GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1048
~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- "Not everybody is a perfect person in the world. Everyone kills people, murder people, steals from you, steals from me, whatever." -Ohio State |
I know I posted this in the previous topic, but I'll post it here so other people will notice it. I actually failed to notice this GameSpot contest until it was too late: http://www.gamespot.com/best-of-2012/peoples-choice/index.html?page=2 That's a pretty cool idea, turning their yearly voting awards into an actual contest this time around. I'll work on x-stats for this contest. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Hey Luster, Nintendo own Monolith, therefore, Monolith is First-Party. Same as Retro or Intelligent Systems. With love, the other LS. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
x-stats for GameSpot's BEST OF 2012 contest: Far Cry 3 - 50.00% Mass Effect 3 - 49.70% Dishonored - 49.30% Assassin's Creed III - 45.72% Max Payne 3 - 37.37% Borderlands 2 - 36.10% The Walking Dead: A Telltale Games Series - 33.20% Guild Wars 2 - 32.44% Halo 4 - 31.62% Hitman: Absolution - 28.46% XCOM: Enemy Unknown - 28.43% Sleeping Dogs - 28.27% Journey - 26.29% Diablo III - 24.51% Darksiders II - 22.89% PlanetSide 2 - 21.12% Call of Duty: Black Ops II - 21.08% Torchlight II - 20.53% Total War: Shogun 2 - Fall of the Samurai - 20.15% Mark of the Ninja - 20.12% Sid Meier's Civilization V: Gods & Kings - 20.01% Need for Speed: Most Wanted - 18.65% Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning - 18.41% Sins of a Solar Empire: Rebellion - 17.19% LEGO The Lord of the Rings - 16.67% Dragon's Dogma - 16.53% The Last Story - 16.32% Counter-Strike: Global Offensive - 15.27% Fez - 15.18% Street Fighter X Tekken - 15.10% Persona 4 Golden - 14.97% Tribes: Ascend - 14.65% FIFA Soccer 13 - 14.49% Trials: Evolution - 14.40% Minecraft: Xbox 360 Edition - 14.23% Spelunky - 13.82% SSX - 13.12% Pro Evolution Soccer 2013 - 12.99% Crusader Kings II - 12.40% Persona 4 Arena - 12.19% Forza Horizon - 12.10% LittleBigPlanet PS Vita - 12.08% NBA 2K13 - 11.83% Lone Survivor - 11.47% Resident Evil: Revelations - 11.44% New Super Mario Bros. U - 10.94% Syndicate - 10.83% Hybrid - 10.80% Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward - 9.93% Awesomenauts - 9.80% F1 2012 - 9.77% Skullgirls - 9.62% Ridge Racer Unbounded - 9.43% Tekken Tag Tournament 2 - 9.28% Nintendo Land - 9.19% Endless Space - 9.03% Hero Academy - 8.69% Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor 2 - 8.37% NHL 13 - 8.35% Sine Mora - 8.18% Sound Shapes - 7.75% Dance Central 3 - 6.83% FIFA Street - 5.89% Closure - 5.22% 4 different sports games (NBA 2K13, Pro Evolution Soccer 2013, FIFA Soccer 13, and SSX) all managed to finish above NSMBU in the x-stats. Persona 4 Golden beating Persona 4 Arena in the x-stats really surprised me, because of how much the Vita is struggling. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
So
Last Story was in that thing, but not Xenoblade? Having Walking Dead
and Journey face off in the first round? Weird choices there. --- whas a penetration i have no idea what that is ~ertyu Current LP: SimAnt - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3525106 |
This was how GameSpot determined the seeding: http://www.gamespot.com/shows/best-of-2012-videos/?event=best_of_2012_people039s_choice_live_seeding20121205 It doesn't take you more than a few minutes to realize that they chose the seeding by assigning numbers to all 64 games and randomly picking numbers for each match-up. So all of the matches were chosen randomly rather than choosing them based on the game's expected strength. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
After last topic, I have to vent: THE CONSUMER IS THE SECOND PARTY THE CONSUMER IS THE SECOND PARTY THE CONSUMER IS THE SECOND PARTY --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
From: Not_Wylvane | #005 So Last Story was in that thing, but not Xenoblade? Having Walking Dead and Journey face off in the first round? Weird choices there. They reviewed Xenoblade last year ( http://www.gamespot.com/xenoblade-chronicles/reviews/xenoblade-chronicles-review-6329918/ ), so by Gamespot rules they probably consider it a 2011 title. I wonder if same thing will happen here. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2802o3b.jpg http://i49.tinypic.com/kapoj8.gif http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/4254/mayukokh4.jpg |
I
have a feeling that Xenoblade will be included in one of the GotY polls
this year, because it was not included in the 2011 GotY polls. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
http://www.gamespot.com/best-of-2011-awards/game-of-the-year/ Looks like GameSpot considered Xenoblade to be a 2011 game, but GameFAQs did not. Since it was only available in Europe, Australia, and Japan at the time. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... Persona 4 Golden - 14.97% Come on, really? --- http://i.imgur.com/LsekL.jpg Thanks SSJBrohan! |
Yeah it's a crime that Persona is that low. --- I'm no longer a Nadal supporter. Andy Murray is my new favorite player/person. -Princess Anri |
The Mana Sword posted... Yeah it's a crime that Persona is that low. Agreed, except Tribes is better and that's saying a lot. --- http://i.imgur.com/LsekL.jpg Thanks SSJBrohan! |
Spec ops wasn't even in the contest! --- SuperNiceDog took my lunch money. |
