. this site, man.

Borderlands 2 put up the same numbers against significantly better competition. that's the strongest game so far until we get them RPGs and action games.


Yesterday's poll got over 10000 more votes than this poll and it was for a genre that Board 8 isn't usually interested in. It was mainly Borderlands 2 that drew in most of the votes for yesterday's poll.
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#53 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/3/2013 9:00:50 PM | message detail
Action/Adventure Games today. Assassin's Creed III should dominate this poll. I expect much better vote totals on this poll.
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#54 | transience | Posted 1/3/2013 9:01:03 PM | message detail
AC3 better win this

this poll's probably a little stronger than the BL2 poll. well, it's deeper, anyway.
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xyzzy
#55 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/3/2013 9:01:07 PM | message detail
Adventure Game and no Walking Dead eh
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#56 | transience | Posted 1/3/2013 9:04:29 PM | message detail
Dishonored is doing surprisingly well here! usually a new IP like that gets buried on this site.

RPG category is going to be a bloodbath if Diablo 3 isn't an action game. if they put it in RPG, it'll be Xenoblade, ME3, FF13-2, Diablo 3, maybe Dark Souls PC, Torchlight 2...
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xyzzy
#57 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/3/2013 9:06:26 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Adventure Game and no Walking Dead eh


Walking Dead never appeared on the GameFAQs Top 100 Games and the game is less than 1 month old. The Walking Dead ended up with a good x-stat value in GameSpot's contest because the game is much stronger on GameSpot.
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#58 | transience | Posted 1/3/2013 9:08:19 PM | message detail
I'm kinda expecting a best 2d game category. there's been nothing on that front, even games that would absolutely qualify for this category, and you can't really make a best platformer category for the Mario games since they're kind of the only ones. maybe you guys know of more platformers than I do.
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xyzzy
#59 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/3/2013 9:09:01 PM | message detail
The RPG options look pretty good.

Thought Max Payne 3 would do better given the competition.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#60 | Boudii | Posted 1/3/2013 9:14:36 PM | message detail
MP3 was awfully disappointing. Journey impressing so far
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#61 | JJH777 | Posted 1/3/2013 9:18:06 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #050
Boudii posted...
worst vote total for a full 24 hour poll?


No, this is the worst vote total we've gotten for any 24 hour poll since the start of 2007:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4590

However, this year's Mobile Game GotY poll will almost certainly have a lower vote total than that poll.


I think you underestimate how much gamefaqs doesn't like PC/strategy games. StarCraft is pretty strong and WC3 is decent but those are the only strategy games that would even be in the top few 100 games overall on this site. I wouldn't be surprised if a mobile game poll beats last nights in votes.
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#62 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/3/2013 9:31:43 PM | message detail
I'm surprised a few of us are expecting TWD to do well. I'd take Journey to beat it, and as we can see right now, it's kinda stinking it up out there.
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#63 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/3/2013 9:35:01 PM | message detail
Stinking it up without ever being in a poll.
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#64 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/3/2013 9:52:34 PM | message detail
I meant Journey.
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#65 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/3/2013 9:59:46 PM | message detail
Oh, alright then.

Journey doing worse than expected could be blamed on the game being released near the beginning of 2012. As a result, Journey has lost lot of its strength in the 10 months since it came out. If Journey came out during the last 2 months of the year, it would have done better than this.
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#66 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 1/3/2013 10:19:42 PM | message detail
I don't know, I figure a game this low-key might be at its strongest now because it's actually winning GotY awards. GameFAQs voters are usually privy to that stuff, but I guess there's only so much strength to be had when you're a one-console exclusive DLC game.
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#67 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/4/2013 8:19:16 AM | message detail
I don't think Journey and The Walking Dead should be closely compared. Journey's a minimalistic two-hour PS3-exclusive that's hit-or-miss with people, and I think only IGN has given it cred for GotY-material so far. Meanwhile, TWD had an engaging subscription of ~two-hour episodes that sold more, hit multiple systems, and made use of what made Mass Effect (a series that will likely win its second GotY here soon) so popular: making your previous choices meaningful. It seems to win by popular vote on other sites as well; Giant Bomb's readers made TWD #1 to Journey's #3 and TWD 60-40'd Journey in GameSpot's first round of their tournament.

