GameFAQs Contests

Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1046

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#51 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/19/2012 12:10:18 PM | message detail | (edited)
What is creativename's site? The one that has "lol x-stats?"

EDIT: Oh no, it's where match pics are stored. Doing a Google search for that states "this site may harm your computer."

Yeah, what happened?
#52 | TRE Public Account | Posted 7/19/2012 12:16:48 PM | message detail
The problem from before seems to be back. I've sent an e-mail to creativename about it.
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SuperNiceDog was not so nice to my bracket.
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the Rivalry Rumble Guru Contest!
#53 | ToadYoshi | Posted 7/19/2012 9:04:51 PM | message detail
Since contest discussion has been slow as of late, I thought I'd throw out an idea for a contest format that might be appealing both to Bacon and to contest gurus.

Character Battle Gauntlet

A number of characters are seeded. The first match is composed of the two lowest-seeded contest entrants; in a 128-character battle, the characters with seeds 128 and 127 would be in the first match. The winner of that match faces the 126th seed in the next match. The winner of that one faces the 125th seed and so on. The winner of each match faces the next character in seed order; a character can remain in the contest as long as that character keeps defeating increasingly strong competition. The winner of the 127th and final match [which will feature Link, the top-seeded entrant, against a lower-seeded challenger] will be the winner of the contest. Note that the actual number of entrants does not have to be divisible by a power of two; any number of entrants would possible.

Pros:
-This format completely sidesteps the weakness of a traditional NCAA Basketball-style bracket in that every match has the potential to be interesting. Outside of stuff like the Oracle challenge and spread betting, half of the matches in a traditional bracket contest are boring blowouts that nobody cares about [and that's a conservative estimate; for certain contests such as the rivalry contest, the total is significantly more than half]. There's normally no way to avoid terrible first round matchups of elite characters against fodder, but this format allows us to skip over them and replace them with actual close matches.
-A gauntlet contest would almost certainly be the least predictable contest since the magic that was 2002. Look at last contest, in which so many battle bracket entrants were perfect going into the final match that Bacon had to make an emergency rules change to ensure that there wasn't a 50+ way tie for first place. In a gauntlet format, nobody will be perfect. This has several benefits, including keeping everyone interested in the outcomes and excited for upcoming matches, allowing entrants to remain engaged in the tournament even if they miss a match, providing more opportunities for meaningful contest stats-crunching and discussion, and just being cooler to watch.
-This format is great for the battle contest. Instead of picking each match result and hoping to go perfect, there would be actual strategy in deciding when to bank. Bacon seems to be a fan of the battle contest, and the gurus seem to like it as well; this format allows the strategic decisions that make the battle contest appealing to actually matter.
-We get to have 1v1 matches. We've discussed the problems of SFF/LFF/whatever you want to call it long enough, and it's safe to say that 1v1s are the vastly-preferred format by those who care about discussing and analyzing contest matches.
-Link gets to be part of the tournament, but he doesn't mess everything else up. Bacon has mentioned that removing Link [a popular request from the Gurus] would interfere with the contest's purpose of generating excitement and drawing new users to the site. The problem is, Link has routinely prevented elite characters of comparable strength from meeting in a contest setting, leading to blowouts and boring contests for the gurus. This format provides a reasonable compromise on the Link issue; he is in the contest, he will win, and the potential new users can be excited, but contest veterans only have to deal with one predictable Link blowout as opposed to six or seven.
-Near the end of the contest, we get to have a string of near-elites and Noble Niners go at each other match after match. You know that feeling when we get four or five great matches in a row? Try twenty-plus great matches in a row.
#54 | ToadYoshi | Posted 7/19/2012 9:06:20 PM | message detail
-Every character has a chance to win a match. Every single one. Are you a fan of an obscure fodder character? You might see a victory against an even more obscure fodder character. That would be cool.
-This format has potential for otherwise-forgotten characters to go on great rallies. A game that might have been lost in the shuffle facing a superior opponent in a traditional tournament could catch fire and win a few matches, potentially forming a bandwagon and causing a great stir. That would be exciting for both contest aficionados and new users.
-The polls near the beginning of the contest featuring the lower-seeded character could easily take less than a day. 12-hour matches would be fine, and even 6-hour matches would be possible to be honest. The match length could easily be increased once the stronger characters start entering the contest, meaning that none of the elite matches are distorted by time trends, but the earlier, weaker matches don't drag on.