To give this topic some more activity until the next contest I’ll be posting a series of retro analyses. These analyses will not only take a look back at old matches, but I will also analyze a character’s (or game/series/rivalry) performance in a given contest or their entire contest history, rivalries created over the years, factors (TJF, SFF, x-stats etc.), other news worthy events (Oracle, Spread Betting, Guru etc.) and even entire contests. Of course the more specific the topics are the more detail that will be given. Right now I’ll be using the random button on the board 8 wiki for inspiration, but I will take requests, just know that I may not fulfill the request right away or in the order that they are received just so I don’t end up doing all of the best things right away. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest. |
Retro Analysis I: (2) Revolver Ocelot vs. (7) Pac-Man Results Revolver Ocelot – 48.75% Pac-Man – 51.25% Stats Year: 2005 Round: Round 1 Oracle Prediction: Pac-Man, 41.61% GameFAQs Brackets: Pac-Man, 38.36% My Prediction: Revolver Ocelot > Pac-Man Analysis It was quite interesting to watch the expectations of the board from when the bracket was first released to just before the match began. It was like looking at two different matches. Looking at the Oracle predictions doesn’t give any justice to how close people saw this match was going to be minutes before it began. When the bracket was released the match was a simple choice. Ocelot was just coming off of a respectable performance from the villains contest while Pac-Man was crushed by Luigi in the previous contest by more than what Bowser did against Ocelot plus his contest resume was not the best from losing to lettuce Kefka in 2003 and Scorpion in 2002. Many people even expected this likely to be Pac-Man’s final contest. Overall the initial expectation was Ocelot to thrash Pac-Man before losing to Yoshi in the next round. What made people concerned about this match happened through a few realizations throughout the month as we waited for the round to end. The biggest one was the general agreement that SFF can happen between characters not from the same company. This debate was mostly from what happened between Link and Mega Man in 2004, but it made sense that the same could happen between Luigi and Pac-Man. The next piece was that as a board we were giving Ocelot too much credit for his performance during the villains contest. While people were hesitant to use the x-stats from that contest they showed that Ocelot was not far off from Kefka and the guy only barely won the match in 2003. Sure lettuce Kefka probably hurt his performance, but given that Pac-Man suffered from SFF in 2004 this match has gone from easy win to Pac-Man having a respectable performance against Ocelot. What made people the most nervous was the release of the match picture. While it was not lettuce Kefka bad Pac-Man had a clear picture advantage, he was bright and yellow while Ocelot was old and brown and given that we now thought the match was going to be close you could almost sense that the board knew that their bracket was about to get burned. As the match started Pac-Man went up with an early lead and the board knew the match was close to being over given that we know Ocelot had a strong start during the villains contest. Ocelot was able to quickly take the lead, but he was gaining at a slow pace. Ocelot needed to build a large lead to offset his abysmal day vote, but his largest lead he was able to build was around 250 votes before Pac-Man began stalling. Once the morning came Pac-Man was off, retook the lead and never looked back. Ocelot was able to cut a couple hundred votes during the last few hours, but Pac-Man was never in danger and like that we’ve had two upsets during the last match of round 1 in a row. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest. |
Like
Knuckles vs. Magus pretty much the entire board was wrong on this
match, something we thought was impossible given the usage of x-stats
and yet it has happened twice in one round. However the reaction from
the board was quite different. While the board liked Ocelot people did
not mind as much about being wrong. Maybe it was because most people had
him losing in the next round instead of winning the division, but the
atmosphere was almost congratulatory towards Pac-Man. Did the picture
alter the results? Possibly, but I think we could agree that most people
did not give Pac-Man enough credit when making our brackets. It was thought that this performance would save Pac-Man from being forgotten in the next contest, but the format in 2006 quickly screwed him and many others out of a spot in that contest. For Ocelot on the other hand this was the first of many chokes that will occur during his contest career. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest. |
Best Strategy Game today. XCOM: Enemy Unknown seems to be doing pretty well on this site, as it managed to get a high x-stat value in GameSpot's contest.5 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
nintendofaqs oh my god --- xyzzy |
Heck yeah I was the first vote for Unstoppable Gorg Vote #146, too. --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
I was hoping Pokemon Conquest could win but I guess that's not going to happen. --- Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place |
This
polls proves that even NintendoFAQs cannot win a poll for Pokemon here.
