GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1046
300 posts of this topic will be dedicated to Luster's in-depth analysis of carbonated beverage polls. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
Something
has to keep these topics going during the offseason. I'm pretty sure
every bit of contest minutiae worth discussing has already been mined in
the past ten years of contests and offseasons. All we really have left
is Luster spending more time analyzing each regular poll than most
people do the actual contests. Goofy or not, he's pretty much single-handedly keeping the Stats topics alive at this point. --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
Maybe I made this too soon. The other topic has a week's worth of posts to go! --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
Not_Wylvane posted... Something has to keep these topics going during the offseason. I'm pretty sure every bit of contest minutiae worth discussing has already been mined in the past ten years of contests and offseasons. All we really have left is Luster spending more time analyzing each regular poll than most people do the actual contests. During the past month, I've only posted trend charts for 2 polls. 2 polls out of the last 30 we've had. I did the trend chart for the continent poll and also a trend chart for the "Hot enough for ya?" poll. I also did a trend chart for the poll about subtitles/dubbing in Japanese video games, but I never posted those because they weren't extreme enough. Not_Wylvane posted... 300 posts of this topic will be dedicated to Luster's in-depth analysis of carbonated beverage polls. XD at Wylvane. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Polls for the next several days: 7/6/2012 - Got PlayStation 3? 7/7/2012 - Got Vita? 7/8/2012 - Got Wii? 7/9/2012 - Got Xbox 360? 7/10/2012 - Got Smartphone? 7/11/2012 - Got Tablet? 7/12/2012 - Got a gaming-quality PC? --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
3DS ownership is now currently at 36.11% as of yesterday's poll. I just updated this list again: https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDZFV2I1SFl4VXFDMjQ2RmJqUXJTd0E The 3DS has been gaining very little ownership since last Christmas. Ownership has only gone up by 2.56% since last year's Christmas. I imagine the 3DS won't be gaining much ownership at all until the 3DS XL comes out. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
neonreaper posted... Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012? The continent poll. It has the most extreme trends. Besides the continent poll, it would also be the soda poll and the age poll. This year's age poll was more boring because the trends were much weaker as a result of being on the weekend. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
no one cares about the Vita --- ... |
Vita
is still struggling nearly 5 months later. Vita's ownership right now
is almost identical to what the 3DS had on its launch date, and that's
considering the Vita has already been out for nearly 5 months. I thought the Vita would have better ownership than this, based off of this poll: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=4637 Vita had 6.68% ownership in that poll, with another 6.58% saying that they plan on getting it soon. Out of the 6.58% that said they would be getting one soon, only 3.62% of those people actually got a Vita (bringing ownership up to 10.30% right now). --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
"No, I'm done with Nintendo consoles" wow that's extreme I voted 'Yes, but I don't really play it anymore' although I still play from time to time, mainly my precious FE games. --- ... |
Over
45% of the site rarely or never plays their Wii anymore? Hot damn,
that's insane. More extreme than I was expecting. That also ties in
very strongly with the decline of the Wii on this site. Update on system ownership: PS3 is now at 64.51%, previously at 63.28% in the last PS3 poll. Vita is now at 12.17%, previously at 6.68%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I voted for the first option. I don't have my Wii yet but I have loose plans of replaying some Zelda and Metroid games soon. |
LinkMarioSamus posted... I voted for the first option. I don't have my Wii yet but I have loose plans of replaying some Zelda and Metroid games soon. Hey hey, just like me... I don't have a Wii, but since I have a cousin who almost bought one, I voted for the first option... XD --- Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #008 neonreaper posted...Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012? Luster literally told me when I should vote, such was his interest in the continent poll --- Official Board 8 ~RECORD SETTER~ |
foxhead84 posted... LinkMarioSamus posted...I voted for the first option. I don't have my Wii yet but I have loose plans of replaying some Zelda and Metroid games soon. Well I already own a Wii and have owned one since the 2007 Winter Holidays. I simply don't have it with me right now, but I will in about 2-3 weeks. |
From: XIII_rocks | #015 From: -LusterSoldier- | #008neonreaper posted...Luster what is your favorite poll from the first half of 2012? But that would be influencing the trends! What kind of statistical analyst would try to manipulate data to befit his view of how the data should look? Oh yeah, a lot of them. --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
Bump --- Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place |
Xbox
360 ownership went from 59.40% (in the 7/6/2011 poll) to 59.64% in the
recent batch of "Got Console?" polls. I think the Xbox 360 has a chance
of breaking 60% ownership eventually. iPhone also improved itself by going from 17.83% to 19.56%. However, it was the Android that got a bigger boost, as it went from 29.55% to 33.85% in a span of about 6 1/2 months. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Bump --- Pokemon VGC2012 Canadian Nationals - 8th place |
I
guess LoL won't be lighting any fires in these contests. Well, maybe
the game itself could edge above the fodder line, but I certainly
wouldn't waste time nominating any heroes from it. --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
From
Christmas 2011 till the latest round of polls, PS3 ownership increased
from 63.28% to 64.51%, or by 1.23%. 3DS ownership, over the same period,
increased from 33.55% to 36.11%, or by 2.56%. I'd expected the 3DS to
jump up a bit quicker than that. --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
I think LoL could go a few rounds with good placement in a games contest. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Would you pick League of Legends to beat any of the following? Grand Theft Auto IV Sonic Adventure Ico Skies of Arcadia Soulcalibur Gears of War Persona 4 I'd probably pick LoL to beat all of them other than GTAIV and Gears. |
LoL
won't win more than one match in a games contest. Not when it
