GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1039
Wow, I have three seperate alts with seperate brackets on the leaderboard. My main, and also AcidEnema and Richard__Sharpe. My bad to anybody kept off by that! --- Chex Warrior (Chex Quest) for CB2011 |
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So, are any perfects going to actually bite on Mario > Link? --- Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy IV (FF2US) http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3445328 |
Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage? --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
huh, seven people banked so just one perfect went with the upset --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
From: Not_Wylvane | #147 nah, Link didn't drop this much until like 2AM |
Love the fact Hitmonlee is putting up dukes against Cloud --- Nice catch BlAcK TuRtLe. But too bad your ass got SAAAAAAAAAAACKED.*tackles* |
-LusterSoldier- posted... The bracket and the stats for this contest haven't updated yet. Also, it still says "(1) Link vs. Ganondorf over (1) Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth (In Progress)" on my battle bracket page. Yeah, I couldn't pick my characters for this battle. --- http://i56.tinypic.com/25stpxf.gif http://www.glogster.com/media/1/2/42/74/2427453.jpg |
Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage? That's what happens when their current vote intake is still above 50% of the votes but before the total percentage of votes they currently have. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
I imagine the 7 that banked will be more likely to take a risk tomorrow. Doubt those 7 would have banked without knowing about the "oracle-style" final battle pick. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1045474.gif |
So,
based on the first five minutes, HERE IS WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT TO SEE
TOMORROW FOR MARIO VS. LINK! Change your Oracles and Battle Challenges
accordingly! FINAL X-STATS! Mario vs. Bowser – 50.00% Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 44.36% Link vs. Ganondorf – 43.39% Cloud Strife vs. Sephiroth – 36.22% Ryu vs. Ken Masters – 35.45% Samus Aran vs. Ridley – 34.98% Mega Man X vs. Zero – 33.34% Big Boss vs. The Boss – 32.55% Sub-Zero vs. Scorpion – 31.54% Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Dr. Robotnik – 29.42% Chris Redfield vs. Albert Wesker – 28.26% Solid Snake vs. Liquid Snake – 27.44% Terra Branford vs. Kefka Palazzo – 27.43% Tidus vs. Jecht – 26.28% Fox McCloud vs. Wolf O’Donnell – 24.83% Crono vs. Lavos – 22.63% Donkey Kong vs. K. Rool – 22.40% Kirby vs. Meta Knight – 22.24% Mega Man vs. Dr. Wily – 21.47% Jim Raynor vs. Sarah Kerrigan – 20.48% Luigi vs. Waluigi – 19.55% Ike vs. Black Knight – 19.53% Frog vs. Magus – 19.44% Yuna vs. Seymour Guado – 19.40% Jill Valentine vs. Nemesis – 18.47% Ezio Auditore da Firenze vs. Rodrigo Borgia – 17.83% Pac-Man vs. Blinky – 17.76% Cecil Harvey vs. Golbez – 17.49% Squall Leonhart vs. Seifer Almasy – 17.28% Sora vs. Riku – 17.03% Lloyd Irving vs. Kratos Aurion – 16.92% Leon Kennedy vs. Ada Wong – 16.89% Phoenix Wright vs. Miles Edgeworth – 16.84% Kratos vs. Zeus – 16.82% Dante vs. Vergil – 16.75% Raiden vs. Vamp – 15.95% Conker vs. The Great Mighty Poo – 15.85% Katherine vs. Catherine – 15.82% Bartz Klauser vs. Gilgamesh – 15.20% Earthworm Jim vs. Queen Slug-for-a-Butt – 14.64% Gordon Freeman vs. Dr. Breen – 14.63% Zidane Tribal vs. Kuja – 14.55% Ness vs. Giygas – 14.43% Commander Shepard vs. Saren Arterius – 14.29% Amaterasu vs. Orochi – 14.15% William B.J. Blazkowicz vs. Adolf Hitler – 13.56% The Kid vs. The Guy – 13.55% Captain Falcon vs. Black Shadow – 13.04% Ratchet vs. Dr. Nefarious – 13.02% Crash Bandicoot vs. Dr. Neo Cortex – 12.96% Arthas Menethil vs. Illidian – 12.76% Dan Hibiki vs. Sagat – 11.75% Vyse vs. Galcian – 11.70% Siegfried Schtauffen vs. Nightmare – 11.49% Guybrush Threepwood vs. LeChuck – 10.88% Meat Boy vs. Dr. Fetus – 10.30% Ramza Beoulve vs. Delita Hyral – 10.18% Banjo vs. Gruntilda – 9.67% Tom Nook vs. Crazy Redd – 9.31% Laharl vs. Mid-Boss – 9.10% Professor Layton vs. Don Paolo – 8.70% Sol Badguy vs. Ky Kiske – 5.83% --- http://i43.tinypic.com/dgwh0.gif http://www.majhost.com/gallery/atukam/OHWD/snownd.gif |
From: Team Rocket Elite | #158 Ok Because I saw people earlier in this very topic saying that the trainers were crashing and I thought the lead was still increasing so I was like wut --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
_Regaro_ posted... Am I going insane, or are the trainers gaining in vote differential but losing percentage? You may be going insane, but the rest of your statement holds true. It's entirely possible for them to keep gaining vote differential while losing percentage the entire time. Math is fun that way. For instance, if the final vote total were 22,700 to 22,000, the percentage would be 50.78 to 49.22. Larger vote differential, much smaller percentage differential. --- The fact that my story isn't plausible just proves that it's true. |
