GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
From: creativename | #249 I'm just saying you're applying a double standard here. If you intend to adjust trainers based on that match, you'd better do it for every close match ever because that's what happens. It isn't done because it's "who cares" territory and it's never exactly definitive. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
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creativename,
stop being so passive-aggressive and just outright say "You people are
f***ing idiots for not agreeing what I am thinking." We all know that's what you're trying to imply with your words, and I know you're going to deny it, but there's no use in even pretending otherwise since Leonhart and everyone else is already calling you out on your bulls***, so just shut the f*** up and drop it. --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US) http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328 |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #1206 No, they weren't more likely to be bandwagoned against Mario/Bowser because the match was not close. Plus, Nintendo hierarchy anyway. From: -LusterSoldier- | #1206That's possible. The raw x-stats wouldn't be based off of the Trainers/Cloud match, while the adjusted ones would be. I'll probably make 3 sets of stats, each set just needs an extra column. Once I make the spreadsheet new stats are easy. It's making the spreadsheet that's the hard work :( From: KamikazePotato | #1203Congrats, you just described any close match. From 8am to 9am, Cloud/Seph got 53.72% of the vote. From 9am-10am, they got 53%. But the instant they threatened to take the lead, Pokemon starting 50/50ing them. Those aren't normal trends. The 8am-9am and 9am-10am periods should reflect who the winner of the "day vote" is going to be. [edit: Especially since in relative terms, Pokemon should normally be doing better in the morning vote against FF7 compared to the rest of the match] Going from 53%-54% during those hours to 50/50 the rest of the way, is not normal. Normal close matches do not have %age differences between the morning vote and the day vote to that staggering degree - especially when the match then proceeds to become almost trendless, a flat line for the rest of the day. This despite the two entities normally having very different trends - instead of the exaggerated trends we should have seen, the trends vanished. From: Not_Wylvane | #1210 Have a wonderful evening to you too. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
From: Not_Wylvane | #1252 Wooooow. Dude, chill. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename | Posted 12/20/2011 9:01:37 PM | message detail | quote | (edited) From 8am to 9am, Cloud/Seph got 53.72% of the vote. From 9am-10am, they got 53%. But the instant they threatened to take the lead, Pokemon starting 50/50ing them. Those aren't normal trends. The 8am-9am and 9am-10am periods should reflect who the winner of the "day vote" is going to be. [edit: Especially since in relative terms, Pokemon should normally be doing better in the morning vote against FF7 compared to the rest of the match] Going from 53%-54% during those hours to 50/50 the rest of the way, is not normal. Normal close matches do not have %age differences between the morning vote and the day vote to that staggering degree - especially when the match then proceeds to become almost trendless, a flat line for the rest of the day. This despite the two entities normally having very different trends - instead of the exaggerated trends we should have seen, the trends vanished. Pokemon isn't that great with the morning vote. It's better with the ASV than the morning vote. From 6:00 AM to 2:30 PM, the trends are dominated by the 26 and older age groups (going by the age poll trends). Pokemon isn't going to be that popular among people that are older than 26. Pokemon is generally something you have to get into prior to the age of 13 (when RBY came out in 1998), so there aren't very many Pokemon fans today who currently older than 26. As for why Pokemon started stalling Cloud when he threatened to take the lead, you could blame it on a diluted ASV, so there might have been some ASV voters that were voting in the morning. The other reason could possibly be the European ASV kicking in. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: creativename | #247 How can one even reasonably argue otherwise when looking at the match? I'm being called dogmatic for stating the obvious. That would be it. "There's no possible way I'm mistaken and how can you guys be so stupid for trying to argue with me about it?" It doesn't even matter if you're right or not. It still comes across as quite arrogant. --- http://img710.imageshack.us/img710/8516/whatisdesiresig.gif |
Come on people this is supposed to be a time of celebration. LINK IS GONNA WIN! (and ganon gets his first) --- "Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS" - Vormav |
I wonder what the post-contest poll will be. --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
If it's Mario/Sonic's chance tomorrow, it's on. --- http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3492/eponaharr.jpg Nominate E P O N A. |
