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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1045

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#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 4/11/2012 8:03:57 PM | message detail
Offseason sucks.



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 4/11/2012 8:05:10 PM | message detail
Especially when the contest before it sucked worse.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#3 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/11/2012 8:05:19 PM | message detail
too soon

Won't need this for another couple weeks at least
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#4 | My Immortal | Posted 4/12/2012 12:25:54 PM | message detail
Won't need this for another couple weeks at least

lawl
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http://www.backloggery.com/myimmortal
#5 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 4/12/2012 12:35:37 PM | message detail

From: LeonhartFour | #003
too soon

Won't need this for another couple weeks at least


LOLOLOL

Play EarthBound.
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•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.~*ST*~.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•´¯`•.,¸¸,.•
Every man lives. Not every man truly dies.
#6 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/12/2012 12:36:13 PM | message detail
I have it on good authority that the next contest we're getting is Game of the Decade. See you guys in 2019.
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TRUE B8UCA Lightweight Champion. WORSHIP ME!
#7 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2012 1:06:54 PM | message detail
I was being sarcastic.

Earthbound sucks.

That was not sarcastic.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#8 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 4/12/2012 1:39:51 PM | message detail
Earthbound > Mother 3
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#9 | pjbasis | Posted 4/12/2012 1:41:34 PM | message detail
Let's hope Chris and Leon get huge boosts because of RE6.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#10 | Boudii | Posted 4/12/2012 2:10:00 PM | message detail | (edited)
Let's hope RE6 is actually a good game
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#11 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2012 2:10:54 PM | message detail
Let's hope Jill's name change won't cause too much confusion for her in the contests.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#12 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/12/2012 3:07:04 PM | message detail
What's her name being changed to?
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#13 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/12/2012 3:08:47 PM | message detail
Jill Redfield.

Apparently she married Chris after the events of RE5.
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"I couldn't stand a day without a past or future. I need to live each moment to keep fighting here and now."
#14 | HaRRicH | Posted 4/13/2012 12:48:15 PM | message detail
That may not be too bad contest-wise since Redfield's a popular RE-name anyway. Still, what kind of precedent is there for characters facing name-changes? Squall seemed to do fine after becoming Leonhart in the KH-series, though that was already his last name. Aeris becoming Aerith didn't seem to have an immediate effect either, though lots of people called her Aerith before too. Are there other relevant examples?
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http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg
Nominate SuperNiceDog's Guru-choice, then Epona.
#15 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 4/13/2012 1:27:26 PM | message detail
Maybe she'll go by Jill Valentine-Redfield for contest purposes?
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http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
TRUE B8UCA Lightweight Champion. WORSHIP ME!
#16 | Boudii | Posted 4/13/2012 9:16:34 PM | message detail
Man these polls are bringing painful votals -_-
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#17 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/13/2012 9:19:41 PM | message detail
I noticed right away that today's poll was getting very bad vote totals.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#18 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/14/2012 1:48:23 AM | message detail
Another case of North America vs. The World in today's poll. Trends for today are going to be extreme.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#19 | BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 4/14/2012 7:00:28 AM | message detail
We neeeeeed a contest
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Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite?
However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog
#20 | voltch | Posted 4/14/2012 8:11:34 AM | message detail
Site i dyyyyyyyying.
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Dr voltchball - best in the world.
#21 | charmander6000 | Posted 4/14/2012 10:01:48 PM | message detail
People picking the only option they know I see.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls
Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest.
#22 | Sorozone | Posted 4/14/2012 10:03:50 PM | message detail
Westwood, how I miss you.
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#23 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2012 4:04:19 PM | message detail
Poll trends for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdC1YZlc5aHdmLXMtenlKOG56V0RQeHc&gid=1

The fourth poll option had an excellent board vote and Power Hour, while the last poll option did terrible during that time. The first 3 options performed above average during the board vote and Power Hour.

Early on in the poll, the third poll option was going even with the last poll option until about 2:20 AM, when the last poll option started to pull away for good.

During the night vote, the first 4 options all collapsed while the last poll option dominated the night vote, at least the later part of it. The fourth poll option did not lose a single update until 4:02 AM, when the last poll option finally got its first cut of the poll. After the first cut, the fourth poll option would go on to reach a maximum lead of 2049. The last poll option managed to cut about 400 votes off that lead and got the lead down to 1637 at 7:59 AM.