gained almost nothing there --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
Because I saw people earlier in this very topic saying that the trainers were crashing They are. The more your percentage intakes falls, the closer your opponent gets to making vote differential cuts. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
well if Cloud/Seph can stall the Trainers this early into the match, coming back from 500 or 600 votes isn't that hard --- http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 8th ~Today's prediction: Cloud / Seph - 51.18% |
Yeah, Cloud/Sephy may not be done yet. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
trainers second in the stats? I'm OK with this! --- "To be fair to Herman Cain, we can't all be as wise as Slowking when he's wearing the Shellder of knowledge. Look it up, b****es." - Jon Stewart |
Mario vs. Bowser – 50.00% Pokemon Trainer Red vs. Pokemon Trainer Blue – 44.36% Link vs. Ganondorf – 43.39% Glorious --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
Hmm, Cloud/Seph might try to make a match of this. --- Praise the Black Turtle, Game of the Decade Guru Champ. (Well, I never promised creativity, did I?!) |
Actually
looking at the trends for the updates we have had so far and
geolocation trends this match is similar to Linkdorf/Cloudroth. Let's
see if this holds. --- Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static. There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic. |
Ryu/Ken > Samus/Ridley Big Boss > Solid Snake these are good stats --- "When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it." |
Quick someone compare this to Sephiroth/Missingno --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
From: SabrielAbhorsen | #170 No, it really isn't. Trainers have dropped over 2% from their peak already. Link didn't do that until more than 3 hours into the match. |
Xuxon posted... From: SabrielAbhorsen | #170 Actually looking at the trends for the updates we have had so far and geolocation trends this match is similar to Linkdorf/Cloudroth. Let's see if this holds. No, it really isn't. Trainers have dropped over 2% from their peak already. Link didn't do that until more than 3 hours into the match. We'll see. --- Inter-planetary-mega-stellar-hydro-static. There's no gravity between us. Our love is automatic. |
From: charmander6000 | #172 Red/Blue have a bigger lead 40 minutes into the poll than Missingno did. Sephy was at 52% So this projects to an easy Trainers win still. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." |
Well, an easy Trainers lead after 12 hours anyway. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." |
While
Cloud/Sephiroth should make some nice gains at night the trainers will
have the day to increase and based on our old votes this is almost like a
1200 vote lead. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
We'll
see? All I said was what has happened so far. For all I know it was a
randomly weird start and the Trainers will stall at 57.5% for the next
hour and a half. |
So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Cloud? No matter what the formula says, that's absurd. --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
From: _Regaro_ | #180 What? If Trainers win here, transitive property puts Mario > Cloud. --- http://img.imgcake.com/nio/51alecpngpa.png -Nio |
From: _Regaro_ | #180 It projects Mario = Link, not Cloud. --- http://i.imgur.com/fe05x.png http://i.imgur.com/stNJf.png |
So does somebody want to explain to me how Trainers getting 53% here projects Mario = Link? Link got 58% on Cloud, Mario got 55% on Red therefore Red needs about 53% on Cloud for Mario to reach Link. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
From: AlecTrevelyan006 | #181 From: LeonhartFour | #182 Yeah I'm a moron and meant to say that but typed without thinking <_< --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
aaaaand we have a cut! --- thelefty for analysis crew 2008 imo -tranny I have a third degree burn in flame-o-nomics -Sir Chris |
There's the first cut night won't be pretty --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
oh %&*$ --- Red vs. Blue what is even special about this. -ZFS here's a guy that doesn't get it! No desire to be the very best! -SHINE GET 64 |
From: charmander6000 | #183 Oh It did end at 55% Without checking I thought it ended at about 53% or so Excellent job me <_< --- http://img.imgcake.com/RegaroUlquiorrapngse.png |
That was odd. Wasn't expecting a cut for a good while. --- Will not remove this line of my signature until the Seahawks, Jazz or Rockies win a title (Started 5-16-09) This line reserved for the Guru winner (TBD) |