If that was actually going to happen, I would imagine Bacon would have asked us to make match pictures for it by now. --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Well, we don't have any match pictures yet, so it's unlikely that we'll get another bonus match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Not getting a bonus match would be so sad... Link vs. Santa was awesome. --- I think I broke the LOL |
Well, the third place match is being considered the bonus match here, for all intents and purposes, I would say. I would imagine we should get a "What did you think of the contest?" type poll. --- "So cold. I am always by your side." "There ain't no gettin' off of this train we on!" |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #1255Pokemon isn't that great with the morning vote. But neither is FF7. And yet it was 53%-54%ing Pokemon during that time. There is no reason for FF7 to dominate the morning vote so thoroughly, against an entity whose morning vote should actually be better - in relative terms - than FF7's. Or at worst, they are both neutral at this time. Going from 53-54% during these two hours to 50/50 the rest of the way is waaay off from normal trends. %age shifts of that magnitude from those two hours to the rest of the poll should only happen in very extreme scenarios of trend-clashing from the two entrants. And the morning vote trends of FF7/Pokemon just don't clash like that. It's not like FF7 is a Mario Bros.-like morning vote monster, while Pokemon is horrid with the morning vote. From: LeonhartFour | #1257That would be it. No, that wouldn't be it. Please state some fact or logic that shows I am the one who is mistaken. Otherwise, your stance is simply one of baseless hubris - calling me things like dogmatic and stubborn and arrogant with no reasoning to counter anything I have stated. I am using reasoning and data. You are using personal labels. The Trainers from MvB being static to the Trainers for the FF7 match simply does not compute. One can't make it compute, because it simply doesn't work. Of all the people who have been taking a counter-stance to mine, Luster is literally the only one who has actually used facts. Everyone else is just being aggressive and uber-stubborn without using any real logic. I really do find these attitudes confusing. Anyway, once again, the Trainers are the #3 of the contest and would be in any rankings I make. Because they *won* the third place match - they are #3 by definition, at their peak strength. Which they clearly weren't at in the Mario vs. Bowser match - oh, and of course "You people are f***ing idiots for not agreeing what I am thinking." as Not_Wylvane so succinctly put it :P Thanks to him for summarizing, very kind of him to do so. I think some Pokemon fans here are hyper-sensitive to the notion of some "adjustment" that places them below a team they beat, when that's not the adjustment I'm talking about. It would be everyone else I'd be adjusting. My one and only interest is accuracy - accuracy to the best extent that is reasonably possible for us to achieve as a collective (red and Luster have been helpful in this). So the Pokemon fans can please just relax. From: LeonhartFour | #1304I would imagine we should get a "What did you think of the contest?" type poll. That's gonna get ugly... --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
From: creativename | #265 I already said this is irrelevant to whether you're being dogmatic and condescending or not. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Well, the third place match is being considered the bonus match here, for all intents and purposes, I would say. I would imagine we should get a "What did you think of the contest?" type poll. Yeah, probably... But at least that match was a real beast! --- I think I broke the LOL |
Probably some random poll, I don't think Allen is looking forward to our feedback on this disaster. --- ... |
From: creativename | #265 Pokemon's morning vote has never been all that strong, and FF7's has never been bad, largely because there's still a strong European presence at that time. FF7 gained on Link during most of the morning vote too. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
He
might do something akin to "Do you really think Link/Ganondorf is the
best rivalry ever?" He did that for the Villains Contest, if I recall. --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
I hope he does "Was this a bad contest?" and the only option is "YES, allow all fictional characters in next time." --- ~Zen |
Contest over. X-stat adjustment arguments? Ya, I think I'll take my leave. See you guys next year. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? |