The early part of the morning vote was all about the fourth poll option doing terrible, while the last poll option was still dominating. After the last poll option won an update at 8:29 AM, it did not win a single update again until 7:50 PM.

The later part of the morning vote was when the fourth poll option started to dominate the poll again, while the last poll option collapsed. The fourth poll option dropped all the way down to 40.72% at 9:05 AM. After that point, it gained about 3% during the rest of the poll. The last poll option got all the way up to 28.98% at 8:39 AM before going back down again. The last poll option lost about 4% for the rest of the poll after getting up to 28.98%. The first poll option reached its lowest percentage at 8:24 AM, while the second poll reached its lowest percentage at 8:09 AM before they started going up again. The third poll option struggled to use the morning vote to go up in percentage, as it reached its lowest percentage at 11:05 AM before making any serious attempt to go back up again.

The first 3 options also started doing better once the later part of the morning vote kicked in. This continued throughout the day vote and the SNV as well. The fourth poll option had some of its best hours near the end of the poll, while the last poll option did worst in the SNV.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#24 | pjbasis | Posted 4/15/2012 4:41:22 PM | message detail
Is that suggesting only America has those things or something?
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#25 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2012 4:54:52 PM | message detail
It seems like only the US and Canada has those things, based on the results for different countries and continents. It's less common in Canada than the US, going by the results of Canada when compared to the US.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#26 | pjbasis | Posted 4/15/2012 5:22:50 PM | message detail
Weird, is it illegal in other countries?

Can't imagine a little extra printing on receipts would be too costly.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#27 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/15/2012 5:40:39 PM | message detail
I don't think it's illegal in other countries, it's just that other countries don't print surveys on the receipts.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#28 | Boudii | Posted 4/15/2012 10:06:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
"Nobody, I play alone" is doing a lot better than it did last time, as of now.
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#29 | pjbasis | Posted 4/15/2012 10:22:11 PM | message detail

From: -LusterSoldier- | #027
I don't think it's illegal in other countries, it's just that other countries don't print surveys on the receipts.


Was that...was that supposed to be a joke?
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#30 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2012 2:19:53 AM | message detail
No, it's not a joke.

Boudii | Posted 4/16/2012 1:06:57 AM | message detail | quote | (edited)
"Nobody, I play alone" is doing a lot better than it did last time, as of now.


I think that's got something to do with the increasing age of the site's users. I think younger people would be more likely to play with their friends, so I am expecting the second poll option to get the ASV while the first poll option goes down with the ASV. Though I'm not going to bother making trend charts for this poll.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#31 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/16/2012 9:07:00 PM | message detail
Took until vote 423 for the first poll option to get its first vote. Also, I noticed that today's poll used the same set of poll options used in the 8/5/2008 poll, while the 8/1/2007 and 8/8/2011 polls used an entirely different set of poll options.


As for yesterday's poll, I was correct in saying the first poll option would collapse with the ASV (it lost about 1% with the ASV), but I was incorrect when I said the second poll option would get the ASV. Instead, it was the third poll option that got the ASV. The second poll option was keeping its percentage stable throughout the ASV.
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GameFAQs Interview: Luster Soldier - http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/581295-/62338047
Submit any questions you have for me in the above topic
#32 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/18/2012 8:02:01 AM | message detail
...
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#33 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 4/18/2012 9:10:44 AM | message detail
At least Luster will still have ways to entertain himself whenever contests are finished for good.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#34 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/18/2012 8:40:03 PM | message detail
Polls for the next few days:

4/19/2012 - When do you usually play video games?
4/20/2012 - Why do you play video games?
4/21/2012 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
4/22/2012 - I don't know. Probably an original poll idea.
4/23/2012 - What influences you most in your game buying?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#35 | LeonhartFour | Posted 4/20/2012 2:16:39 PM | message detail
...!
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"Stay with me until the end. Please."
"Not until the end. Always."
#36 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/20/2012 5:05:52 PM | message detail
Poll trends for yesterday's poll:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AgBWiYjlMLwYdGtFTmNKRmlILXFKNE9IaXdOMXU5V2c&gid=2

"In the morning" had a terrible Power Hour and night vote and a good morning vote. It collapsed with the ASV, but started doing better with the SNV.

