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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1045

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#351 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/8/2012 12:53:28 PM | message detail
From: TRE Public Account | #347
-LusterSoldier- posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Stop trying to reconcile results from another site with what would happen on GameFAQs. They're not the same.


I am well aware that the results from another site aren't going to match what would happen on GameFAQs. I'm just surprised that the match on Konami's site played out like there was no SFF at all. On GameFAQs, SFF is almost certainly going to happen.


We don't have the percentages for Round 3 and onward. We have no idea if there was any SFF in Solid Snake vs Naked Snake.

We could estimate the percentages using LMS-stats!

All we need is to look up how many positions the higher Snake has ranked in Edge magazine over the lower Snake, and then compare that difference to the number of MGS3 LP's on Youtube compared to MGS1 LP's to determine the percentage.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#352 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2012 12:57:27 PM | message detail
TRE Public Account posted...
I don't really understand what you are trying to get at with the second point. No one has said SFF is a GameFAQs only phenomenon.


I'm aware no one has said that SFF is a GameFAQs only thing. Also, I never tried to say it's a GameFAQs only thing either. I only pointed out that SFF can happen outside of GameFAQs and then provided an example of SFF happening outside of GameFAQs.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#353 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/8/2012 4:25:25 PM | message detail
EPIC POLL ALERT

On 6/10/2012, there will be another continent poll. I tracked poll updates for this same poll back in 2010. I'm disappointed that this upcoming continent poll will be on the weekend like the one from 2010, but I can't complain about a poll that will have the most extreme trends ever known to man.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#354 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/8/2012 4:45:44 PM | message detail
Final match of the Konami contest is up:
http://www.konami.com/e3/battle/

Metal Gear Rex takes out The Boss to meet Naked Snake in the final. I wonder if the fact that The Boss faced Naked Snake for the first third of Round 5 had anything to do with this. >_>

The vote icon isn't getting highlighted when I vote so I'm not sure if votes are really being accepted right now.
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We'll show her the power of a dream.
#355 | pjbasis | Posted 6/8/2012 6:00:48 PM | message detail
Voted Rex for revenge and as an MGS1 rep
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#356 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/8/2012 9:07:17 PM | message detail
The Konami contest final match seems to be accepting votes now. The vote icons will light up now.
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We'll show her the power of a dream.
#357 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 3:31:22 AM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #353
EPIC POLL ALERT

Nobody else cares alert
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#358 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 6:11:51 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#359 | The Mana Sword | Posted 6/9/2012 6:13:37 AM | message detail
OWNED
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I'm no longer a Nadal supporter. Andy Murray is my new favorite player/person. -Princess Anri
#360 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/9/2012 6:37:00 AM | message detail | (edited)
From: LeonhartFour | #357
From: -LusterSoldier- | #353
EPIC POLL ALERT

Nobody else cares alert

Do you not like EPIC CONTINENT POLLS?
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#361 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 7:01:02 PM | message detail
Just 2 hours left until the continent poll starts. This will be exciting.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#362 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:01:31 PM | message detail
For nobody else.
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#363 | XIII_rocks | Posted 6/9/2012 7:02:32 PM | message detail
I've been told to vote at a specific time for this poll >_>
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#364 | pjbasis | Posted 6/9/2012 7:02:48 PM | message detail
Continent polls prove are like updates on regional trends!

Kinda
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#365 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:03:33 PM | message detail
From: XIII_rocks | #363
I've been told to vote at a specific time for this poll >_>

Luster trying to invalidate the legitimacy of the poll by rigging vote times.
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#366 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 7:12:01 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
For nobody else.


That opinion applies only to yourself. Your posts do not represent the opinions of everybody else.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#367 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:13:21 PM | message detail
From: -LusterSoldier- | #366
LeonhartFour posted...
For nobody else.


That opinion applies only to yourself. Your posts do not represent the opinions of everybody else.

The sound of crickets chirping in this topic as you talk about trends for meaningless polls tell the story pretty well.
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#368 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 7:23:04 PM | message detail
Shut up.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#369 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:23:34 PM | message detail
#370 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 7:24:59 PM | message detail
Once again, you stated an opinion that only applies to yourself. You are not authorized to make opinions for other people.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#371 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:27:16 PM | message detail
You are not qualified to state that this opinion only applies to myself.
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#372 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 7:28:02 PM | message detail
What makes you think that?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#373 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/9/2012 7:28:48 PM | message detail
Unless you're secretly a mind reader, you have no idea how anyone else feels.

Well, I'm pretty sure it's obvious how Wylvane feels because he openly mocks how excited you get over pointless polls.
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http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png
#374 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 9:47:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
So, North America started out this poll with 88.95% at the freeze. Back in 2010, it had 88.01% at the freeze. So it looks like North America is doing slightly better this time around, but that can quickly change with just a few updates.