whoa --- http://i42.tinypic.com/11jol1t.gif Oracle Challenge ~ Rank: 8th ~Today's prediction: Cloud / Seph - 51.18% |
Holy christ what on earth is happening --- http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v712/ExTha/10and14.jpg "I was wrong." - SmartMuffin |
Mario/Bowser over Link/Ganon could be the best thing ever. --- "When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it." |
Mario/Bowser over Link/Ganon could be the best thing ever. It will be the best thing ever. --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
LOL
x-stat projections from the first five minutes of a match with Pokémon
in it? Might as well just set them 50-50 and post that. --- "Ovelia ... SPOILERS IN THE KEYWORDS WOOPS" - Vormav |
From: ZFS | #193 Yep. I really don't see any of the perfect battlers having the balls to pick it, it'd completely shake up the leaderboard...wouldn't save the contest but it'd be very awesome. --- http://i48.tinypic.com/1045474.gif |
It
might save the contest for me! Mario/Bowser is like a top 5 rivalry in
this contest, and seeing Mario top ZELDA legitimately would be 'too
good.' --- "When I was a young man, I had liberty, but I did not see it. I had time, but I did not know it." |
From: IngmarBirdman | #195 Well, it was just for laughs. 50/50 still projects out very well for Mario/Bowser, too, although it doesn't project a win. --- http://www.miscupload.com/upload/452457071929141623517416.gif |
Score-Brackets-% Right 144----2------------50.00 143----5------------100.00 142----3------------100.00 141----2------------100.00 140----4------------100.00 139----11----------72.73 138----14----------92.86 137----6------------83.33 136----179--------98.88 135----33----------81.82 134----26----------92.31 133----34----------67.65 132----55----------83.64 131----100--------87.00 130----92----------84.78 129----102--------82.35 128----113--------78.76 127----119--------72.27 126----349--------89.97 125----167--------68.26 124----162--------75.93 123----191--------75.39 122----209--------73.68 121----218--------67.43 120----242--------69.83 119----298--------69.46 118----271--------69.00 117----290--------70.00 116----293--------64.51 115----326--------69.33 114----295--------64.41 113----317--------62.78 112----308--------64.29 111----362--------61.88 110----354--------65.25 109----332--------65.06 108----357--------64.99 107----327--------58.41 106----349--------63.04 105----328--------62.20 104----311--------61.09 103----336--------57.14 102----321--------55.76 101----293--------57.34 100----269--------59.85 99------226--------56.64 98------281--------51.60 97------231--------58.87 96------219--------56.62 95------222--------50.45 94------196--------48.98 93------198--------51.01 92------188--------48.40 91------197--------51.78 90------158--------49.37 89------172--------47.09 88------153--------49.67 87------144--------50.69 86------160--------45.63 85------159--------42.77 84------125--------40.80 83------141--------35.46 82------131--------41.98 81------137--------35.77 80------138--------38.41 79------136--------36.03 78------122--------36.89 77------132--------43.94 76------117--------34.19 75------128--------32.03 74------110--------31.82 73------106--------30.19 72------82----------28.05 71------83----------31.33 70------82----------35.37 69------87----------29.89 68------89----------22.47 67------90----------33.33 66------81----------27.16 65------86----------16.28 64------78----------25.64 63------72----------13.89 62------74----------17.57 61------78----------24.36 60------72----------26.39 59------67----------10.45 58------74----------14.86 57------48----------18.75 56------58----------8.62 55------61----------16.39 54------56----------14.29 53------57----------8.77 52------58----------12.07 51------53----------7.55 50------52----------11.54 49------48----------6.25 48------51----------17.65 47------43----------16.28 46------34----------2.94 45------39----------7.69 44------35----------5.71 43------35----------5.71 42------49----------6.12 41------39----------2.56 38------36----------5.56 37------24----------4.17 36------16----------6.25 15------2------------50.00 Cloud is nearly able to get Link's prediction percentage below 50 but isn't quite able to do it. The top of the standings were heavily in favour of Link winning. 87% of the top 47 get the match right. It isn't until the -16 (128 points) that the prediction precentage regularly falls below 80. 7 people fell off the Top 50 and 6 of them had Cloud/Sephiroth winning the contest. Former first place KingLionel, pjbasis, Jobi1, Hitagi, MachoManSavage, Zicore and Lonewolf00B did not have Link vs Ganondorf winning the match. --- Pokemon VGC2011 US Nationals - 54th place Pokemon VGC2012 NW Regional - 16th place |
I'm on the road to Viridian City --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/Rivalry%20BOP.xls Rivalry Rumble: 117/160 Today: Cloud/Sephiroth |