Cons:
-The absolute number one problematic, worrisome, potentially devastating pitfall this format could fall into is poor seeding. If this contest were seeded poorly, it could potentially ruin the whole thing. Imagine if the contest were seeded using a straight nomination scale that Bacon has used as of late. In all likelihood, some fodder characters would win a few matches until one of them inevitably runs into Mega Man X. X was a 13 seed in the winter 2010 contest, and would likely receive a similar seed this time. If he were actually seeded that low in a 128-character gauntlet format, he would likely go on a winning streak of at least 50 matches before facing an opponent who had a remote chance to defeat him. An unexpected run of ten to fifteen matches from an unexpected character would be exciting; an inevitable slaughter of 50 weaker entrants in a row would be mind-numbingly boring. This is why careful attention would have to be paid to seeding; in a fairly seeded bracket, the longest run would almost certainly be fewer than 20 matches and could even be in the single digits. That's a lot better than tuning in to watch Mega Man X win all day every day; nobody wants to see that. I feel that though the contest could be seeded in an extremely fair and sensible way that sets up interesting matches, Bacon might insist on using nomination-based seeding [which doesn't reflect actual contest strength] and create the situation mentioned above with regards to Mega Man X or another character. If Bacon is willing to listen to an elite group of contest experts [one might, on a whim, call them gurus] then this could work. But it would require Bacon to trust the users to help with the seeding, which admittedly is a leap of faith from a site administrator's standpoint. It would be a good risk, but Bacon would likely need some convincing.
-The contest doesn't live up to an abstract definition of 'fair.' Weaker characters must win many more matches than stronger ones in order to be the overall winner of the competition. While this would be a valid criticism for a luck-intensive competition such as the NCAA basketball tournament, over the years we've found luck to play a minor role in character battles. We all know Link is going to win anyway, so why not let the inevitable losers duke it out for a bit before reaching that conclusion? There's also the issue of being 'fairer' to characters by seeding them lower in order to allow them to win more matches or higher in order to allow them to advance further into the tournament [which is fairer/unfairer is completely subjective and depends on your perspective]. This is valid criticism, but any setup is going to have a certain amount of such inherent unfairness, and this is format intentionally attempts to place characters in matches as close to their level as possible, so such unfairness should actually be lower than normal. Also, these characters aren't real, they don't have feelings, and it doesn't matter if we're 'fair' to them as long as everyone's getting exciting matches and having a good time.
#55 | ToadYoshi | Posted 7/19/2012 9:07:17 PM | message detail
-The contest will feature weaker characters in the polls on average. It's no question that Mario v. Cloud is a bit more exciting than Servbot v. Tanner. However, to most, a close match between Servbot and Tanner is better than a blowout between Servbot and Mario. Bacon might be wary of this on the idea that stronger characters draw more votes and more new users to the site, but close matches are much more likely to inspire rallies, which could get new users interested in the contest and the site in general.

That's all I got for now. Bacon seems to like new contest formats, and this one might be great for us contest veterans. If he asks for feedback tickets regarding the next contest, submitting this idea en masse might sway him. I have to repeat, it's absolutely integral that the contest be seeded properly, or else the entire thing might turn into the Mega Man X show [and maybe the Crono show a bit past the halfway point]. If we can avoid that, remember that last contest we went through the entire first round without a team winning by less than 10%; this way, maybe we can replace those matches with good ones.

I'm definitely open to feedback and possible tweaking of this idea.
#56 | pjbasis | Posted 7/19/2012 9:20:18 PM | message detail
I definitely agree with some of those points, but it does fly in the face of some of the more...intangible good things about normal brackets.

I don't know how fun it will be to have back-to-back battles with a repeat character.

