GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1041
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EW70tM3J5UQ Twenty-five years... of magic. =) ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
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The final battle has begin - you can no longer make a pick. --- Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static. There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic. |
This is what happens when you try to dedicate a topic to Ganondorf. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
Where is that LAW pic? --- Black: 3310-7431-2094 |
A close Link win would be the worst. Link needs to either win in the most ridiculous fashion possible or somehow find a way to lose. This just isn't fun at all! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
The updater updated like right after I posted that. Oh well. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
Wtf is wrong with Canada Link is at 58% there --- Starcraft is my life, so without it I wouldn't exist. - Artosis |
Linkondorf > Mowser, 64.00%-64.99% LOL ME --- "Claire likes to say 'You can be part of the problem, or part of the solution.' But I happen to believe you can be both." - Phil Dunphy |
From: JJH777 | #007 Yeah, should be 75% tbqh. Canada is well known for their hatred of Italians and love of faeries. --- http://i113.photobucket.com/albums/n231/sihp/waluigi.gif |
SabrielAbhorsen posted... The final battle has begin - you can no longer make a pick. All your base are belong to us. |
I should go talk to the GameFOX people about getting a "This topic hit 500, do you still want to quickpost" message. --- :X |
Come on Link, please bury this match. Bury it utterly and completely so I can start celebrating my ~perfection~ *refreshes page* YES --- Official ~Trendsetter~ of Board 8 |
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
And there it goes. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
'welp' --- Fight like dragons, have no fear, swords are made of STEEEEEEEEL~ |
Damn you Link --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
huzzah the status quo has prevailed again and the future refused to change the miracle never happen --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
So I ultimately put down everything on Link 62%, what do you got? --- When you've got a pretty-boy monkey on your back constantly calling you a puppet, you hardly want to seem like you're happy to be used. - DSakaCharanJ |
From: XIII_rocks | #012 I wouldn't call a straight pick perfection! I would, however, put it closer to perfection that a stupid 62-62.99% gamble. Derp. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
From: MarquessLaus | #018 I put one point on the straight pick --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
From: MarquessLaus | #018 The exact same thing. gg, we lost. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
From: Solfadore | #021 Not yet you haven't. --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
Ulti, are you going to start your post-contest analysis later today? |
MarquessLaus posted... So I ultimately put down everything on Link 62%, what do you got? I bet all 60600 of my points on Straight Link, just for the fun of it. |
A PCA for this rubbish? Should be a great read. :) --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Updater is still borked. Looks like I'll have to manually call the updater for this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
From: Solfadore | #019 It's perfection by the rules laid down early in the contest this side crap is just that, side crap. picking matches correctly is what matters. ... <_< --- http://img806.imageshack.us/img806/7351/xiiirocks.jpg |
Put Link to be held under 60% but still win. Also: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8nCEDyGHKk --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
From: _Regaro_ | #022 Link barely edges out 59/60, I fear. He needed to pull a reasonably strong performance, and he's not laying down the SFF killing I expected him to make. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
I had Link with 55-60%. My odds are looking decent here. --- MMBN style fighting game made by me in the link below! http://sandbox.yoyogames.com/games/184947-b8bn |
The
updater is working fine. Link/Mario's poll number is just one before
Cloud/Seph. Unless I guess that's you doing it. In which case carry
on. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I love the CD-I Link/Ganon Mario/Bowser picture for the poll. Never thought I would see pictures of them from those CD-I games! Cool. The picture is missing King Harkinian, though, and his dinner. |
Lopen | Posted 12/20/2011 12:26:59 AM | message detail | quote | (edited) The updater is working fine. Link/Mario's poll number is just one before Cloud/Seph. Unless I guess that's you doing it. In which case carry on. I know that. That's the one I checked out and I noticed it wasn't updating on its own, so I had to manually trigger an update. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
MarquessLaus posted... So I ultimately put down everything on Link 62%, what do you got? I've got it all on Link 60-65%. I probably won't be winning the contest even if I am right, but I don't have a prize entry anyways --- This is my signature. |
I have most of it bet on Link 50-59% lets goooooooo --- The return of...Me_Pie_Three |
Bet everything (107,100) on 63.00-63.99. --- A winner is Black Turtle. |
Does anyone know what the trends might be for this match? Is Link expected to do better during the day? --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
Link will do very well in the day. His ASV is better than Mario's, plus Mario is frontloaded in this match. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Mario
wins (relatively speaking) every block up to the morning vote, with the
morning vote and dead zone being his strongest (against Link). Link
wins everything after that point. I'm pretty sure that's how it usually
goes anyway. Someone can tell me why I'm wrong it'll be interesting
conversation. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
From: pyresword | #034 This. Come on. |
Eh. At this rate I think us folks that guessed greater than 60% are in trouble. Should have just gone with a straight pick rather than an oracle pick --- This is my signature. |
Link
is still unable to bring in 60%+ updates, and he'll need to do that on a
fairly regular basis just to have a chance of reaching 60%. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
Yeah 60-65% is pretty much dead in the water. Mario's frontloadedness didn't extend past the board vote I don't think. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
In
the 2010 Link/Mario match, Link gained another 2% after the end of the
first hour. If that holds up, Link might only end up around 57%, with
58% being very unlikely. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as BlAcK TuRtLe, Guru Champ! |
So this provs Mario enjoyed probably the greatest effect from the format. --- http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/pjbasis.png |
From: pjbasis | #046 I think the guy who went from struggling with Ocelot to struggling with Cloud takes that award lol --- Yoblazer: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2hd0dh1.jpg Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your world! |
Do
you think Link's bad performance might spring from the low votals? With
high votals, people just naturally flock to Link and he trumps
everything. Now, with very little people interested in that contest, we
are left with the few that are actually tired of seeing Link win all the
time. Would that explain why Mario is rocking (relatively speaking, of
course) the night vote so far? Under that theory, Link might regain some colours during the morning vote, when the casuals/kiddies wake up (casuals being immune by the 'anti-LAW' syndrome). I'm puzzled by the weird results that we have seen these last few days. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
Wouldn't Mario generally always win the night vote over Link? --- Currently Playing - StarCraft: Brood War |
Not by that much. --- When you have nothing to say, quote yourself ~ Solfadore |