LeonhartFour | Posted 12/20/2011 10:57:27 PM | message detail | quote He might do something akin to "Do you really think Link/Ganondorf is the best rivalry ever?" He did that for the Villains Contest, if I recall. He did something like that for the Series Contest too. creativename | Posted 12/20/2011 10:49:34 PM | message detail | quote | (edited) There is no reason for FF7 to dominate the morning vote so thoroughly, against an entity whose morning vote should actually be better - in relative terms - than FF7's. Or at worst, they are both neutral at this time. Going from 53-54% during these two hours to 50/50 the rest of the way is waaay off from normal trends. %age shifts of that magnitude from those two hours to the rest of the poll should only happen in very extreme scenarios of trend-clashing from the two entrants. And the morning vote trends of FF7/Pokemon just don't clash like that. It's not like FF7 is a Mario Bros.-like morning vote monster, while Pokemon is horrid with the morning vote. The Trainers were heavily frontloaded at the start of the match. Even more so because of the FF7 anti-votes. As strong as the Trainers were at the start of all their matches, their early vote is not strong enough to cause them to drop for the entire match. Only in very extreme cases such as L-Block in 2007 do you see a character that is so frontloaded that they never get a chance to stabilize before the match ends. Though the match against Mario/Bowser is the only match where the Trainers dropped for the entire match and never stabilized, which suggests they were bandwagoned at the start of the match. The bandwagon would have died out when everyone realized the Trainers had no chance against Mario/Bowser. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: LeonhartFour | #1306 What in the world? Of course it is relevant. One cannot be both dogmatic and reasonable and willing to listen to facts at the same time. It is impossible. I was willing to listen to facts when presented (by red and Luster). And I have no agenda but accuracy. Whether I was ever condescending, I don't know, I may well have been to some extent. I don't believe I ever said I wasn't, though I did take care to be as polite as I could. Perhaps some things I said were condescending simply because some people's stances were unreasonable. I am hardly going to apologize for that. If people were being deluded and I called them on it, that's not my problem. But not once was I stubborn or dogmatic. Calling me those things is incorrect. From: Lopen | #1309 Perhaps there's something to be said for this. Though I still find FF7 going from blowing the doors off at what should be a more or less neutral time frame, to suddenly going 50/50 the instant the lead was about to change, in a match that had the highest vote totals of the contest, which included an entrant known to be the biggest rallying force...and an entrant known to be the biggest magnet for anti-rallying...to be suspect to say the least. In terms of linearity, this match is not going to be reliable. Don't think anyone can with a straight face say that the Trainers from MvB were the same strength as the Trainers against FF7. FF7 brought out their best. MvB did not, if anything they were likely to be SFFed by MvB - MvB was maybe their worst possible opponent. Outside of things that the Trainers could themselves SFF, FF7 was their best possible opponent to bring out their max potential. From: -LusterSoldier- | #1353 I don't follow here, Luster - what does this have to do with what I was talking about? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
My
last post partially explains the reason why Cloud was dominating the
early part of the morning vote, before the Trainers started stalling
once the match became 50/50. The Trainers were heavily frontloaded at
the start of the match, so of course they'll continue dropping for quite
a long time. And Lopen also pointed the strong European influence
during the morning vote, which also factors into Cloud's strong morning
vote. As I would have expected with the morning vote, the Trainers were losing percentage in North America. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: creativename | #274 Again, I agree with the "suddenly going 50/50 the second the lead was about to change" sentiment but... you're going to be hard pressed to find any lead change that doesn't have this. Dante/Vergil vs Sora/Riku for instance, Dante is going 57% updates for almost two hours, then right when he hits 0 Sora stonewalls him for like an hour... Dante eventually breaks through, gets 100 up, then Sora comes back. It happens in every close match. It looks worse when it bridges into trends like the Pokemon match did, but that's just coincidence. I just think that making an adjustment there is a double standard, because yeah, unless one guy rolls over the 0 point like a mack truck during the ASV the stall always happens. Rally, stuffing, whatever, it's always there. Shouldn't affect the x-stats. Further Pokemon has always stood up very well against SFF, so the idea of Mario not SFFing it to a significant degree certainly isn't that strange. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: Lopen | #276 Pretty sure it didn't happen in Sonic/Crono! (LOL Crono) --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
It never happened in FFX/MM from last year, if I remember correctly. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Sonic mack truck'd him during the ASV Chief doesn't usually take that crap either But low vote intake or swing lead changes it happens all the time --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Again,
I agree with the "suddenly going 50/50 the second the lead was about to
change" sentiment but... you're going to be hard pressed to find any
lead change that doesn't have this. Dante/Vergil vs Sora/Riku for
instance, Dante is going 57% updates for almost two hours, then right
when he hits 0 Sora stonewalls him for like an hour... Dante eventually