TWD may not shake up the scene, but Journey isn't a good gauge for that.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#68 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/4/2013 3:18:13 PM | message detail
Retro Analysis III: Midna

Significant Results

Agent 47 – 17.56%
Kratos Aurion – 21.09%
Midna – 24.71%
Scorpion – 36.64%

Cloud Strife – 53.49%
Midna – 16.16%
Mewtwo – 16.91%
Pac-Man – 13.44%

Stats

Years Participated: 2007, 2008, 2010
Win-Loss Ratio: 2-3
My Prediction Record (In terms of Midna): 4-1

Analysis

Midna along with Balthier were the most hyped new characters going into 2007. Both characters were from the biggest games in 2006 and given the excitement towards Twilight Princess, the first well liked Zelda game since Ocarina of Time expectations for Midna were high. Fourth strongest Zelda character was a given, but how strong would she be? The debate was mostly whether she could be stronger than Frog, even in the face of LFF, which at the time was not fully confirmed until after the brackets closed.

While Scorpion had some strength it was thought Midna would have little trouble. Scorpion was last seen in 2004 and even back then he was nothing special, sure Sub-Zero in the last contest looked decent, but that was Sub-Zero, not Scorpion. Well a combination of overestimating Midna and Scorpion receiving a boost since we last saw him led to one of the largest flops in 2007.

Scorpion took the lead right away and never looked back. The beat down was so large that it even shocked the people that thought Midna would flop. By the time the match ended Midna was closer to Agent 47 than Scorpion. The second round was no kinder to Midna either as she finished a distant last place against a Frog that was not impressive in his first match.

In 2008 the board had learned their lesson and were relatively negative towards Midna. While Midna was given a rather easy match where she and Cloud destroyed Miles Edgeworth and Axel Steel she was not expected to do well in the second round. The debate was whether she could avoid enough SFF or LFF from Mewtwo to finish ahead of Pac-Man, almost no one thought she had a chance against Mewtwo, whom looked good in 2007 against Ryu and Bowser and in his first round match, albeit against weak opponents.

The Midna that we thought of in 2007 decided to show up for this match and instead of having a close match against Pac-Man she decided to go for Mewtwo. After the board vote ended Midna remained close with Mewtwo and continued to do so for the entire night and morning. She never threatened to take a lead and once the After School Vote began Mewtwo was able to pull away and seal the win, but not without drawing questions as to what happened and on Mewtwo’s strength.

Midna had to compete in a vote-in to reach the 2010 contest where she barely made the contest by finishing fifth and far off from the top 4. She was given a 16 seed and Sora as an opponent. Despite having no chance at winning she managed a respectable performance by breaking 36% on him. The performance was offset a bit by this being a night match and Sora’s performance in later rounds.

I feel Midna is a bit underrated by the board. While she did not show up in 2007 her performances in 2008 and 2010 were okay. Sure she may not be the borderline midcarder/upper midcarder that we thought, but she does have some strength. Of course with Twilight Princess getting older and no plans to adding her in another game it is expected that her strength may decline soon if it already hasn’t and that’s if she even makes the bracket altogether.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#69 | Boudii | Posted 1/4/2013 4:09:05 PM | message detail
looks like the gamefaqs t-shirts aren't selling well
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#70 | Ngamer64 | Posted 1/4/2013 4:59:59 PM | message detail
Who will be the GameSpot People's Choice Game of the Year?
People's Choice Game of the Year voting will employ a bracket system that pits games against each other in head-to-head elimination rounds until only one game remains.


Ah, I love it! And despite highly questionable seeding, some poor choices on what made the cut, and horrible votals (looks like the final was under 8000 votes), it still made for a pretty fun bracket.

http://www.gamespot.com/best-of-2012/peoples-choice/index.html?page=2

I've been pushing for us to move to a 16 game 1v1 bracket for GotY for years now, and I still stand by it. Would only take 15 days to run, as opposed to the 16+ we've often spent on GotYs in the past (though looks like SB cut it down to 10 days last year, good for him).

Guess if you wanted to make sure everything was included you could push that to 32 games and use the 12 hour format, but ehhh, that's a lot of fodder to have to deal with.
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#71 | Tokyo_Power | Posted 1/4/2013 5:26:58 PM | message detail
LOL! Do you people really have FIFTY THOUSAND posts dedicated to stupid contests on a messag board? I hope to God you're all 13!
#72 | Boudii | Posted 1/4/2013 5:41:34 PM | message detail
Tokyo_Power posted...
LOL! Do you people really have FIFTY THOUSAND posts dedicated to stupid contests on a messag board? I hope to God you're all 13!