currently has a playrate of 25.73%. By comparison, WoW has a playrate
of 40.66% in a poll near the end of 2010. Kotetsu534 posted... From Christmas 2011 till the latest round of polls, PS3 ownership increased from 63.28% to 64.51%, or by 1.23%. 3DS ownership, over the same period, increased from 33.55% to 36.11%, or by 2.56%. I'd expected the 3DS to jump up a bit quicker than that. I was a bit surprised at the very slow growth of the 3DS since last Christmas. Now that the 3DS XL was announced a few weeks ago, I expect very little growth until the 3DS XL gets released. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
-LusterSoldier- posted... WoW has a playrate of 40.66% in a poll near the end of 2010. So...how big is WoW's anti-vote base then? |
I have no idea. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Strange
poll today. The trends will be quite interesting because people from
Europe are way more likely to have visited France compared to countries
outside of Europe. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I'm confused on whether to vote yes or no, because I've been to a French territory, but not the mainland. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
I wouldn't count French territories as the country of France. So that would be "No" in your situation. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #028 Strange poll today. It's Bastille Day (French equivalent of Independence Day). --- http://i.minus.com/iH9vIGOBoyTQ2.gif |
Oh, so that explains why we had that poll. I was confused as to why we had that poll. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
LinkMarioSamus posted... Would you pick League of Legends to beat any of the following? I'd probably pick all of them to beat LoL other than ICO --- Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master |
Even after Ico possibly boosted due to its HD re-release? Not to mention Ico finished ahead of Persona 4 in the (LOL) GOTD x-stats. |
A Link vs. Batman poll on TDKR's release day would be cool. (So contest starved.) --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/63426972 So, I just got a petition posted to have the Poll of the Day displayed on 2 different parts of the site. If this is implemented, you will also see the Poll of the Day located on the main boards page, located above the "Board Information" box. I think this actually help out vote totals, because some people bookmark the link to the GameFAQs boards and don't feel like visiting the front page just to vote in the poll. As a result, these people can bypass the front page of the site without ever seeing the poll. I know Ulti said a while ago that he likes that suggestion. If you want to know more information about the petition, you can check out the topic I just linked to. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Random question, actually on-topic! Zelda is basically the king of SFF. Is it reasonable to assume Twilight Princess overperformed on Brawl in that Game of the Decade match? --- `•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´ "We're only gonna score 17 points?" -LOL Tom Brady |
It would be reasonable to assume, but not for that reason unless we want to hail Fallout 3 as the prince of SFF. --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
The FO3 match could have been that way for a completely different reason, so assuming one does not have to assume the other. Still, I thought SFF theory only applied to the winner's overperformance. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0 |
Still, I thought SFF theory only applied to the winner's overperformance. That's still up for debate, with Mario Vs. Samus being one of the more infamous ones of years past. I still think that SSB got some kind of rSFF against SMB in the Series Contest. More so because of how high Sonic looked rather than anything else. --- My bracket wasn't good enough to beat SuperNiceDog's in the GameFAQS Rivalry Rumble. Congrats! This is Yesmar. |
From: pjbasis | #039 The FO3 match could have been that way for a completely different reason, so assuming one does not have to assume the other. I'm just saying there's a simpler explanation than rSFF. --- http://i.imgur.com/eqOQs.gif |
LOLContests posted... I still think that SSB got some kind of rSFF against SMB in the Series Contest. More so because of how high Sonic looked rather than anything else. I also think there might have been rSFF in that match as well. I know the Oracle Challenge heavily overestimated what SMB would get in that match. The average Oracle prediction for SMB was 70.11% and the actual result ended up being 61.76%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
so... no contest this summer ?!? --- Congratulation to SuperNiceDog. Guru champ and Rivalry Rumble master |
The
contest idea is still being worked out right now. Also, Bacon needs to
submit his contest to CBSi to get it approved, because it will involve
monetary prizes. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
He's coming up with another idea? Oh boy. --- Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994 |
Everybody knows you can't have normal contests any more Gimmicks are the future! More Great Mighty Poo for everyone! --- "I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now." |
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/vc3jz/i_am_the_administrator_of_gamefaqscom_ama/c53ojnn Based on that comment, Bacon is suggesting the next contest will be another Character Battle with a different idea compared to previous Character Battles. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
I'm getting some sort of warning from chrome when I visit Gamefaqscontests.com. --- Fett is ****ing crafty. Don't underestimate him.- Blade The Fettbox - http://fettbox.byethost8.com/ |
UltimaterializerX posted... Random question, actually on-topic! From your own PCAs for BGE2 (maybe not verbatim, oh well): "It's rare to see Zelda suffer even one point of SFF, but it happened here. Throw Brawl out of the poll and Twilight Princess scores 1st or 2nd very easily." Honest answer: No. There may not have been any SFF in that match. Either that, or Brawl was the one using the SFF. I would also honestly argue that Twilight Princess didn't overperform against Brawl in the same way that Fallout 3 did (and honestly, Fallout 3 is likely worth around 40% on Brawl normally). Oh well that contest had such a stupid final between two horribly overrated games, and the worse one somehow won. Argh. If only something actually deserving like, say, Shadow of the Colossus had won... Also, we need to petition for another 128 1v1 character battle with the 24-hour matches starting a round earlier. |
I'm getting some warning from virus scanners whenever I try to visit creativename's site. --- `•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´ The measure of a man is what he does with power. |