There's also a nice sense of order to a regular bracket, with characters in certain positions and a sense of tension when the higher seeds will clash with each other and what not.

You put a lot of thought into it and it's cool, but I think it's too "out there."
Though knowing Bacon it might have a shot at coming true!
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#57 | LOLContests | Posted 7/19/2012 10:06:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
Interesting idea. I wouldn't want it for every contest, but it would cool to see once.

In regards to the potential pitfall of an underseeded character going far, you could always institute a rule where after 20 or so matches a character is 'retired" for a little bit, and they wait in the wings to face the winner of the next ten matches.

Also, in regards to back to back matches with the same character being tiring, you could always have a system like:


Match 1: 128 vs. 127 (Winner)
Match 2: 126 (Winner) vs. 125
Match 3: 127 vs. 126 (Winner)
Match 4: 124 vs. 123 (Winner)
Match 5: 126 vs. 123

Would probably be more suspenseful, and would give more entrants a shot to win a match.

Edit:

Another potential problem would be how the 'bracket' was set up. The first idea I had was just simply asking people to predict 128 vs. 127, then the winner of that vs. the next seed and so on. However, that's a bad idea.

To use the MMX example: What if MMX runs into another underseeded character halfway through his run? Making the wrong decision between the two of them could screw you out of tons of points further on down the road. Instead, a ranking system would be best. Ask bracketers to rank the bottom 16 seeds from most popular to least popular, then ask them to rank the next 16 (plus the winner of the last group) from most popular to least popular, and so on and so on. That way the site would be able to auto calculate what people's predictions in any given match would be, so that seeding hiccups don't screw anyone over.
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#58 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 7/20/2012 12:41:05 AM | message detail
Sounds cool, but I'm not sure if I'd prefer it to a regular contest sans Link.

Better than a regular contest w/Link though!
#59 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/21/2012 11:58:50 AM | message detail
If we must have something new, then this IS a great idea....

But I would rather have a good old 128, 1v1 CB
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master
#60 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/21/2012 2:34:22 PM | message detail
I think he's just going to mix old ideas up.

Looking forward to the two month Tag Team Female Villains contest! 256 female villains will be the most entrants we've ever seen in a contest!
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
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#61 | Azp2k32 | Posted 7/21/2012 2:58:18 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
Interesting idea. I wouldn't want it for every contest, but it would cool to see once.

In regards to the potential pitfall of an underseeded character going far, you could always institute a rule where after 20 or so matches a character is 'retired" for a little bit, and they wait in the wings to face the winner of the next ten matches.

Also, in regards to back to back matches with the same character being tiring, you could always have a system like:


Match 1: 128 vs. 127 (Winner)
Match 2: 126 (Winner) vs. 125
Match 3: 127 vs. 126 (Winner)
Match 4: 124 vs. 123 (Winner)
Match 5: 126 vs. 123

Would probably be more suspenseful, and would give more entrants a shot to win a match.

Edit:

Another potential problem would be how the 'bracket' was set up. The first idea I had was just simply asking people to predict 128 vs. 127, then the winner of that vs. the next seed and so on. However, that's a bad idea.

To use the MMX example: What if MMX runs into another underseeded character halfway through his run? Making the wrong decision between the two of them could screw you out of tons of points further on down the road. Instead, a ranking system would be best. Ask bracketers to rank the bottom 16 seeds from most popular to least popular, then ask them to rank the next 16 (plus the winner of the last group) from most popular to least popular, and so on and so on. That way the site would be able to auto calculate what people's predictions in any given match would be, so that seeding hiccups don't screw anyone over.


In theory, that sounds good. Then you consider the matches once underseeded MMX goes on a rampage. You're very possibly looking at 30 matches in a row of MMX stomping someone. Even if you have a workaround for the bracket competition (which I'd also suggest just doing a dynamic battle challenge-style thing for), you likely end up with a LOT of boring matches that are probably worse than our normal boring matches in that we at least get some data about the unique entrants, whereas we're just seeing reaffirmation daily for a month straight that MMX is at x power level.
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#62 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/22/2012 8:04:38 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#63 | HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2012 6:39:46 AM | message detail
I've liked the gauntlet-idea for a long time. With so many close matches and a little attention to detail like the MMX-example, it would be great.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#64 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/24/2012 11:18:31 AM | message detail
creativenaaaaaaaaaame
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#65 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/25/2012 2:02:43 PM | message detail
The next contest will be a 128-character 1v1 contest, 12-hour matches for the first round, 24-hour matches after.