LOL! I know we Like all need a life LOL! LOL!

also Learn 2 math LOL! and Learn 2 spell too LOL!

OMG LOL!
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#73 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/4/2013 5:52:22 PM | message detail
You're actually banned the moment you turn fourteen. Good call, alt.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#74 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/4/2013 6:20:44 PM | message detail | (edited)
Boudii posted...
looks like the gamefaqs t-shirts aren't selling well


I see there's a section for the GameFAQs t-shirts below the PotD on the front page and on the main boards page.


Ngamer64 posted...
Ah, I love it! And despite highly questionable seeding, some poor choices on what made the cut, and horrible votals (looks like the final was under 8000 votes), it still made for a pretty fun bracket.


You needed to be logged into an account to vote, so that explains the horrible votals. However, it meant that this contest was not tainted by the vote stuffing that plagued the previous contests.

By the way, the final had almost 13400 votes. We were only told that the winner of the final got 6730 votes. Since the match was almost 50/50, you could pretty much double that total.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#75 | Ngamer64 | Posted 1/4/2013 9:07:48 PM | message detail
Hmm I guess 13,000 votes is actually pretty solid, considering what's happened to our front page the last couple years...

In other news, I was so proud of Leon's GotY research from above that I went and created a wiki on the subject. I'm going to trust him to take over the updating of this page every January from now to 2100.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Game_of_the_Year

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thengamer.com/guru thengamer.com/xstats board8.wikia.com
Best Show ever? Our interview of Guru Champ SuperNiceDog!
#76 | Big Bob | Posted 1/4/2013 9:51:50 PM | message detail
Mark of the Ninja losing badly makes my inner fanboy angry.

As obvious as the result was.
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#77 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/4/2013 9:57:13 PM | message detail
Decent performance from Kid Icarus.

Maybe Pit will be more than fodder now.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#78 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/4/2013 10:02:00 PM | message detail
2103 votes at the end of the first hour, so this poll will end up breaking 20000 votes today.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#79 | transience | Posted 1/5/2013 3:23:37 AM | message detail
I doubt 28% of the people voting have even played NSMBU

probably not even 20%
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xyzzy
#80 | pjbasis | Posted 1/5/2013 3:29:29 AM | message detail
From: transience | #079
I doubt 28% of the people voting have even played NSMBU

probably not even 20%


They probably played one of the other three though
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#81 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/5/2013 4:57:55 AM | message detail
transience posted...
I doubt 28% of the people voting have even played NSMBU

probably not even 20%


You would be correct about that. Just a few days ago, Wii U ownership was currently at 15.45% so about 12% of this site voted for NSMBU without even playing it. I admit that I voted for NSMBU without playing it.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#82 | The Mana Sword | Posted 1/5/2013 6:00:47 AM | message detail
action game

fez

what
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#83 | DomaDragoon | Posted 1/5/2013 6:32:24 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
transience posted...
I doubt 28% of the people voting have even played NSMBU

probably not even 20%


You would be correct about that. Just a few days ago, Wii U ownership was currently at 15.45% so about 12% of this site voted for NSMBU without even playing it. I admit that I voted for NSMBU without playing it.


You can play a game without owning the console for it. That why you have friends - to mooch off of their cool stuff.
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Congrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion!
#84 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/5/2013 6:47:04 AM | message detail
As cool as KI:R is, this isn't that impressive...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2618
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3726 (B:AA, AC2, and Borderlands could beat NSMBW, too)
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4118
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4841
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4890
Wii U ownership - 15.45%

...despite the implied weaknesses of NSMBU and its series, I figure NSMBU is getting additional help from August's NSMB2 -- a snub in today's poll. Between that and branding, we're likely seeing some inflated strength.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#85 | HaRRicH | Posted 1/5/2013 12:13:50 PM | message detail
Between KI:R today and Uncharted: Golden Abyss yesterday, it looks like there won't be a poll for system-exclusives or portables. There may still be an original-GotY though...Dishonored's looking like the favorite for such a poll so far, though Xenoblade may have something to say about that.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#86 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 1/5/2013 1:38:51 PM | message detail
How strong would Persona 4 Golden be? is it even going to be nominated? IT should.
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#87 | charmander6000 | Posted 1/5/2013 2:59:22 PM | message detail
Retro Analysis IV: (6) Donkey Kong vs. (3) Tommy Vercetti

Results

Donkey Kong – 49.52%
Tommy Vercetti – 50.48%

Stats

Year: 2003
Round: Round 2
Oracle Prediction: Tommy Vercetti, 53.80%
GameFAQs Brackets: Tommy Vercetti, 52.43%
My Prediction: Tommy Vercetti > Donkey Kong

Analysis

The last round exposed Vercetti and that he would not win the division. Failing to double Kite is not something that a powerful character should be doing. Still despite the terrible performance few people expected him to struggle against a Donkey Kong that barely won against Aya Brea in 2002.