Also, out of the 2 votes for Africa, neither of them are actually from Africa (based on the poll maps). It took until vote 285 for Africa to get a vote. Africa only had 2 votes at the freeze in this poll, while it had 7 votes at the freeze in the 2010 poll.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#375 | pjbasis | Posted 6/9/2012 9:17:50 PM | message detail
Cast my vote.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#376 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 10:02:53 PM | message detail
At the end of the first hour, North America has 85.31% while Europe has 2.99%. In the poll from 2010, North America had 87.70% and Europe had 1.98% at the end of the first hour. It looks like North America is doing worse this time around.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#377 | HaRRicH | Posted 6/9/2012 10:03:38 PM | message detail
While Leonhart's banter is funny and mostly true, I'd rather read Luster's updates than bump the topic. Then again, I've also wondered why Luster hasn't posted info about the updates to each day's poll regardless of its contest-relevance.

I hope SB selects my poll-suggestion for tomorrow..."One year later: was Duke Nukem Forever worth the wait?" We haven't seen it in a single poll since its release, so let's settle this now that its controversy's come and gone.
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Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#378 | DomaDragoon | Posted 6/9/2012 10:41:33 PM | message detail
Some polls are just boring. This one is important for contests for multiple reasons:

-Determining the general demographic of the site and how it's changing/changed.
-Checking how "honest" voters are.
-As a non-opinionated poll, it might be better to see how votals really are.
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Congrats to SuperNiceDog, your 2011 Guru Champion!
#379 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/9/2012 10:48:58 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
While Leonhart's banter is funny and mostly true, I'd rather read Luster's updates than bump the topic. Then again, I've also wondered why Luster hasn't posted info about the updates to each day's poll regardless of its contest-relevance.

I hope SB selects my poll-suggestion for tomorrow..."One year later: was Duke Nukem Forever worth the wait?" We haven't seen it in a single poll since its release, so let's settle this now that its controversy's come and gone.


The poll for tomorrow will be "How long do you usually wait before buying new games?", so your poll not be used tomorrow.

The reason why I don't make a post everyday about each poll's contest relevance is because most polls aren't relevant to the contests.


DomaDragoon posted...
Some polls are just boring. This one is important for contests for multiple reasons:

-Determining the general demographic of the site and how it's changing/changed.
-Checking how "honest" voters are.
-As a non-opinionated poll, it might be better to see how votals really are.


I will agree that polls asking for your opinion about something are more likely to have poor votals. Such as yesterday's poll about who won E3.

Generally, I'm most interested in polls related to demographics because those have some relevance to the contests. An age poll can be used to determine the average age of the users on this site, which is important to properly assess the overall status of the ASV (which is getting weaker).
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#380 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 12:27:47 AM | message detail
Well, it certainly looks like North America is doing worse this time around compared to the poll in 2010. North America will probably end up with more than one update this hour where it gets under a 60% update. In the 2010 poll, North America had its first update under 60% on the 4:01 AM update.

In the 2010 poll, North America first lost an update to Europe on the 5:11 AM update. But this time around, North America could be losing updates to Europe as early as 4:30 AM.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#381 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 1:40:02 AM | message detail
At 4:37 AM, Europe just won its first update against North America. It was only a 1 vote cut, but that was all.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#382 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/10/2012 1:51:00 AM | message detail
I hope you're not actually staying up all 24 hours constantly taking updates every five minutes.

You should really hire an intern. Maybe Leonhart would be interested!
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#383 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 2:14:08 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
I hope you're not actually staying up all 24 hours constantly taking updates every five minutes.

You should really hire an intern. Maybe Leonhart would be interested!


I'm not going to ask Leonhart to help out.

I am using a download manager to repeatedly download the poll results page to my computer in the form of an HTML file. The download manager is set up to download the poll results page about once a minute. So I can track all 24 hours without being at my computer. That means I could sleep while still tracking poll updates automatically. Now, I still have to manually retrieve the vote totals from the HTML files and input them into the spreadsheet. So the entire process is not 100% automated.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#384 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 6/10/2012 9:04:47 AM | message detail
True/False: 50% of all GameFAQs traffic is solely from Luster.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#385 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 11:39:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
False. I can't even generate that much traffic.