The twist is that each match will be held using GameFAQs polls at a random message board per match.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Previous LP's: http://lparchive.org/search/Mega64#results
#66 | redrocket | Posted 7/25/2012 4:32:35 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
The next contest will be a 128-character 1v1 contest, 12-hour matches for the first round, 24-hour matches after.

The twist is that each match will be held using GameFAQs polls at a random message board per match.


I can't wait to see Link Vs Cloud on the N-Gage hardware board!
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#67 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/26/2012 8:13:13 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#68 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 7/27/2012 6:09:00 AM | message detail
So how long until someone starts redoing every single contest match on this board?

And how long until we work on creating a bracket and running our own contest on this board?
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Previous LP's: http://lparchive.org/search/Mega64#results
#69 | LeonhartFour | Posted 7/27/2012 1:03:41 PM | message detail
From: Not_Wylvane | #068
So how long until someone starts redoing every single contest match on this board?

And how long until we work on creating a bracket and running our own contest on this board?


That's already being done!
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#70 | foxhead84 | Posted 7/27/2012 10:58:40 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
From: Not_Wylvane | #068
So how long until someone starts redoing every single contest match on this board?

And how long until we work on creating a bracket and running our own contest on this board?


That's already being done!


Where.... When... How....
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master
#71 | Haste_2 | Posted 7/28/2012 9:04:21 AM | message detail | (edited)
I would like to see SBAllen redo the contests by personally posting the polls on Board 8. Such an action for SC2K2 would be fitting for the 10-year anniversary of character contests.
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#72 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/29/2012 8:33:26 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#73 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 7/31/2012 8:34:35 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#74 | pjbasis | Posted 7/31/2012 8:35:17 PM | message detail
What would we do without you TRE?
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#75 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/2/2012 8:25:35 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#76 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/2/2012 8:27:13 PM | message detail
^ GOAT
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#77 | foxhead84 | Posted 8/4/2012 12:30:54 PM | message detail
Bump?!?!?
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Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master
#78 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/4/2012 12:42:31 PM | message detail
God, we need a contest.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#79 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/5/2012 7:51:16 PM | message detail
Bump
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#80 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/6/2012 4:41:44 PM | message detail
Polls are fun. I wish I could've made a poll for this stats topic.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Previous LP's: http://lparchive.org/search/Mega64#results
#81 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/7/2012 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Too bad this topic was made before we got polls in topics. Oh well, maybe the next stats topic could have a poll in it for the first time.
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#82 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/7/2012 9:13:24 PM | message detail
Love how I can watch porn with no problems but creativename's site still makes my virus scanners so haywire.

Fix that s***, son.
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#83 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/7/2012 9:14:54 PM | message detail
creativename should take his website offline while trying to fix his site. It's better to take the website offline so other people can't get infected, rather than keep the website online while trying to fix the problem.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#84 | Not_Wylvane (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/8/2012 10:29:27 AM | message detail
Speaking of porn,
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
Previous LP's: http://lparchive.org/search/Mega64#results
#85 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/9/2012 11:19:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
I just realized it's been 10 years since the 2002 contest. 10 years. An equal stretch going back in time from that contest brings us to 1992. Wow. I don't believe it.

*bursts into tears*
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#86 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2012 2:19:14 PM | message detail
Man, how has there been no indication of a contest yet. It seems as though the contests are getting more and more spread out as time goes one. When did the last one finish?
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#87 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2012 2:52:56 PM | message detail
End of December last year.