"In the middle of the day" had a strong board vote and morning vote and slightly above average Power Hour and night vote. It collapsed during the ASV and SNV.

"In the afternoon" had a slightly below average Power Hour and a terrible night vote and SNV. It did best during the morning vote and ASV.

"In the evening" sucked with the Power Hour and night vote, but it absolutely crushed the morning vote. It dropped off when the ASV kicked in, but it managed to have 2 strong hours near the end of the ASV before collapsing for the last 3 hours of the poll. "In the evening" did well in the evening time period, but that was only a 2 hour period during the ASV.

"Late at night" was strong during the Power Hour and night vote, but it was also very strong in the SNV as well. The last hour of the poll was its best hour overall. "Late at night" collapsed during the morning vote, but had a below average DSV and ASV.

"Overnight" only had an average performance during the Power Hour, but it did best during the night vote. Once the morning vote kicked in, it collapsed until the ASV could kick in. It was near the beginning of the ASV that its percentage finally stabilized and remained that way for the rest of the poll.


We had this poll back in 2010 as well and I tracked poll updates for that poll as well. The 2010 poll was on a weekend, though. The weekend poll had less extreme trends. "In the evening" only had a 5% difference between its best time period (early morning) and worst time period (night vote). On a weekday, "In the evening" had an 11% difference between its best time period and worst time period.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#37 | Safer_777 | Posted 4/21/2012 1:10:21 AM | message detail
So 2 out of 3 people notice things that others don't.You know that something doesn't seem right...
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#38 | pjbasis | Posted 4/21/2012 1:27:10 AM | message detail
Heh.

I picked the second option, if only because it gives you a way out in the "don't pay attention" part.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#39 | Haste_2 | Posted 4/21/2012 2:13:06 PM | message detail
So 2 out of 3 people notice things that others don't.You know that something doesn't seem right...

How about this poll:

"How smart are you compared to the average Poll of the Day voter?"
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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
#40 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 4/22/2012 2:20:40 AM | message detail

From: Haste_2 | #039
So 2 out of 3 people notice things that others don't.You know that something doesn't seem right...

How about this poll:

"How smart are you compared to the average Poll of the Day voter?"


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=3624

I have a feeling it'd be damn amusing.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#41 | pjbasis | Posted 4/23/2012 5:25:34 AM | message detail
What's the likelihood we get a 10th Anniversary Contest?

July 1st is only a little over a month away.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#42 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 4/23/2012 11:34:15 AM | message detail
Two months, you mean.

If we do get one, I can see it being announced no later than June 1, and even then it'd be a bit frantic to force in nominations and predictions in a month's time. Two months for it would be too long, though.

If we do end up with one, I'd expect it to be announced sometime in May, assuming a July 1 start of course.
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Current Let's Play: Legend of Mana
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3474994
#43 | Boudii | Posted 4/23/2012 4:23:52 PM | message detail
I don't think we will have a contest soon, next fall maybe .
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#44 | pjbasis | Posted 4/23/2012 4:47:20 PM | message detail
Ah yeah two months, weird.
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http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#45 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/24/2012 9:10:38 PM | message detail
Today's poll should have some interesting trends. The first poll option is definitely seems like it would have some extreme trend changes.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#46 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 4/25/2012 1:50:29 AM | message detail
So where's the "Screw the polls, give me a contest!" option?
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#47 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 4/26/2012 11:26:01 PM | message detail
Assuming success, what effect with Sony Smash Bros have on the character battle?
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We'll show her the power of a dream.
#48 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/26/2012 11:28:33 PM | message detail
I've never heard of this "Sony Smash Bros" before. Is that the actual name of a future Sony game, or are you making up some hypothetical game to encourage discussion on character strength in the next character battle?
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#49 | pjbasis | Posted 4/26/2012 11:44:28 PM | message detail
Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale was just announced.

It is a SSB-inspired game starring Sony characters.

It'll depend how popular it is. Sony doesn't have the rabid fanbase Nintendo does.
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SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#50 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 4/26/2012 11:55:34 PM | message detail
Thanks. It would have been better if TRE had referred to the game by its proper name of "Playstation All-Stars Battle Royale" instead of "Sony Smash Bros".

Not to mention that "Sony Smash Bros" and "Super Smash Bros" would both have the same abbreviation of SSB, easily causing confusion.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!