XCOM: Enemy Unknown is just too far ahead of the competition here to
be in danger of losing. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
glad to see XCOM: Enemy Unknown getting the recognition it deserves, awesome game. --- ... |
Pokemon generally doesn't do well in GOTY polls anyway. --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
Pokemon
spinoffs like Pokemon Conquest are the games that don't do well in GotY
polls. Major Pokemon games like Black/White and Diamond/Pearl would be
much more successful in the GotY polls. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Except they weren't. I mean, they can win their handheld polls, but they don't do well in overall GOTY. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
has a handheld game ever come even close to winning a GOTY ? --- ... |
Yeah,
outside of HG/SS, GotY polls have always been brutal to Pokemon, and
even then HG/SS did 'well' by virtue of the only thing of any strength
that year being ME2. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Didn't Mario Kart DS put up a decent fight? I mean, sure that was RE4's year of domination, but making (getting second?) in the final poll isn't bad. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Mario Kart DS finished in second place in the 3-way GotY poll. That's the closest any handheld game has come to winning GotY. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
In case you were wondering, here are all of the GOTY top 3s by year on GameFAQs: 1999: 1. FFVIII 2. Soul Calibur 3. WWF Wrestlemania 2000 There were no GOTY polls in 2000 for some reason. 2001: 1. Final Fantasy X 2. Grand Theft Auto III 3. Super Smash Bros. Melee 2002: 1. Metroid Prime 2. Grand Theft Auto: Vice City 3. Kingdom Hearts 2003: 1. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker 2. Final Fantasy X-2 3. Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic 2004: 1. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas 2. Halo 2 3. Metroid Prime 2: Echoes 2005: 1. Resident Evil 4 2. Mario Kart DS 3. God of War 2006: 1. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess 2. Final Fantasy XII 3. Gears of War 2007: 1. Super Mario Galaxy 2. Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 3. Halo 3 2008: 1. Super Smash Bros. Brawl 2. Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots 3. Fallout 3 2009: 1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 2. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves 3. Dragon Age: Origins 2010: 1. Mass Effect 2 2. Super Mario Galaxy 2 3. God of War III 2011: 1. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword 3. Batman: Arkham City So Mario Kart DS is the only handheld game that even finished in the top 3, and RE4 dominated that final poll with 55%. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
I'm only coming up with three handheld games with real strength: Pokemon RBY Pokemon GSC Link's Awakening The format has always played a very tiny second fiddle to console offerings. --- Yoblazer: http://oi45.tinypic.com/2zguly0.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
LeonhartFour posted... LOL GameSpot There's several things you could have LOLed at GameSpot for doing: 1. Choosing the seeding for their BEST OF 2012 contest by assigning numbers to all 64 games and randomly picking numbers for each match-up. Basically, it means all of the matches were chosen randomly instead of choosing them based on the expected strength for each game. 2. Treating Xenoblade as a 2011 game, while GameFAQs did not see it as a 2011 game in their GotY polls. 3. Having a history of poorly run contests and failing to deal with vote stuffing. And I'm sure there's other stuff I haven't been able to think of. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Or I could LOL at you for making X-Stats for a GameSpot contest. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
I
see no problems making x-stats for a GameSpot contest. We've done it
for the previous GameSpot contests, even though they are useless when
dealing with GameFAQs contests. Also, this specific GameSpot contest
did not have any vote stuffing because you needed an account just to
vote, so these x-stats aren't tainted like the previous contests were. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I
appreciate the x-stats, Luster. I still can't take GameSpot's contests
seriously though, even if no super-obvious joke succeeded or cheating
occurred. XCOM having the biggest victory so far unfortunately doesn't mean it has a chance in the overall-GotY, but it's still nice to see. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona. |
What
is projected as GotY on Gamefaqs this year, anyway? I don't really keep
up with games much anymore outside of RPGs so I dunno what are the most
popular games of the year. --- http://i49.tinypic.com/2802o3b.jpg http://i49.tinypic.com/kapoj8.gif http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/4254/mayukokh4.jpg |