Seems a lot longer than that though because of how bad it was.
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#88 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/10/2012 3:00:35 PM | message detail
Is the stats topic always this dead during the offseason? It feels like previous ones had more discussion. Are we just running out of things to debate here?
#89 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/10/2012 3:13:45 PM | message detail
Need a contest so badly.
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#90 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/10/2012 6:08:58 PM | message detail
TheOneAboveAll posted...
Is the stats topic always this dead during the offseason? It feels like previous ones had more discussion. Are we just running out of things to debate here?


It's been like this for a few years now.
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Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place
#91 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/10/2012 7:48:02 PM | message detail
What even was the last contest? The rival contest? I think so, because I won Guru for decade, and rivals came after that one.

Amazing how the last 3-4 contest all seem to have blended together in my head.
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#92 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/10/2012 8:18:52 PM | message detail
The offseasons were filled with debate in the old days because there was still so much mystery. After so many contests, a lot of stuff has been learned and most everything has been debated to death by the regulars who still post here. Stats topic is full of old B8ers.
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#93 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/10/2012 10:04:16 PM | message detail
Well it's not like there still isn't a lot to debate on.

Like what SOTC's true nature could be come the next games contest.
#94 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/10/2012 10:06:03 PM | message detail
You know what's cool, if B8 became a little real-life town, the stats topic crew would be like the town council.
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#95 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/11/2012 12:28:18 AM | message detail | (edited)
I still like the gauntlet with FFVII seeded into the first match and OOT waiting in the final. Let's see if FFVII can go 126-0 before losing to OOT.

Or, we can have Link vs. The World. 127 matches. Link vs. someone in each and every one of them. For great justice and 127-0.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#96 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2012 12:42:50 AM | message detail
That would be absolutely disgusting to watch.

Even though The Legend of Zelda is my favorite video game series, I'm somehow disgusted when I see a good number of Zelda-related victories in GameFAQs contests.
#97 | PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/11/2012 12:55:51 AM | message detail
I wonder if known, longtime characters would turn less popular if they do something abhorrent in a game, like if Link were to rape Zelda.
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#98 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/11/2012 1:31:53 AM | message detail | (edited)
We may well be able to see that tested with Samus.

Does anyone here actually like her portrayal in Metroid: Other M? I don't, for the record.

For now, however, it's just one game and I don't hold it against her (honestly, just the game itself gives zero indication to me that it's meant to be a final statement on Samus's characterization. It's just all the stupid advertising and the cover art...sort of). She's still my favorite Nintendo character, and my ongoing playthrough of Metroid Prime can't help but remind me why (and why I like the series so much as well) at times.

Honestly, I can't really see why someone would start hating on Samus as a whole just because of MOM. Heck, most view Samus as someone who gamers have been able to imprint their own personality on - so why start hating on her as a whole solely because you don't like the developer's vision?

So, to answer your question, if a popular character did one thing abhorrent in their game, or even if they had one "bad" game (speaking of which, I somehow like ripping on Other M even though I really like that game and am really looking forward to replaying it soon, but dear god don't get delusional about it standing up to stuff like Prime. Probably an issue of me reminiscing on the series' good old days when playing Prime and ruminating on where Other M failed where Prime succeeded. Also, I feel as if Ico, SOTC, every MGS game, and every 3D Zelda game essentially gives me what I wanted from MOM - in particular, SOTC is arguably way more faithful to old-school Metroids than MOM is, and if I wanted to play a plot-driven Metroid, I'll just go play SOTC or a 3D Zelda), I don't think anything will happen.

On the other hand, a long chain of "meh" games, like what happened to Sonic and Mega Man, could be quite damaging, and then there's the issue of a popular character not getting a new game for god-knows-how-long (see also: Crono). There's a good chance that Samus will fall into that latter category down the line, although I do have a feeling that we at least won't have to wait eight years for another Metroid.
#99 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/11/2012 1:48:24 AM | message detail
I can imagine the reaction of half of this topic to a Link matches only contest. It would be so, so, funny though.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#100 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/11/2012 2:43:35 AM | message detail
A gauntlet where Link has a match every single day may be the only way he'll lose because at some point, some group of people somewhere are going to organize an effort to make him lose.
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