Donkey Kong’s supporters were quick to point out that both characters had similar performances against their first round opponents and given that x-stats did not become popular until after the contest this point worried a few people, even though Vercetti still had the advantage of winning by about 3% more than Donkey Kong. Of course when we’re discussing a match between a character that I never heard of against another character that I never heard of at the time we may be a bit too quick to judge them as being equals.

Vercetti was able to take the lead at the start of the poll, but it quickly became apparent that winning this match was not going to be easy, which stunned the board even more and cemented Vercetti as one of the biggest flops in contest history. As the night continued Vercetti was able to settle in and was able to make continuous gains on Donkey Kong giving the board some relief that they may have dodged a bullet.

However, like against Aya Brea in 2002 Donkey Kong began to make large cuts in the morning and while Vercetti tried to stall as much as he could by the afternoon the first successful comeback of 2003 was complete. At this point the board was going crazy with people being happy that their preferred character was winning verses people that wanted to get the match correct.

As Donkey Kong took the lead Vercetti was finally able to make meaningful stalls and the two were exchanging leads for a couple of hours. Eventually Vercetti was able to get his act together and was able to take control of the match on route to a win of just under 1000 votes.

Some people felt that Donkey Kong choked in this match, but considering that he wasn’t even supposed to challenge Vercetti I’m not sure how you could say that. So what happened to Vercetti? According to CJayC’s stats Vercetti had the sixth most brackets predicting him to win, he was from one of the biggest games of 2002 and his game was near the top of the FAQ list, it looked to be a recipe for success.

If the Top FAQ list argument was not dead by this match it was now and it is also clear that coming from a big game or series does not translate into strength. These may seem obvious now, but back then without the amount of stats we have today it seemed believable. The match also unearthed some more discussion about Donkey Kong’s performance against Mario in 2002 with the idea that he severely underperformed in that match, which became another step towards the formation of SFF.
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Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#88 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2013 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Katawa Shoujo huh
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#89 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/5/2013 9:01:14 PM | message detail
Here we go, we get to see The Walking Dead in action today.
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#90 | transience | Posted 1/5/2013 9:01:23 PM | message detail
if walking dead can beat layton, that's fairly impressive
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xyzzy
#91 | Steelers_Best | Posted 1/5/2013 9:02:09 PM | message detail
I never thought I'd see a 4chan made visual novel about dating crippled girls on a Gamefaqs GoTY poll
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#92 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2013 9:02:22 PM | message detail
Not really. Layton is pretty terrible on this site.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#93 | transience | Posted 1/5/2013 9:02:38 PM | message detail
it is! but it's got name brand/nintendo recognition and walking dead doesn't
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xyzzy
#94 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/5/2013 9:03:54 PM | message detail
Took until vote 222 for Botanicula to get its first vote.
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#95 | transience | Posted 1/5/2013 9:03:56 PM | message detail
and walking dead is kind of killing it. this is a better poll than the xcom one, at the very least.

curious to see if katawa shoujo gets a push - that game got a ton of talk this year in the VN circles and it doesn't take much to win a gamefaqs poll these days
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xyzzy
#96 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2013 9:06:40 PM | message detail
A ton of talk in VN circles is still an extremely limited audience.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#97 | transience | Posted 1/5/2013 9:07:23 PM | message detail
trudat, but it's not just a 4chan thing is what I'm saying
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xyzzy
#98 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 1/5/2013 9:10:20 PM | message detail
The Walking Dead

All hail your Game of the Year.
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#99 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 1/5/2013 9:14:34 PM | message detail
We have yet to see Mass Effect 3 in action, so it's too early to declare "The Walking Dead" as GotY 2012.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#100 | KamikazePotato | Posted 1/5/2013 9:15:28 PM | message detail
Katawa Shoujo actually is getting a bit of a push. That's kind of funny.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
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