Also, first 14 hours of trends so far:

Time | Africa | Asia | Oceania | Europe | North/South America
1:00 | 0.74% | 4.12% | 4.07% | 2.99% | 85.31% | 2.77%
2:00 | 0.57% | 5.32% | 5.70% | 4.37% | 81.03% | 3.02%
3:00 | 0.48% | 5.99% | 6.07% | 10.82% | 74.68% | 1.96%
4:00 | 0.97% | 6.88% | 6.45% | 23.61% | 59.96% | 2.13%
5:00 | 0.86% | 8.01% | 6.29% | 35.13% | 48.23% | 1.49%
6:00 | 0.48% | 7.19% | 7.25% | 46.53% | 37.54% | 1.02%
7:00 | 0.75% | 7.89% | 5.49% | 50.89% | 34.16% | 0.82%
8:00 | 0.53% | 6.79% | 5.15% | 40.73% | 45.00% | 1.81%
9:00 | 0.55% | 5.35% | 3.88% | 33.79% | 53.91% | 2.52%
10:00 | 0.39% | 5.61% | 2.91% | 23.46% | 63.70% | 3.94%
11:00 | 0.55% | 4.64% | 2.22% | 19.20% | 69.57% | 3.82%
12:00 | 0.54% | 3.85% | 1.52% | 17.51% | 72.33% | 4.24%
13:00 | 0.31% | 2.58% | 1.01% | 15.69% | 75.87% | 4.55%
14:00 | 0.94% | 2.04% | 0.53% | 15.51% | 76.29% | 4.69%

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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#386 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 4:25:35 PM | message detail
North America has yet to break 70% in this poll. At this point in time during the 2010 poll, North America already had 72.09%. Right now, North America is only at 69.20%. North America will definitely break 70% before the end of the poll, but 71% is very unlikely now.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#387 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 6/10/2012 10:46:38 PM | message detail
Wow, I didn't expect North America to reach 71% before the end of the poll. In fact, it reached exactly 71% on the final update of the poll. North America doing almost 3% worse in this poll is blamed on the rather low turnout from North America. Just 72.42% of the votes were from North America, beating out the previous record of 73.13% in a poll from last year.

In this poll, 97.88% of the voters picked the correct option. In the 2010 poll, it was 97.98% and 97.83% in the 2009 poll.

Full trend chart for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdDNQVlhKS25zMGFvUVpfZ1VSOUVDYnc&gid=2

Everything is very similar to the 2010 poll. In almost every single hour of the day, North America did worse in the 2012 poll compared to the 2010 poll. The only exceptions here were the 5:00 AM, 6:00 AM, 1:00 PM (just barely), and the 11:00 PM hours, where North America did better in those 4 hours in the 2012 poll compared to the 2010 poll.

The 4:00 AM hour was a little strange in yesterday's poll. North America had both a 71.12% update and a 44.87% update in the same hour, just 35 minutes apart from each other.

When Europe got its first cut at 4:37 AM, North America didn't completely collapse like what happened in the 2010 poll. After the 4:37 AM update, North America continued to add onto the lead, maxing out its lead at 5:12 AM with a monster 50% update. North America had a lead of 8832 at 5:12 AM when Europe would finally start up a total assault. Europe won every update from 5:17 AM to 7:28 AM except for the 6:48 AM update (2 vote gain for North America). In the 2010 poll, Europe won its last update at 7:52 AM and at 7:28 AM for the 2012 poll. Overall, Europe cut the lead from 8832 down to 8375. That's 457 votes cut off of North America's lead (871 votes cut in the 2010 poll).

Direct comparison between the trend charts for the 2010 poll and 2012 poll: http://i.imgur.com/SmsIp.png

That will make it much easier to see how similar the trends were between the 2 polls.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#388 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/12/2012 10:06:54 PM | message detail
http://konami.com/e3/battle/

Congrats to Naked Snake! No percentage results so we have no idea how the later matches went. Even the matches were SFF fests I would have liked to have seen the results. Especially Solid vs Naked.
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We'll show her the power of a dream.
#389 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/13/2012 2:49:53 AM | message detail
Justice.
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#390 | pjbasis | Posted 6/13/2012 2:50:58 AM | message detail
Oh well.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#391 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/13/2012 3:50:13 AM | message detail
Do you guys think that Ico (which I'm actually playing through for the first time!) could be stronger now after its HD re-release?
#392 | Lopen | Posted 6/13/2012 3:57:12 AM | message detail
LMS's first game

Someone get the camera
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#393 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 6/13/2012 4:46:51 AM | message detail
My first game on a non-Nintendo console, yes.
#394 | Lopen | Posted 6/13/2012 5:27:32 AM | message detail
I don't think Nintendo has rights to Let's Play videos but I admittedly may be behind on the issue
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No problem!
This is a cute and pop genocide of love!
#395 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 6/14/2012 9:04:55 PM | message detail
Bump
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We'll show her the power of a dream.
#396 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 6/14/2012 9:46:30 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
#397 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 6/15/2012 10:08:57 PM | message detail
I... was modded for that? What?
#398 | LeonhartFour | Posted 6/15/2012 10:15:32 PM | message detail
#399 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 6/15/2012 10:56:00 PM | message detail | (edited)
I know I saw that post, but I have no idea what was in it.

Give me a hint?
#400 | MegaWentEvil | Posted 6/15/2012 11:26:56 PM | message detail
All I posted was a complaint about gamefaqscontests.com's gallery being unavailable.