Pretty sure Mass Effect 3 is the heavy favorite. --- http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png |
Yep,
pretty sure ME3's the game to beat. Borderlands 2, Assassin's Creed 3,
or maybe even The Walking Dead has a shot if ME3 drops the ball though. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona. |
Walking Dead/ME3/AC3 for the top 3, Walking Dead takes it due to third entry SFF --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog |
I think XCOM is gonna take it this year. Mass Effect 3 has had too much backlash. --- SuperNiceDog took my lunch money. |
xcom is sucking here, and will suck in the final. this group is super weak. --- add the c and back away iphonesience |
Retro Analysis II: Kirby vs. L-Block vs. Laharl vs. Nathan Hale Results Kirby – 44.39% L-Block – 30.89% Laharl – 16.95% Nathan Hale – 7.78% Stats Year: 2007 Round: Round 1 Oracle Prediction: Kirby – 51.03%, Laharl – 19.04%, L-Block – 18.94%, Nathan Hale – 10.93% GameFAQs Brackets (Finishing in the Top 2): Kirby – 96.46%, L-Block – 32.77% My Prediction: Kirby > Laharl Analysis The inclusion of joke characters was and for some still is a controversy for regulars from the board. Most of it was directed towards L-Block given that he (it) was an object rather than a character like Mudkip. This of course led to endless discussions on how strong L-Block was and how much of an affect joke votes have on an entrant. I would like to think that I had a legitimate reason to pick Laharl over L-Block, but thinking back it was more like I boycotted the match and thought of any reason to justify picking Laharl. Even people who thought L-Block would be weak saw that you would have to be something special to lose to Laharl. Laharl was of course at the time the weakest recurring character in our contests. Arguments ranged from joke votes being meaningless, which by the time this match came around was proven wrong as both Bidoof and Mudkip were able to win plus L-Block being from Tetris would benefit from people just recognizing him to potential Nintendo SFF from Kirby, which I guess could have been true, but that may have not matter given Laharl as the opponent. To put things into perspective Donkey Kong with Mario in the poll would have likely won against Laharl and Ganondorf with Link would have had a respectable performance. Kirby has never shown the ability to SFF let alone get something big. The best argument probably was the picture. 3D Tetris is probably the worst you could get for L-Block. What happened at the beginning of the match shocked even the biggest L-Block supporters. L-Block was not only easily winning over Laharl, but he took the initial lead over Kirby. Even after Kirby took the lead L-Block was able to keep it close and lead for about 30 minutes which during this time the board was ringing the upset alarm. Eventually L-Block just ran out of steam and created one of the largest percentage collapses in contest history at the time. While the end percentage was a lot lower the opinion of the board was that L-Block had a performance that surpassed most people’s expectations. Nobody seriously knew what was going to happen to L-Block at this point, but the performance was still good enough that people began questioning whether L-Block had a chance of an upset in the next round. At the beginning of the contest very few people thought L-Block would have a chance at reaching the third round, but given this performance and that LFF was a significant factor adding Donkey Kong to the poll may be able to drag Kirby down enough to give L-Block the edge. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest. |
charmander6000 posted... To give this topic some more activity until the next contest I’ll be posting a series of retro analyses. Great idea... Love what you did so far... keep it up!!! --- Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru Champ and Rivalry Rumble Master |
Big Bob posted... I think XCOM is gonna take it this year. Mass Effect 3 has had too much backlash. Overrated factor. And yeah XCOM really isn't doing that great considering the competition. --- Leonhart posting from his phone |
worst vote total for a full 24 hour poll? --- ... |
ha, 24000 votes. this site, man. Borderlands 2 put up the same numbers against significantly better competition. that's the strongest game so far until we get them RPGs and action games. --- xyzzy |
Boudii posted... worst vote total for a full 24 hour poll? No, this is the worst vote total we've gotten for any 24 hour poll since the start of 2007: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4590 However, this year's Mobile Game GotY poll will almost certainly have a lower vote total than that poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
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