breaks through, gets 100 up, then Sora comes back. It happens in every close match. It looks worse when it bridges into trends like the Pokemon match did, but that's just coincidence. I just think that making an adjustment there is a double standard, because yeah, unless one guy rolls over the 0 point like a mack truck during the ASV the stall always happens. Rally, stuffing, whatever, it's always there. Shouldn't affect the x-stats. I disagree with this. It doesn't happen more than random variation and some rallying would make it happen. For it to last more than a few updates, the rallying needs to be extensive, and in this case, it lasted pretty much half the match. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
Not at all, it's the journey, not the destination 0% 0 No, it's a popularity contest, and he's the most popular 0% 0 Maybe, as long as he gets to face the winner in a bonus battle 0% 0 Yes, it ruins the whole contest if he wins every time 0% 0 While you're at it, get rid of Cloud, and maybe even Mario 100% 1 TOTAL VOTES 1 --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
not too surprised about the poll --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Congrats to SuperNiceDog for winning the guru contest. |
nice poll --- ... |
From: -LusterSoldier- | #1355 I still don't follow - being front-loaded doesn't mean those votes are vampired from some other time segment, it just means you're strong in the early vote. From: Lopen | #1356 Well yes, but this happened for 14 hours! O_o That simply does not happen - especially when as I said, the two entities should have significant trend differences over those 14 hours normally. Instead of normal FF7 vs. Pokemon trends, we just saw a near constant stall for 14 hours. From: Lopen | #1356 People are of course free to ignore any stats they disapprove of. And I would post three sets anyway - raw, adjusted based on taking Trainers/FF7 at face value, and adjusted based on adjusting that match. Right now based on what red and Luster have said, I'd probably go with FF7 with 51.5%, so a very minor adjustment - it would take Link going from indirectly scoring 53% on Mario vs. Bowser to scoring about 54.3%. Which ironically actually lines up almost exactly with the series contest Zelda vs. Mario Bros. indirect results! --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
Vote Accepted Not at all, it's the journey, not the destination 30% 3 No, it's a popularity contest, and he's the most popular 10% 1 Maybe, as long as he gets to face the winner in a bonus battle 0% 0 Yes, it ruins the whole contest if he wins every time 20% 2 While you're at it, get rid of Cloud, and maybe even Mario 40% 4 TOTAL VOTES 10 --- Every Supernicedog has its day. |
Oh boy. Predicting "no" wins this once the board vote ends. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
I was the first vote for "Maybe, as long as he gets to face the winner...". Hmm. --- Who knew the Rivalry Rumble would be so predictable? SuperNiceDog, that's who. |
LOL Cloud getting anti-voted in this poll too --- SuperNiceDog also has the right of way. http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/7760/222bj.jpg |
lol Cloud --- It will launch for $350 with some Wii Sports s***. I bet my life on it. Damn, that KoolAid guy is awesome - NGamer64 |
From: LeonhartFour | #288 FFVII always wins. YES REMOVE CLOUD AND MARIO Sephiroth reigns! --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v712/ExTha/10and14.jpg "What about the lion from Lion King?" - SuperNiceDog |
Poor
Cloud. The anti-voters have no mercy. It's not enough for him to lose
every year, now they want to remove him from the contest. --- 2002 Link, 2003 Cloud, 2004 Link, 2005 Link, 2006 Link, 2008 Link, 2010 Link, 2011 Cloud. Link 6, Cloud 2 |
From: ExThaNemesis | #290 SNAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKE --- SuperNiceDog bested me in the Guru, fair and square: http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Not at all, it's the journey, not the destination 12.33% 9 No, it's a popularity contest, and he's the most popular 20.55% 15 Maybe, as long as he gets to face the winner in a bonus battle 12.33% 9 Yes, it ruins the whole contest if he wins every time 21.92% 16 While you're at it, get rid of Cloud, and maybe even Mario 32.88% 24 TOTAL VOTES 73 --- Yoblazer: http://i43.tinypic.com/25z1non.jpg Watch and you'll see... SuperNiceDog own me... in the Guru! |
lol 5-ways --- Red vs. Blue what is even special about this. -ZFS here's a guy that doesn't get it! No desire to be the very best! -SHINE GET 64 |
Oh Cloud. --- Who knew the Rivalry Rumble would be so predictable? SuperNiceDog, that's who. |
I would have thought that maybe would be doing much better. |
From: ExThaNemesis | #1410 You mean Snake or Samus reigns... --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
I wonder if this poll will actually do anything for future contests based on whatever wins --- http://raptr.com/badge/cf898f37d9c30ef120ada6c35e636ad3/fs.png http://myanimelist.net/signature/RyanSaotome.png |
I really wish Mario wasn't included in the last option since it's the best option. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 |
people who keep voting Link will say "no" obviously this poll is kind of pointless --- ... |
